PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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nature boy said:
If elected, she'll be the first president in a while that's inaugurated with no majority in both houses.
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That isn't true. Republicans keeping the Senate this year is very unlikely.

Plus the shit Dem turnout in midterms, it's not hard to imagine a 1 term President.
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2020 isn't a midterm? I'm not sure what your point is here. Obama had quite possibly the worst midterm of all time with 2010- didn't really seem to hurt him for 2012.
 
Manmademan said:
That isn't true. Republicans keeping the Senate this year is very unlikely.
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??? It's around 50-50 in PEC, Preditwise and Upshot.


2020 isn't a midterm? I'm not sure what your point is here. Obama had quite possibly the worst midterm of all time with 2010- didn't really seem to hurt him for 2012.
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President without a majority in either house (scenario), what makes you think that in 2018 (with a brutal Senate map) the Dems will gain a Senate majority?
 
Cyanity said:
I still don't understand why some people think that dems are "screwed" in 2020. The repubs are going to be in an identity crisis fueled disarray for years thanks to this Trump BS and America will have seen through their shit by then. Unless the repubs adopt socially sound policy, they're never going to win the White House again. This country is done with dogwhistle politics.
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Theres an assortment of plausible "if"s that could align to make 2020 tough for the Democrats. If Hillary isn't able to get much done due to the Congress, especially after the GOP takes more control in the 2018 midterms; if Obamacare continues to falter without being modified; if the GOP institutes superdelegates and prevents another Trump from happening; if there is an economic downturn, and so forth.
 
I'd be fine with some taxes going to help dumb millennials with their college so they can get out of their parents' basements, but not if they're using it for the "college experience" to "find themselves" by getting stoned and playing Xbox.
 
Clinton refers to Millennials are "basement-dwellers" and for some reason this is considered a major news story by CNN? But Trump saying he dodges taxes is apparently of no concern to the news media. Nice to see where the media's priorities lie.
 
Ugh, Trump trying to make the Bernie supporter comments into a thing and CNN helping him.

Frankly, Hillary should just take the full quote in its context and make a web video out of it. The full statement is actually really sympathetic.
 
cartoon_soldier said:
This is definitely a realignment election if Dems win NC and Florida with a comfortable margin but loose Iowa and Ohio.

That is if national margin is let's say 5 points and Hillary wins FL/NC by 3-4 and losses Iowa and Ohio by same.
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I don't think so. I mean, was there a realignment in 2008 when Obama won OH/IA? It's just the candidate. Trump uniquely appeals to non-colege rustbelt whites. I would be shocked if the GOP picks a protectionist again.
 
Cyanity said:
I still don't understand why some people think that dems are "screwed" in 2020. The repubs are going to be in an identity crisis fueled disarray for years thanks to this Trump BS and America will have seen through their shit by then. Unless the repubs adopt socially sound policy, they're never going to win the White House again. This country is done with dogwhistle politics.
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Republicans will eventually get the White House back, but yes, I do agree with the overall point here. Mitt Romney is arguably the best candidate they've put forth in years, and he lost by over 100 EVs. States with larger populations are trending blue while rural states trend red. If the GOP ever loses control of Texas (and you can definitely argue that Trump as a nominee is going down as a huge black mark for Hispanic voters), then they're cooked. They'll have to re-align.

The thing is, they don't have the control they need to do this effectively. People like Rush, Beck, and Hannity are still playing kingmaker, and they'll basically stall out any reformers before they ever hit the big stage. The only thing the party itself can do is to run off the scam artists; people on stage to blatantly sell products or angle for cushy jobs. You'll never convince me that Fiorina, Carson, Huckabee, Jindal, etc... were up there to try to win. They knew they were toast, and they still sucked up time and said deplorable shit that still gets associated with the party even if they lost.

Cyanity said:
New OTs start around 20k posts, right?
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Why is that? I thought it was a hard limit on the site, but then I saw a community thread hit 20K+ before moving to a new one.
 
I saw the weirdest pickup truck at lunch today, it had a bumper sticker on the back that said "Beware of liberals disguised as Americans" but then above it on the back window it had "Hillary" painted on it in big blue letters. I spent a while thinking about it, like maybe the truck's owner or someone in their family is named Hillary, or maybe someone did it as a prank.
 
Of course Trump is going to use the basement comments in his rally, it's his next deplorables. It would be nice if news networks put more context around it.
 
Oriel said:
Clinton refers to Millennials are "basement-dwellers" and for some reason this is considered a major news story by CNN? But Trump saying he dodges taxes is apparently of no concern to the news media. Nice to see where the media's priorities lie.
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royalan said:
Ugh, Trump trying to make the Bernie supporter comments into a thing and CNN helping him.

Frankly, Hillary should just take the full quote in its context and make a web video out of it. The full statement is actually really sympathetic.
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It's a Saturday night. They're filling airtime. Here is the website. It's not even on here.

moq1N3N.jpg
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literally no one cares about this.
 
CNN confirmed to be the worst network yet again. At least with Fox we know what we're going to get. CNN purposely tries to muddy the waters for ratings and it's legitimately damaging to this country.
 
LOL, I knew the basement comment would be a thing.

It may not be a "deplorables"-level thing, but a thing nonetheless. And since Trump is desperate, and the media still follows him like a puppy dog, it will get a bit of airtime.
 
I'm not sure 2020 will be good for Democrats, but I'm not sure it will be bad either. The demographics are really shifting. I think 2020 is going to be for sure the last election they even have a chance without realignment.
 
AntraxSuicide said:
Why is that? I thought it was a hard limit on the site, but then I saw a community thread hit 20K+ before moving to a new one.
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Something to do with server load, the rule was a result of a world cup thread that was like 40k posts long. Apparently it fucked with the server and stability.
 
shinra-bansho said:
I'd be fine with some taxes going to help dumb millennials with their college so they can get out of their parents' basements, but not if they're using it for the "college experience" to "find themselves" by getting stoned and playing Xbox.
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Same. I completely agree that college should be debt-free, and that trade schools should be pushed more, but you're an adult when you go to college. You're going to take on responsibility for your actions and your image to other people.

Fucking around for years with a super expensive degree in "hospitality" (a real program at my university) is not something that tax dollars should be subsidizing. There are a ton of other uses for both actual money and political capital that we should be doing.

Veelk said:
How do they dig deeper than Trump though? Charles Manson?
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Ted Nugent/Hulk Hogan, 2020!
 
NeoXChaos said:
what makes you think they won't control the Senate?
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Not saying they won't, but there's a realistic possibility that may not regain the majority.

We'll see. If Orange Menace fades, expect resources to shift to the Senate.

Some R senators are already saying "vote for me to keep President Clinton under control".
 
nature boy said:
Not saying they won't, but there's a realistic possibility that may not regain the majority.

We'll see. If Orange Menace fades, expect resources to shift to the Senate.

Some R senators are already saying "vote for me to keep President Clinton under control".
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Orange menace is going to take them all with him. I don't buy that Rubio is going to be unscathed by Trump toward the end no matter what current polling says. Same for Ayotte, Burr, Toomey etc.

Portman is the exception because Strickland sucks.
 
Slayven said:
It almost reads like an onion article
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Yeah, but it's almost sad. It's certainly not Obama's fault that the midwest is being devastated by, like, reality, and it is certainly not his fault that this woman is clearly in need of medical attention. But I am upset that demagogues like Donald Trump are able to take advantage of people who very seriously need help because he says racist shit. The only thing uniting poor white people it would seem is their distaste of everyone else. That's NOT Obama's fault. But I can't help but be a little sympathetic for this woman.
 
NeoXChaos said:
Orange menace is going to take them all with him. I don't buy that Rubio is going to be unscathed by Trump toward the end no matter what current polling says. Same for Ayotte, Burr, Toomey etc.

Portman is the exception because Strickland sucks.
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That's not what the polling suggests, but we'll see.
 
Manmademan said:
That isn't true. Republicans keeping the Senate this year is very unlikely.



2020 isn't a midterm? I'm not sure what your point is here. Obama had quite possibly the worst midterm of all time with 2010- didn't really seem to hurt him for 2012.
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Projections slightly favor GOP for senate right now
 
Fox is pushing the Sanders basement story hard (on Twitter at least). Not surprising, they pushed the "you didn't build that" story too.
 
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