Poor Politico they probably had a bunch of Clinton campaign in crisis and Rubio/Jeb comeback stories loaded up that had to be scrapped.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada
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Poor Politico they probably had a bunch of Clinton campaign in crisis and Rubio/Jeb comeback stories loaded up that had to be scrapped.
No room in the Big Tent for ugly gays like me
Adam, you are beautiful to me <3
Hillary bros united forever.
Macadinho94
Member
Not US PolGAF but can someone with an insight to the Irish election please do up a thread, the election is Friday. I'd do it but I'm still a Junior I'd even be willing to lend a hand
I'd even be willing to lend a handI'd actually be curious to see a poll at how LGBT people are voting in the Democratic primary.
Even more interestingly, who gay Republicans are voting for.
EDIT: LOL
http://www.washingtonblade.com/2016/02/16/poll-lgbt-people-split-48-for-clinton-41-for-sanders/
Even more interestingly, who gay Republicans are voting for.
EDIT: LOL
http://www.washingtonblade.com/2016/02/16/poll-lgbt-people-split-48-for-clinton-41-for-sanders/
eBay Huckster
Member
though the rest of your points are pretty solid, I don't know if I'd make that assumption (or rather I don't know if I'd be that pessimistic), entirely because Dem primary turnout's midway between '04 and '08 so far (and not particularly close to the former)
Yeah. It is absolutely a weakness in my argument - but between using Obama or Kerry/Gore, I guess I'm a little more pessimistic in the DNC (watching their incompetence first-hand for four years probably biases me) and their ability to GOTV. I also sort of think DWS is super incompetent, even for a DNC chair.
I'm not sure if there is someone here right now that has enough familiarity with the Irish elections to do a thread on Friday.Not US PolGAF but can someone with an insight to the Irish election please do up a thread, the election is Friday. I'd do it but I'm still a Junior
If you want, you can make the contents and someone here can post the thread for you.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Demographic shifts alone would have made Kerry's coalition a winning one. Observe:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/01/06/the-gops-2016-problem-in-3-maps/
The best-case scenario for the GOP is 2004 performance among minorities and 2012 performance among whites. Even then the only state they gain is Florida.
Kerry's 2004 performance - oddly - produces a smaller win than that, I'd guess because white voters in CO and VA have actually moved left.
Something really dramatic would need to happen for Democrats to fuck this one up.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/01/06/the-gops-2016-problem-in-3-maps/
The best-case scenario for the GOP is 2004 performance among minorities and 2012 performance among whites. Even then the only state they gain is Florida.
Kerry's 2004 performance - oddly - produces a smaller win than that, I'd guess because white voters in CO and VA have actually moved left.
Something really dramatic would need to happen for Democrats to fuck this one up.
That chart is why Rubio / Haley freaking terrifies me.
Macadinho94
Member
Yeah I don't mind doing a lay of the land where parties stand. Don't worry USGAF, we have some nutcases here too that'll rival yours!
Roland_Gunner
Member
Not sure why you say that. North Carolina was 6% more Republican than the country in '08 and 5.5% in '12. Obama just didn't win by as much nationally. NC is also one of the states where the minority population is growing faster. Non-whites are supposed to be 1.5% more of the voting population in '16 vs '12. If Clinton wins nationally by 5% she probably squeaks by in NC.
titiklabingapat
Member
Anecdotal but with my friends, it's 50/50 for Hill and Bernie with the oddball Trump supporter here and there.
The bf is on the fence and is a self identified independent and owns a gun (which makes me all hot and bothered). He likes Bernie a bit more but he claims to be truly on the fence. He joked about Trump and I gave him the non-joking stink eye so I think that's out of the question for him.
User 463088
Banned
: bro fist :
I'm surprised it's that close, tbh. I bet it's also heavily skewed among age groups. I mean, come November, I'm sure we'll all be aboard the Dem train regardless.
Veritigo_X
Member
Sorry
I don't know nothing bout these fancy photoshop machines, anyway someone can make this avatar-sized?
Heh, I just bought this print the other day for a friend and was immediately reminded of it when I saw this poster.
Given Hillary's well documented problem with alcohol I figured it'd be a good opportunity for a quick edit.
There you go.
Psh, for all the crap she's been put through, I'm always pleasantly surprised she's not a full blown alcoholic. She has almost super-human discipline and patience from what folks on her staff say.
EDIT: "Inhuman discipline" is what I heard from one of her staffers. Wording used because HRC is a giant Agents of SHIELD and Agent Carter fan apparently. Also, both her and Bill apparently watched Jessica Jones in a single weekend binge, and she wants Season 2 quote unquote "NOWWWW. Give me that badass shit."
Let's keep this thread PG-13, shall we?
shinra-bansho
Member
OGB's avatar should probably also say "Ready For Hillary."
I think there was a reverse phenomenon in Iowa; entrance polling understated Sanders support.
Entrance polling and analysis of the actual results disagree.
I think there was a reverse phenomenon in Iowa; entrance polling understated Sanders support.
Macho Madness
Member
I hope Trump's Nevada standing holds...
Jon Ralston was asked how each of the candidates are campaigning in Nevada:
Jon Ralston was asked how each of the candidates are campaigning in Nevada:
Macho Madness
Member
BoboBrazil
Member
Trump will have to step up his ground game to win this war with Rubio once the republican party starts putting all their resources behind him. . I wish we knew how much was being donated to Trump's campaign on a monthly basis.
Macho Madness
Member
Ralston expects much lower turnout in Nevada compared to the Dem caucus.
User 463088
Banned
You win one internet.
Harry Reid saved Hillary from NV defeat.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...rry-reid-culinary-union-jon-ralston/80688750/
http://www.usatoday.com/story/opini...rry-reid-culinary-union-jon-ralston/80688750/
The biggest thing that concerns me about Trump in the general is the fact that he clearly isn't a homophobe, which might be a first in modern Republican politics. If he decides to make a concerted effort to win some of the gay vote I fear he might have some success.
For a normal Republican any gains you make there would get Evangelicals to turn against you, but with Trump it seems like they'll let him get away with anything.
Basileus777
Member
So the turnout will be higher.
The Technomancer
card-carrying scientician
I enjoyed this post-mortem on Jeb's campaign
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/02/jeb_bush_was_not_a_joke.html
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2016/02/jeb_bush_was_not_a_joke.html
http://m.nydailynews.com/opinion/mr...ents-obama-serious-challenge-article-1.139373
Going down the rabbit hole and I find this gem of an article.
Going down the rabbit hole and I find this gem of an article.
this gem is even better
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_...clinton_s_nomination_is_inevitable_again.html
shinra-bansho
Member
Trump is questioning Rubio's eligibility now. Haha. Awesome.
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So a thought on cash flows and burn rates, and how long Sanders keeps going.
I had originally thought that given his fundraising, he was in it for the long haul. I'm less sure now.
Sanders ended January with around $15M cash in bank, having spent around $35M during the month.
He spent $14M on regular media buys and $7M on digital.
About $1M on merchandise.
But only $2.5M on payroll i.e. ground organization.
He's raising a lot though. His January haul was more than $21M. The campaign touted a huge post-NH win haul of about $7.1M. His donor base is also more likely to be legally able to give more (I'm less sure about financially able.)
But the revolution seems expensive so far; if his burn rate has kept up depending upon how much or how little his income has changed he could be eating into his cash on hand further.
I can only assume it's going to get even more expensive if he has to raise his awareness across more media markets and build local presence for the likes of Super Tuesday. In particular, his payroll costs are only about 60% of Clinton's.
A drought of wins will, I imagine, dampen incoming cash flow.
So how sustainable is this? Does he need to start holding high-dollar fundraisers - who will go, Susan Sarandon?
----
So a thought on cash flows and burn rates, and how long Sanders keeps going.
I had originally thought that given his fundraising, he was in it for the long haul. I'm less sure now.
Sanders ended January with around $15M cash in bank, having spent around $35M during the month.
He spent $14M on regular media buys and $7M on digital.
About $1M on merchandise.
But only $2.5M on payroll i.e. ground organization.
He's raising a lot though. His January haul was more than $21M. The campaign touted a huge post-NH win haul of about $7.1M. His donor base is also more likely to be legally able to give more (I'm less sure about financially able.)
But the revolution seems expensive so far; if his burn rate has kept up depending upon how much or how little his income has changed he could be eating into his cash on hand further.
I can only assume it's going to get even more expensive if he has to raise his awareness across more media markets and build local presence for the likes of Super Tuesday. In particular, his payroll costs are only about 60% of Clinton's.
A drought of wins will, I imagine, dampen incoming cash flow.
So how sustainable is this? Does he need to start holding high-dollar fundraisers - who will go, Susan Sarandon?
My thoughts as well.
That January spending number is insane. It is crazy to me that the Clinton campaign has more cash in the bank by a significant margin despite being out fundraised in January. I'm sure he has the ability to keep going for quite some time, but he can't keep that up.
RustyNails
Member
Assuming Trump wins the nomination and loses in a blowout, what does the 2020 GOP bench look like? Cruz Control? Rise of Rubot? Will the conservative electorate send another suicide bomber like Trump?
ChoklitReign
Member
I want to clarify the discussion a page back about Georgia's chances of becoming a swing state. I'm a Georgian and did a school project on exactly this and the results don't look optimistic. There are two maps that are very important - the county results for the 2012 general election, and the counties with the fastest growing population:
But what about Hispanics? It's true that GA has a fast-growing Hispanic population which I believe now makes up over 10% of the state population. But my hunch is that most of them are undocumented workers working on farms in the north for low wages and ineligible to vote.
Notice that every major city is blue but the surrounding areas quickly turn red. Georgia has a "black belt" in the middle which is majority black but rural and very sparsely populated.
Somebody said that metro Atlanta was fast-growing, but it really isn't. That would be the counties surrounding metro Atlanta - and they're generally majority white and very conservative. And guess which counties are losing population growth? The black belt.
But what about Hispanics? It's true that GA has a fast-growing Hispanic population which I believe now makes up over 10% of the state population. But my hunch is that most of them are undocumented workers working on farms in the north for low wages and ineligible to vote.
There's nothing really consistent where the Hispanic population is growing but the clusters in the rural north support my hypothesis.
This map proves Hispanics are, excluding Florida, not a major factor in elections held in the Southeast. Either they're apathetic about voting, not registered, or not large enough in population to sway elections.
The last nail in the coffin for Democrats in Georgia: in every state in the Gulf South whites were unanimously opposed to Obama. Racism is definitely a factor. When you drive up to the north from the Atlanta suburbs, your chances of seeing a Confederate flag get closer to 100%. I don't know if a white Democrat like Clinton would have significantly better chances of changing their minds, but if I was in the DNC, I would spend my least amount of time in states like these.
One of the reasons why 2000-2010 data may not be helpful is that, % wise, DeKalb County has already outpaced its entire growth from that decade. Fulton County is on pace to almost double its growth from 2000-2010 with 20% growth. That 20% is huge because the raw number of people who live in Fulton is already huge compared to the rest of the state. Fulton probably hit 1 million residents last year.
Urban revival is a huge part of the story from 2010 onward.
Places like Cherokee County are still growing, but at a slower rate than Fulton compared to 2000-2010.
Urban revival is a huge part of the story from 2010 onward.
Places like Cherokee County are still growing, but at a slower rate than Fulton compared to 2000-2010.
FYI, just found these and I'm going to math:
http://www.georgialibraries.org/lib/stategrants_accounting/pop-projections.php
http://www.georgialibraries.org/lib/stategrants_accounting/pop-projections.php
Tarkus
Member
You can't tell these people anything. They look at numbers that some whack job published and think it's absolute. The wishful thinking in this thread has always been beyond the stanning of Bern Bros in this regard.
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