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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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B

BotoxAgent

Member
sazzy said:
On one hand, the first debate hasn't even started. Reminds of the time just after RNC and just before the DNC.

On the other hand, it may be time to panic?
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yeah I am panicking. It's nearly October and Hillary hasn't had a positive news cycle in a long time.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
BrokenFiction said:
The Nowcast is just the worst thing to come out of punditry in a long time. It means nothing and it gets folks whipped up into a frenzy.
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It has one use - it displays trends more accurately than a forecast. But it shouldn't ever be used as a forecast, because it isn't, and unfortunately pundits don't really understand that distinction.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Again -

Im not bedwetting, diablosing, whatever.

I'm at a place where I think she'll likely win, but its going to be close.

And close is FUCKING TERRIFYING because this isn't another year of R v D. This is a normal candidate against a populist neo-fascist.
 
sazzy

sazzy

Member
I want to post this again, because it took me a while to make :p and I like it :p

Mchffb.jpg
 
D

disastermouse

Banned
Boke1879 said:
I'd disagree here. She has plenty of positive ads out and when she's out speaking publicly she's very positive and pushes her message and policy
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To the second point - it doesn't matter if the media doesn't cover it. Her crowds are small. There IS an enthusiasm gap. How is this not expected after 8 years of Obama? Tell me that you didn't really believe that Trump was going to depress the GOP vote after 8 years of a Democrat presidency with the most polarized electorate in modern times.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
PBY said:
Again -

Im not bedwetting, diablosing, whatever.

I'm at a place where I think she'll likely win, but its going to be close.

And close is FUCKING TERRIFYING because this isn't another year of R v D. This is a normal candidate against a populist neo-fascist.
Click to expand...

The country is the most polarized it's been in our life times. The polling likely wouldn't be much different if the D was anyone else, or even if the R was anyone else.
 
R

royalan

Member
disastermouse said:
To the second point - it doesn't matter if the media doesn't cover it. Her crowds are small. There IS an enthusiasm gap. How is this not expected after 8 years of Obama? Tell me that you didn't really believe that Trump was going to depress the GOP vote after 8 years of a Democrat presidency with the most polarized electorate in modern times.
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Apparently that's what Hillary's campaign thought.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
disastermouse said:
To the second point - it doesn't matter if the media doesn't cover it. Her crowds are small. There IS an enthusiasm gap. How is this not expected after 8 years of Obama? Tell me that you didn't really believe that Trump was going to depress the GOP vote after 8 years of a Democrat presidency with the most polarized electorate in modern times.
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The only metric we have of voting trends so far (absentees ballots) shows depressed republican voting vs. 2012 or at least not the growth needed.

That can change! But I think republican excitement is down
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
PBY said:
Again -

Im not bedwetting, diablosing, whatever.

I'm at a place where I think she'll likely win, but its going to be close.

And close is FUCKING TERRIFYING because this isn't another year of R v D. This is a normal candidate against a populist neo-fascist.
Click to expand...

yeah, I agree. I think Clinton is something like 65% likely to win. Total guesstimate, but you get my jist. The trouble is... suppose someone said you had a 65% chance of surviving tomorrow. You'd still be panicking, quite fairly.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Crab said:
yeah, I agree. I think Clinton is something like 65% likely to win. Total guesstimate, but you get my jist. The trouble is... suppose someone said you had a 65% chance of surviving tomorrow. You'd still be panicking, quite fairly.
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I agree with you. I don't think Clinton's odds are as good as Sam Wang says and I don't think they're as bad as 538's. Upshot is currently saying 69% which "feels" more right based on the last week's polls and electoral map.
 
G

Gotchaye

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
SHE HAS 270 IN THIS MODEL!

HOW THE HELL WOULD HE WIN?
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I don't know what 538's model is, but they try to predict the state of the race on Election Day, and there's some error in that. Maybe they say that some of this error is correlated across states, but also there will be an independent component.

Suppose that all Trump-leaning states are super-safe, but all Clinton-leaning states are only barely leaning her way, and Clinton has just barely 270. Then Trump can be favored overall because he only needs to win one slightly biased coin flip out of many to win, even though Clinton is favored to win each individual flip.
 
D

disastermouse

Banned
royalan said:
Apparently that's what Hillary's campaign thought.
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That's what a majority of this forum thought. I remember the ebullient joy in this forum when Trump won the GOP primary.

NYCmetsfan said:
The only metric we have of voting trends so far (absentees ballots) shows depressed republican voting vs. 2012 or at least not the growth needed.

That can change! But I think republican excitement is down
Click to expand...

This seems unlikely, mostly due to history more than anything else. Then again, 2016 gonna 2016.

Crab said:
yeah, I agree. I think Clinton is something like 65% likely to win. Total guesstimate, but you get my jist. The trouble is... suppose someone said you had a 65% chance of surviving tomorrow. You'd still be panicking, quite fairly.
Click to expand...

And again I lament the lack of a 'like' button.
 
D

Dierce

Member
Everything rides on the debate. This is what the Clinton campaign was aiming for and now it is the last and only chance. Incredible how badly this is turning out when only a few months ago we were imagining a landslide for Clinton.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
NYCmetsfan said:
Why don't they want to vote for hillary?

I think everytime people say this people need to look at why people don't want to vote for hillary. What is the reason.
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I had a conversation with some people who didn't like her on Saturday, it was literally all bullshit on the e-mails and Foundation.
 
N

nature boy

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
Why don't they want to vote for hillary?

I think everytime people say this people need to look at why people don't want to vote for hillary. What is the reason.
Click to expand...

Well she's tied with Trump in favorability and unfavorabliity in the Bloomberg poll.

And her campaign ads are "but Trump's a bigger turd".
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
PBY said:
Again -

Im not bedwetting, diablosing, whatever.

I'm at a place where I think she'll likely win, but its going to be close.

And close is FUCKING TERRIFYING because this isn't another year of R v D. This is a normal candidate against a populist neo-fascist.
Click to expand...

I'm not too worried that Hillary will lose. I think she'll win. But it does bother me that Trump is doing as well as he is without the benefit of an economic depression or some other dramatic external factor that, prior to this year, I would've considered necessary to make neo-fascism viable in the United States.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
PBY said:
War, wall-street and weed.

Also, her college plan isn't that great.
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Her college plan is part of the reason I supported her and not Bernie in the primary. Because the differences in their plans was the most blatantly obvious gap in Bernie's ability to actually be president.

His plan relied on each state to participate and make the system work, and anyone can just look at the medicare expansion and see how poorly that will go. Versus Hillary's plan, which, while not quite as good on the surface, boiled down to an actual plan that could actually work without relying on stupid states to participate.
 
R

royalan

Member
sphagnum said:
Put out a candidate who people actually want to vote for.
Click to expand...

It's not that. Hillary had decent millennial support before Bernie came along and spoke more directly to them.

Hillary needs to talk to her voters. It's as simple as that.

September was supposed to be the month that started, but it's come in fits and starts. First she had to take time off the trail because of pneumonia. Then she finally gave a speech aimed at millenials...but the air got sucked out of that by terrorism. THEN she took another week off from hard campaigning to prepare for the debates.

October needs to be about the Obama coalition. Point blank period. Fuck Republicans. Fuck moderates. Get out there and stump where you need to stump. Hard.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
nature boy said:
Well she's tied with Trump in favorability and unfavorabliity in the Bloomberg poll.

And her campaign ads are "but Trump's a bigger turd".
Click to expand...

Sure some ads are like that, but also she's had a good stretch of positive ads as well, but we tend to focus on the negative ones.

Like I said her messaging the last couple of weeks and majority of her new ads are positive.
 
P

PBY

Banned
royalan said:
It's not that. Hillary had decent millennial support before Bernie came along and spoke more directly to them.

Hillary needs to talk to her voters. It's as simple as that.

September was supposed to be the month that started, but it's come in fits and starts. First she had to take time off the trail because of pneumonia. Then she finally gave a speech aimed at millenials...but the air got sucked out of that by terrorism. THEN she took another week off from hard campaigning to prepare for the debates.

October needs to be about the Obama coalition. Point blank period. Fuck Republicans. Fuck moderates. Get out there and stump where you need to stump. Hard.
Click to expand...

This this this
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
So the prevailing thought is that:

1) The bar is set very low for Trump

and

2) Debates can really change a race


These two things are true!

However, they don't add up to a serious concern. While the bar is low for Donald for the general press reaction, that doesn't equate to a poll bounce even if he's viewed as the winner. Among undecideds, he still has to prove he's better than Clinton and not just "not as bad as people think." A lot of undecided voters will be watching. And for that block, the bar for Clinton is pretty low too. All she has to do is come off as relatable and more of a President than Trump-- and that's not going to be hard for her.

So while the press may say that Trump had a better night because he managed to not screw up, a lot of undecided voters whose opinions of Clinton are based on vague notions of half-baked scandals are going to get a much better picture of her tonight.

The debates won't matter much from the enthusiasm angle, but they're going to sway a lot of undecideds who are reliable voters, who have been waiting for this and ignoring the political news to date. And those voters are going to Clinton.



/pundit
 
D

Dierce

Member
PBY said:
War, wall-street and weed.
Click to expand...

And by thinking they are on some higher moral ground they allow the bastard to take over who will undoubtedly appoint someone who will fights against state rights for legal marijuana, lead to international conflict due to ignorance and a perception by aggressors that the US is withdrawn. And this goes without saying how he is the most corrupt and unprepared candidate of all time.

But republicans only care about their tax cuts and dreaming about being millionaires through some magical inheritance that is tax free. Oh and the bigotry but don't call them out on that, they get really pissed. What a bunch of despicable turds.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
royalan said:
It's not that. Hillary had decent millennial support before Bernie came along and spoke more directly to them.

Hillary needs to talk to her voters. It's as simple as that.

September was supposed to be the month that started, but it's come in fits and starts. First she had to take time off the trail because of pneumonia. Then she finally gave a speech aimed at millenials...but the air got sucked out of that by terrorism. THEN she took another week off from hard campaigning to prepare for the debates.

October needs to be about the Obama coalition. Point blank period. Fuck Republicans. Fuck moderates. Get out there and stump where you need to stump. Hard.
Click to expand...
First of all "talk to her voters" is what every candidate does. It's meaningless advice.

And secondly, the Obama coalition requires moderates so I like her strategy more than this.
 
K

kevin1025

Banned
Hello, I would like to book a one-way ticket to the moon on November 8th. Oh, it's also in danger of Trump? Oh right, his October policy about a moon base, I completely forgot.

I stand by my debate prediction that Trump will come out as Teleprompter Don, but will slowly be whittled down to Nightmare Don at the 2/3rds mark. But by that point the media will be so impressed he didn't wipe his ass across the carpet that it won't matter as much as someone would hope.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
Why don't they want to vote for hillary?
Click to expand...

We've all been over this before and it doesn't matter whether it's true or not, just that it's the case.

Bad PR, a perception of secrecy and lying; a perception of being corrupt, calculating, and too moderate; and now her campaign's total lack of interest in promoting herself. She's not using all of her resources the best she could (why isn't Kaine being sent out to speak in Spanish more?) while Trump is running around tiling up his base. We can scream "but TRUMP!!!" all we want but it's clearly not working. This is a voting bloc that has always, since the voting age was lowered, put a huge value on authenticity, and they find it lacking.
 
P

PBY

Banned
Dierce said:
And by thinking they are on some higher moral ground they allow the bastard to take over who will undoubtedly appoint someone who will fights against state rights for legal marijuana, lead to international conflict due to ignorance and a perception by aggressors that the US is withdrawn. And this goes without saying how he is the most corrupt and unprepared candidate of all time.

But republicans only care about their tax cuts and dreaming about being millionaires through some magical inheritance that is tax free. Oh and the bigotry but don't call them out on that, they get really pissed. What a bunch of despicable turds.
Click to expand...

Totally agree.

The reality is, unfortunately, that people want to vote for someone they trust will champion their interests - that's a hell of a lot stronger than voting against someone.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
PLUM LINE: Florida?

PLOUFFE: I think she’ll do well in the suburban I-4 corridor. I think she’ll do better with Cuban voters than we did. She’ll do very well with the Puerto Rican and Colombian vote. She might even over-perform us a little bit in the panhandle. My understanding is the campaign feels very confident about their own numbers.
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PLUM LINE: Colorado?

PLOUFFE: It’s a state where the Hispanic vote is of great importance. She’s probably going to win it by more than we did. There are a lot of college educated suburban swing voters who have swung between the parties through the years. The Denver suburbs, I think she’ll win them probably by more than we won them in 2012. The Latino margins she’ll rack up — and her over-performance with swing suburban women and even men — that’s why Colorado and Virginia are so tough for him.
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PLUM LINE: Who do you think the undecided voters are?

PLOUFFE: My sense is that Trump has got more of his vote in the bank than Clinton does. There are still a decent number of Latinos who are undecided. She’ll win a vast majority of those. Almost every African American undecided voter will side with her. There’s a good chance that college educated voters — and this is where the debates are important — will break decisively in her favor.

The debates are a stage that should suit her more than the day-to-day campaigning. She has an opportunity to convince some of those undecided voters, but more important, to give people who might not be sure they’re going to vote — but who would support her — a little more passion. She’s got the opportunity to talk directly to people. Even millennial voters.
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PLUM LINE: The debates have to do with two things: getting college educated whites to break for her, and making sure they’re converting registered voters — i.e., Latinos, African Americans, and young voters — into likely or certain voters. What has to happen at the debates?

PLOUFFE: People have to feel more passionate about her — not just scared of Trump. That will work with younger voters, African Americans, Latinos. And I think that works with swing voters too — they want to see why she’s doing this.

She has to create more excitement around her candidacy. And there has to be clear divide on the question of who is fit to be president. If you can come out of that with more people saying — “You know what? I really liked what I saw. I have a better sense of her and what motivates her. And she’s clearly head and shoulders above Trump in terms of both her ideas and her fitness for office” — then that will be a victory. Monday night is, to me, 75 percent of the rest of the campaign. It’s a remarkable opportunity.
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...inish-the-job-tonight/?utm_term=.16a49823933c
 
M

Mighty Chin

Banned
I'm officially in full on denial. I don't believe that this race is as close as it is. I reject it. Reject it I say! I truly believe this will be a huge win for Hillary.

Wake me on Nov 9th
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
hipsterpants said:
ignore 538
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I've been very critical of 538 but after a single poll moved their model 7% (I know their last poll had Clinton ahead but that was in early August) I just can't take them seriously. Move it a couple of percent sure, but 7? That's absurd.

Plus we don't need them to tell us that things are really close right now.
 
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