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PoliGAF 2016 |OT| Ask us about our performance with Latinos in Nevada

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P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
B-Dubs said:
Rubio's favorability will drop like a rock once he's actually under some real spotlight.
Click to expand...

Roland_Gunner said:
Being 8 points behind obviously isn't a great start but people barely know Rubio and he's already under water. Clinton can beat him but it'll be a real nail-biter, which we already know.
Click to expand...

I disagree.

When it gets down to one-on-one, the two are viewed in contrast with the other. Rubio comes off as much more likeable than Hillary, and it will show in debates.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Plinko said:
I disagree.

When it gets down to one-on-one, the two are viewed in contrast with the other. Rubio comes off as much more likeable than Hillary, and it will show in debates.
Click to expand...

Rubio is a fucking robot who wants to annul all gay marriages and stop raped women from getting abortions, that won't show much likability.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Plinko said:
I disagree.

When it gets down to one-on-one, the two are viewed in contrast with the other. Rubio comes off as much more likeable than Hillary, and it will show in debates.
Click to expand...

Rubio would look like a 10-year-old in a debate against her. Dude got clowned by Christie, Hillary would eat him alive.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
Plinko said:
I disagree.

When it gets down to one-on-one, the two are viewed in contrast with the other. Rubio comes off as much more likeable than Hillary, and it will show in debates.
Click to expand...

I mean... he may be more liked, but she's going to make him look like an ignorant child during those debates, and a robotic one at that; no way he'd be able to stay on-message against what she'd be throwing at him without resorting to repetition.
 
D

danm999

Member
Plinko said:
I disagree.

When it gets down to one-on-one, the two are viewed in contrast with the other. Rubio comes off as much more likeable than Hillary, and it will show in debates.
Click to expand...

What? Rubio is a sweaty mess who can't improvise and is backed up by awful policies.

His saving grace so far is that he's been more articulate than Jeb. Poke him even a little and he falls apart.
 
I

ivysaur12

Banned
I also think there's a chance Rubio falls apart in a 1-on-setting when he has to have a back and forth with someone else, like him and Christie.

And Christie is no Hillary.
 
M

Makai

Member
Liberals really need to calm down in the OT. Without fail, some conservative will post some benign nothing like "freedom is good" and five people jump on him, demanding an explanation. Then they skulk back to Gaming, never to be seen again.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
Being 8 points behind obviously isn't a great start but people barely know Rubio and he's already under water. Clinton can beat him but it'll be a real nail-biter, which we already know.
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But the Republican candidate still has the same obstacles Mittens faced in 2012. New swing states like Virginia, Colorado and Nevada have trended blue over the past decade and half. It's no longer 2000 and the election depends on either Florida or Ohio. Hillary has lot more latitude in swing states, but if Rubio loses a single one, he's in deep shit. If Hillary carries NV, IA, VA and loses every other swing state, she becomes President. If she loses those three but carries OH, she still wins. That's the Kerry map sans OH.
 
C

Cerium

Member
You know, it's really fascinating how demoralized the Sanders fan club has become after just one loss in Nevada. I really thought that they would be the die hard, true believer, damn the odds type of supporters who would never give up. The ones who only fight harder and scream louder in defeat. We had those on both sides in 2008. We were with our candidates to the bitter end.

These dudes make me think that the Sanders enthusiasm was a mirage. He's not a movement, he's a fad. The wave is already breaking upon the very first obstacle in its path.

I think his support will collapse almost immediately after Super Tuesday once he is no longer the cool thing everyone is talking about.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Cerium said:
You know, it's really fascinating how demoralized the Sanders fan club has become after just one loss in Nevada. I really thought that they would be the die hard, true believer, damn the odds type of supporters who would never give up. The ones who only fight harder and scream louder in defeat. We had those on both sides in 2008. We were with our candidates to the bitter end.

These dudes make me think that the Sanders enthusiasm was a mirage. He's not a movement, he's a fad. The wave is already breaking upon the very first obstacle in its path.

I think his support will collapse almost immediately after Super Tuesday.
Click to expand...

If Tea Party dudes were as unenthusiastic as Bernie Stans, they would have given up after the first time their Obamacare repeal didn't pass. But then they tried (and failed) 50 more times.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Rubio is a fucking robot who wants to annul all gay marriages and stop raped women from getting abortions, that won't show much likability.
Click to expand...

B-Dubs said:
Rubio would look like a 10-year-old in a debate against her. Dude got clowned by Christie, Hillary would eat him alive.
Click to expand...

Poodlestrike said:
I mean... he may be more liked, but she's going to make him look like an ignorant child during those debates, and a robotic one at that; no way he'd be able to stay on-message against what she'd be throwing at him without resorting to repetition.
Click to expand...

danm999 said:
What? Rubio is a sweaty mess who can't improvise and is backed up by awful policies.

His saving grace so far is that he's been more articulate than Jeb. Poke him even a little and he falls apart.
Click to expand...

Everyone said the exact same thing about George W. Bush and his debate ability.
 
U

User 85168

Banned
Dunno if anyone follows FiveThirtyEight's politics podcast, but they did a buy/sell/hold on primary odds. Out of 3 participants:

Trump: 50.3%
0 buy 1 sell 2 hold

Rubio: 43.5%
2 buy 0 sell 1 hold

Cruz: 2.4%
2 buy 1 sell 0 hold

Clinton: 84.4%
2 buy 0 sell 1 hold

Sanders: 13%
0 buy 2 sell 1 hold
Click to expand...

I found their reasoning for various candidates (the 2 buy on Cruz is purely if you were actually betting to make money and the 1 sell on Trump wasn't Nate Silver, believe it or not) pretty interesting.
 
M

Makai

Member
dramatis said:
We can barely control ourselves, much less say the OT

(see the thirst for examples)
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I'm seriously appalled that so many people would break off relationships with friends and family who revealed they like the Republican frontrunner. Setting aside that this attitude probably contributes to government gridlock, it's just plain anti-social.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Dubya was folksy and charming. He can still seemingly work a room even after a disastrous Presidency. There are no adjectives to describe Rubio that aren't just descriptions of his biology.

Well, besides negative ones like robotic, I guess.
 
S

sangreal

Member
Cerium said:
You know, it's really fascinating how demoralized the Sanders fan club has become after just one loss in Nevada. I really thought that they would be the die hard, true believer, damn the odds type of supporters who would never give up. The ones who only fight harder and scream louder in defeat. We had those on both sides in 2008. We were with our candidates to the bitter end.

These dudes make me think that the Sanders enthusiasm was a mirage. He's not a movement, he's a fad. The wave is already breaking upon the very first obstacle in its path.

I think his support will collapse almost immediately after Super Tuesday once he is no longer the cool thing everyone is talking about.
Click to expand...

Howard Dean all over again
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Makai said:
I'm seriously appalled that so many people would break off relationships with friends and family who revealed they like the Republican frontrunner. Setting aside that this attitude probably contributes to government gridlock, it's just plain anti-social.
Click to expand...

I mean, being friends with racists is pretty lame and horrible. My dad has contributed almost nothing positively to my life via talking about how all Muslims are terrorists. My grandmother telling me not to date people of color is also not particularly beneficial to my life.

It's really easy to make friends with non-racists if you can make friends with racists too.

You would probably have to be pretty anti-social if you were in a white southern state in the 1960s and you thought interracial marriage should be a possible right, but idk.
 
D

Diablos

Member
Okay so assuming Kasich stays in until 3/8 -- and I think he does, it's not far from now -- there's no way Rubio can win, right? I mean, none? Zero. Zilch. Nada.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
RustyNails said:
W was an amazing retail politician. He was a charming motherfucker. Watch this MSNBC 2000 election trail and tell me you don't like him.

Besides, W won because of a snafu. By all means Gore should have gotten this election.
Click to expand...

Shit, by the end you'd see him talk and know he was a moron but you'd think he was a likable moron. That he was more of a goofy dude that couldn't get it right than a Hans Landa-esque master planner.
 
J

JesseEwiak

Member
B-Dubs said:
Shit, by the end you'd see him talk and know he was a moron but you'd think he was a likable moron. That he was more of a goofy dude that couldn't get it right than a Hans Landa-esque master planner.
Click to expand...

I mean, that was Cheney. I realize, "Cheney is evil" is a dumb liberal trope but he's the SOB who named himself as the guy who should be Bush's VP after being in charge of the search committee and everybody just went along with it.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
shinra-bansho said:
Dubya was folksy and charming. He can still seemingly work a room even after a disastrous Presidency. There are no adjectives to describe Rubio that aren't just descriptions of his biology.
Click to expand...

All of this. Also, if you re-run 2000 with 2016 demographics Gore wins by like 4% and Bush is a historical footnote.

RustyNails said:
But the Republican candidate still has the same obstacles Mittens faced in 2012. f Rubio loses a single one, he's in deep shit. If Hillary carries NV, IA, VA and loses every other swing state, she becomes President. If she loses those three but carries OH, she still wins. That's the Kerry map sans OH.
Click to expand...


That's why I think she can win, and would be a slight favorite, but if Clinton wins with VA, NV, and CO while losing FL and OH that's a nail-biter to me.
 
T

Teggy

Member
I hope you guys are right about Trump in the general because I am freaking terrified of him somehow winning.

Hopefully we'll start getting some more state by state matchups to look at like that Virginia one. I see that Clinton is +25 in NY as of 2/3, so that makes me feel a bit better, but Trump is up a bit in Florida as of mid-January which makes me feel a bit worse. Pennsylvania was way too close last time it was polled as well (but it was a way back).
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Makai said:
I feel like we're going to be saying that all the way until the convention.
Click to expand...

It's not over until our God King Trump refits the outsite of the White House with an absolutely stunning Breccia Pernice white veined marble. Something truly beautiful and very classy believe me.
 
W

Wall

Member
sangreal said:
Howard Dean all over again
Click to expand...

Howard Dean went on to become the DNC chair. His 50 state strategy was a significant factor in the Democrats gaining the House and Senate in 2006. The organization he founded, Democracy for America, continues to be a force in grassroots Democratic politics, even if Dean himself moved on to other things.

As for Sanders, there definitely are still diehard Sanders supporters out there. Neogaf never really had a big contingent of those individuals in terms of the online presence of Sanders supporters.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Bowdz said:
It's not over until our God King Trump refits the outsite of the White House with an absolutely stunning Breccia Pernice white veined marble. Something truly beautiful and very classy believe me.
Click to expand...

The oval office will be more luxurious than you've ever seen it, believe me it'll be so luxurious that you'll be begging him to make it less luxurious and he'll just say no.
 
M

Makai

Member
B-Dubs said:
The oval office will be more luxurious than you've ever seen it, believe me it'll be so luxurious that you'll be begging him to make it less luxurious and he'll just say no.
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The biggest and most luxurious military you've ever seen

mega-yacht-a-owned-andrei-melnichenko-2.jpg
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Kyosaiga said:
Nixon was Eisenhower's Vice President.

I....

Fuck..

I was always under the assumption that he came out of nowhere against JFK.

Fuuuuuuuuck. And yet the men had completely different governing philosophies.

I need to sit down.
Click to expand...

True story: During the Nixon-Kennedy election of 1960, when Ike was asked to give an example of a major idea of Nixon's that he had heeded, his response was "if you give me a week, I might think of one."
 
S

sangreal

Member
Wall said:
Howard Dean went on to become the DNC chair. His 50 state strategy was a significant factor in the Democrats gaining the House and Senate in 2006. The organization he founded, Democracy for America, continues to be a force in grassroots Democratic politics, even if Dean himself moved on to other things.

As for Sanders, there definitely are still diehard Sanders supporters out there. Neogaf never really had a big contingent of those individuals in terms of the online presence of Sanders supporters.
Click to expand...

Howard Dean was great but I'm not sure what that has to do with my comment on his presidential campign and how it quickly fell apart after one bad loss (and an overblown awkward moment)

I doubt Bernie will even stay in the Democratic Party post-campaign so that is definitely not the comparison I was going for
 
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