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[User 463088]

can you link me to your delegate post.

Sure

So, using those PPP numbers, I did the math.

Assuming Hillary wins SC by the current average, and assuming Bernie wins NV by 2-5%, I wanted to see where the results would put us. I used PPPs numbers and gave each candidate the number of delegates they would earn based on finishing with that percentage of the vote.

However, I gave Bernie the benefit of the doubt, and assumed that every single undecided voter would go directly to him. (Which is not going to happen, but I wanted to give him the best case scenario).

Best case scenario, we'd be looking at

Hillary 920
Bernie 475

(That's the contest to date, including Super Delegates).

Without Supers, only pledged from Iowa through all the PPP states:

Hillary 558
Bernie 467

Now, a far more realistic scenario, in which the remaining voters break by current margins towards whomever is leading the state gives us the following rough estimates

Hillary 624
Bernie 397

With Supers

Hillary 1053
Bernie 413

Then we have Florida and Ohio coming up in March which would not bode well for Bernie at all, I wouldn't think. Even in the best case scenario, I just don't see where Bernie can make up 91 delegates. In the more realistic scenario, there is absolutely no way he can make up 227. Plus, he'd have no argument to make to the Supers to get them on his side.


****This was just strict proportional representation right down the middle. I didn't go into awards based on congressional districts or anything like that. ****

However, it's already wrong because both scenarios assumed a Bernie victory in NV. If I hve time, I'll do another one this week. Maybe I'll break it up by congressional districts if I have time.

There's a chance I might have to have surgery, though, so we'll see.

 

[NeoXChaos]

March 1st in colorado, a state that Bernie is hoping to win.

you think he can win it?

 

[Holmes]

Sure



However, it's already wrong because both scenarios assumed a Bernie victory in NV. If I hve time, I'll do another one this week. Maybe I'll break it up by congressional districts if I have time.

There's a chance I might have to have surgery, though, so we'll see.

Might as well wait for after South Carolina and just re-do it for Super Tuesday.

Oh why are you going through surgery? You ok?

 

[NeoXChaos]

Sure



However, it's already wrong because both scenarios assumed a Bernie victory in NV. If I hve time, I'll do another one this week. Maybe I'll break it up by congressional districts if I have time.

There's a chance I might have to have surgery, though, so we'll see.

Try and do everything up till April 26 when NY votes to the best of available polling. I want to know how long till the Bernie ship officially sinks.

 

[B-Dubs]

Might as well wait for after South Carolina and just re-do it for Super Tuesday.

^^

I agree with this. I'll even throw it in the thread and credit you.

Oh why are you going through surgery? You ok?

Seriously dude, you ok?

 

[VendettaRed07]

Told you guys the revolution died in nevada.

It was interesting hearing how many people were saying that the scheduling of the caucus is what caused the low turn out and Bernie loss.

What kind of revolution can't make it out to caucus for an hour or two on a Saturday with the dates and times scheduled MONTHS in advance?

"I was going to take part of the revolution, but voting is just too hard!!!"

 

[CDX]

I hope people stop giving Bernie Sanders money.

Did his campaign announce any money numbers after his Nevada loss?

I don't think I heard anything like that, although I could have missed it.

It could be the more he loses states, the more his donor support dries up. This could be a very bad March for his campaign.

 

[Abinash117]

Here is a story, originally from the AP, related to Trump's political organization:

http://www.wral.com/trump-s-campaign-has-spread-beyond-early-to-vote-states/15405354/

Summary: Trump has formed a better nationwide ground network than anyone else on the GOP side.

Pretty much lines up what I said before concerning most of GOP have bad campaigns.
But it does not look like that it will compete with Hillary's or Bernie's.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Did his campaign announce any money numbers after his Nevada loss?

I don't think I heard anything like that, although I could have missed it.

It could be the more he loses states, the more his donor support dries up. This could be a very bad March for his campaign.

they announced 4 million raised since loss I believe.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

W
E
L
P

What else is he supposed to say? "We'll probably bow out if we get blown out on Super Tuesday"?

Everyone promises to go to convention. Maybe Sanders will, maybe not. I can imagine him staying in after it's clear Hillary will be the nominee, solely to discuss his favorite issues.

 

[Y2Kev]

His small donor network is seriously impressive. I don't know how they keep doing it but it's incredible how he raises money (from people who have the least).

 

[User 463088]

Ya, I'm fine. Thanks everyone!

They think I have ulnar nerve entrapment. From Friday until today, half of my hand has gone completely numb and my entire arm feels like someone is lighting it on fire. They gave me a shot to see if it would help the inflamation. If it does, then I can hold off. If not, they might want to do surgery to make sure that I don't have any muscle loss or whatever. It's just like when you hit your funny bone? That type of pain....for three days straight. It's not life or death or anything, but my sister works with the hand surgeon and he would rather do it sooner rather than later if it's going to be necessary.

 

[Abinash117]

His small donor network is seriously impressive. I don't know how they keep doing it but it's incredible how he raises money (from people who have the least).

The online presence certainly helps and he has extremely passionate and large grassroots. It also seems like they are well-organized to a degree.

 

[User 463088]

Also, if I can believe Hillary's fundraising emails, she added 50,000 donors from NV to today. That's...well it's something at least.

 

[NeoXChaos]

The online presence certainly helps and he has extremely passionate and large grassroots. It also seems like they are well-organized to a degree.

Is hillary allowed to use his list once he bows out?

 

[Macho Madness]

I watched Trump react to the Sanders loss. He repeated himself a lot but the gist was "I think he really needed to win here. I think he's done."

 

[Roland_Gunner]

His small donor network is seriously impressive. I don't know how they keep doing it but it's incredible how he raises money (from people who have the least).

I hope there are a couple of senior people on the Sanders campaign thinking about how to leverage his support moving forward. Even his donors don't wan't to back Clinton they do need to pointed towards other down ballot candidates who struggle to get attention.

 

[Fuchsdh]

It was interesting hearing how many people were saying that the scheduling of the caucus is what caused the low turn out and Bernie loss.

What kind of revolution can't make it out to caucus for an hour or two on a Saturday with the dates and times scheduled MONTHS in advance?

"I was going to take part of the revolution, but voting is just too hard!!!"

That's the problem with staking your success on young people being arsed about something enough to turn out in droves.

 

[NeoXChaos]

I hope there are a couple of senior people on the Sanders campaign thinking about how to leverage his support moving forward. Even his donors don't wan't to back Clinton they do need to pointed towards other down ballot candidates who struggle to get attention.

they need to hire the guy who is helping their grassroots for the general

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

Bernie is basically a zombie, unless he suddenly gets Ta-Nehisi Coates to start secretly writing stump speeches for him and broadcasts them 24/7 on every TV network and radio station in the South.

 

[User 463088]

The thing that gets me is that Bernie's people have written off the south. I mean, they don't have a choice, right? But, optics alone, it's not a good look. They've conceded the AA vote entirely. That won't play well with a lot of people, regardless of race or ethnicity. It seriously draws into question his ability, should he make it to the general, to keep the Obama coalition engaged and active.

 

[lastflowers]

Is hillary allowed to use his list once he bows out?

She's been emailing me from the start because she got Obama's list (or some list, because it's an email account I haven't used in over 6 years). Not really gonna do any good for money raising, but she'll get my and the family's votes.

 

[B-Dubs]

Bernie is basically a zombie, unless he suddenly gets Ta-Nehisi Coates to start secretly writing stump speeches for him and broadcasts them 24/7 on every TV network and radio station in the South.

Even that might not be enough at this point.

 

[BoboBrazil]

Did his campaign announce any money numbers after his Nevada loss?

I don't think I heard anything like that, although I could have missed it.

It could be the more he loses states, the more his donor support dries up. This could be a very bad March for his campaign.

I hope it does. I guess we will have to wait until after Super Tuesday for it to start drying up though.

 

[Clefargle]

Is hillary allowed to use his list once he bows out?

Yeah but she can only look for 30 min and then she must sue the DNC

 

[User 463088]

Bernie can turn the NV loss into a fundraising drive. That's easy. He can ramp up the "look how close we came, if we just had a little more..." and the money will flow in. However, after SC, and maybe going 4 and 22 in March...that argument gets a hell of a lot harder.

 

[HylianTom]

Damn Din, I look forward to Bill Clinton campaigning against the Republicans again..

 

[Coriolanus]

Bernie can turn the NV loss into a fundraising drive. That's easy. He can ramp up the "look how close we came, if we just had a little more..." and the money will flow in. However, after SC, and maybe going 4 and 22 in March...that argument gets a hell of a lot harder.

Which is why they couldn't afford to lose NV. That was the buffer against SC and what is to come.

With that gone... welp.

 

[Holmes]

Bernie can turn the NV loss into a fundraising drive. That's easy. He can ramp up the "look how close we came, if we just had a little more..." and the money will flow in. However, after SC, and maybe going 4 and 22 in March...that argument gets a hell of a lot harder.

He's not doing a good job of it. Looks like a lot of his supporters are deflated, and you're right that after South Carolina it'll probably be much worse.

 

[RustyNails]

Which is why they couldn't afford to lose NV. That was the buffer against SC and what is to come.

With that gone... welp.

Yea something tells me Bernie wont be shooting hoops as the SC results are starting to come in.

 

[VendettaRed07]

Which is why they couldn't afford to lose NV. That was the buffer against SC and what is to come.

With that gone... welp.

I think its why he couldn't afford to lose Iowa either. Momentum from a commanding win in Iowa + NH may have been able to swing NV for him. Regardless of how badly he would lose in that scenario in SC, he would have had huge momentum heading into Super Tuesday winning 3/4, but now because he lost narrowly Iowa he'll be heading into it losing 3/4.

I feel like this was all over after he lost Iowa. It was a state he needed to have a commanding win in for him to have a shot.

 

[HylianTom]

Tom Ridge - a Bush campaign fixture - is now joining the.. Kasich campaign.

Delicious.

Establishment: stay divided!

 

[B-Dubs]

Tom Ridge - a Bush campaign fixture - is now joining the.. Kasich campaign.

Delicious.

Establishment: stay divided!

WONDERFUL!

I'm going to have to watch Nevada closely to see if Trump spikes near 90 so I can cash out and move it all into Hillary and double my Trump money.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Former HHS Secretary Sebelius endorses Clinton

Alex Seitz-Wald ‏@aseitzwald 41m41 minutes ago
Former NAACP head and Maryland Congressman Kweisi Mfume endorses Hillary Clinton.

http://www.politico.com/blogs/2016-...6/02/kathleen-sebelius-hillary-clinton-219623

 

[Holmes]

Tom Ridge - a Bush campaign fixture - is now joining the.. Kasich campaign.

Delicious.

Establishment: stay divided!

Yum. You know, I thought 2020 was going to be Cruz vs. Rubio and Cruz would keep most of his current support and most of Trump's and win. Now I think if it's Cruz vs. Rubio vs. Kasich and Rubio and Kasich divide an already weakened establishment, I think Cruz has a great shot at being the nominee in 2020.

 

[BoboBrazil]

2020 will be Nikki Haley's time to shine. She will be the nominee for sure. Although I'd guess if Rubio does win the nom somehow she would be the vp pick this year.

 

[NeoXChaos]

 

[PBY]

Keep this train rolling

 

[Abinash117]

Is hillary allowed to use his list once he bows out?

Don't see why not, the problem is that how dedicated they are to the ideology. They might just leave and not look back. Although, I expect a quite a few donors and management people official or not to jump to Hillary. Hillary will certainly seek them out and they might be pressured to join her, and most of his endorsements will go with Hillary.

 

[Holmes]

2020 will be Nikki Haley's time to shine. She will be the nominee for sure. Although I'd guess if Rubio does win the nom somehow she would be the vp pick this year.

Haley would probably face the same issues Rubio is facing now. And also she lowered the Confederate flag!

 

[Gruco]

By this time in 2008, Obama had just won 9 straight states. Amazing how much earlier things were then compared to now. Obama also outright won the night on super Tuesday by running up the caucus states.

I hope we don't see another cycle of a mathematically eliminated candidate sticking around for no reason, and the media ignoring their inevitable loss.

 

[NeoXChaos]

By this time in 2008, Obama had just won 9 straight states. Amazing how much earlier things were then compared to now. Obama also outright won the night on super Tuesday by running up the caucus states.

I hope we don't see another cycle of a mathematically eliminated candidate sticking around for no reason, and the media ignoring their inevitable loss.

but that was the beauty of the 08 race.

 

[Holmes]

This one is not totally unexpected though, but if Kasich stays in until March 15th (which is looking likely) then it probably allows Trump to take Ohio and Florida comfortably. Then it's officially over.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

2020 will be Nikki Haley's time to shine. She will be the nominee for sure. Although I'd guess if Rubio does win the nom somehow she would be the vp pick this year.

In a year where it looks like the GOP is going to nominate Donald Trump, I don't see how we can say anything will happen for sure.

 

[BoboBrazil]

In a year where it looks like the GOP is going to nominate Donald Trump, I don't see how we can say anything will happen for sure.

Yeah, it's kind of hard to know. I never would have thought Trump would be running for president and be leading this time last year.

 

[Basileus777]

This one is not totally unexpected though, but if Kasich stays in until March 15th (which is looking likely) then it probably allows Trump to take Ohio and Florida comfortably. Then it's officially over.

I think when Kasich loses Michigan on March 8th after not even meeting the delegate threshold for most of the March 1st states, he'll drop out.

 

[ivysaur12]

I think when Kasich loses Michigan on March 8th after not even meeting the delegate threshold for most of the March 1st states, he'll drop out.

And by then it'll be too late -- Trump will have well past the amount of delegates he needs on his way to the nomination.

 

[RustyNails]

I think its why he couldn't afford to lose Iowa either. Momentum from a commanding win in Iowa + NH may have been able to swing NV for him. Regardless of how badly he would lose in that scenario in SC, he would have had huge momentum heading into Super Tuesday winning 3/4, but now because he lost narrowly Iowa he'll be heading into it losing 3/4.

I feel like this was all over after he lost Iowa. It was a state he needed to have a commanding win in for him to have a shot.

I think you are precisely right with that last sentence. Iowa by all means SHOULD have been won by Bernie: 95+% white, big college centers, a caucus state that is better suited for Bernie (as per Nate Silver) and lots of berning from young people. He barely was able to tie Hillary there. If Bernie somehow won NV after losing IA, it would have been quite troubling for Hillary campaign because that is a very clear picture that Bernmentum was real. That was Game Change imo. But it wasn't. There was no Bernmentum. He lost by 6 points in NV which is not too shocking because he was barely able to capture IA caucus.

Speaking of Game Change, I want Game Change 3.0 hardcover with just a picture of Donald J. Trump on it. Then I can die a happy man.

 

[Basileus777]

And by then it'll be too late -- Trump will have well past the amount of delegates he needs on his way to the nomination.

And Trump can put this whole thing away on March 15th by winning Florida. His numbers there are currently higher than the entire establishment lane combined.

 

[Teggy]

Also, if I can believe Hillary's fundraising emails, she added 50,000 donors from NV to today. That's...well it's something at least.

<raises hand>

Also:

Utah

Jeb Bush (R) 9%
Ben Carson (R) 9%
Ted Cruz (R) 22%
John Kasich (R) 4%
Marco Rubio (R) 24%
Donald Trump (R) 18%
Other 2%
Undecided 11%

Dems Hillary 51-44