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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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U

User 463088

Banned
PBY said:
How can you say this? This is denial Adam.
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Because. It's. Still. True!

YouGov has shown a 1 point race in Colorado in their two most recent polls. Again, this is probably due to their method, which, throughout the primary, always understated Hillary's support. Gravis and Emerson...I won't dignify with a response Especially since, you know, Emerson is a landline online, and Gravis is being hired by white nationalists.

Her campaign and its data game are a fuckton smarter than all of us. They know what they're doing. Just because one of us may not like or think they're doing the right thing.....we have basically smoke and mirrors to go on.

I get sick and tired of people acting like we know better than the people in the campaign. We don't! Not even a little bit. So, let's not pretend that we do.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
balladofwindfishes said:
His ceiling has been the low 40s, consistently. I don't know where the 35 came from. He hasn't ever been that low.

Has Trump ever broken, in an aggregate, above 43?
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NYCmetsfan said:
No it's been 43-44. Let's not rewrite the past. He was hitting that after the conventions when the first bed wetting started
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I'm referencing all the way back to the primaries--people were saying the same thing about how he "couldn't win" those, too. That's where the 35 came from.
 
P

PBY

Banned
#NEW CNN/ORC Head-2-Head Polls *RV's*:

COLORADO:
Clinton 50 (+5)
Trump 45

PENNSYLVANIA:
Clinton 50 (+5)
Trump 45

Posted?
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
samn said:
'Unprecedented' doesn't mean 'won't happen'. It's what's suggested by the polls.

It only results in Trump losing by a knife edge. A small change in the polls would put him on break even chances to win.

If you have to use this kind of twisted logic to make yourself feel comfortable Trump won't win then you should be very worried indeed.
Click to expand...

Trump has to do more to win. It won't be enough to receive historic white turnout, which I'm not convinced is actually going to happen, especially when most polls show Hillary winning educated whites and white women. So now he doesn't just need a huge white turnout, he needs a huge white turnout in a specific demographic, uneducated white males have to have turnouts we haven't seen in as far back I as have knowledge of.

And I don't see where a "small change in the polls" would come from. Hillary has had two campaign ending scandals (emails and almost dying) and she's still winning. She's always been winning. She's never stopped winning. There's been highs and lows, but those highs and lows were always her winning.

So what's going to happen to get that number to move more towards Trump? The white turnout is at the absolute maximum it will ever reasonably hit. He loses. So he needs to do more. But Hillary at her absolute worst, and he still loses. A terrorist attack. He's still losing. The FBI calls Hillary an idiot. He's still losing. She faints and has to be wheeled out in a disturbing video, he's still losing.

So what does Trump do to not stop losing, since obviously Hillary doing bad things doesn't really stop her from winning? What changes in the race happen that we haven't already seen happen? On Hillary's side, we have three debates to contrast how big of an idiot Trump is. We have more money and groundwork laid going into the home stretch. We have an extremely popular president about to start a country wide campaign tour. We have a popular vice president about to do the same. We have two popular, very liberal senators out there.

Trump has Newt Gingrich. No infrastructure, and is tapping into generic RNC resources that should probably be better used trying to make sure they don't lose the senate.
 
D

Doc Holliday

SPOILER: Columbus finds America
adam387 said:
These are literally the polls you've been betwetting about all morning.
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hah, I actually thought they were closers and I was still complaining about the bedwetting.

PS my dad just flew in from abroad to cast his absentee ballot, too bad we live in new York.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
Trump has to do more to win. It won't be enough to receive historic white turnout, which I'm not convinced is actually going to happen, especially when most polls show Hillary winning educated whites and white women. So now he doesn't just need a huge white turnout, he needs a huge white turnout in a specific demographic, uneducated white males have to have turnouts we haven't seen in as far back I as have knowledge of.

And I don't see where a "small change in the polls" would come from. Hillary has had two campaign ending scandals (emails and almost dying) and she's still winning. She's always been winning. She's never stopped winning. There's been highs and lows, but those highs and lows were always her winning.

So what's going to happen to get that number to move more towards Trump? The white turnout is at the absolute maximum it will ever reasonably hit. He loses. So he needs to do more. But Hillary at her absolute worst, and he still loses. A terrorist attack. He's still losing. The FBI calls Hillary an idiot. He's still losing. She faints and has to be wheeled out in a disturbing video, he's still losing.

So what does Trump do to not stop losing, since obviously Hillary doing bad things doesn't really stop her from winning? What changes in the race happen that we haven't already seen happen? On Hillary's side, we have three debates to contrast how big of an idiot Trump is. We have more money and groundwork laid going into the home stretch. We have an extremely popular president about to start a country wide campaign tour. We have a popular vice president about to do the same. We have two popular, very liberal senators out there.

Trump has Newt Gingrich. No infrastructure, and is tapping into generic RNC resources that should probably be better used trying to make sure they don't lose the senate.
Click to expand...

Ding, Ding, Ding. We have a winner.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
People don't realize that Hillary and the DNC's GOTV operation will only be used to bus secret Stein supporters to the polls and carry the Greens to victory in the election.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Guys we knew this election would be close in the polls at least. The country is polarized. There is just large percentage of people that will vote along party lines no matter what.

The job is to convince those undecideds/3rd party voters. Today starts the last real push for that. She's still winning. It's up to Trump to chance the trajectory. We know this week after the debate she's going to be in major key states holding rallies and pushing early voting.

Don't know what her schedule looks like next week but this week is clearly very serious for her. Next week starts October which will be the last push. I suspect the campaign will be in overdrive and you'll see her surrogates and stumpers out in full force pushing the same message.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Clintons getting smashed because of the LV screens. That's ok. Sucks but ok. We have to fix it. She can start by having bill Clinton die.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
CNN's likely voter screens have been insanely Trump friendly all cycle (I've also noticed they continue to struggle with polling younger people). Looking at their numbers, they do not surprise me at all.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Is there someone who gobbled up Trump's cock more than Guliani? Is he trying to get some sort of cabinent position? He should know better after how shafted Christie got.
 
N

nature boy

Member
HylianTom said:
He's right about where I am. I'm just wondering about the timing on Election Night (translation: will we know from East Coast states, or will Colorado seal this?)
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Well he originally predicted a 350 win, so while I like Plouffe he's revising his predictions to "Trump has a hard time getting to 270 so Hillary POTUS".
 
P

Pixieking

Banned
Brinbe said:
To her credit I did see that Hillary children ad get some play. So there's that.
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Errr... Is that a legit ad that's playing? I've only seen the 30 second version, so that was a bit... Shocking. Also, not very well-edited, I think.

bangbang i'm a timpani said:
this whole trump has a ceiling thesis is based on literally nothing
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It's based on reason, surely? He's anti-abortion, pro-gun rights, pro-Russia, pro-Israel, pro-White Power, racist, sexist, has no policies, has committed adultery, and has no impulse control. Also he comes across as a lech and a creep. Anyone with an ounce of sense who isn't a wanker (overtly or covertly) is voting for Hillary. (And I'm counting the NeverHillary contingent as wankers, because obviously...). So his ceiling is... wankers? :D
 
S

SexyFish

Banned
ggIhJa8.jpg
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Snapchat why.

Just wanted to take secret nudes and this is what I get?
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Y2Kev said:
Clintons getting smashed because of the LV screens. That's ok. Sucks but ok. We have to fix it. She can start by having bill Clinton die.
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"Are you registered democrat?"
"Yes"
"Are you voting for Hillary?"
"ehh mmm.. i dunno. Maybe?"
*Fails LV screen*
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
And on the question of Ceilings

Plinko said:
I'm referencing all the way back to the primaries--people were saying the same thing about how he "couldn't win" those, too. That's where the 35 came from.
Click to expand...




42-43 by whyamihere http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=213293775&postcount=8516

42-44 by CCS http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=212229120&postcount=18677

42-43 by me http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=212164170&postcount=17860

Lets look at RCP

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...s/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.html

we've been sober about this for awhile. He's at 43.8
 
T

Teggy

Member
Pixieking said:
Errr... Is that a legit ad that's playing? I've only seen the 30 second version, so that was a bit... Shocking. Also, not very well-edited, I think.
Click to expand...

No, that is clearly something someone did to try and fool people, it has less than 50 views.

And I don't get this at all. Hillary had pneumonia for a few days. Trump has had lie after lie, ties to Russia come out, issues with his foundation, and on and on. And he's gaining. This, most of all is what has me in a fetal position.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
RCP has a months' worth of data, though, and Trump was performing worse in August than he is now. In every single poll conducted over the last week, Trump has been polling at a minimum of 44%. Never mind a ceiling, that's beginning to become his floor.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
I've seen a bunch about how shitty this election is for the horrible choices.

This narrative really bothers me because clinton really hasn't done anything to deserve this characterization.

She's a great candidate and will make a wonderful president but in the name of fairness we're lambasting her achievements because emails and charity
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
PBY said:
#NEW CNN/ORC Head-2-Head Polls *RV's*:

COLORADO:
Clinton 50 (+5)
Trump 45

PENNSYLVANIA:
Clinton 50 (+5)
Trump 45

Posted?
Click to expand...

Likely voters are what were posted this morning. You posted the RV totals.
 
B

banefirelord

Banned
Wondering if I should place a large bet on Trump winning...that way if Clinton wins I'll be too happy to care about losing my money and if Trump wins I'll be able to buy a plane ticket out of this shithole country.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Crab said:
RCP has a months' worth of data, though, and Trump was performing worse in August than he is now. In every single poll conducted over the last week, Trump has been polling at a minimum of 44%. Never mind a ceiling, that's beginning to become his floor.
Click to expand...

159-Shifting%20Goal%20Posts%20-%20Aug2.jpg



Lets make our period one that excludes Reuters, NBC and McClatchy/Marist.!

And yes trump was always gonna get around 45-46 on election day, its not a surprise LV screens can push him to around this since they weight turnout. The 3rd parties were never gonna last nationally at least.
 
T

Trurl

Banned
I think that she could be a great a president if it weren't for the fact she's going to be thwarted by the GOP in an unprecedented way and not helped by the public and media.
 
R

royalan

Member
I'm not going to wet the bed, these latest polls are expected.

It's the enthusiasm that has me worried. Every waking minute Trump and his campaign is focused on his voters. Even when he flat out lies its done in a way to keep his voters pumped up. These people are chomping at the bit to vote for him. Trump gives no shits about wooing the left.

I don't see anything resembling this level of enthusiasm on our side. I've volunteered for the last 3 elections. We're talking sub-Kerry levels of enthusiasm here, at least in Philly from what I've seen. I think the strategy of trying to separate Trumpism from "real conservatism", codding Republicans, has come at the expense of focusing wholeheartedly on the Obama coalition, and I don't think she's gotten much for that in return.
 
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