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[HylianTom]

Oh man, I love the smell of hairspray. It's like my jam. I could get high off of it. Actually, that's literally true.

The smell of hairspray gives me 80s flashbacks. "The higher the hair, the closer to God" was the rule for many women in my life back then.

..

And I'm starting to see a fair number of Hillary signs and bumperstickers in my neighborhood. This was heavy Bernie territory a few months ago.

 

[Iolo]

Seeing people talk about campaign offices in the twitter replies to the new NC poll reminds me, is the data about Trump spending very little money & having very few campaign offices in Florida still accurate? When was the last update to those numbers?

I read that the FL manager got fired a couple weeks ago for not opening any offices, and the new manager supposedly opened 20 in the last 2 weeks. Same article said they had been promised $1.9m from Trump but hadn't gotten it yet. It's not really clear to me what opening a bunch of offices with so little time left will accomplish, but some activity is occurring.

 

[thebloo]

Do offices mean anything without money?

 

[User 463088]

The smell of hairspray gives me 80s flashbacks. "The higher the hair, the closer to God" was the rule for many women in my life back then.

I actually think hairspray explains 80s fashions. Everyone had a contact high from the number of women walking around in a cloud of hairspray vapor that you just wore whatever the fuck you wanted. And, also, shoulder pads were needed to support the muscles in the neck to hold up all that hair.

Oh, and perms. The smell of permanent is my 80s/90s flashback.

 

[User 463088]

I read that the FL manager got fired a couple weeks ago for not opening any offices, and the new manager supposedly opened 20 in the last 2 weeks. Same article said they had been promised $1.9m from Trump but hadn't gotten it yet. It's not really clear to me what opening a bunch of offices with so little time left will accomplish, but some activity is occurring.

The thing is,even if he has opened 20 offices, they're pretty much useless at this point. The offices are just a front for the ground infrastructure and big data you've got going on. And, like, the office in Toledo for Trump is literally empty, and covered in signs to pretend it isn't. And, even if these were fully functional offices, we're like, what, 50 days away? Totally useless at this point. So, ya, I say Trump should open 90 offices. Just because it's cute. And I want him to waste other people's money.

 

[Valhelm]

Why does every LA times poll show Trump so high?

 

[Iolo]

Do offices mean anything without money?

Or staff for that matter. Or a strategy

 

[Teggy]

I read that the FL manager got fired a couple weeks ago for not opening any offices, and the new manager supposedly opened 20 in the last 2 weeks. Same article said they had been promised $1.9m from Trump but hadn't gotten it yet. It's not really clear to me what opening a bunch of offices with so little time left will accomplish, but some activity is occurring.

Do offices mean anything without money?

Supposedly the Republican party has 2000 people in Florida, so they must be doing something there.

 

[Sianos]

Seeing people talk about campaign offices in the twitter replies to the new NC poll reminds me, is the data about Trump spending very little money & having very few campaign offices in Florida still accurate? When was the last update to those numbers?

I can bring some anecdotal information that while he has opened a new office in south Florida, the campaign is still inefficiently scrambling to jury-rig together a functioning ground game. Additionally, it sounds like their internal polling is less than encouraging.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Oh, and perms. The smell of permanent is my 80s/90s flashback.

My grandmother and aunt were hairdressers. I feel you bro.

 

[Plinko]

Hasn't Rasmussen actually had Hillary with a lead recently, or was that state polls?

 

[balladofwindfishes]

I have certain nostalgia for some aspects of the 80s. Mostly movies, cartoons and music. None for hairspray.

I was born in 1990. So that's why it's pretty much just stuff my parents were still watching/listening to, and nothing from actually experiencing it.

Most of my actual, feeling nostalgia from being there comes from the late 90s and early 2000s. I actually remember very little of the 90s, despite being a "90s kid."

 

[Valhelm]

Supposedly the Republican party has 2000 people in Florida, so they must be doing something there.

Where'd you hear that? Are all 2,000 really working on the presidential campaign?

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Why does every LA times poll show Trump so high?

It's a tracking panel where they ask the same people every day over the course of the election. It's interesting in the sense of seeing what people who know they are on a panel tracking voter sentiment feel like answering that day. For whatever that's worth.

 

[GutsOfThor]

I actually haven't seen any yard signs for the presidential election where I am (Alabama), if anyone has a sign out in their yard it's for one of the local elections.

I have seen a few bumper stickers though, like 1 or 2 for Hillary vs. around 5 or so for Trump.

I have seen two Clinton yard signs, a few Clinton bumper stickers, two Trump bumper stickers and about 10 Bernie bumper stickers.

I see a lot of yard signs for local elections more than anything.

 

[BenjaminBirdie]

"I'm not down with TPP"

omfg

"Fine. Let the country go to shit."

 

[nature boy]

Why does every LA times poll show Trump so high?

Trump supporters more excited and more likely to vote.

 

[Teggy]

Hasn't Rasmussen actually had Hillary with a lead recently, or was that state polls?

It's bounced around a bit. Most recently it had Trump up a little less, then older Cliinton up, then Trump up again, and farther back Clinton up.

 

[Aaron Strife]

Oh hey, good polls this morning!

 

[whyamihere]

Wow. That NYT/Siena poll is good news, even tied. Up 2 in the H2H, up 2 if your LV screen is based on voter history.

AND ROSS AND COOPER. HOLY SHIT. ROSS IS GONNA DO IT.

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Were there old school Trump stickers made back in 2008?

I saw a beat up, dirty, scraped up Trump sticker today. It didn't say "Make America Great Again" and was an entirely different font.

 

[Slayven]

.

that seems like a bad thing

 

[Valhelm]

Hasn't Rasmussen actually had Hillary with a lead recently, or was that state polls?

It's bounced around a bit. Most recently it had Trump up a little less, then older Cliinton up, then Trump up again, and farther back Clinton up.

Rasmussen has Trump up 5 in the 4-way this morning

 

[balladofwindfishes]

Rasmussen has Trump up 5 in the 4-way this morning

So either Hillary is up 7, or Trump is up 5. Depending on what poll you use.

The LV screens this year are wacky.

 

[Emarv]

It's been so weird lately for the major news networks to not have 24/7 political coverage. The NYC bomb and the Charlotte riots/shootings dominate the coverage all day.

We'll probably be swamped with political stuff next week, though.

 

[HylianTom]

A few tweets from the Decision Desk guy regarding North Carolina:

The single most undervalued issue for elex models using polls to calculate EV/Senate math in 2016: the importance of ground game in NC.

If/when NC close? An intensive ground game wins it for GOP absent Dem wave (see: 2012 and esp. 2014 NC-SEN). What's Trump up to this year?

Lots of GOPers still don't accept this (even after '08) but NC now a smashmouth must-win heavy investment state. What estab *thinks* VA is.

Trump failure to invest in data-intensive boots-on-ground NC GOTV suggests to me, absent sudden wave, he loses even if leading in polls.

Why? Because of the huge AfAm population in NC, plus influx of upper-middle-class to Research Triangle. Believe me, Dems are aware of this.

And of course this has downticket repercussions. Which is why, even though Sen. Burr's opponent basically "generic D," has real shot in Nov.

https://twitter.com/esotericcd/status/776893308706619392

Ground game ground game ground game..

Imagine the GOP's heartbreak if Trump comes close, and if ground game would've won it all for him. And imagine this costing them the Senate.

 

[User 463088]

Trump supporters more excited and more likely to vote.

Actually, no, I don't think that's entirely it. The intention to vote has almost always favored Hillary, outside of a handful of days.

The issue is how they structured their poll. Only half of their poll is people that have actually voted before. They then asked these people to self-identify who they voted for in 2012. (This is terrible, because people rarely report this correctly when asked, and there's a larger likelihood you report voting for the person who won.) The other half of the sample is made up of new voters or people who have never, ever voted before. Which, is just stupid. So, they started out with a shit sample, and since they poll the same people, the shit sample is going to stay shit. That's why they have a 5 point bias, which, you know, I think makes them kinda worthless, except if you want to watch trends a bit. But even that is fucked, because there's no way Trump can go from 2 points to 22 points in two days among Black voters.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Update: Twitter suspended Glenn Reynolds (Tennessee law professor) from the service for three hours for advocating the murder of black protesters, but then un-suspended him after shitheads cried. Now Reynolds continues to say that the protesters should have been murdered.

 

[nature boy]

Actually, no, I don't think that's entirely it. The intention to vote has almost always favored Hillary, outside of a handful of days.

The issue is how they structured their poll. Only half of their poll is people that have actually voted before. They then asked these people to self-identify who they voted for in 2012. (This is terrible, because people rarely report this correctly when asked, and there's a larger likelihood you report voting for the person who won.) The other half of the sample is made up of new voters or people who have never, ever voted before. Which, is just stupid. So, they started out with a shit sample, and since they poll the same people, the shit sample is going to stay shit. That's why they have a 5 point bias, which, you know, I think makes them kinda worthless, except if you want to watch trends a bit. But even that is fucked, because there's no way Trump can go from 2 points to 22 points in two days among Black voters.

I agree the poll has big issues, but that's how the director of the poll explains it.

 

[User 463088]

I agree the poll has big issues, but that's how the director of the poll explains it.

OH ya, I saw the defense. I guess they can't just come out and say "Well, you know, we're dumb."

 

[Beer Monkey]

My poor parents live outside of Cincinnati and are surrounded by Trump supporters everywhere. They've got the only Hillary sign in their neighborhood and someone ripped it out last night and threw it in a ditch. It's a nice neighborhood too so you wouldn't really expect that kind of behavior.

I live in Cincinnati proper and I'm trying to calm down Hillary supporters who steal/destroy Trump signs in our neighborhood, so it does happen both ways.

I am proud to say that my precinct in 2012 delivered 783 votes for Obama and only 102 for Romney. I just pulled up the 2012 BOE spreadsheet.

 

[tedrotheredro]

Update: Twitter suspended Glenn Reynolds (Tennessee law professor) from the service for three hours for advocating the murder of black protesters, but then un-suspended him after shitheads cried. Now Reynolds continues to say that the protesters should have been murdered.

Yuck, I hope my alma mater does the right thing

EDIT: In fact, I'm writing a letter to the chancellor now.

 

[Iolo]

A few tweets from the Decision Desk guy regarding North Carolina:
Ground game ground game ground game..

Imagine the GOP's heartbreak if Trump comes close, and if ground game would've won it all for him. And imagine this costing them the Senate.

This is why I don't understand the point of 538's polls-plus. It has all these corrections built in, such as for convention bounce and number of endorsements (!), but nothing for ... ground game disparity?

Maybe because we don't have a good scientific understanding of how ground game affects things (we should after this election!), but I think the other values he is using are essentially an art as well.

 

[whyamihere]

Turns out those Iowa stats were incomplete.

 

[Aaron Strife]

A few tweets from the Decision Desk guy regarding North Carolina:







https://twitter.com/esotericcd/status/776893308706619392

Ground game ground game ground game..

Imagine the GOP's heartbreak if Trump comes close, and if ground game would've won it all for him. And imagine this costing them the Senate.

Ross may be Generic D but Burr is no better than Generic R at this point.

Dude probably got elected in 04 and assumed he had a Senate seat for life.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Ross may be Generic D but Burr is no better than Generic R at this point.

Dude probably got elected in 04 and assumed he had a Senate seat for life.

Well that seat did have a curse until he broke it. Obama's seat has a curse too. The curse is 1 termers

 

[nature boy]

OH ya, I saw the defense. I guess they can't just come out and say "Well, you know, we're dumb."

They're trying to do something different and instead of saying "hey guys, it's completely different, it's not a conventional poll" they just roll with it playing dumb.

He explains it here (it's not Bill O'Reilly interviewing):

http://www.billoreilly.com/b/Who-is-Actually-Going-to-Win-the-Election/-839416400557827847.html

Still think it's a bit deceiving, if they don't properly explain it.

 

[Ecotic]

It's such a shame about Georgia, it has a much higher African American proportion than North Carolina but is not as competitive.

 

[Fragamemnon]

Dude probably got elected in 04 and assumed he had a Senate seat for life.

I think he was happy being Senator provided he didn't have to work for it.

Also it's Edwards/Dole/Hagan/Tillis' seat that's cursed.

 

[Cesare Borgia]

A few tweets from the Decision Desk guy regarding North Carolina:







https://twitter.com/esotericcd/status/776893308706619392

Ground game ground game ground game..

Imagine the GOP's heartbreak if Trump comes close, and if ground game would've won it all for him. And imagine this costing them the Senate.

NC is the most interesting state to me. If you like local movements, grass roots, etc then it's a fascinating place. Trump is perhaps the perfect candidate to create a perfect storm effect there: he is the culmination of everything the grassroots has been organizing in opposition to over the last 5 years. I agree that Hillary will win the state/out-perform polls there.

The general lack of attention paid to ground game organizing by the media - as well as republicans - continues to amaze me. I still don't understand it from a republican perspective. Under normal circumstances (ie a regular nominee) republicans would have some basic semblance of a ground game...but it still would be inadequate. Hell, TBH I'm convinced that if Rubio was the nominee the ground game wouldn't be much different from Trump's (just based on the Rubio strategy for the primaries, which mirrored Trump's in terms of little to no ground presence).

It's like they're perpetually stuck in a 2000s mind frame: pool some absentee ballots from senior citizen homes and that's enough. But they aren't even doing that this year on any major level.

 

[whyamihere]

NC is the most interesting state to me. If you like local movements, grass roots, etc then it's a fascinating place. Trump is perhaps the perfect candidate to create a perfect storm effect there: he is the culmination of everything the grassroots has been organizing in opposition to over the last 5 years. I agree that Hillary will win the state/out-perform polls there.

The general lack of attention paid to ground game organizing by the media - as well as republicans - continues to amaze me. I still don't understand it from a republican perspective. Under normal circumstances (ie a regular nominee) republicans would have some basic semblance of a ground game...but it still would be inadequate. Hell, TBH I'm convinced that if Rubio was the nominee the ground game wouldn't be much different from Trump's (just based on the Rubio strategy for the primaries, which mirrored Trump's in terms of little to no ground presence).

It's like they're perpetually stuck in a 2000s mind frame: pool some absentee ballots from senior citizen homes and that's enough. But they aren't even doing that this year on any major level.

Dems in NC are requesting more absentee ballots this year! It's insane!

 

[mo60]

Dems in NC are requesting more absentee ballots this year! It's insane!

You can probably thank the state GOP for that plus trump in general.

 

[Teggy]

Update: Twitter suspended Glenn Reynolds (Tennessee law professor) from the service for three hours for advocating the murder of black protesters, but then un-suspended him after shitheads cried. Now Reynolds continues to say that the protesters should have been murdered.

This is a tough thing. Since twitter refuses to moderate their service they don't have much of a defense when banning one particular user. There are plenty of users saying you should kill cops and they don't get banned.

 

[OmniOne]

Turns out those Iowa stats were incomplete.

Oh?

The Absentee ballot request count? Is there updated data?

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

This is a tough thing. Since twitter refuses to moderate their service they don't have much of a defense when banning one particular user. There are plenty of users saying you should kill cops and they don't get banned.

Advocating murder should get you banned tbh.

Twitter unbanned someone just because they didn't ban other people too because Twitter didn't notice them... I mean, I don't think most punishment systems work that way?

 

[whyamihere]

Oh?

The Absentee ballot request count? Is there updated data?

No, not yet. The Iowa SoS is still working on it.

 

[dramatis]

NC is the most interesting state to me. If you like local movements, grass roots, etc then it's a fascinating place. Trump is perhaps the perfect candidate to create a perfect storm effect there: he is the culmination of everything the grassroots has been organizing in opposition to over the last 5 years. I agree that Hillary will win the state/out-perform polls there.

The general lack of attention paid to ground game organizing by the media - as well as republicans - continues to amaze me. I still don't understand it from a republican perspective. Under normal circumstances (ie a regular nominee) republicans would have some basic semblance of a ground game...but it still would be inadequate. Hell, TBH I'm convinced that if Rubio was the nominee the ground game wouldn't be much different from Trump's (just based on the Rubio strategy for the primaries, which mirrored Trump's in terms of little to no ground presence).

It's like they're perpetually stuck in a 2000s mind frame: pool some absentee ballots from senior citizen homes and that's enough. But they aren't even doing that this year on any major level.

It think it's probably more likely due to individual candidate issues. Trump is a cheapskate, Rubio is lazy.

It's hard to say how Jeb, Cruz, or Kasich might have fared in terms of ground game. Jeb seemed like a guy who thought money would solve his problems (very Romney-esque) and thought he could pull in Hispanics because he could speak Spanish. Cruz was very sly about his strategy and tactics back during the primaries, so maybe he could have had strong ground game. I think it certainly doesn't help how a strong data operation was built by Obama's campaign in 2012 and Hillary's campaign refined it for operation for 2016, while Trump eschewed a data operation because he's still stuck in the 80s and thinking he can coast to victory off of media presence alone.

 

[hammysaurusrex]

I predict Cruz would have had a very strong ground game - he was running a pretty sophisticated campaign in terms of data.

Of course ground games work only in the margins, and Cruz wasn't in the margins in hindsight.

 

[Veritigo_X]

I live in Cincinnati proper and I'm trying to calm down Hillary supporters who steal/destroy Trump signs in our neighborhood, so it does happen both ways.

I am proud to say that my precinct in 2012 delivered 783 votes for Obama and only 102 for Romney. I just pulled up the 2012 BOE spreadsheet.

It just shows how much more divisive this election is compared to past elections. They've pretty much always been the only dems on the street (only vocal dems at least), and it has never been a problem for them. It's mostly disturbing for them that a neighbor would do this. I guess it could've been someone else outside the neighborhood, but they don't exactly live in a high traffic area.

 

[Iolo]

No, not yet. The Iowa SoS is still working on it.

Adjusted Leader Trump +100,000