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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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C

clevbrowns94

Member
Zukkoyaki said:
I've been very critical of 538 but after a single poll moved their model 7% (I know their last poll had Clinton ahead but that was in early August) I just can't take them seriously. Move it a couple of percent sure, but 7? That's absurd.

Plus we don't need them to tell us that things are really close right now.
Click to expand...

And the funny thing is that the Nowcast has Trump at 55 percent chance of winning, yet the electoral map has Hillary still winning CO, PA, VA, etc. and having enough to break 270 and win. That makes sense.
 
R

royalan

Member
NYCmetsfan said:
First of all "talk to her voters" is what every candidate does. It's meaningless advice.
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Funny, because it's meaningless advice that Plouffe himself gave the last time he was on Keeping It 1600.

You know, since he's mentioned so often in here.


Edit: He even says it in the interview someone quoted on just this page!
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
If you can come out of that with more people saying — “You know what? I really liked what I saw. I have a better sense of her and what motivates her. And she’s clearly head and shoulders above Trump in terms of both her ideas and her fitness for office” — then that will be a victory.
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I agree with this entirely. And I think the bar for this is incredibly low.

We've had fairly consistent polling showing that undecideds are mostly Obama supporters who dislike Trump greatly, so it's Hillary's pool for the taking.

And just having the two of them on stage at the same time will show the contrasts between them and just how out of his league Trump is.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
sazzy said:
nowcast

TXBt4vU.png
Click to expand...
I have a feeling this image is going to be mocked for years to come. Trash Nate is done.
 
M

mackaveli

Member
I'm sort of diablosing a little bit not because of the polls but because the debate is coming up and with each hour I worry that Clinton will disappoint in some way. I'm nervous that in 90 minutes Clinton may lose a little bit of composure and that will look bad even if Trump acts like a buffoon the media will just show that Clinton was fazed for a little bit.

Trump acting like a buffoon is normal so the media probably say that's Trump being Trump but the fact that for that one second Clinton was on edge and that how can she represent us on the world scale.

THe double standard I think will hurt Clinton tonight. I hope I am wrong.
 
D

dramatis

Member
Millions in U.S. Climb Out of Poverty, at Long Last [NY Times]
Not that long ago, Alex Caicedo was stuck working a series of odd jobs and watching his 1984 Chevy Nova cough its last breaths. He could make $21 an hour at the Johnny Rockets food stand at FedEx Field when the Washington Redskins were playing, but the work was spotty.

Today, Mr. Caicedo is an assistant manager at a pizzeria in Gaithersburg, Md., with an annual salary of $40,000 and health benefits. And he is getting ready to move his wife and children out of his mother-in-law’s house and into their own place. Doubling up has been a lifesaver, Mr. Caicedo said, “but nobody just wants to move in with their in-laws.”

The Caicedos are among the 3.5 million Americans who were able to raise their chins above the poverty line last year, according to census data released this month. More than seven years after the recession ended, employers are finally being compelled to reach deeper into the pools of untapped labor, creating more jobs, especially among retailers, restaurants and hotels, and paying higher wages to attract workers and meet new minimum wage requirements.
Click to expand...
Poverty declined among every group. But African-Americans and Hispanics — who account for more than 45 percent of those below the poverty line of $24,300 for a family of four in most states — experienced the largest improvement.
Click to expand...
 
B

Boke1879

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
I agree with this entirely. And I think the bar for this is incredibly low.

We've had fairly consistent polling showing that undecideds are mostly Obama supporters who dislike Trump greatly, so it's Hillary's pool for the taking.

And just having the two of them on stage at the same time will show the contrasts between them and just how out of his league Trump is.
Click to expand...

Pretty much. She has to show contrast and show passion about her policies. Like I said. Hit Trump when it matters, but just show your vast knowledge on everything really.
 
P

PBY

Banned
mackaveli said:
I'm sort of diablosing a little bit not because of the polls but because the debate is coming up and with each hour I worry that Clinton will disappoint in some way. I'm nervous that in 90 minutes Clinton may lose a little bit of composure and that will look bad even if Trump acts like a buffoon the media will just show that Clinton was fazed for a little bit.

Trump acting like a buffoon is normal so the media probably say that's Trump being Trump but the fact that for that one second Clinton was on edge and that how can she represent us on the world scale.

THe double standard I think will hurt Clinton tonight. I hope I am wrong.
Click to expand...

Eh Hill will be fine tonight, really think she'll be great.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
I step away for a couple of days and come back to find the bed sheets, the pillows, the mattress completely saturated and a giant and growing puddle of piss on the floor.

I hope you guys are rehydrating ready for tonight.

As ever I won't be watching because who I think wins isn't what's important, it's the coverage and who other people think won. Remember more people will read about it than watch it, so that's key.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
God damn, this place went into overdrive overnight. Just remember, regardless of how tonight goes down, regardless of whether Clinton trips on the way out to the lectern, regardless of whether Trump pulls a George W and has secretly been studying policy for months and shows a command of the issues, regardless of whether Trump gets a 5 point polling bump out of this...

Elon Musk is still announcing the Mars mission architecture tomorrow and revealing the Interplanetary Transport System / Big Fucking Rocket. All is well when you let the light of Elon wash over you. Elon is life. Elon is love. Praise be Elon.

o-ELON-MUSK-405-facebook.jpg
 
R

RustyNails

Member
mackaveli said:
I'm sort of diablosing a little bit not because of the polls but because the debate is coming up and with each hour I worry that Clinton will disappoint in some way. I'm nervous that in 90 minutes Clinton may lose a little bit of composure and that will look bad even if Trump acts like a buffoon the media will just show that Clinton was fazed for a little bit.

Trump acting like a buffoon is normal so the media probably say that's Trump being Trump but the fact that for that one second Clinton was on edge and that how can she represent us on the world scale.

THe double standard I think will hurt Clinton tonight. I hope I am wrong.
Click to expand...
What a mess.

Clinton has debated at least 40 times.

Trump has never faced off a real opponent in a debate under a bright spotlight. And contrary to popular opinion, he did horrible in all of the RNC debates. He melted under the sweet, calm sunflower petals from Matt Lauer.

And your conclusion is Hillary is going to blow it?
 
C

Cyanity

Banned
Bowdz said:
God damn, this place went into overdrive overnight. Just remember, regardless of how tonight goes down, regardless of whether Clinton trips on the way out to the lectern, regardless of whether Trump pulls a George W and has secretly been studying policy for months and shows a command of the issues, regardless of whether Trump gets a 5 point polling bump out of this...

Elon Musk is still announcing the Mars mission architecture tomorrow and revealing the Interplanetary Transport System / Big Fucking Rocket. All is well when you let the light of Elon wash over you. Elon is life. Elon is love. Praise be Elon.

o-ELON-MUSK-405-facebook.jpg
Click to expand...


Right here baby. All hail Lord Musk, future leader of the free world.
 
M

mackaveli

Member
PBY said:
Eh Hill will be fine tonight, really think she'll be great.
Click to expand...

Don't get me wrong I know Hillary will do great like she did for benghazi etc., I just worry if any small hiccup (no matter how small or insignificant) will be portrayed by the media as a major blunder compared to Trump who is a dumpster fire. I don't trust the media to do it's job considering the last year of coverage and how Trump get's away unscathed in the media.
 
G

Grief.exe

Member
Benchmark Politics posted their latest map

https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/780411336098394112

Bowdz said:
God damn, this place went into overdrive overnight. Just remember, regardless of how tonight goes down, regardless of whether Clinton trips on the way out to the lectern, regardless of whether Trump pulls a George W and has secretly been studying policy for months and shows a command of the issues, regardless of whether Trump gets a 5 point polling bump out of this...

Elon Musk is still announcing the Mars mission architecture tomorrow and revealing the Interplanetary Transport System / Big Fucking Rocket. All is well when you let the light of Elon wash over you. Elon is life. Elon is love. Praise be Elon.

o-ELON-MUSK-405-facebook.jpg
Click to expand...

Elon spends his money on projects he deems will extend the life of the human race the longest.
Luckey spends his money on spicy white supremacist memes.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
The only thing I think anyone should be worried about for tonight is the low bar set for Trump.

I have no worries about her debating skills. Also get ready for email questions they'll happen. Hopefully they get it out the way early.
 
M

mackaveli

Member
RustyNails said:
What a mess.

Clinton has debated at least 40 times.

Trump has never faced off a real opponent in a debate under a bright spotlight. And contrary to popular opinion, he did horrible in all of the RNC debates. He melted under the sweet, calm sunflower petals from Matt Lauer.

And your conclusion is Hillary is going to blow it?
Click to expand...

Did I say she would blow it? I said she may have a small hiccup or gaffe after 90 minutes and that the media will blow it up to something bigger then it is. Clinton has to be perfect in the media eyes. Trump just has to show up.
 
C

Cyanity

Banned
I think people in here are forgetting how awful Trump is when he's off his teleprompter meds. The guy is clearly unhinged and America is going to see that aspect of his personality in all its glory tonight.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
RustyNails said:
And your conclusion is Hillary is going to blow it?
Click to expand...
I think it's more... if she raises her voice a bit too much... or gestures and points in a particular way... or her split screen face looks haughty... or she wears the wrong colour... or she goes to the bathroom. It will be seen badly.

Whereas no one really says anything about that stupid furby face gif. Or Trump's constant interruption. The joke is he would have to throw up on stage to underperform. I think he could throw up and still meet expectations.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
So last time Trump tried to debate "serious" he came across as pretty boring and his best asset, his charisma, was completely gone. He was also on stage with two idiots who similarly had no plans at all (POSTAGE STAMP DEATH TO IRS) and so him just spewing nothing while acting "calm" didn't really change anything or help or hurt him in any way.

But tonight, when he's up there, without his charisma, spewing nonsense, someone else is going to be next to him. That someone is going to disagree with him. That person likes Obama. That person has piles of policy for anything and everything and has the entire thing memorized. That policy is pragmatic and easy to digest as workable.

It's an entirely different ball game. Just pretending to be dry and "serious" doesn't work when the other person is always serious and has serious policy. It's wasting Trump's only real positive, that he's better at working a crowd and better at saying absolutely nothing while seeming like he said something. And then you're just left with the most qualified person for the presidency in a generation, and a husk of a generic Republican.

And if he doesn't act "calm" and "serious" we're in for a real treat.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
mackaveli said:
Did I say she would blow it? I said she may have a small hiccup or gaffe after 90 minutes and that the media will blow it up to something bigger then it is. Clinton has to be perfect in the media eyes. Trump just has to show up.
Click to expand...
My point is Hillary is not oblivious to those things. Being under the spotlight in a game dominated by men, she knows the unspoken rules as well.
 
M

mackaveli

Member
PBY said:
Preview of tonight:

Trump: Lies
Hillary: That's not true, because X, Y Z
Trump: It is true, lock her up!
Lester: Moving on...
Click to expand...

This is horrible because if 100 million people watch the debate how many will stay and watch the post gam show where hopefully the media points out all the lies that Trump says. Does it matter if Trump lies and get's fact checked in the post game show if no one watches?
 
S

Sianos

Member
You know how Trump sounds at his rallies? That's how he sounds when he's feeling confident and good about himself, in his element playing to the crowd. That is Trump at his best.

Imagine what he'll be like with his confidence in tatters with no maelstrom of hate to feed and play off of. Sure, we'll get reports of DEAD HEAT from the Bad Nates of the world, but it will not be a good look for Trump.
 
Z

Zukkoyaki

Member
Ignatz Mouse said:
I think Nate Silver is unfairly roasted here sometimes, but with that image I Can't Even anymore.
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It's easy to dislike the dude when he goes on Twitter saying things like, "Other forecasters have been playing catch up to us for weeks."

It's like dude, get over yourself. You can tell he bought into his own hype.
 
T

TumblingHippo

Member
Oh wow I'm already so bored listening to to these opening statements of the first 2000 debate.

"I will balance the budget every yearrrr...zzzzzzzzzzzzzz"
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
So last time Trump tried to debate "serious" he came across as pretty boring and his best asset, his charisma, was completely gone. He was also on stage with two idiots who similarly had no plans at all (POSTAGE STAMP DEATH TO IRS) and so him just spewing nothing while acting "calm" didn't really change anything or help or hurt him in any way.

But tonight, when he's up there, without his charisma, spewing nonsense, someone else is going to be next to him. That someone is going to disagree with him. That person likes Obama. That person has piles of policy for anything and everything and has the entire thing memorized. That policy is pragmatic and easy to digest as workable.

It's an entirely different ball game. Just pretending to be dry and "serious" doesn't work when the other person is always serious and has serious policy. It's wasting Trump's only real positive, that he's better at working a crowd and better at saying absolutely nothing while seeming like he said something. And then you're just left with the most qualified person for the presidency in a generation, and a husk of a generic Republican.

And if he doesn't act "calm" and "serious" we're in for a real treat.
Click to expand...

This is generally how I see it, too. Despite this being her millionth debate, in many ways it is a debut, because it's her first against a republican since Lazio. And I'm confident that she'll be at her best taking it to a republican.The sexism issue works a bit in her favor, IMO, as she can get away with laying into him without looking like a bully more than he can with her. So I agree that the bar for seeming calm and in command while attacking Trump's incoherent and unpopular ideas is actually fairly low, because, oddly, it's not a side we've seen a ton of. And, like ballad said, Trump's ideas have largely gone unchallenged so far, he won't have the crowd on his side, etc.
 
I

Ignatz Mouse

Banned
I generally ignore twitter, so that's part of why I wasnt as down on him.

Sidebar: the weird thing for me about Good Nate and Bad Nate is that I have a pair of friends who I've referred to as Good Nate and Evil Nate for years.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
Flipping whites with degrees seems like a bigger deal than it gets attention for.

She has a well funded GOTV machine.

And dumbocrats will come home a bit too.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
I'm just interested in the follow up questions that will be asked of Trump and if he has any reasonable response to them.

I also wonder what his tone will be. He doesn't have a crowd to play off of. He can be loud and authoritative, but that won't play well with no one clapping and cheering.

If he comes off as subdued then his best asset, his charisma is gone. Then the question comes up, did he appear weak? Did he even want to be there etc.

Again his biggest failing imo will be the follow up questions that ask him to into detail on policy. I'm sure he has a few talking points for that but still.
 
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