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[NYCmetsfan]

You guys are just pulling numbers out of your asses.

Trump has no pathway in the electoral college.

I'm not worried about subgroups nationally. I'm worried about those in VA, OH, FL, and CO

 

[Basileus777]

I fully expect Hillary to beat Trump in the biggest landslide since 1980.

1984 and 1988 are out of reach. Even 96 isn't happening without a 3rd party run.

 

[Wilsongt]

You guys are just pulling numbers out of your asses.

Trump has no pathway in the electoral college.

I'm not worried about subgroups nationally. I'm worried about those in VA, OH, FL, and CO

Not unless all of the Bernie stans decide to vote Trump.

 

[Diablos]

So many of these "progressive" voters who back Bernie are blaming... black people.

What the fuck.

 

[Cybit]

You guys are just pulling numbers out of your asses.

Trump has no pathway in the electoral college.

I'm not worried about subgroups nationally. I'm worried about those in VA, OH, FL, and CO

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

Asses, indeed.

 

[Macho Madness]

If you want to ensure voter turn out for Dems or those that lean Dems if Trump is the nominee all you need to do is replay his statements. That should be enough to scare the shit out everyone on this side to get them out to vote regardless of age. You either inspire people to vote or you terrify them in regard to the alternative. Both are valid tactics.

Yes. Do not let him get away with what he's saying in the primary.

I saw a pundit last night saying that Trump is the angry white voter's last bastion of hope for 'white culture' being dominant in today's world. I'm not even sure what that means (besides the racial implications) but it does make sense tome. He's promising to "Make America Great Again" with a wink and a nod so you know exactly what that means. These white voters believe America was better when it was run by people like Ronald Reagan.

What they fail to realize is that we're not going back there. If Trump wins, I expect a big basklash against what he actually does that will spur turnout to stop him as quick as they can.

 

[Basileus777]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

Asses, indeed.

Dragging a slider to change colors doesn't make them plausible.

 

[Yellowtail]

I don't like the low Democratic turnout numbers at all, but I'm not sure it says that much about what will happen in November. The last time Democrats had a big turnout deficit in the primaries - when there was an heavily favoured establishment front runner running for a third Democratic term - it didn't materialize in the general (though Gore still lost the EC).

In Iowa turnout was 88,000 in the Republican caucuses, while only 60,000 caucused for Gore and Bradley.

In New Hampshire, 237,000 votes were cast in the Republican primary, 155,000 on the Democratic side:

Overall around 19 million voted in the Republican primaries, while just under 14 million voted in the Democratic race. In the end Gore won the popular vote / barely lost the electoral college. So while it's not the best sign, I wouldn't diablose just yet. A lot of Republicans are turning out to stop Trump.

 

[Iolo]

Nevada Is Rubio’s Firewall, but Cruz Could Tear It Down

Article from December, but it contradicts the CW that Rubio is ignoring Nevada.

Marco Rubio is going all in to win Nevada. Though the Florida senator has eschewed the idea that he needs to hunker down in any particular state, his campaign has quietly and steadily poured resources into the Silver State, where chaos and dismal turnout rule the caucuses.

Rumors of the Rubio campaign’s weak ground game in Iowa and New Hampshire have led many to conclude that his strategists don’t believe he needs an early-state victory to remain competitive as the primary season moves into March. But that narrative overlooks the reality on the ground here in Nevada, where his team has crafted the grassroots campaign that’s missing elsewhere. The result, according to more than a dozen Nevada GOP operatives and state officials, is the most organized and impressive operation of the Republican field.

“Rubio’s path to the first three states is small,” says one Republican state official. “It’s obvious that his campaign sees Nevada as his firewall.”

 

[Cybit]

Dragging a slider to change colors doesn't make them plausible.

I submit this

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-begins-the-2016-campaign-and-its-a-toss-up/

The path isn't probable or likely (currently) - don't get me wrong. But it is there, and it feels inaccurate to say it doesn't exist or isn't "plausible".

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I'm pretty sure we don't need to worry about low turnout from Democrats:

While both Clinton's and Sanders' supporters express greater enthusiasm about the possibility that their favored candidate would lead the party in the general election, most say they would still be satisfied if the other candidate won. Six-in-10 Clinton backers would be satisfied or enthusiastic if Sanders won, and 54% of Sanders backers would be satisfied or enthusiastic if Clinton won.

Both candidates enjoy broadly positive favorability ratings among Democrats (80% view Clinton favorably, 79% Sanders).

http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/25/politics/hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-poll/

Trump is 85% unfavorable with Democrats, Hillary is 80% favorable. I'm pretty sure a beloved figure in the Democratic party going against one of the men that Democrats hate most in the world is going to inspire some reaction.

 

[Coriolanus]

The 2012 primary at this point was Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum. One guy no one wanted to vote for and three joke candidates.

Those four weren't inspiring anybody. Trump, Cruz, OR Rubio would have wiped the floor with all of them.

Mitt vs Rubio would be kinda interesting. For completely ironic reasons.

That said...I hate, hate, HATE this thing that SCOTUS is running the country because Congress / the President are freaking locked up with each other and Congress isn't doing it's job. Gay marriage / abortion being decided by SCOTUS scares me because it can be reversed much easier now...and then what?

Do you also worry about interracial marriage being reversed? o_ô

So many of these "progressive" voters who back Bernie are blaming... black people.

What the fuck.

Constantly surprised by how some of yall forget that why yes, democrats can be racists too. 2008 wasn't that long ago, ffs.

 

[Effect]

Yes. Do not let him get away with what he's saying in the primary.

I saw a pundit last night saying that Trump is the angry white voter's last bastion of hope for 'white culture' being dominant in today's world. I'm not even sure what that means (besides the racial implications) but it does make sense tome. He's promising to "Make America Great Again" with a wink and a nod so you know exactly what that means. These white voters believe America was better when it was run by people like Ronald Reagan.

What they fail to realize is that we're not going back there. If Trump wins, I expect a big basklash against what he actually does that will spur turnout to stop him as quick as they can.

Exactly. Once it's clear he's going to get the nom you hammer every single state with the BS he's said and you show vile, cruel, racist, bigoted, ignorant, etc he is. You use those words as well. You make him as unacceptable as a human being as possible and you do not let for anything. You refer to him to his face as a the racist Trump.

 

[Cybit]

Mitt vs Rubio would be kinda interesting. For completely ironic reasons.

Do you also worry about interracial marriage being reversed? o_ô

Thankfully, interracial marriage was ultimately made legal in all states (like in the 90s, lol). As someone whose in an interracial relationship, there are days I am glad I am in Seattle currently, lol. But I prefer that they end up in laws rather than just SCOTUS rulings, just because it is much easier for SCOTUS to reverse a ruling than it is for Congress to repeal a law.

Aside; about the "English Only chants"

http://www.snopes.com/sanders-english-only-huerta/

It was a flat out lie, and they have video proof of it.

 

[Cerium]

So many of these "progressive" voters who back Bernie are blaming... black people.

What the fuck.

I've always said it, and it's a big reason I've felt that Bernie will have a net negative influence on our politics:

A Bernie stan is just a Trump voter waiting to happen.

 

[Cybit]

I've always said it, and it's a big reason I've felt that Bernie will have a net negative influence on our politics:

A Bernie stan is just a Trump voter waiting to happen.

Bernie and Trump share the "authoritarian" venn diagram. Folks who believe there should be laws against stuff they don't like (which exists on both sides to scary numbers) tend to be fans of both.

 

[Effect]

So many of these "progressive" voters who back Bernie are blaming... black people.

What the fuck.

This is why I don't like labeling myself with that term or even liberal. There are people that self-identify with both that can easily flip that switch when things don't go their way. They're happy when everyone is on board and will happily smile in your face but the second black and brown people decided to to fall in line for whatever reason with them the blame game starts almost instantly and we're first on the list. It's always interesting how easy the coded language starts to fly as well.

 

[Basileus777]

I submit this

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/clinton-begins-the-2016-campaign-and-its-a-toss-up/

The path isn't probable or likely (currently) - don't get me wrong. But it is there, and it feels inaccurate to say it doesn't exist or isn't "plausible".

That article isn't about a Trump path to victory in the general election. And I wouldn't expect Nate Silver to be championing Trump's chances in Novemeber either.

 

[Aaron Strife]

1984 and 1988 are out of reach. Even 96 isn't happening without a 3rd party run.

96-esque result would be Obama 2012 + NC and two of IN/MO/AZ/GA. Seems doable if not particularly likely.

 

[Macho Madness]

I wonder if the pressure is increasing on both sides to get Warren's endorsement. If she's going to do it in the primary, it's going to happen within the next week.

 

[titiklabingapat]

I love Warren and all, but when did she become a super-charismatic kingmaker? I always pegged that the only reason the lefties like me love her is that there is no one else.

 

[Cybit]

That article isn't about a Trump path to victory in the general election. And I wouldn't expect Nate Silver to be championing Trump's chances in Novemeber either.

Indeed - but the article is about the idea that any GOP nominee has other variables in their favor, Trump or not. I agree with Silver in that I think his ceiling is super low - but it's not out of the realm of possibility that he could pull off an upset. I think liberals / Democrats are overconfident currently in their general election chances, and I do not like that overconfidence.

 

[Chezzymann]

I've always said it, and it's a big reason I've felt that Bernie will have a net negative influence on our politics:

A Bernie stan is just a Trump voter waiting to happen.

My brothers kind of like that. He's currently a bernie supporter, but i can tell there's hints of a trump supporter in him. He really like's a lot of the anti establishment stuff he's said (along with most the stuff he said last debate) but wont support him due to, ya know, the whole 'temporary ban on all muslims entering the US' 'build a wall and make mexico pay for it' and 'climate change is a conspiracy invented by the Chinese' thing.

He seems to be more pro trump every day, and i feel like its just a matter of time before he starts saying 'he doesn't really mean it' and pointing at his Art of the Deal book that talks about him starting off with ridiculous propositions and negotiating it down to something less crazy to brush aside all those terrible things.

 

[Macho Madness]

I love Warren and all, but when did she become a super-charismatic kingmaker? I always pegged that the only reason the lefties like me love her is that there is no one else.

She isn't, but a lot of people see her as a powerful liberal champion in the Senate. Her endorsement won't mean a lot but it could mean some.

 

[Effect]

I wonder if the pressure is increasing on both sides to get Warren's endorsement. If she's going to do it in the primary, it's going to happen within the next week.

People keep pushing this but does that matter?

I would think the support of the various governors, which people have a strong relationship with and understanding of in their various states would be more important. Especially if said governor is popular and has done a decent job. I really doubt one senator really matters unless it was someone big like Ted Kennedy. That really helped Obama get attention I believe but Kennedy was a rarity and Warren is no where near his level.

 

[Holmes]

Ivysaur is good looking? Fucking Northeastern Republican WASPs.

 

[Jack Remington]

What did you win big on?

Clinton Iowa, Trump New Hampshire, No on most of the field in NH, Trump SC, plus a lot of smaller gains from things like selling Trump Nevada at a peak price and then buying back in when it dipped.

I completely avoided Dem Nevada because I was afraid of waves of college students. Should have gone with my gut on that one, as it was a huge moneymaker. But hindsight is always 20/20.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

https://www.reddit.com/r/politics/comments/46t6xn/bernie_took_the_white_vote_by_2_and_the_latino/

Encapsulate every single reason why Bernie will never make inroads with black folks.

Does anyone have decent demographic breakdowns of the Nevada caucus? I see some saying Sanders won Hispanics, others saying Hillary won.

 

[Manmademan]

I think HRC will get somewhere between Obama level participation and Kerry level. The bigger issue is that due to the population distribution, it's hard for the Dems to get much benefit from a massive minority shift towards them. Latino and Black voters tend to live in non-swing states.

uh...what? What kind of definition of "swing state" are we using here?

Florida:

55% White 16% Black 25% Hispanic 3% Asian

New Mexico:

40% White 2% Black 43% Hispanic 12% Native American

Colorado:

70% White 4% Black 21% Hispanic

North Carolina:

62% White 21% Black 10% Hispanic

Virginia:

63% White 19% Black 8% Hispanic 7% Asian

Arizona:

49% White 4% Black 39% Hispanic

Nevada:

50% White 9% Black 28% Hispanic 9% Asian

http://kff.org/other/state-indicator/distribution-by-raceethnicity/

Even if republicans split white voters 60-40, Blacks and Hispanics can easily put all of these out of reach. The only swing states without a significant minority presence are Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa- and 2/3 of these aren't really in play for republicans in the first place. Iowa and Wisconsin will be solidly democratic. Pennsylvania is typically thrown into the "swing state" bucket but its a misnomer- Republicans haven't carried PA in a presidential election since 1988.

 

[GnawtyDog]

It exists - but it basically boils down to a few things

1) Black voter turnout drops from 66 to pre Obama levels of 60% (expect this to happen barring something big happening)

2) Non college white turnout goes from 57%to 62%, and moves from 62% R to 65% R
(Based on the % increases at the GOP primaries, the 5% jump is what would be expected for Trump)

3) Latino turnout is mostly concentrated in states that are fiercely R or fiercely D, so increased turnout does not help Dems very much

4) College white voters break 2% more towards Trump

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

The link is a really cool way to model the election. Basically, if 4) happens, Trump wins. 1 and 2 are currently what should happen based on the primary turnout and voting.

How in hell is Georgia still Red with such a big block of Black voters? Boggles the mind... whites must vote unsually on-lock for Republicans. Even the college educated.

 

[QuiteWhittle]

How in hell is Georgia Red with such a big block of Black voters?

Deep South whites are 85% to 90% Republican.

 

[Officerrob]

Kinda amazing that the clear front runner for the Republican nomination doesn't have a single endorsement from a member of Congress

 

[GnawtyDog]

Deep South whites are 85% to 90% Republican.

Yeah looking at those percentages it has to be around that range. Insane. I think it would be impossible to try to rationalize what in the republican message appeals to them so much vs. the democratic message. I don't have trouble understanding non-college educated whites going all-in for the GOP but college educated whites - there is potential for reason and logic there I hope.

 

[titiklabingapat]

Yeah looking at those percentages it has to be around that range. Insane. I think it would be impossible to try to rationalize what in the republican message appeals to them so much vs. the democratic message. I don't have trouble understanding non-college educated whites going all-in for the GOP but college educated whites - there is potential for reason and logic there I hope.

Racism isn't rational.

 

[Manmademan]

Racism isn't rational.

beaten to it.

 

[Third Strike]

Yeah looking at those percentages it has to be around that range. Insane. I think it would be impossible to try to rationalize what in the republican message appeals to them so much vs. the democratic message. I don't have trouble understanding non-college educated whites going all-in for the GOP but college educated whites - there is potential for reason and logic there I hope.

Georgia will be in play for the Democrats in the next decade. The Atlanta metro is where all the growth is happening, and many people from the North is relocating there. Georgia is, surprisingly close to having a majority-minority, so that helps.

 

[Manmademan]

Georgia will be in play for the Democrats in the next decade. The Atlanta metro is where all the growth is happening, and many people from the North is relocating there. Georgia is, surprisingly close to having a majority-minority, so that helps.

Yep, wouldn't be surprised to see that one flip, but it's too soon. NC leans R but could be in true swing state territory in a few years as well.

Kinda amazing that the clear front runner for the Republican nomination doesn't have a single endorsement from a member of Congress

Cruz doesn't have any endorsements from the Senate either, despite being a senator. Just a handful of house crazies who love jesus above all else.

 

[Kyosaiga]

uh...what? What kind of definition of "swing state" are we using here?

Florida:



New Mexico:



Colorado:



North Carolina:



Virginia:



Arizona:



Nevada:



http://kff.org/other/state-indicator/distribution-by-raceethnicity/

Even if republicans split white voters 60-40, Blacks and Hispanics can easily put all of these out of reach. The only swing states without a significant minority presence are Ohio, Wisconsin, and Iowa- and 2/3 of these aren't really in play for republicans in the first place. Iowa and Wisconsin will be solidly democratic. Pennsylvania is typically thrown into the "swing state" bucket but its a misnomer- Republicans haven't carried PA in a presidential election since 1988.

I feel embarrassed for being surprised at some of those states' Hispanic population being in striking distance of whites.

 

[Manmademan]

I feel embarrassed for being surprised at some of those states' Hispanic population being in striking distance of whites.

Even worse, there's a tendency for certain hispanics to self identify as white, because fuck it why not.

It's probably higher than the reported figures.

 

[GnawtyDog]

Racism isn't rational.

Heh I know that's a huge chunk of the reason many whites vote in lock-step with the GOP but 85%-90%, there has to be more there. I can't believe, I won't accept the simple rationalization that such a big sum of whites vote republican due to dog-whistle tactics and racist overtures only. You look at the split currently, Georgia is a state that with enough work and enough attention by Dems should be flip-able. I guess the DNC is more worried about Florida, Ohio, and other swing states to care about spending resources heavily in Georgia so the rationale is to not bother. Just a guess.

 

[titiklabingapat]

I feel embarrassed for being surprised at some of those states' Hispanic population being in striking distance of whites.

Many Hispanics themselves are whites so there is likely some overlap.

Heh I know that's a huge chunk of the reason many whites vote in lock-step with the GOP but 85%-90%, there has to be more there. I can't believe, I won't accept the simple rationalization that such a big sum of whites vote republican due to dog-whistle tactics and racist overtures only. You look at the split currently, Georgia is a state that with enough work and enough attention by Demns should be flip-able. I guess the DNC is more worried about Florida, Ohio, and other swing states to care about spending resources heavily in Georgia so the rationale is to not bother. Just a guess.

You're talking about a region of the USA with a rich, varied and colorful history with slavery, institutionalized racism and Jim Crows laws. Many states in the region have had some form of official racist law or something similar to that effect for over 200 years of their 239 years of existence.

 

[Y2Kev]

Ohio doesn't have a sizable minority population?

 

[Manmademan]

Ohio doesn't have a sizable minority population?

I was hedging on that one, but I don't think it does. Ohio is 80% white, 12% Black, and 3% hispanic.

Black voters being overwhelmingly democratic helps, but i don't think there's a "significant" minority presence here. that's a pretty white state right there.

 

[Veritigo_X]

Ohio doesn't have a sizable minority population?

82.7% White according to the 2010 census. I imagine most of the minority population is condensed around city centers anyway.

Edit: Maybe I missed the sarcasm here...

 

[Kyosaiga]

Heh I know that's a huge chunk of the reason many whites vote in lock-step with the GOP but 85%-90%, there has to be more there. I can't believe, I won't accept the simple rationalization that such a big sum of whites vote republican due to dog-whistle tactics and racist overtures only. You look at the split currently, Georgia is a state that with enough work and enough attention by Demns should be flip-able. I guess the DNC is more worried about Florida, Ohio, and other swing states to care about spending resources heavily in Georgia so the rationale is to not bother. Just a guess.

Dog whistle politics plays on white voters subconscious racial biases, not anything overt.

 

[Manmademan]

Heh I know that's a huge chunk of the reason many whites vote in lock-step with the GOP but 85%-90%, there has to be more there. I can't believe, I won't accept the simple rationalization that such a big sum of whites vote republican due to dog-whistle tactics and racist overtures only. You look at the split currently, Georgia is a state that with enough work and enough attention by Dems should be flip-able. I guess the DNC is more worried about Florida, Ohio, and other swing states to care about spending resources heavily in Georgia so the rationale is to not bother. Just a guess.

its a bad guess. democrats competed EVERYWHERE in 2008, it was explicitly a different strategy for the Obama campaign compared to Hillary/Kerry/Gore's emphasis on pouring resources into swing states. It put republicans on the defensive and forced them to spend resources on states they considered "safe". Dems have been doing it ever since.

This is how north carolina got flipped in 2008, when democrats never would have bothered spending resources there otherwise.

Southern whites in certain states really ARE that racist, overt or not- and the massive black populations there as well as nasty holdover attitudes from the civil war, reconstruction, and the jim crow era have a lot to do with it. Keep in mind they were all "southern democrats" until the civil rights act of 1965 and the republican implementation of the "southern strategy" which explicitly went out of its way to target racists.

 

[bomma_man]

?

Not sure what you are referring to, but it was recently purchased by a very wealthy Clinton donor and that didn't go over well.

Every single article that references bernie or Clinton is full of about 100 erasure-likes crying conspiracy, even if the article is pro bernie or making fun of Clinton. It's insane.

 

[Jenov]

Deep South whites are 85% to 90% Republican.

Actually in 2008 Obama won 23% of the white vote in Georgia. Probably even more in 2012. So it's not that bad. In contrast, 2% of the black vote went to McCain, lol.

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/states/exitpolls/georgia.html

Edit:

Found a website breaking down racial voting numbers from presidential elections in 2008 & 2012

http://www.amren.com/features/2012/11/race-and-the-2012-election/

The worst is Mississippi :/

 

[Aaron Strife]

Interesting that Minnesota is 85% white but we're one of the most liberal states in the country.

 

[Kyosaiga]

Interesting that Minnesota is 85% white but we're one of the most liberal states in the country.

Uh...you can say the same about a lot of the New England States