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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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K

Kalnos

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
I mean, Kentucky is one of Trump's (likely) strongest states and Gray is gay and Rand Paul is a hugely well known figure who appeals to Never Trumpers with his hatred of the poor and to Trumpers with being absolutely unhinged.

It just seems like a huge mismatch, but I hope Gray does well.
Click to expand...

Gray can't win but Matt Bevin is being a huge douche and that's at least some motivation for Dems in Jefferson and Fayette county. Trump can't lose here because of coal.
 
P

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
NeoXChaos said:
Can we stop the 2020 talk? We got enough on our hands with 2016.
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Sorry--didn't realize this was a 2016-only discussion thread. Odd considering I see people always bring up 2018 and 2020 Congressional races.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Cruz's calculation is that it's safe to back Trump in case he wins because nobody in the party is going to give a fuck about who supported Trump in 2020 if he loses, and he's probably right.
 
F

Finale Fireworker

Member
I've just realized that the whole "William Taft got stuck in a bathtub" story was, for many years, taken as a literal account of an actual event.

I've always known that William Taft was our heaviest president and that he had an extra large tub moved into the White House. I always thought the "Taft was so big he got stuck in a bath tub!" was a facetious remark referencing the fact that he needed a huge bathtub to accommodate him.

I didn't think anybody actually believed he literally, physically, entered a bathtub he could not get out of.

Now I sort of understand why Benji was calling me out for perpetuating "myths" when I referenced Taft's bathtub.
 
B

Basileus777

Member
Joe Shlabotnik said:
Cruz's calculation is that it's safe to back Trump in case he wins because nobody in the party is going to give a fuck about who supported Trump in 2020 if he loses, and he's probably right.
Click to expand...

That calculation came months too late after he had already tanked his favorability with Republicans. Now he just looks like a tool.
 
B

banefirelord

Banned
Finale Fireworker said:
I've just realized that the whole "William Taft got stuck in a bathtub" story was, for many years, taken as a literal account of an actual event.

I've always known that William Taft was our heaviest president and that he had an extra large tub moved into the White House. I always thought the "Taft was so big he got stuck in a bath tub!" was a facetious remark referencing the fact that he needed a huge bathtub to accommodate him.

I didn't think anybody actually believe he literally, physically, entered a bathtub he could not get out of.

Now I sort of understand why Benji was calling me out for perpetuating "myths" when I referenced Taft's bathtub.
Click to expand...
TIL Taft didn't actually get stuck in a bathtub. I distinctly recall reading some "Facts about the Presidents" book in 2nd grade that ingrained that into my head as a true thing that happened.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
I think Ted Cruz is continuing to prove himself to be a horrible politician. This is a man who multiple times let Harry Reid screw over the GOP because he didn't understand the rules.

This is a man who made an awful decision at the RNC unlike Kasich.

Ted Cruz is not as smart as people think he is. Him and Rubio set their political futures on fire this year and I, for one, am glad to see it happen.

adam387 said:
USC finally updated
Trump almost lost another point.
Click to expand...

The lead did drop to 1, fwiw.

I said a couple weeks ago that Hillary's lead is likely in the 4-6 (or maybe I said 4-8) range and I think that's still true.
 
H

Hopfrog

Member
Black Mamba said:
I think Ted Cruz is continuing to prove himself to be a horrible politician. This is a man who multiple times let Harry Reid screw over the GOP because he didn't understand the rules.

This is a man who made an awful decision at the RNC unlike Kasich.

Ted Cruz is not as smart as people think he is. Him and Rubio set their political futures on fire this year and I, for one, am glad to see it happen.



The lead did drop to 1, fwiw.

I said a couple weeks ago that Hillary's lead is likely in the 4-6 (or maybe I said 4-8) range and I think that's still true.
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Let's dispel once and for all with the fiction that Ted Cruz doesn't know what he is doing, he knows exactly what he is doing.
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Greenberg polls look like good news.

Also the NC/NV numbers (and Florida from other polls) and hell even a near-tie in Ohio (which is just a tie in the two way!) demonstrate how dumb the liberal potty dancing is over the blue wall holding up. These states are all coin flips at worst but Clinton winning any of them (well NV not as much) would make it nigh impossible for Trump to win. Notice every dumb fantasy map that shows Trump's path to victory (usually ones posted by a certain banned poster) take for granted that Trump will win all of these states.

Of Obama's 2012 states the only one that looks like it could be out of reach is Iowa. And while I hope Clinton can bring it back into the fold, if she loses it who cares? The states she leads in add up to 320+ EVs. Do the math.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Black Mamba said:
I think Ted Cruz is continuing to prove himself to be a horrible politician. This is a man who multiple times let Harry Reid screw over the GOP because he didn't understand the rules.

This is a man who made an awful decision at the RNC unlike Kasich.

Ted Cruz is not as smart as people think he is. Him and Rubio set their political futures on fire this year and I, for one, am glad to see it happen.



The lead did drop to 1, fwiw.

I said a couple weeks ago that Hillary's lead is likely in the 4-6 (or maybe I said 4-8) range and I think that's still true.
Click to expand...

Yup. I loved seeing Cruz up there because I love seeing the GOP in disarray. But he was better off for his own sake to just not show up.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Things have really turned around this week, it feels a lot better. I'm feeling very hopeful about North Carolina and Florida.
 
B

Black Mamba

Member
The USC poll looks like a giant mess. The 2012 RAND survey was so much more consistent.

The swings in the vote make no sense. It seems like a huge amount of voters are non-commital but we know that's not true.

USC-LA Times sample is funky.
 
F

Finale Fireworker

Member
banefirelord said:
TIL Taft didn't actually get stuck in a bathtub. I distinctly recall reading some "Facts about the Presidents" book in 2nd grade that ingrained that into my head as a true thing that happened.
Click to expand...

How deep does it go? Did George Washington really chop down that cherry treee? Did Abraham Lincoln really wear a top hat?

Wait, there were TWO John Adamses? Deja vu usually means they changed something in the matrix...

Oh my God what is real
 
A

aspiegamer

Member
How long do you have to be part of PoliGAF before you start getting royalties on all the work we supposedly do to harm the internet/freedom/'Murica/free speech? But seriously, is there anywhere online where banned people hold more of a grudge? And why is this?

The rules (as applied) here are extremely simple! Don't insult other members, don't shitpost, and don't be a bigot. That's really really not asking a lot of people. Stuff like that -should- be pretty standard. Do basic policies like that really make us some liberal bastion of the internet? If so, I'm not sure how I survived 20 years on the internet before joining GAF. *shrug*

...In less depressing news, have things improved enough vs a week ago that we can change the thread title yet? And lolCruz. What a wuss. The only man who left the RNC with gonads still attached just to toss them away at random closer to election day. I swear CNN has been expecting this for months given all the contradictory footage they instantly had available.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Black Mamba said:
The USC poll looks like a giant mess. The 2012 RAND survey was so much more consistent.

The swings in the vote make no sense. It seems like a huge amount of voters are non-commital but we know that's not true.

USC-LA Times sample is funky.
Click to expand...

Maybe the USC-LA poll is the only true unskewed poll out there and all of the others are wrong.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
The white vote, explained.

If you are don't have a college degree and are super religious, Trump is your god-king:

beckman-religion-education1.png


If you have a college degree and you never attend church, Trump looks more Hitler-like.
 
C

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
Zukkoyaki said:
It's because they organize them by weight, and how they weigh them depends on their current TREND-LINES narrative and other stuff that makes absolutely no sense. It's obnoxious.
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Weight is based on three things - Pollster Ratings (which were set middle of the year based on previous performance), sample size, and how recent the questions were asked (not the date the poll was released, but over what days they did the polling).

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/

Seriously, the entire explanation of the model is there and has been for months. It's kind of funny watching folks bash the model and reveal that they never bothered to read the handy dandy primer put out that actually explains it in pretty significant detail.

HylianTom said:
Remember that time where Nate told everyone to wait a week before panicking?

Well..

:)
Click to expand...

Indeed.
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The white vote, explained.

If you are don't have a college degree and are super religious, Trump is your god-king:

beckman-religion-education1.png


If you have a college degree and you never attend church, Trump looks more Hitler-like.
Click to expand...

The dumber you are the dumber you vote.

Or rather, the less educated you are about the world, the more likely you are to vote for people who actively skew the way the world works. Mr Preacherman has a lot of sway.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
The white vote, explained.

If you are don't have a college degree and are super religious, Trump is your god-king:

beckman-religion-education1.png


If you have a college degree and you never attend church, Trump looks more Hitler-like.
Click to expand...

Atheists going hard for a fairly devout Methodist; evangelicals wedding themselves to a godless amoralist.
 
U

User1608

Banned
What's disturbing to me are the Trump supporters who aren't bigoted at all (as far as I know) but are super friendly and unassuming. I can only assume it's for tax reasons or such. Even then, bad look and I don't have much respect for them. Just some thoughts I've been having.
Joe Shlabotnik said:
Atheists going hard for a fairly devout Methodist; evangelicals wedding themselves to a godless amoralist.
Click to expand...
Truly interesting how life works out.
 
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