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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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User 406

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I guess we'll never see what pixel Jeb, Kasich, and Carson look like.

21cd7e7b6bc1893c23a2e2faad0e9239.jpg
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
And then clarified afterward that he didn't mean that Cruz would drop out.

He says he thinks it is Rubio v. Trump "regardless of what Cruz does," which makes zero sense if Cruz stays in the race. He still siphons those votes.
 
With Jeb's votes Rubio doesn't beat Trump. But he does with Kasich's too. I think Kasich will be heavily pressured to drop out by the establishment to allow Rubio the space to actually take a win.
 

Teggy

Member
Every single candidate says they made history in their speech...

Only .2 percentage points between Rubio/Cruz with 93.7%
 
If you look at it by county, Rubio + Jeb > Trump or close to him in several of them, similarly Rubio + Kasich. Without those two, he would have taken the overall. So I could see it getting competitive as more players drop.

But it might be too late.

And that probably also relies on Cruz staying in.
 
He says he thinks it is Rubio v. Trump "regardless of what Cruz does," which makes zero sense if Cruz stays in the race. He still siphons those votes.
He thinks those two are the only two candidates that could win, Cruz will remain in the race as a spoiler. Or that's how I interpreted it.
 

Teggy

Member
Or, Ted, perhaps it will be decided by Obama and the Senate if they actually do their job?

And Ted just called Hillary a Socialist. And said that they would get rid of the 2nd Amendment. Keep being a big fat dick Ted.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/who-gains-the-most-when-the-gop-field-shrinks

Jeb drops:

Only 19% of Jeb's voters go to Rubio. Kasich gets 16%, which likely prolongs his stay in the race. Trump gets 11%.

Carson drops:

Cruz gets 24% of Carson's voters, Trump gets 22%. Rubio gets 16%.

Cruz drops:

If Cruz drops, Rubio gets 33% and Trump gets 26%.

I have to be honest here--I'm still not seeing these situations overwhelmingly benefit Rubio.
 
Cruz is the conditional making a Rubio win possible, it's the only way Trump stays within striking distance. We talk about giving Rubio all of the Jeb/Kasich votes, but what happens when Carson drops out and Trump gets half or more? Suddenly it's out of reach for Rubio despite absorbing all the establishment. And if Cruz did drop out, well, Trump becomes unassailable. The anti-establishment vote is the majority.
 
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