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[Diablos]

I was born during the Reagan revolution but don't you dare speak for me Rubio

 

[sc0la]

I think Jeb couldn't stomach the thought of being bullied by Trump on national TV again next week.

Y'all honestly think Blacks and Latinos are gonna vote for Rubio in a general?

Won't get the chance to. But no.

 

[Basileus777]

Jeb's voters and donors are going to go to Rubio, and combined they're going to beat Trump. And if we liberals are dumb enough to nominate Sanders, we're fucked.

It's still a 5 man race. Rubio won't be getting his one on one matchup with Trump for a while, if ever.

 

[Plinko]

As I type this, Marco Rubio leads Ted Cruz for second place in South Carolina by about half a percentage point, 22.4 percent to 21.8 percent. It looks as though the remaining areas to report are slightly more favorable for Rubio than Cruz, but it’s liable to be very close.

But while we’ll be here watching the results, I’m not sure how much it matters. As I wrote at the start of the night, the margins matter more than the order of finish. The implications for Rubio and Cruz would not be materially different if they’d flipped positions. True, Rubio will get a nice talking point if he finishes in second, and he’ll get more shade thrown at him from political pundits if he finishes in third. But Republican voters and party elites have more important things to consider than whether a candidate got 22.4 percent of the vote or 21.8 percent instead.

Finally, Nate admits it.

 

[Y2Kev]

SPOILER ALERT

 

[PopcornMegaphone]

You know after tonight Trump is going to be all over Rubio. I expect Trump to call him a robot, etc

 

[Tarkus]

Just donated to the new American century.

 

[Macho Madness]

President Nixon weighs in.

Hate Mrs. Clinton all you like, but do you remember what she did to Gowdy? Well, do you think Rubio is smarter than Gowdy?

https://twitter.com/dick_nixon/status/701228095123103744

 

[Teggy]

Well, no Hillary jab, I will give him credit for that.

 

[A Human Becoming]

You know after tonight Trump is going to be all over Rubio. I expect Trump to call him a robot, etc

Yep. He'll continue to leave Kasich alone, instead going hard on Cruz and Rubio.

 

[Plinko]

You know after tonight Trump is going to be all over Rubio. I expect Trump to call him a robot, etc

I still think Trump and Rubio have a deal that prevents this.

 

[Diablos]

Rubio talking like he won. Jesus.

Haley wants on the ticket so bad.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Holy crap Sanders was spending like a fiend in January:

Tale of tape for @BernieSanders for January:

Raised: $21.3 million
Spent: $34.9 million
Cash on hand as of 1/31: $14.7 million

 

[Teggy]

I still think Trump and Rubio have a deal that prevents this.

Well I mean, if Rubio starts threatening his leads, he's going to have to break that deal.

 

[Y2Kev]

Really fear Rubio. Ugh.

 

[PBY]

WAT IS HAPPENING SOMEONE FILL ME INPLS

 

[Kyosaiga]

Ya'll remember this?

lol

 

[Plinko]

WAT IS HAPPENING SOMEONE FILL ME INPLS

Trump crushed it.

Rubio eked out a meaningless 2nd place win.

GAF is freaking out again.

 

[FloydtheFathead]

Well I mean, if Rubio starts threatening his leads, he's going to have to break that deal.

Is he going to is the question.

 

[A Human Becoming]

Any site out there watching the Congressional District totals? Rubio could potentially win 1 and 4.

 

[BoboBrazil]

Even with 100% of Jeb's voters from tonight, Trump still beats Rubio. Bad news is the RNC are going to start dumping even more money into Rubio pacs and campaign.

 

[Macho Madness]

Holy crap Sanders was spending like a fiend in January:

Tale of tape for @BernieSanders for January:

Raised: $21.3 million
Spent: $34.9 million
Cash on hand as of 1/31: $14.7 million

Wow. But he did raise a ton after Iowa and New Hampshire too.

 

[RoKKeR]

Really fear Rubio. Ugh.

Same.

 

[Bronx-Man]

Wish we would quite with this Lana Del Ray gif

It's not going to be a thing

Let me call the wrasslin' thread, I think we can work something out.

 

[Plinko]

Even with 100% of Jeb's voters from tonight, Trump still beats Rubio. Bad news is the RNC are going to start dumping even more money into Rubio pacs and campaign.

As if they haven't already been helping with those debate crowds? A lot of good that money did for Jeb.

 

[Y2Kev]

I think Sanders is raising more than Hillary right now, but let's say they are raising in the same general universe. We keep hearing about how he is spending 3:1 or 2:1 on ads vs. her...she is probably hoarding cash for the general.

 

[ivysaur12]

I do fear Rubio the most. I also don't think he'll be the nominee. And I think Hillary could still beat him.

 

[Y2Kev]

I do fear Rubio the most. I also don't think he'll be the nominee. And I think Hillary could still beat him.

There's no one she can't be (like "can't"), but need to make it easy. lol.

 

[Holmes]

Holy crap Sanders was spending like a fiend in January:

Tale of tape for @BernieSanders for January:

Raised: $21.3 million
Spent: $34.9 million
Cash on hand as of 1/31: $14.7 million

He might be out sooner than I expect if his burn rate is ridiculously high.

 

[Plinko]

Somebody help me here:

How is Rubio going to beat Trump in any state in the south? Michigan polls have him up big. Where are Rubio's delegates coming from?

 

[johnsmith]

Did you guys already forget about Marco Roboto?

 

[BoboBrazil]

As if they haven't already been helping with those debate crowds? A lot of good that money did for Jeb.

Well they were split between Jeb and Rubio before. Now all of it will be pouring into Rubio. Rubio has already been running national ads on the cable networks that are well done showing his family and generally staying positive.

 

[B-Dubs]

I think Sanders is raising more than Hillary right now, but let's say they are raising in the same general universe. We keep hearing about how he is spending 3:1 or 2:1 on ads vs. her...she is probably hoarding cash for the general.

This is probably close to the truth. She's probably saving it so she can define the GOP nominee early like Obama did to Romney.

 

[Kyosaiga]

Voter on MSNBC just said she would vote for Hillary Clinton in the GE if Trump is the nominee.

 

[Officerrob]

Trumps win is massive, but the media narrative is to prop-up Rubio.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

Jeb out? There it is. I've seen some arguments that this is a perfect example of timing, ie knowing when to run and when not to run. Obama ran at the perfect time in 2007/2008, and regardless of whether he wins the nomination I think Rubio ran at the perfect time as well. But I'm not sure there ever was a "perfect" time for Jeb to run. But then again perhaps it would have been 1999/2000. If Jeb hadn't lost the Florida governor race in 1994 perhaps he could have been the choice in 2000, assuming his older brother decided not to run of course. But outside of that I really don't see a period in which a Jeb Bush run made sense.

The party has passed him, and he's not a good enough politician to adapt. On the flip side...man, Romney made a mistake by not running.

 

[Plinko]

Wasserman already saying "delegate math" will force Cruz out of the race. I don't see it happening.

 

[neurosisxeno]

Somebody help me here:

How is Rubio going to beat Trump in any state in the south? Michigan polls have him up big. Where are Rubio's delegates coming from?

With Jeb! out Rubio gains a bit. I imagine any Jeb! supporters will go to Rubio over Cruz (probably a 3:1 split) and almost none of them want Trump. Carson is almost certainly done after Nevada for the Republicans--I see no reason for him to stay in for Super Tuesday--and that might bump Cruz up a bit. Assuming Cruz has a bad day on Super Tuesday we could easily see a lot of states in a near 3-way tie on March 1st, that results in Marco coming out on top and within spitting distance of Trump.

 

[Basileus777]

Wasserman already saying "delegate math" will force Cruz out of the race. I don't see it happening.

That's not what he is saying. He's saying that Cruz can't win because of delegate math, not that he will drop out. And he's right.

 

[Officerrob]

Somebody help me here:

How is Rubio going to beat Trump in any state in the south? Michigan polls have him up big. Where are Rubio's delegates coming from?

The is the question the media doesn't want you to ask.

 

[Teggy]

Damn, Van Jones going ham on Trump. He better watch out.

 

[Crocodile]

Is he going to is the question.

He eventually tuned on Cruz after being buddy buddy with him for ages. I don't see why he wouldn't do the same to Rubio if he becomes a threat.

 

[Suikoguy]

Voter on MSNBC just said she would vote for Hillary Clinton in the GE if Trump is the nominee.

One of my PC Support clients who watches Fox News plans to vote for Hillary in the GE if Trump wins too.

Probably really difficult to get a good stat of the similar number until the candidates are decided.

 

[Plinko]

With Jeb! out Rubio gains a bit. I imagine any Jeb! supporters will go to Rubio over Cruz (probably a 3:1 split) and almost none of them want Trump. Carson is almost certainly done after Nevada for the Republicans--I see no reason for him to stay in for Super Tuesday--and that might bump Cruz up a bit. Assuming Cruz has a bad day on Super Tuesday we could easily see a lot of states in a near 3-way tie on March 1st, that results in Marco coming out on top and within spitting distance of Trump.

Except Carson's voters split evenly according to polls and Trump still beats Rubio tonight even if Rubio had all of Jeb's votes.

 

[Teggy]

Voter on MSNBC just said she would vote for Hillary Clinton in the GE if Trump is the nominee.

What kind of voter?

 

[BoboBrazil]

Trumps win is massive, but the media narrative is to prop-up Rubio.

Media loves Rubio. They've done the same thing in Iowa and NH.

 

[PopcornMegaphone]

Wasserman already saying "delegate math" will force Cruz out of the race. I don't see it happening.

Cruz doesn't seem to have the personality to drop out early

 

[Plinko]

That's not what he is saying. He's saying that Cruz can't win because of delegate math, not that he will drop out. And he's right.

His response on 538 was to this exact question:

"Dave, what would force Cruz out?"

 

[neurosisxeno]

Except Carson's voters split evenly according to polls and Trump still beats Rubio tonight even if Rubio had all of Jeb's votes.

My thinking is with less competition Rubio picks up more votes as the "sensible" candidate. With Jeb! out and Kasich on life support, he really is the establishment candidate. These early states are always a nightmare, but Super Tuesday ends up being the real test, and I like Rubio's odds.

 

[Black Republican]

Well....damn