Bill, Hillary, Sanders and Obama will be campaigning for democrats in the GE.
And polls have better favorability among both candidates among democrats compared to 2008, between supporters feelings on the 'opposite' side
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada
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Bill, Hillary, Sanders and Obama will be campaigning for democrats in the GE.
And polls have better favorability among both candidates among democrats compared to 2008, between supporters feelings on the 'opposite' side
Macho Madness
Member
You forgot about Republican Nominee Donald Trump.
Veritigo_X
Member
Manmademan
Member
I wouldn't really read anything into increased republican turnout either vs. 2012.
The 2012 primary at this point was Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum. One guy no one wanted to vote for and three joke candidates.
Those four weren't inspiring anybody. Trump, Cruz, OR Rubio would have wiped the floor with all of them.
Chezzymann
Member
Yeah, I think Trump actually has a much bigger shot at winning the whole thing than people think. Voter turnout on the republican side is setting record numbers, while the democratic side is much lower. If this holds true in the general, we could be seeing a large shift to the right.
I think right now this whole 'hillarys gonna win anyways' mentality is the biggest danger for the democrats' as it results in a lack of enthusiasm, compared to the republican side that is filled with anger and fear (for the wrong reasons in my opinion though) that seems to really be motivating them to get out and vote,
I think right now this whole 'hillarys gonna win anyways' mentality is the biggest danger for the democrats' as it results in a lack of enthusiasm, compared to the republican side that is filled with anger and fear (for the wrong reasons in my opinion though) that seems to really be motivating them to get out and vote,
RustyNails
Member
Bummer that Jimmy Carter does not politick anymore
I guess it's fine that he has earned his retirement to live in peace. But imagine two former, beloved POTUSes including the current one speaking one after another at DNC.Macho Madness
Member
I think this convention would have been a good place for Beau to speak. It's really too bad about him.
Manmademan
Member
not really.
see the above. the 2012 republican primary simply wasn't competitive and the GOP fielded bad candidates.
outside of the berniebros, there's still a sense that Clinton is inevitable here. 2008 was record breaking, there was no way 2016 was going to hit those peaks without another Obama running- and candidates like that are one in a generation, at best.
General election turnout on the democratic side will be more than fine- especially with the supreme court narrative picking up steam and republicans vowing to obstruct until they can get a president who will nominate another Scalia to the bench. NOBODY thinks this is a good thing and will sit this one out in the general.
I think things will be okay on turnout for the Dems. While Clinton may not inspire a huge turnout, I'd say she beats Trump by enough that she can take a bit of a hit there and still win, and I don't see Rubio inspiring a particularly significant improvement on base turnout over Romney.
I can't wait till Obama start's campaigning for Hilldawg.
And the convention, you'll have the President, Slick Willy, Michelle Obama, Deval Patrick, Julian Castro, Joe Biden, etc.
And remember Bill's amazing 2012 speech? Now imagine Obama doing it because he has no more campaigns to run.
And the convention, you'll have the President, Slick Willy, Michelle Obama, Deval Patrick, Julian Castro, Joe Biden, etc.
And remember Bill's amazing 2012 speech? Now imagine Obama doing it because he has no more campaigns to run.
Macho Madness
Member
You know how they say not to take polls in the primary and apply them to the general election? The same could be applied here. You just don't know. Could it be a bad sign that there's lower turnout? Yes. Whether it does mean anything, no one knows. There's too many variables to make any sense out of it.
Also everyone sitting mostly on the sidelines would get involved in the GE
We did some analysis before the primaries really started, and the other external factors favor a GOP win this election. Now, obviously, Trump has changed things, but if Rubio wins the nomination - I'd have to go with a GOP win rather than a Democrat win. The state legislature / governor thing is definitely correlative in the past, and Clinton has a pretty defined voter ceiling. Scalia's death does have everyone out in force, but the GOP has much more to lose, and if Obama does get a centrist / liberal appointed before the election, I fear the galvanizing effect for GOP turnout will be yuuuuuuuuuuge.
That said...I hate, hate, HATE this thing that SCOTUS is running the country because Congress / the President are freaking locked up with each other and Congress isn't doing it's job. Gay marriage / abortion being decided by SCOTUS scares me because it can be reversed much easier now...and then what?
Obama's staff is already working on the speech.
Friend on staff says it will be the best speech he has ever given (I think she's being hyperbolic, tho). But I know he has it in him.
Manmademan
Member
Haha yeah, I just really don't see that map existing at all.
Box of Kittens
Banned
I think there are reasons to be concerned about the turnout numbers, but to some extent it's to be expected. The general narrative has been that the Democratic primary is Clinton's to lose (only somewhat recently changing to Clinton-Sanders horse race) while the narrative on the Republican side has been of a more wide open race. That's bound to lead to more interest on the Republican side than the Democratic side.
Now I do think there is a genuine enthusiasm gap that should benefit the Republicans come November, but not an insurmountable one.
Now I do think there is a genuine enthusiasm gap that should benefit the Republicans come November, but not an insurmountable one.
Yoda
Member
It's also beating 2008. The deltas are in the 5 digit range which is giant for a primary.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
Swing college educated whites by +6% towards Republicans and they win. It'd be hard to pull off, but it has happened before (1984). As pathetic as it is long-term, it makes more sense than courting the hispanic vote, which requires a giant swing for that push them over the edge.
And I guess the media interest has been almost entirely on the Republican side.
Okay, I feel better guys.
Good, it is far too early to start diablosing about November. And you are too beautiful to worry
It exists - but it basically boils down to a few things
1) Black voter turnout drops from 66 to pre Obama levels of 60% (expect this to happen barring something big happening)
2) Non college white turnout goes from 57%to 62%, and moves from 62% R to 65% R
(Based on the % increases at the GOP primaries, the 5% jump is what would be expected for Trump)
3) Latino turnout is mostly concentrated in states that are fiercely R or fiercely D, so increased turnout does not help Dems very much
4) College white voters break 2% more towards Trump
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
The link is a really cool way to model the election. Basically, if 4) happens, Trump wins. 1 and 2 are currently what should happen based on the primary turnout and voting.
Macho Madness
Member
2008 was after 8 years of GW, and even a lot of Republicans were tired of him. You're not seeing the same thing with Obama now.
Tarkus
Member
You're not crazy, you're exactly right. And there are far too many people who dislike Bernie's revolution for him to be a legitimate threat.
Macho Madness
Member
I'm so glad we've now all resigned to Fabulous President Trump because primary numbers are way up in the Republican primary after having a Democratic president for 8 years.
Good, it is far too early to start diablosing about November. And you are too beautiful to worry
I saw Ivy's twitter picture and 100% concur with the "too beautiful to worry" aspect.
EDIT: Before folks get too worked up, I'll point out that I am totally a "Trump is doing this for the Clintons and to destroy the unholy alliance that is the modern GOP" conspiracy theorist. Soooooooo keep that in mind.
Aaron Strife
Banned
She's one of the most popular Democratic politicians (among Democrats) alive and she's likely facing Donald Trump. I don't think base turnout will be an issue. Maybe it won't be as high as it was under Obama.
Remember in 2012 when everyone thought minorities wouldn't show because they were supposedly so disappointed in Obama? Yeah that panned out.
Neither candidate is getting people to go out and vote. Dem turnout is down all around.
Basileus777
Member
2 and 4 aren't very plausible with Trump as the candidate. 5% is a huge bump and college educated whites don't like Trump even within the Republican party.
Oh, a 6% swing with one of Trump's worst demographics, that's all? Trump's more likely to depress turnout among college educated whites than earn a larger share of them than Romney.
If you think that primary turnout and voting is representative of GE turnout (and the evidence is..mixed on this) - then 2 is currently on pace to happen.
4 is the big one that Trump has to magically pull off.
His real way to pull it off is more based on how hard Clinton goes in on the racial card during the primary, and how savvy Trump is at using it to coalesce a little more white support in moderate states. It is part of my worry on HRC going all in on the race card against Sanders - the issue is that even a massive Latino boost (+10 turnout AND +10 shift towards Dem) does jack-all electorally (due to the population distribution), and it's hard to see her getting better AA numbers than Obama.
I can see a path to him doing that, but I wouldn't be super confident in it yet. But I am done under-estimating Trump in general.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Yes, the guy whose ethos is based upon anti-intellectualism (along with racism and greed) will attract college educated whites.
Manmademan
Member
Also notable is that minorities both blacks and latinos do not like Trump at ALL, and his presence in the race will drive turnout. People are frothing at the mouth to vote against Trump.
Combine that with Black Voters liking Bill and Hillary quite a bit, Obama likely to be stumping in black areas this year, and black voter participation dropping to pre-obama levels is fantasy. You expect Hillary to be getting John Kerry levels of participation this year? not happening,
Hillary doesn't have to say a damn thing. she has the nomination wrapped up March 1st unless something completely ridiculous happens prior to super tuesday. It is FAR more likely Trump says something stupid to drive democratic turnout than Hillary "pulling a race card" (whatever this is) and getting racists riled up.
Don't underestimate how anti-intellectual college kids can be.
Macho Madness
Member
People like to mention the split between Hillary and Sanders, but only now is Trump reaching the point where about 50% of Republican primary voters would feel comfortable voting for him. That should be worrying for them.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
It's really hard for me to see a guy who is so proudly anti technology and who embraces climate change denial so much being embraced at all. What college educated white dude is going to not be embarrassed to vote for someone who wants to "shut down parts of the internet where ISIS is operating" or who thinks "Global Warming is a hoax created by the Chinese to help Chinese manufacturing"?
We don't need black turnout to be higher uniformly - only in certain districts of certain states. I'm pretty confident that Obama can help us approach that level.. maybe not 2012 levels, but close enough.
And Hispanic turnout with Trump on the ticket will take care of itself. Nevada and Colorado were already trending leftward; an uptick in Hispanic turnout should carry them.
I still think that if Trump's the nominee, Hillary will end-up romping with female voters.
And Hispanic turnout with Trump on the ticket will take care of itself. Nevada and Colorado were already trending leftward; an uptick in Hispanic turnout should carry them.
I still think that if Trump's the nominee, Hillary will end-up romping with female voters.
Basileus777
Member
Well we don't need to take a shot in the dark, even within the Republican party college educated whites are Trump's worst demographic and they tend to have high unfavorables towards him. It's a weaknesses of his, not something he will be able to harness to drive a historic swing in his favor.
Yeah, Hillary is well positioned to minimize losses with black voters where they matter most. If Bernie were the nominee I'd be worried, but not with Clinton.
Veritigo_X
Member
Yup. I was just talking with one of my friends about this. He's still in college and says that the "frat bro crowd" is firmly in the Trump camp. It basically boils down to wanting to piss off people they see as being smart. Fun times ahead.
Manmademan
Member
Also florida, with the mass influx of puerto ricans migrating to the state in the wake of PR's economic meltdown.
Chezzymann
Member
Either way a precedent will be set at election time. We'll either have the first Orange president, the first Female president, the first Android president, the first Canadian president, or the first Communist president
I believe that Trump would be the first president that wasn't a politician or military official
Meh, old people are just not as technologically literate. I mean look at Hillary's ol' "Wipe the server? Like with a cloth?" schtick.
As someone who is about done with college and has seen all types of people there, I'm not surprised at all that some are idiots.
It depends on if he can unleash some of the unconscious racism in that group.
I think HRC will get somewhere between Obama level participation and Kerry level. The bigger issue is that due to the population distribution, it's hard for the Dems to get much benefit from a massive minority shift towards them. Latino and Black voters tend to live in non-swing states. Even if you assume a +10/+10 shift on Latinos, it does almost nothing. (the black vote legitimately cannot get any more in favor of the D. 93/66 are numbers Clinton will not hit. Period. David fucking Duke could be running for the GOP and you won't get those numbers probably. I might be hyperbolic there. But trying to get the point across)
That said, I agree that the chance of Trump screwing himself is muuuuuuch higher than HRC doing something dumb. I'd be more worried about the DNC fucking everything up, to be honest.
This is the biggest issue Trump has. He has to hope that Republicans "fall in line"; otherwise, his ceiling is super low. (The Nate Silver argument). Scalia passing on does help him in this regard, though.
Economic fears can drive people to be super irrational, unfortunately.
Huh, didn't know that. Interesting.
If you want to ensure voter turn out for Dems or those that lean Dems if Trump is the nominee all you need to do is replay his statements. That should be enough to scare the shit out everyone on this side to get them out to vote regardless of age. You either inspire people to vote or you terrify them in regard to the alternative. Both are valid tactics. Now in face of that if you still have people going Bernie or Bust if he loses then we really need to take hard look at who these people really are/were.
I would love to see a potential path to him winning though. To see what kind of hoops that need to be jump through. Let's be honest here. Trump is not flipping hard Dem states if Clinton is the nominee. He's not. He's certainly not taking New York of places either. States that are purple and have heavy Latino/Hispanic and Black populations can be targeted hard to make it impossible for him to get them as well. Then you target less conservative and more moderate republicans who hate Trump and you play up his negatives as much as possible to get them to really question if they want him as president during various crisis and events. You got to make sure you he doesn't somehow get a hold on rural and poor Dems though but that might be something only those local could do.
He's playing into the baser feelings of some republicans. It always seems to hover around 30%. At the same time he's insulting everyone else. I don't see how he overcomes that.
I would love to see a potential path to him winning though. To see what kind of hoops that need to be jump through. Let's be honest here. Trump is not flipping hard Dem states if Clinton is the nominee. He's not. He's certainly not taking New York of places either. States that are purple and have heavy Latino/Hispanic and Black populations can be targeted hard to make it impossible for him to get them as well. Then you target less conservative and more moderate republicans who hate Trump and you play up his negatives as much as possible to get them to really question if they want him as president during various crisis and events. You got to make sure you he doesn't somehow get a hold on rural and poor Dems though but that might be something only those local could do.
He's playing into the baser feelings of some republicans. It always seems to hover around 30%. At the same time he's insulting everyone else. I don't see how he overcomes that.
Trump meant compel websites to block traffic from countries harboring ISIS. Many websites do this with China to reduce vulnerability to hackers.
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