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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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R

RustyNails

Member
Valhelm said:
Why does every LA times poll show Trump so high?
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Its actually trending downward for past few dags? At current rate, Hillary is going to climb up very soon

6Ma4OzQ.png
 
C

cooljeanius

Member
KyroLen said:
So I sat out the 2012 election, just wasn't overly enthused. My first election was in 2008, was super enthused and voted Obama, had a girlfriend at the time who was big on Mccain. After watching the election results that night, we broke up promptly the next day as she didn't appreciate me gloating.

Anyway, this election has rekindled that enthusiasm in me, not so much because Hillary has done anything to warrant that but moreso that Trump's ignorance and bigotry and hateful speech makes me want to do everything in my power to stop him from being elected.

So I went to our local Democrat offices yesterday, signed up to knock on doors and donate and make phone calls and do whatever the hell I can to make sure a Trump presidency does not come to be reality. I'm going to be doing my part, and it feels good to be part of this, and will feel amazing to know I played a very very very small part but a part nonetheless in stopping a piece of garbage bigot from being elected.

Oh, and they offered me local state reps signs to put on my lawn free. That's fine. But when I wanted a Hillary/Kain sign they charged me $7... found that kind of odd.
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The Clinton/Kaine sign I got for my parents was free; idk why you were charged, either...
 
T

Teggy

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Advocating murder should get you banned tbh.

Twitter unbanned someone just because they didn't ban other people too because Twitter didn't notice them... I mean, I don't think most punishment systems work that way?
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It's not like they couldn't easily find the other people. They've got to have a policy or no policy or this will happen every time.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
I don't really like that Nate "adjusts" polls. I think he should just weigh polls based on their bias, not actually change the numbers. So if a poll has +6 Republican bias, it should be given no weight at all, or barely any, while a +1 Republican bias should be given as much weight as a +1 Democrat bias.

Rather than actually just outright changing the numbers.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
dramatis said:
It think it's probably more likely due to individual candidate issues. Trump is a cheapskate, Rubio is lazy.

It's hard to say how Jeb, Cruz, or Kasich might have fared in terms of ground game. Jeb seemed like a guy who thought money would solve his problems (very Romney-esque) and thought he could pull in Hispanics because he could speak Spanish. Cruz was very sly about his strategy and tactics back during the primaries, so maybe he could have had strong ground game. I think it certainly doesn't help how a strong data operation was built by Obama's campaign in 2012 and Hillary's campaign refined it for operation for 2016, while Trump eschewed a data operation because he's still stuck in the 80s and thinking he can coast to victory off of media presence alone.
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I agree overall. Cruz is very smart and ran an amazing campaign this year, ground wise. He basically ran the campaign the religious right has dreamed of for decades in terms of church organizational outreach...yet the Trump tsunami was too much to overcome. Take Trump out the race and Cruz wins the nomination handily too.

Trump's disdain for data/ground game seems like an extension of his hatred of Obama. He views Obama as a "not smart" light weight who is overrated by the media, so naturally he thinks Obama's views on organizing are trash too. He was to prove he's smarter than Obama, basically.

I agree on Jeb. It's funny, good governors know their state inside out. Jeb benefited from great organizing during his terms...yet I agree with you, I think he'd just throw money at a national election instead of realizing what works in Florida works in other states.
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
I agree overall. Cruz is very smart and ran an amazing campaign this year, ground wise. He basically ran the campaign the religious right has dreamed of for decades in terms of church organizational outreach...yet the Trump tsunami was too much to overcome. Take Trump out the race and Cruz wins the nomination handily too.

Trump's disdain for data/ground game seems like an extension of his hatred of Obama. He views Obama as a "not smart" light weight who is overrated by the media, so naturally he thinks Obama's views on organizing are trash too. He was to prove he's smarter than Obama, basically.
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The media is not going to focus on the ground game until like late October and the RNC is going to lie it way into saying they and Trump do.
 
F

Fragamemnon

Member
balladofwindfishes said:
I don't really like that Nate "adjusts" polls. I think he should just weigh polls based on their bias, not actually change the numbers. So if a poll has +6 Republican bias, it should be given no weight at all, or barely any, while a +1 Republican bias should be given as much weight as a +1 Democrat bias.

Rather than actually just outright changing the numbers.
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the problem with this is that then you reduce your overall inputs and make your model more reliant on smaller amounts of data. This has a bigger risk of being very precise with your predictions, but having them be very wrong.

It's better to take bigger amounts of data and attempt to janitor them uniformly rather than heavily marginalize/throw out data entirely.

The real issue with 538s methodology, and most actual election prediction engines, is that they simply don't have nearly enough data. These models would be tons better with 10x the polling and with enough detail on each poll to uniformly quantify how strongly the poll can be believed regardless of source.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Area angry frat bro outlet posts amazingly sexist post on hillary.

http://freebeacon.com/blog/shrill-angry-poorly-dressed-woman-wonders-shes-losing/

This is why her best strategy is definitely to get super-shrill, extra-angry, and even-more-awfully-dressed. That will definitely turn things around for her. She should be paying her campaign consultants extra for this great advice.
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The free bacon is the worst. Literally just an outlet designed for angry white dudes to yell about how liberals suck and are pussies
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
Cyanity said:
Forgive my ignorance here; this has been the first presidential race I've followed closely - What are LV screens?
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They call registered voters but not all registered voters vote so they try to pick out the Likely Voters or the voters they assume will vote and actually will decide the election.

Dems usually lose points when a LV screen is applied since their voters are less likely to vote.

Its full of assumptions and this year is really wonky
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
I support Twitter suspending all people calling for murder.

Anyway, hopefully he loses his job at Tennessee. He'll become a martyr, but that's better than him peddling his garbage to students.

Cyanity said:
Forgive my ignorance here; this has been the first presidential race I've followed closely - What are LV screens?
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Pollsters trying to predict which voters are likely to actually vote in the election.
 
B

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Cyanity said:
Forgive my ignorance here; this has been the first presidential race I've followed closely - What are LV screens?
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It refers to likely voter, as opposed to an RV screen which refers to registered voters. As we move closer to the election the LV screen will supposedly become more accurate as more people decide if they're going to vote and who for. This year is wonky though, so who knows.
 
I

Iolo

Member
Cyanity said:
Forgive my ignorance here; this has been the first presidential race I've followed closely - What are LV screens?
Click to expand...

If you read the last two Upshot poll posts (NC and FL) they explain it somewhat. And show how different screens affect the topline number.
 
N

NYCmetsfan

Banned
What is the faux stupidity called when posters attempt to mock conservatives with

stuff like this
Alcotholic said:
Geez, bringing racism to our country. What kind of president would do tha- oh wait...
Click to expand...

because it fills threads now and makes them unreadable. I really hate internet discourse recently.
 
D

Diablos

Member
dramatis said:
It think it's probably more likely due to individual candidate issues. Trump is a cheapskate, Rubio is lazy.

It's hard to say how Jeb, Cruz, or Kasich might have fared in terms of ground game. Jeb seemed like a guy who thought money would solve his problems (very Romney-esque) and thought he could pull in Hispanics because he could speak Spanish. Cruz was very sly about his strategy and tactics back during the primaries, so maybe he could have had strong ground game. I think it certainly doesn't help how a strong data operation was built by Obama's campaign in 2012 and Hillary's campaign refined it for operation for 2016, while Trump eschewed a data operation because he's still stuck in the 80s and thinking he can coast to victory off of media presence alone.
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Good points all around, but in fairness, despite how much I hate him, Trump has done a damn good job considering he basically has no ground game and managed to get the media to foam at the mouth over every little thing he says or does. If he wins the election it's going to transform how we elect politicians at that level. The rules will change.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Iolo said:
This is why I don't understand the point of 538's polls-plus. It has all these corrections built in, such as for convention bounce and number of endorsements (!), but nothing for ... ground game disparity?

Maybe because we don't have a good scientific understanding of how ground game affects things (we should after this election!), but I think the other values he is using are essentially an art as well.
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That's not completely true.

Most of the other values that are being used by Upshot / 538 (hell all non Wang models) are calculated using regression analysis based on previous years worth of data in terms of house effects, connecting national and state trends, etc. The problem is that a) quantifying the effect of a ground game even internally is a pain in the ass and a well-educated SWAG at best, and b) we sure as hell don't share that data publicly. :p That's why no models tend to account for it, because any ground game effect that would be visible in public LV screen data or polling data in general is completely swamped by the "oh crap, the election is four days away, I'm more interested in it now than I was 3 weeks ago" effect.

You can try to guesstimate it by looking at a given party's RV/LV changes over time in a given state, but it is not anything remotely reliable, and you're stuck in one of those situations where even one standard deviation is a multiple of the average, so it makes the data almost useless for regression. (also, you would have to monitor every state / every poll and hope methodology doesn't change at all for each one over time, and hope the given poll starts doing weekly runs near the end, and also hope that the same poll is running in many states weekly to even start trying to figure it out)

Cesare Borgia said:
I agree overall. Cruz is very smart and ran an amazing campaign this year, ground wise. He basically ran the campaign the religious right has dreamed of for decades in terms of church organizational outreach...yet the Trump tsunami was too much to overcome. Take Trump out the race and Cruz wins the nomination handily too.

Trump's disdain for data/ground game seems like an extension of his hatred of Obama. He views Obama as a "not smart" light weight who is overrated by the media, so naturally he thinks Obama's views on organizing are trash too. He was to prove he's smarter than Obama, basically.

I agree on Jeb. It's funny, good governors know their state inside out. Jeb benefited from great organizing during his terms...yet I agree with you, I think he'd just throw money at a national election instead of realizing what works in Florida works in other states.
Click to expand...

Knowing some of the folks Cruz reportedly got out of industry to help with his data game, he could have had one of the best data operations in history if he had national GOP funding. Definitely glad we didn't have to deal with him. I'd be worried about the RNC / GOP gaining that kind of capability to be used in Senate / House races.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Is there a recent or semi-recent voter file publicly available anywhere? I wanna see how I can play around with it using data analytics tools.
 
S

Sibylus

Banned
NYCmetsfan said:
What is the faux stupidity called when posters attempt to mock conservatives with

stuff like this


because it fills threads now and makes them unreadable. I really hate internet discourse recently.
Click to expand...

In the vernacular of the youth, I believe they term this a "shitpost".
 
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