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[Deleted member 231381]

Lets make our period one that excludes Reuters, NBC and McClatchy/Marist.!

I'm not the one shifting the goalposts by saying that Trump cannot possibly go above 43% and ignoring that the last five national polls in a row have all shown him above that, some comfortably so.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I'm not going to wet the bed, these latest polls are expected.

It's the enthusiasm that has me worried. Every waking minute Trump and his campaign is focused on his voters. Even when he flat out lies its done in a way to keep his voters pumped up. These people are chomping at the bit to vote for him. Trump gives no shits about wooing the left.

I don't see anything resembling this level of enthusiasm on our side. I've volunteered for the last 3 elections. We're talking sub-Kerry levels of enthusiasm here, at least in Philly from what I've seen. I think the strategy of trying to separate Trumpism from "real conservatism", codding Republicans, has come at the expense of focusing wholeheartedly on the Obama coalition, and I don't think she's gotten much for that in return.

Trumps holding rallys Clinton is organizing.

If you're worried go make some calls or canvas.

I know. I didn't say that was wrong at all. I wasn't making the point that people were wrong--just pointing the track it took.

This is kinda trumpish

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I'm not going to wet the bed, these latest polls are expected.

It's the enthusiasm that has me worried. Every waking minute Trump and his campaign is focused on his voters. Even when he flat out lies its done in a way to keep his voters pumped up. These people are chomping at the bit to vote for him. Trump gives no shits about wooing the left.

I don't see anything resembling this level of enthusiasm on our side. I've volunteered for the last 3 elections. We're talking sub-Kerry levels of enthusiasm here, at least in Philly from what I've seen. I think the strategy of trying to separate Trumpism from "real conservatism", codding Republicans, has come at the expense of focusing wholeheartedly on the Obama coalition, and I don't think she's gotten much for that in return.

Ayup.

 

[Dierce]

Wondering if I should place a large bet on Trump winning...that way if Clinton wins I'll be too happy to care about losing my money and if Trump wins I'll be able to buy a plane ticket out of this shithole country.

I thought the same thing but there are few places in the world to escape to. If he wins it would set a trend that will consume other countries. Nationalistic fascists will start wining elections throughout Europe and eventually most developed countries will be run by isolationist xenophobes.

All it takes is one asshole using nuclear weapons to end the deterrence theory. Let's not forget that orange turd is supportive of doing worse things than torture to supposed US enemies. Free trade and globalization is also an important deterrent against warfare.

 

[NYCmetsfan]

I'm not the one shifting the goalposts by saying that Trump cannot possibly go above 43% and ignoring that the last five national polls in a row have all shown him above that, some comfortably so.

I'm saying his ceiling in polling is 43-44. He's inched up to 43.8. I don't freak out about individual polls

 

[royalan]

Trumps holding rallys Clinton is organizing.

If you're worried go make some calls or canvas.

You could read my post. I volunteer twice a week for the Clinton campaign. Knocking on doors, phonebanking, standing on street corners.

So you barking at the wrong poodle with this one.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

I'm saying his ceiling in polling is 43-44. He's inched up to 43.8. I don't freak out about individual polls

His ceiling polling is not 44 when he has had five polls in a row above that. Five polls in a row is not an individual poll.

This isn't rocket science!

EDIT: But fine, whatever. By tomorrow, the 39% from Reuters, the 41% from Marist and NBC, and the 44% from the Economist will have dropped off and Trump will be above 44% on RCP. So fine, if you're going to be an ass, we'll just wait 24 hours and then I reserve the right to say I told you so.

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

I'm confident Trump's ceiling is no higher than 54-55.

So true!

 

[Spoiled Milk]

I'm not going to wet the bed, these latest polls are expected.

It's the enthusiasm that has me worried.

 

[Plinko]

Please point out in my post where I was saying people were wrong. The conversation earlier was about how Trump keeps getting independent/undecideds. That post was showing how it grew. If I wasn't clear, I apologize. Do I think you guys are underselling his chances? Yes. But that doesn't mean I was saying everyone was wrong. Just showing the track over time.

 

[Blader]

Why do people keep saying Hillary blew her post-convention lead? That wasn't entirely *her* lead. A huge part of that was Trump attacking the Khans in the press + Manafort's Russian connections. Once enough voters forgot about both of those things somehow, the gap shrunk. Yes, Hillary spent August more on fundraising than on the trail, but even if she spent the whole month giving stump speeches, what would that have to do with the Khan or Manafort controversies?

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Hot damn, that Selzer poll dropped Clinton 7% on 538 (she's at 51.5)

 

[royalan]

wut

Being worried is not the same as wetting the bed. Frankly, we should all be a little concerned at this point.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

Why do people keep saying Hillary blew her post-convention lead? That wasn't entirely *her* lead. A huge part of that was Trump attacking the Khans in the press + Manafort's Russian connections. Once enough voters forgot about both of those things somehow, the gap shrunk. Yes, Hillary spent August more on fundraising than on the trail, but even if she spent the whole month giving stump speeches, what would that have to do with the Khan or Manafort controversies?

She blew it by removing herself from the conversation completely.

 

[Boke1879]

Yall gotta chill.

 

[User 463088]

Hot damn, that Selzer poll dropped Clinton 7% on 538 (she's at 51.5)

lol

 

[GutsOfThor]

Are you comparing David plouffe and sock moris

lol no. I just felt an eerie similarity in what was being said.

 

[Y2Kev]

Hot damn, that Selzer poll dropped Clinton 7% on 538 (she's at 51.5)

That is insane.

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

I personally find the NeverTrumpers that have now broken Trump Cowards.

 

[IAmAnAgnostic]

According to 538, if the election was held today Trump would be the more likely winner. (55% vs 45% chances) http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

 

[Spoiled Milk]

Please point out in my post where I was saying people were wrong. The conversation earlier was about how Trump keeps getting independent/undecideds. That post was showing how it grew. If I wasn't clear, I apologize. Do I think you guys are underselling his chances? Yes. But that doesn't mean I was saying everyone was wrong. Just showing the track over time.

lol. I just don't know why you brought up 35.

Being worried is not the same as wetting the bed. Frankly, we should all be a little concerned at this point.

Just having some fun your post went from "there's no reason to panic!" to "geez, I'm worried..." in a second flat.

 

[Pixieking]

Being worried is not the same as wetting the bed. Frankly, we should all be a little concerned at this point.

Which is the plus-side to polls showing it's closer now, I think. You want enthusiasm? You want a blow-out? The best-way to achieve that is get the public thinking that their vote matters, and this "close-race" story is going to do that. I can see a fundamental shift in polls coming mid-October, when people realise that there's an actual chance Trump could win. That will get voter turn-out on the day, and enthusiasm for Hillary before the day.

 

[BigAl1992]

Hot damn, that Selzer poll dropped Clinton 7% on 538 (she's at 51.5)

How can one poll have that much influence on a prediction model? That just doesn't make sense.

 

[DrForester]

Hot damn, that Selzer poll dropped Clinton 7% on 538 (she's at 51.5)

Diablosing for another 42 days...

And then begins diablosing for 8 years.

 

[shinra-bansho]

"Dead heat" (1).

(1) CNN, 20Forever.

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

According to 538, if the election was held today Trump would be the more likely winner. (55% vs 45% chances) http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

Adjusted Trump +10 Trumps

 

[AniHawk]

She blew it by removing herself from the conversation completely.

and she didn't really have a comeback in september either. whenever she was mentioned, it was usually bad press. the only positive thing i can think of was between two ferns and maybe the deplorables comment having a sorta-net gain.

i am worried. it should be natural to be concerned when things are legitimately this close considering trump is a maniac. hopefully tonight the debates remind people what their choices really are. i think that all three debates will have an effect of highlighting the differences between the two to an insane degree. except maybe that last one since chris wallace is a shit.

 

[User 463088]

No one in their right mind can defend Bad Nate's model at this point.

Two polls come out, one showing Hillary ahead, one showing Trump...and she magically loses 7 points in the "model"?

k.

 

[disastermouse]

I think it's unlikely she can convince young people to vote. I think she should switch to neoconservative and try and win the votes of white people. She should start by calling Obama the n word.

Why do we not have 'like' or 'upvote' buttons?

 

[Zukkoyaki]

I'm assuming it's because they rate Selzer at A+ and their last national poll (in early August) had Clinton +4.

But last week when an A+ pollster dropped a great Florida poll for Clinton, Nate made it the 7th highest weighed poll in their Florida sample.

It's almost poetic.

 

[shinra-bansho]

I will enjoy Wang, godcohn, Predictwise and Tyler commentary on this movement.

 

[Ziltoidia 9]

Starting to get real now. Tight poll numbers in swing states and the debate tonight. Some people think the debates wont mean much, but I think they do.

 

[Plinko]

No one in their right mind can defend Bad Nate's model at this point.

Two polls come out, one showing Hillary ahead, one showing Trump...and she magically loses 7 points in the "model"?

k.

Absolutely correct. Bizarre the way he overvalues certain polls. Further cementing my view ESPN told him to make this a dead heat the whole way.

 

[Brinbe]

It's okay to be worried. It would be ignoring reality to not be worried at this point.

And I bet the people in that campaign are worried too.

 

[Aceun]

Aloha PoliGAF!

Is there a place I can find a first debate Bingo for tonight???

 

[NYCmetsfan]

She's literally got 270 votes in bad nate's model but she's only at 52?

Trump has to run the table and flip one of those

Trash

 

[sazzy]

nowcast

 

[Finale Fireworker]

Diablosing for another 42 days...

And then begins diablosing for 8 years.

We aren't using "Diablos" like that anymore per the explicit request of Diablos himself. Please find alternate ways to characterize our collective panic.

 

[Blader]

She blew it by removing herself from the conversation completely.

I'm quite sure Hillary's campaign pounced on both the Khan and Manafort controversies, blasting Trump for attacking a Gold Star family and repeatedly exposing how Putin was trying to put his thumb on the scales for the election.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Selzer has a very high rating, and Nate uses a trendline model. Selzer's last poll was Clinton 50%, Trump 44%. So the trend is Clinton (-4), Trump (+2), which is a heavy anti-Clinton trend; the average trend has only been Clinton (-1.6). It's unsurprising it had a big impact.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

"Trend lines" is getting dangerously close to being this year's "unskewing"

 

[NYCmetsfan]

nowcast

SHE HAS 270 IN THIS MODEL!

HOW THE HELL WOULD HE WIN?

 

[CoffeeJanitor]

According to 538, if the election was held today Trump would be the more likely winner. (55% vs 45% chances) http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/#now

hm. Day of a pivotal point of campaign

Moves to Trump in a big way

Okay nate

 

[Deleted member 231381]

SHE HAS 270 in the model!

HOW THE HELL WOULD HE WIN?

Because the median result and the mean result are different values?

PoliGAF losing their minds in here, smh.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

nowcast

In this map, Hillary is president.

 

[IAmAnAgnostic]

SHE HAS 270 in the model!

HOW THE HELL WOULD HE WIN?

I assume because many light blue swing states are very close? Colorado is 52-47 chances for example.

 

[DrForester]

We are using "Diablos" like that anymore per the explicit request of Diablos himself. Please find alternate ways to characterize our collective panic.

We're fucked.

 

[sazzy]

On one hand, the first debate hasn't even started. Reminds of the time just after RNC and just before the DNC.

On the other hand, it may be time to panic?

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

hey let's all post the suddenly-useful NowCast

Absolutely correct. Bizarre the way he overvalues certain polls. Further cementing my view ESPN told him to make this a dead heat the whole way.

I doubt it is this overt as it rarely ever is. It is possible Silver is doing some fitting (consciously or not) because he feels like there is a lot of uncertainty this year and he got wobbled by the primaries.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 16m16 minutes ago
The latest polling is consistent with a Clinton lead of only ~1% nationally. State firewall breaking up. Trend lines awful.

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 2m2 minutes ago
Nat'l polls this weekend: Trump +4, Trump +2, Trump +1, Clinton +1, Clinton +2, Clinton +2, Clinton +3. Dead heat.

.