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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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O

Omiee

Member
Absolutely loved the bill maher episode. How can you vote trump after you watch his show. I was getting frustrated by the economic advisor for trump. He was interrupting the wholeeeee time.
 
A

anaron

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
I feel really bad for this woman. She needs help, she isn't well.
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was ready to dismiss her as complete trash until it reveals why's she so...nuts. she lost her sister to lack of cancer treatment insurance and subsequent medical and financial disparity and damn, I just feel so sad for her and how she chooses to blame the world for it.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
I mean if they wanted more eyes on this non story with Clinton audio they would have waited to release it on Monday.

Right now on twitter the hastag is losing steam. College football has been on all day. Tomorrow is pro football. I mean they'll still try to make it a thing on Monday but then you'll have Clinton is Ohio and is the VP debate on monday?

Not to mention Barack gets set to stump for Clinton in October.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
NeoXChaos said:
Orange menace is going to take them all with him. I don't buy that Rubio is going to be unscathed by Trump toward the end no matter what current polling says. Same for Ayotte, Burr, Toomey etc.

Portman is the exception because Strickland sucks.
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I don't either. A lot of the current projections for likely polling don't make a lot of sense- especially not when you consider what Debate #1 did for the perception of Clinton among democrats and liberals. Two more like that and turnout will not be close at all between R and D.

edit: the REASON why I don't goes back to this, mostly- fivethirtyeight had a chat on polling the other day, and this was the first thing to come up:

Hypothesis #1: The polls are underestimating Clinton because they don’t factor in her superior ground game.

Most reports (and we’ll have an article with some extensive data on this soon) suggest that Clinton is far better organized than Trump, with more field offices, for example, and a better get-out-the-vote (GOTV) operation. Isn’t that reason to think the polls are underestimating Clinton by a bit?

natesilver: That’s one of the better arguments, yeah.

harry (Harry Enten, senior political writer): Well, the question you have to ask yourself is whether or not the field game is being picked up by the polls. In a wonderful, perfect universe, it would be. In reality, I have my doubts. That’s why I’m not entirely sold on polls showing a large gap (in Trump’s favor) between registered voter results and likely voter results.

natesilver: The empirical literature on the ground game is messy because there are so many conflating variables. But what would worry me if I were Trump is that the race isn’t that close if everyone turns out — and I have the worse turnout operation.

micah: How would the polls pick up on a better ground game?

harry: A ground game is supposed to get people to vote. So, if Clinton’s campaign is getting more people engaged, then polls that are aimed at identifying likely voters should pick up on that. More of those voters should make it through the likely voter screen.

natesilver: Well, maybe they’ll make it through the likely voter screen, but a lot of likely voter screens rely on past voting history, and may or may not have adequate provisions in place to capture new voters.

harry: Right.

natesilver: Also, a lot of likely voter screens do something that’s probably dumb, which is to set a hard cut-off for voting propensity instead of doing it probabilistically. Clinton has a “long tail” of semi-likely voters that she could potentially draw from.

harry: Also correct.

micah: Clare, have you seen evidence of a superior Clinton ground game on your travels?

clare.malone: Clinton and the Democrats certainly have a more traditional, organized field operation. This is not to say that Trump doesn’t have some of the basics — the campaign has, for instance, phone-banking apps that their volunteers can use from home, along with walking apps for door-to-door stuff. But Trump is still substantively relying on the Republican National Committee’s operation, and they’ve been suffering from a lack of enthusiasm in some of the management-level types who usually run campaigns.

I would say Trump is still mostly counting on his earned media strategy.

We also know that the Trump team is trying to turn out people who DON’T usually vote, and who probably don’t answer polls.

micah: So Clare, couldn’t Trump’s reliance on the RNC for GOTV hurt him? Down-ballot Republicans might want to turn out slightly different voters than Trump would want.

harry: We saw very little proof during the primaries that Trump turned out untraditional voters.

clare.malone: Right. I think the RNC is a little nervous that Trump people might not vote Republican all the way down ticket, so in some of their door-to-door activities, they might be targeting the more traditional Republicans who are turned off by the presidential race. I.e., looking to target some college-educated whites for Senate races in key states.

natesilver: Yeah, Trump’s performance was pretty meh against the polls in the primaries. And he didn’t do a good job of winning over late-deciding voters, although that’s a slightly different issue than not having a good turnout operation.

harry: Well, we have more evidence than just the polls. We have Catalist data on who turned out to vote: Most Trump primary voters also turned out in the 2012 general election. The only candidate who had a large share of untraditional voters was Bernie Sanders.

micah: OK, so… Clinton could add 20 percentage points to her margin over Trump thanks to a superior GOTV operation?

clare.malone: 20 points seems like quite a lot.

harry: We’re looking at, at most, a few percentage points. It could add maybe a point or two to Clinton’s margin.

micah: NEXT!
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-could-the-polls-be-missing/

Current polling does not take into account that clinton has an extremely robust ground game turning out unlikely voters, and many likely voter screens are binary- either you are 100% likely to vote or you just don't count in the projection, which is insane. Trumps ground based turnout machine is pretty much nonexistent, even when compared to Romney's in 2012. A lot of these "close" matches absolutely won't be, especially in Florida, NV, NH, ME, and PA which are battlegrounds with a lot of resources.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
anaron said:
was ready to dismiss her as complete trash until it reveals why's she so...nuts. she lost her sister to lack of cancer treatment insurance and subsequent medical and financial disparity and damn, I just feel so sad for her and how she chooses to blame.
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It seems like she's at least somewhat together-- like she's not picking her teeth with straw or something.

“It’s like he wants to classify us — alpha, beta, gamma, delta,” she said, referring to the dystopian future described in the novel “Brave New World.”
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I mean...
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
BSsBrolly said:
Fox is pushing the Sanders basement story hard (on Twitter at least). Not surprising, they pushed the "you didn't build that" story too.
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Their article on it is terrible. It ignores a huge portion of what she says, totally misses what she was saying, and laser focuses on the basement part, even if Hillary literally meant people actually living in their parent's basement and the went on to discuss how she totally understands them and their problems.

Also the article is using polls from right after she got sick to pretend she's in dire need of the young voters and this is probably the end for her. It also shows a sad picture of Bernie, even if his people said this is not insulting to his supporters at all.
 
S

Slayven

Member
Boke1879 said:
I mean if they wanted more eyes on this non story with Clinton audio they would have waited to release it on Monday.

Right now on twitter the hastag is losing steam. College football has been on all day. Tomorrow is pro football. I mean they'll still try to make it a thing on Monday but then you'll have Clinton is Ohio and is the VP debate on monday?

Not to mention Barack gets set to stump for Clinton in October.
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VP debate is Tuesday
 
O

Oriel

Member
Y2Kev said:
It's a Saturday night. They're filling airtime. Here is the website. It's not even on here.



literally no one cares about this.
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CNN just trying to look objective but ending up looking like jackasses as usual. A pox on their balance fallacy.

Y2Kev said:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nati...b6f334-7f68-11e6-9070-5c4905bf40dc_story.html

hmm
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Right, so......here is a woman who traces all the crap in her life back to a time when she was sexually harassed and objectified by her all-male colleagues in a blue-collar environment....... and then goes on to fully support a candidate who sexually harasses women? Not to mention being part of a wider movement that sees females as trash and who are essentially the property of males. Bizarre.

I do feel sorry for her though and I wonder what sort of frame of mind would she be in today had she gotten the compensation and justice she so clearly deserved back in 2002.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Oriel said:
CNN just trying to look objective but ending up looking like jackasses as usual. A pox on their balance fallacy.



Right, so......here is a woman who traces all the crap in her life back to a time when she was sexually harassed and objectified by her all-male colleagues in a blue-collar environment....... and then goes on to fully support a candidate who sexually harasses women? Not to mention being part of a wider movement that sees females as trash and who are essentially the property of males. Bizarre.
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I hate to say it, but metal illness is a hell of a thing. That lady has a problem and she needs help, desperately. You could tell when she spoke to her neighbor he wanted to say she had a problem that needed fixing.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Yeah, but it's almost sad. It's certainly not Obama's fault that the midwest is being devastated by, like, reality, and it is certainly not his fault that this woman is clearly in need of medical attention. But I am upset that demagogues like Donald Trump are able to take advantage of people who very seriously need help because he says racist shit. The only thing uniting poor white people it would seem is their distaste of everyone else. That's NOT Obama's fault. But I can't help but be a little sympathetic for this woman.
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IDK,

There are thousands of these stories and these people aren't turning to trump. Minorities lives have been wrecked liked this for centuries, they don't turn to fascism and racism.

There's no excuse for turning to these types of ideologies. Yes, outside factors increase stress and anxiety but that doesn't mean you go to racism. That's taught and a choice (on the level she has it, I tend to forgive institutional racism and microagressions from being seen as a personal or moral failing as those things are hard to change)

This and people who have reacted these ways? I can't muster up the sympathy beyond hoping that we can make their lives better through better policy.

I don't wish these people ill, but I have no illusions about them
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Mighty Chin said:
This person needs serious help.
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This woman is going to be swinging from a rafter somewhere after Trump loses. Jesus.

This article for me...i dunno man, it crosses a line. I have fun with Trump supporters as much as the next guy, but this woman is clearly, demonstrably mentally ill, and this article seems to do nothing but mock that mental illness and tie it to Trump support.

I'm not OK with this.
 
S

sphagnum

Banned
anaron said:
was ready to dismiss her as complete trash until it reveals why's she so...nuts. she lost her sister to lack of cancer treatment insurance and subsequent medical and financial disparity and damn, I just feel so sad for her and how she chooses to blame the world for it.
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It's almost like it's OK to empathize with downtrodden working class white people who get the short end of the stick of capitalism, even if they're crazy and terrible people!
 
C

Cyanity

Banned
So what do we think Hillary's actual chances of winning this election are? I'm thinking at least 80% when you consider her ground game and Trump's inability to see his flaws as a candidate.
 
T

TumblingHippo

Member
Cyanity said:
So what do we think Hillary's actual chances of winning this election are? I'm thinking at least 80% when you consider her ground game and Trump's inability to see his flaws as a candidate.
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Trump may have just been melting down by sending out sexist and fat-shaming rants... but Hillary just said something nuanced so... HORSE RACE
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Cyanity said:
So what do we think Hillary's actual chances of winning this election are? I'm thinking at least 80% when you consider her ground game and Trump's inability to see his flaws as a candidate.
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I have pegged the odds at 70/30, personally.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
anaron said:
was ready to dismiss her as complete trash until it reveals why's she so...nuts. she lost her sister to lack of cancer treatment insurance and subsequent medical and financial disparity and damn, I just feel so sad for her and how she chooses to blame the world for it.
Click to expand...

I'm really surprised that a woman so horribly sexually harassed could support Donald Trump.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Manmademan said:
This woman is going to be swinging from a rafter somewhere after Trump loses. Jesus.

This article for me...i dunno man, it crosses a line. I have fun with Trump supporters as much as the next guy, but this woman is clearly, demonstrably mentally ill, and this article seems to do nothing but mock that mental illness and tie it to Trump support.

I'm not OK with this.
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She's not. She didn't want to accept the reality in which she was living in, so she created her own. Made out of facebook chainmail and hysterical loonyweb conspiracy theories.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
kevin1025 said:
Donald Trump is 98 minutes late (so far) to his rally tonight. He's a mess.
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Trump 90+ minutes late due to weather. Crowd is booing the music - which is on loop - chanting "turn it off."
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https://twitter.com/alivitali/status/782379311227555841

Imagine wanting to go to a Fourth Reich rally and instead you had to listen to "You Can't Always Get What You Want" on repeat for two hours while you waited and slowly went insane.

Novels could be written about this.
 
8

8 X 11 Printer Paper

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
https://twitter.com/alivitali/status/782379311227555841

Imagine wanting to go to a Fourth Reich rally and instead you had to listen to "You Can't Always Get What You Want" on repeat for two hours while you waited and slowly went insane.

Novels could be written about this.
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Reminds me when I got trapped on the Pirates of the Caribbean ride in Disney Land. Stuck in there for 2.5 hours, they didn't turn off the singing until 1.5 hours in...at least I wasn't surrounded by crazy racists to the best of my knowledge.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Manmademan said:
This woman is going to be swinging from a rafter somewhere after Trump loses. Jesus.

This article for me...i dunno man, it crosses a line. I have fun with Trump supporters as much as the next guy, but this woman is clearly, demonstrably mentally ill, and this article seems to do nothing but mock that mental illness and tie it to Trump support.

I'm not OK with this.
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I did not feel that the article mocked her.

it's a sad commentary on the state of mental health help in this country when the woman was committed temporarily, and just given injections and anti-anxiety drugs, rather than the therapy and followup she clearly needs
 
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