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[Plinko]

Cruz miscalculated Trump's support. He simply realized that he will need these people for his 2020 run.

This right here. This is all about his quest to be the next Reagan.

Off-the-cuff prediction:

Kasich holds out and says he won't be bullied by the GOP.

2020's race is Hillary (D) vs. Cruz (R) vs. Kasich (I). First race in decades where an independent has a decent chance. I think the hatred of Cruz within the party will have people preparing a third-party independent run long before the primaries even start, and Kasich would be a good choice for that.

 

[IggyChooChoo]

Makes zero sense to me why they keep doing this in states where the candidate is off the ballot. Are they thinking people will write in?


He had nothing I tell you. From rags to riches!


This guy keeps making all the worst decisions this election. Remember that RNC speech? What was even the point now?

I was one of those who thought his convention speech was a good move (assuming Trump loses, which still seems like a good bet). Cruz couldn't hold out a couple more weeks? He couldn't hold out until Tuesday? This, this is just dumb.

 

[whyamihere]

Makes zero sense to me why they keep doing this in states where the candidate is off the ballot. Are they thinking people will write in?

iirc, there is no write in on the Nevada ballot.

Here are full results:

North Carolina:

Hillary: 44
Trump: 40
Johnson: 9
Stein: 3 (note: not on the ballot in NC)

Hillary: 48
Trump: 45

Nevada:

Hillary: 42
Trump: 42
Johnson: 7
Stein: 3 (note: not on the ballot in NV)

Hillary: 49
Trump: 46

Ohio:

Trump: 41
Hillary: 39
Johnson: 11
Stein: 4

Hillary: 46
Trump: 46

Pennsylvania:

Hillary: 46
Trump: 38
Johnson: 8
Stein: 3

Hillary: 51
Trump: 42

Married Women (Romney won this ground by 9):

Hillary: 47
Trump: 39
Johnson/Stein: 11

Unmarried Women:

Hillary: 62
Trump: 24
Johnson/Stein: 9

Millennials:

Hillary: 40
Trump: 28
Johnson: 19
Stein: 6

White Millennials (Romney won this group by 9):

Hillary: 33
Trump: 32
Johnson: 22
Stein: 5

College Educated:

Hillary: 46
Trump: 34
Johnson/Stein: 16

Non-College Educated:

Hillary: 40
Trump: 45
Johnson/Stein: 10

White College Educated:

Hillary: 39
Trump: 39
Johnson/Stein: 18

White Non-College Educated:

Hillary: 31
Trump: 54
Johnson/Stein: 11

White Non-College Educated Men:

Hillary: 18
Trump: 63
Johnson/Stein: 13

White Non-College Educated Women:

Hillary: 42
Trump: 45
Johnson/Stein: 9

White College Men:

Hillary: 28
Trump: 47
Johnson/Stein: 21

White College Women:

Hillary: 49
Trump: 33
Johnson/Stein: 14

"White working class male share would have to jump 10 points in
North Carolina and 11 points in Pennsylvania for Trump to carry
the states"

Favorables:

Minorities:

Hillary: +48
Trump: -69

Unmarried Women:

Hillary: +27
Trump: -55

Millennials:

Hillary: -23
Trump: -34

White Millennials:

Hillary: -34
Trump: -26

 

[Wilsongt]

Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram‏ @ChadPergram

Hse Oversight Cmte Chair Chaffetz says FBI gives Clinton aide Cheryl Mills immunity deal in federal probe into Clinton’s email server.
Sep 23, 2016, 11:30 AM
22 RETWEETS
19 LIKES

Eh?

 

[BlastProcessing]

U.S. intel officials probe ties between Trump adviser and Kremlin




WOW

fryshocked.gif

 

[Boke1879]

Cruz miscalculated Trump's support. He simply realized that he will need these people for his 2020 run.

Pretty much. Cruz was better off not attending the RNC for his sake. I loved seeing that shit unfold though.

But Cruz supporters were already going with Trump and I'm sure he sees that not. He put himself between a rock and a hard place because no one will forget what he did at the RNC.

 

[darkstar0155]

Good polls. Ohio continues to be disappointing (aka Ohio) and Nevada remains tied.

depending on how the debates go (as in optics and moving the polls), Hillary is going to lose Ohio. Johnson is hugely eating into her voters that are independent/slight left lean

 

[davepoobond]

good job Ted

hopefully this ruins his political career

 

[Zukkoyaki]

Boy, 538 sure did pick a terrible time, yesterday, to publish an article about how Hillary isn't rebounding. Within 24 hours, a ton of polls now show her +5 or so with improvements in her numbers.

That WSJ poll was really the turning point, wasn't it?

I'm feeling REALLY good about the rest of the race now. The entire country saw Hillary faint at a 9/11 ceremony after weeks of people smearing her health and now we've gotten a steady flow of +4-6 polls and improving state polls. Also the "firewall" states managed to hold up through all of that as well.

 

[Hopfrog]

This right here. This is all about his quest to be the next Reagan.

Off-the-cuff prediction:

Kasich holds out and says he won't be bullied by the GOP.

2020's race is Hillary (D) vs. Cruz (R) vs. Kasich (I). First race in decades where an independent has a decent chance. I think the hatred of Cruz within the party will have people preparing a third-party independent run long before the primaries even start, and Kasich would be a good choice for that.

Kasich will only have a chance if Hillary allows anyone working in the FEMA forced labor camps to vote. Which she won't.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Pretty much. Cruz was better off not attending the RNC for his sake. I loved seeing that shit unfold though.

But Cruz supporters were already going with Trump and I'm sure he sees that not. He put himself between a rock and a hard place because no one will forget what he did at the RNC.

I have some Cruz-loving (possibly worshipping) #NeverTrump people on my Facebook feed (I've unfollowed them so as to not see the flow of nonsense). I wonder if they'll follow their idol or stick with their original stances. Cruz can do no wrong with them, so I assume their worldviews will adjust themselves accordingly.

 

[nature boy]

After the RNC (first 3 sentences):

*Waits for Trump tweet thanking Cruz for his support*

 

[Holmes]

Just need a good debate performance, preferably three good performances, a strong push in October and we can put this election to bed.

2020's race is Hillary (D) vs. Cruz (R) vs. Kasich (I). First race in decades where an independent has a decent chance. I think the hatred of Cruz within the party will have people preparing a third-party independent run long before the primaries even start, and Kasich would be a good choice for that.

Interesting. Clinton would win, but I wouldn't be confident in a 270+ win. Kasich would win Ohio. Clinton would win Pennsylvania but I could see Cruz coming in third. Cruz would probably win Iowa and Florida for Clinton. Virginia for Clinton and probably North Carolina. Colorado might actually be close depending on how educated whites go (I do think they're more likely to stay D in CO compared to a state like GA).

 

[Joe Shlabotnik]

Wow, if she can manage to pull into a measurable lead in NC by election day that really really really wraps it up. PA/VA/NC. I was thinking it was a nice cushion just in case but he could win Ohio, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, all of Maine and Wisconsin and she'd still win.

 

[NeoXChaos]

Can we stop the 2020 talk? We got enough on our hands with 2016.

 

[Spiritreaver]

Boy, 538 sure did pick a terrible time, yesterday, to publish an article about how Hillary isn't rebounding. Within 24 hours, a ton of polls now show her +5 or so with improvements in her numbers.

Lol, I remember eyerolling at that article the other day.

 

[Cyanity]

Good polls today. I picked the right weekend for a feel-good psychedelic adventure.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Josh, plz:

Greenberg poll (D) only has Clinton up ONE pt (!) over Trump w white millennials, 33-32%. Wow.

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/779407941556379652

(Obama lost white millennials by 7 points in 2012).

 

[Spiritreaver]

Is this the FIRST weekend PoliGAF won't be in full panic mode? You all are usually insufferable every Friday.

 

[Grief.exe]

My guess is Reince was leaning on Cruz pretty hard with funding and support for future presidential bids.

 

[Boke1879]

Is this the FIRST weekend PoliGAF won't be in full panic mode? You all are usually insufferable every Friday.

You kidding? This place is going to be panicking about a debate that hasn't happened yet

 

[Boke1879]

My guess is Reince was leaning on Cruz pretty hard with funding and support for future presidential bids.

I wouldn't listen to anything Reince has to say. He's done

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

My guess is Reince was leaning on Cruz pretty hard with funding and support for future presidential bids.

Ted Cruz is never going to be president and will never be competitive in a primary again.

 

[Hopfrog]

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 20m20 minutes ago
CapitulaTED

.

 

[Randolph Freelander]

Josh Barro ‏@jbarro 15 minutes ago
Ted Cruz would publicly call Heidi ugly himself if he thought it would help him get elected president.

No lies detecTED

Olivia Nuzzi ‏@Olivianuzzi 21 minutes ago
Is Ted Cruz's Trump endorsement a tacit admission that Rafael Cruz was Lee Harvey Oswald's co-conspirator?

These questions must be asked.

 

[Box of Kittens]

What the fuck is kiwi farms?

I'm sad that I even know this, but it's a forum dedicated to mocking and bullying an autistic person who made a bad comic. It, along with ED, were my biggest WTF's with that list.

 

[Spiritreaver]

You kidding? This place is going to be panicking about a debate that hasn't happened yet

Obviously Cruz is endorsing because he found out what Trump is going to say to Hillary Monday.

Trump landslide incoming.

 

[RastaMentality]

You kidding? This place is going to be panicking about a debate that hasn't happened yet

Sunday is gonna be crazy.

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

Chad Pergram
Chad Pergram‏ @ChadPergram

Hse Oversight Cmte Chair Chaffetz says FBI gives Clinton aide Cheryl Mills immunity deal in federal probe into Clinton’s email server.
Sep 23, 2016, 11:30 AM
22 RETWEETS
19 LIKES

Eh?

I mean, if the FBI basically told this woman "tell us everything you know and even if it's that Hillary personally told you to delete the email where she ordered Ben Ghazi killed you'll be OK," and they still didn't think there was anything prosecutable... If anything learning that makes me feel better

 

[Veritigo_X]

My guess is Reince was leaning on Cruz pretty hard with funding and support for future presidential bids.

Reince has no say in that matter and is on his way out anyway. Cruz thinks Trump is going to win and doesn't want his RNC speech to look foolish.

 

[Kid Heart]

POLITICO ‏@politico 8s9 seconds ago
#BREAKING: Ted Cruz says he will vote for @realDonaldTrump

Welp, there went the one iota of respect I had Cruz.

I mean, who gains from this anyway? Most of Cruz's supporters I assume either already jumped ship to Trump, or will refuse to vote anyway. It just makes Cruz look like a spineless coward.

 

[Boke1879]

Obviously Cruz is endorsing because he found out what Trump is going to say to Hillary Monday.

Trump landslide incoming.

I promise you right now there are some people here that wishes they could freeze themselves until Tuesday morning.

Reince has no say in that matter and is on his way out anyway. Cruz thinks Trump is going to win and doesn't want his RNC speech to look foolish.

That or he knows he needs that support for an eventual run in 2020

 

[PeakPointMatrix]

Hey y'all.

I want to watch the debate with some friends live, problem is we won't be able to gather in one place until after it has begun. Which of the streaming sites will allow you to reverse the live footage to catch what we missed? I recall some sites allowing you to slide the player head back to whatever live footage had already elapsed.

Any help is appreciated. This Monday is going to be fucking Super Bowl Sunday.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

538 gives Jim Gray a better chance of beating Rand Paul than of Strickland beating Portman. Sad!

 

[Dan]

Reince has no say in that matter and is on his way out anyway. Cruz thinks Trump is going to win and doesn't want his RNC speech to look foolish.

I doubt it's even that. It's just that win or lose Cruz's potential base for the next election doesn't look pleased with his refusal to show support.

 

[Veritigo_X]

I doubt it's even that. It's just that win or lose Cruz's potential base for the next election doesn't look pleased with his refusal to show support.

That or he knows he needs that support for an eventual run in 2020

I guess my thinking assumes that Republicans actually learn something for this election. He was poised for a good "I told you so" but that wouldn't do anything for him if we've still got a lot of true believing Trumpers in 2020.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

The LA Times poll got posted in the Gaming Side thread about white supremacists and VR, omg.

 

[thefro]

538 gives Jim Gray a better chance of beating Rand Paul than of Strickland beating Portman. Sad!

Gray's got some strong TV ads (not Kander-level, but pretty good) that are airing a lot so it wouldn't surprise me if the race gets closer than Ohio's Senate race.

 

[Boke1879]

I guess my thinking assumes that Republicans actually learn something for this election. He was poised for a good "I told you so" but that wouldn't do anything for him if we've still got a lot of true believing Trumpers in 2020.

Yep. I'm sure a part of Cruz thinks there is a chance Trump wins. But I think he knows his base has consolidated around Trump. Cruz has an ego as well. He just doesn't want to look like a fool. (He still does. Even more so now.)

 

[Teggy]

Freakin' millennials

Ronald Brownstein
‏@RonBrownstein
In @DemCorps battleground poll % who say election "matters tremendously": Republicans 75%, African Americans 67, Latinos 59, Millennials 51

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Gray's got some strong TV ads (not Kander-level, but pretty good) that are airing a lot so it wouldn't surprise me if the race gets closer than Ohio's Senate race.

I mean, Kentucky is one of Trump's (likely) strongest states and Gray is gay and Rand Paul is a hugely well known figure who appeals to Never Trumpers with his hatred of the poor and to Trumpers with being absolutely unhinged.

It just seems like a huge mismatch, but I hope Gray does well.

 

[Debirudog]

worst generation.

 

[teiresias]

Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 20m20 minutes ago
CapitulaTED

.

Is he referencing Cruz and Trump or himself and ESPN?

 

[RastaMentality]

Freakin' millennials

Those minority numbers are kinda low :/ I hope Obama can put the fear of God into everybody during October.

 

[Beer Monkey]

Hillary responds to Cruz's endorsement.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Interesting. Clinton would win, but I wouldn't be confident in a 270+ win. Kasich would win Ohio. Clinton would win Pennsylvania but I could see Cruz coming in third. Cruz would probably win Iowa and Florida for Clinton. Virginia for Clinton and probably North Carolina. Colorado might actually be close depending on how educated whites go (I do think they're more likely to stay D in CO compared to a state like GA).

This purely hypothetical scenario would likely lead to an Electoral College landslide for Hillary since the right-wing vote would be split. See the 1912 presidential election for an example of how this works out.

 

[Farmboy]

Cruz made a calculation around the convention that looked smart then. He's doong the same thing now.

 

[Dan]

I guess my thinking assumes that Republicans actually learn something for this election. He was poised for a good "I told you so" but that wouldn't do anything for him if we've still got a lot of true believing Trumpers in 2020.

I think, unfortunately, there's little evidence that Republican voters want to learn anything. Some of the party figures, yes, they see the writing on the wall and would like a way to move forward some. But we've also seen that the GOP leadership is terrified of trying to move its voters away from the extreme side. With no one to lead the flock towards tolerating, if not embracing, a multicultural nation, I don't see voters getting there by themselves any time soon.

 

[BlastProcessing]

@Zigmanfreud
Ted Cruz was with Trump when he could've beaten him & against him when he couldn't. Then he non-endorsed with max damage, & caved for 0 gain

That just about sums it up.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Is this the FIRST weekend PoliGAF won't be in full panic mode? You all are usually insufferable every Friday.

Last Friday we were all crowing about how Trump shot himself in the foot and pissed off the media.

.

Surely this earns Nate a little good will on GAF.