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PoliGAF 2016 |OT11| Well this is exciting

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O

OmniOne

Member
Zukkoyaki said:
It's because they organize them by weight, and how they weigh them depends on their current TREND-LINES narrative and other stuff that makes absolutely no sense. It's obnoxious.
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How can you follow a chronological trend when OMGWEIGHTS? Makes it harder to tie data to events?
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
I mean, GRAVIS LOL, but that poll, given their bias, would be pretty consistent with a solid Clinton rebound from the I'M DEPLORABLY DYING!!! weekend/week.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Cruz is making a big, disappointing mistake. He must think Trump is going to win, but even that seems like a poor excuse given that Trump will never forgive him for the RNC performance. Speaking of which, that speech now goes from the greatest moment of Cruz's career to...nothing. Assuming this news is true.

Predicting who will matter politically in four years is always fools gold but I don't think it was farfetched to say Cruz could have been in a good position for 2020, he would have had the "I told you so" card, and he could slam Paul Ryan and others for years for cowering to Trump.

Perhaps another calculation: maybe Cruz is worried about Rick Perry challenging him? Cruz has some Texas donors but can't compete with Perry $ wise if multiple industries throw their weight into the race. Cruz is the better politician obviously but it could be a damaging race that could tip either way depending on how things go.
 
O

OmniOne

Member
whyamihere said:
I mean, GRAVIS LOL, but that poll, given their bias, would be pretty consistent with a solid Clinton rebound from the I'M DEPLORABLY DYING!!! weekend/week.
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Wasn't she already trending down before those two events? It's hard to tell if it was just a continuing of existing factors (a real decline, or maybe bad polls) vs. Deplorables or pneumoniagate. I'd think the latter would have had longer lasting effects if they were going to have an effect at all. It seems no one really cared, and here we are closer to where we were in august
 
N

nature boy

Member
“One key example of how deadlocked the electorate is right now is President Barack Obama’s approval rating,” he added.

“Thirty-five percent strongly approve and 36 percent strongly disapprove of Obama’s job performance,” Kaplan said. “Fourteen percent approve and 13 percent disapprove, combining the strongly’s with the approve’s and disapprove’s, you have 49 percent in favor of the job the president is doing and 49 percent not in favor of the job the president is doing.”

Broken down by ethnic groups, Clinton leads Trump with African-Americans at 81 percent, compared to his 12 percent, and she leads with Hispanics with 50 percent to his 33 percent.

Trump is the leader with Asian-Americans with 49 percent to her 38 percent, and he leads the former first lady with whites — 49 percent to her 33 percent.

Among the respondents, only 29 percent said the country was going in the right direction, compared with 50 percent saying the country is going in the wrong direction.

Fifty-four percent of respondents said America’s position in the world was weaker than it was 10 years ago, 17 percent said it was the same and 28 percent said America is stronger.

When asked, “How would you describe how the American economy is working for you and your family?” 30 percent said it is working well. Thirty-four percent said it is working OK, and 33 percent said it is not working.

Democratic pollster Patrick Caddell told Breitbart News many voters supporting Clinton actually have a very light commitment to her, because, he argued, their attitudes and values line up more closely with Trump voters.

Caddell said another sign of weak loyalty to Clinton is the high number of Clinton supporters who said they were “unsure” about an issue. “Really what that means is that the voters does not want to tell you what they really think.”

During an appearance on Breitbart News Daily on Friday morning on SiriusXM Patriot Channel 125 with host and Washington Political Editor for Breitbart News Matthew Boyle, Caddell added that Trump is leading among the most enthusiastic portion of the electorate.

“What’s most interesting in the poll, to start with, is that, while Clinton has the lead, among those voters who are most likely, who say they always vote and are highly interested, Trump has the lead,” Caddell tells Breitbart’s Boyle.

“That is, again, about enthusiasm I suspect, and about turnout,” he adds.

More results from the poll will be released soon.
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Trump ahead with Asian-Americans? Cannot compute.

Boke1879 said:
So what are people saying about this Cruz endorsement?
Click to expand...
CNN reporter is saying he's going to endorse, per multiple sources.
 
S

Slayven

Member
RustyNails said:
This is such a perfect set up for a Hitler finds out meme

Advisor 1: Sir , we are losing in NBC/Wsj poll by 6, and marist poll by 8
Advisor 2: At this rate we will start losing the LATimes poll
Hitler: Dont worry, we still have the brietbart poll.
Advisor 1:...sir
Advisor 2:...mein fuhrer..
Click to expand...

That will never not funny
 
S

studyguy

Member
Nah, Cruz probably got hit with some awful polling data that said the largest portion of his own constituency is also incredibly racist and by cutting ties with Trump he put himself into a free fall in favorability.

There was likely no walking away from the Trump candidacy saying I TOLD YOU SO and looking clean to your own voterbase when they've all got a hard on for his populist rhetoric. Either that or that lolRince threat actually had him shook.

Kasich stays winning tho
 
T

tedrotheredro

Member
I think Cruz was hoping more republicans would denounce Trump. Instead, they either tucked their tails and hid or kissed the emperor's hand in forgiveness.
 
O

Owzers

Member
Cruz knows his wife is ugly and his father got away with murder, the only honorable thing to do is endorse Trump. You can't act offended just because someone tells it like it is.
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
I don't really see how this helps Cruz. It just makes him look like, I don't know, a man with no principles whatsoever who is willing to do and say anything to acquire power.
 
J

johnsmith

remember me
Palmer Luckey's gamergater girlfriend deleted her Twitter account, because that always works.

https://mobile.twitter.com/nikkimoxxi



Delicious irony. How can people be this fucking oblivious.

‏
@atak_jak
@nikkimoxxi has been harassed off of Twitter by SJWs for dating Palmer Lucky. Politics are absolute cancer to this industry. #Gamergate
Click to expand...

‏
@LiteralSalt
I hope @nikkimoxxi finds the courage to come back to Twitter.

No one should feel scared for having an opinion.
Click to expand...
 
W

Wilsongt

Member
Having an older, diet racist friend can be exhausting. He was just talking about the national guard converging on Charlotte because people are going to be "taken in", as in people killing each other
 
N

nature boy

Member
Box of Kittens said:
Gotta love the characterization of Pat Caddell as "Democratic Pollster." Yeah, he worked for Carter, but he's been drifting to the right ever since.
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Haha didn't recognize the name, yeah that twat is on Fox News as some sort of balance.

It's Breitbart, no respectable Dem would answer their call.
 
T

Teggy

Member
smh

CtDt_SHVIAEOskD.jpg:large
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Just to remind everyone when early voting starts:

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/09/early-voting-states-228435

Maine: As soon as ballots are printed
North Carolina: 9/9 (formal early voting is 10/20 - 11/5)
Wisconsin: Set by municipality. Started in Wisconsin Rapids on 9/19
Idaho: 9/23
Minnesota: 9/23
Vermont: 9/23 (ends 11/7)
Wyoming: 9/23 (ends 11/7)
New Jersey: 9/24
Illinois: 9/29 (ends 11/7)
Iowa: 9/29 (has already started by mail-in requests)
North Dakota: 9/29
Nebraska: 10/3 (vote in person 10/7)
California: 10/10
Montana: 10/11 (or, as soon as the ballots are ready)
New Mexico: 10/11 (can vote in person 10/22, early voting ends 11/5)
Arizona: 10/12
Indiana: 10/12
Ohio: 10/12
Georgia: 10/17
Kansas: 10/19
Oregon: 10/19
Tennessee: 10/19 (ends 11/3)
Washington: 10/21
Nevada: 10/22
South Dakota: 10/23
Alaska: 10/24
Arkansas: 10/24
Colorado: 10/24
Massachusetts: 10/24 (ends 11/4)
Texas: 10/24 (ends 11/4)
Hawaii: 10/25
Louisiana: 10/25 (ends 11/1)
Utah: 10/25 (ends 11/4)
West Virginia: 10/26 (ends 11/5)
Maryland: 10/27 (ends 11/3)
DC: 10/29
Florida: 10/29 (ends 11/5)
Oklahoma: 11/3 (ends 11/5)

Alabama: N/A
Connecticut: N/A
Delaware: N/A
Kentucky: N/A
Michigan: N/A
Mississippi: N/A
Missouri: N/A
New Hampshire: N/A
New York: N/A
Pennsylvania: N/A
Rhode Island: N/A
South Carolina: N/A
Virginia: N/A

So, congrats to everyone in Idaho, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wyoming where this nightmare could be over today for you guys.
 
E

Emarv

Member
Yeah, anecdotally but I've heard from so many true blue conservatives down here that turned on Cruz after his RNC thing. I don't think the RNC speech went over as well with the base as liberals like to think.
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
Iowa early voting update

https://sos.iowa.gov/elections/pdf/2016/general/AbsenteeCongressional2016.pdf

@ElectProject
@skoczela Let's wait and see. Iowa got off to a later start than 2012. Dems lower than then, but Dems are accelerating faster than Reps
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@ElectProject
Much of Iowa is a ground game at this stage. Appears both parties have delayed their efforts (Dems vs. 2012, Reps vs. 2014)
Click to expand...

‏@ElectProject
That said, the absentee request numbers comport with the polling showing Iowa more a battleground than 2012
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B

Box of Kittens

Banned
Emarv said:
Yeah, anecdotally but I've heard from so many true blue conservatives down here that turned on Cruz after his RNC thing. I don't think the RNC speech went over as well with the base as liberals like to think.
Click to expand...

I would have said the upside would be the opportunity to say "I warned you" after the election. It does carry the risk of being blamed for stabbing the nominee in the back. I don't think it was a clearly brilliant move but I have a hard time seeing the upside to this. Now you've given everyone a reason to hate you.
 
B

Boke1879

Member
Emarv said:
Yeah, anecdotally but I've heard from so many true blue conservatives down here that turned on Cruz after his RNC thing. I don't think the RNC speech went over as well with the base as liberals like to think.
Click to expand...

Well you gotta wonder how man Cruz supporters are already in the Trump camp. That may be a big reason as to why he's doing this. A part of him probably also believes Trump will win
 
N

nature boy

Member
U.S. intel officials probe ties between Trump adviser and Kremlin


U.S. intelligence officials are seeking to determine whether an American businessman identified by Donald Trump as one of his foreign policy advisers has opened up private communications with senior Russian officials — including talks about the possible lifting of economic sanctions if the Republican nominee becomes president, according to multiple sources who have been briefed on the issue.

The activities of Trump adviser Carter Page, who has extensive business interests in Russia, have been discussed with senior members of Congress during recent briefings about suspected efforts by Moscow to influence the presidential election, the sources said. After one of those briefings, Senate minority leader Harry Reid wrote FBI Director James Comey, citing reports of meetings between a Trump adviser (a reference to Page) and “high ranking sanctioned individuals” in Moscow over the summer as evidence of “significant and disturbing ties” between the Trump campaign and the Kremlin that needed to be investigated by the bureau.

Some of those briefed were “taken aback” when they learned about Page’s contacts in Moscow, viewing them as a possible back channel to the Russians that could undercut U.S. foreign policy, said a congressional source familiar with the briefings but who asked for anonymity due to the sensitivity of the subject. The source added that U.S. officials in the briefings indicated that intelligence reports about the adviser’s talks with senior Russian officials close to President Vladimir Putin were being “actively monitored and investigated.”

A senior U.S. law enforcement official did not dispute that characterization when asked for comment by Yahoo News. “It’s on our radar screen,” said the official about Page’s contacts with Russian officials. “It’s being looked at.”

...


Page came to the attention of officials at the U.S. Embassy in Moscow several years ago when he showed up in the Russian capital during several business trips and made provocative public comments critical of U.S. policy and sympathetic to Putin. “He was pretty much a brazen apologist for anything Moscow did,” said one U.S. official who served in Russia at the time.

He hasn’t been shy about expressing those views in the U.S. as well. Last March, shorty after he was named by Trump as one of his advisers, Page told Bloomberg News he had been an adviser to, and investor in, Gazprom, the Russian state-owned gas company. He then blamed Obama administration sanctions — imposed as a response to the Russian annexation of Crimea — for driving down the company’s stock. “So many people who I know and have worked with have been so adversely affected by the sanctions policy,” Page said in the interview. “There’s a lot of excitement in terms of the possibilities for creating a better situation.”

Page showed up again in Moscow in early July, just two weeks before the Republican National Convention formally nominated Trump for president, and once again criticized U.S. policy. Speaking at a commencement address for the New Economic School, an institution funded in part by major Russian oligarchs close to Putin, Page asserted that “Washington and other West capitals” had impeded progress in Russia “through their often hypocritical focus on ideas such as democratization, inequality, corruption and regime change.”

At the time, Page declined to say whether he was meeting with Russian officials during his trip, according to a Reuters report.

But U.S. officials have since received intelligence reports that during that same three-day trip, Page met with Igor Sechin, a longtime Putin associate and former Russian deputy prime minister who is now the executive chairman of Rosneft, Russian’s leading oil company, a well-placed Western intelligence source tells Yahoo News. That meeting, if confirmed, is viewed as especially problematic by U.S. officials because the Treasury Department in August 2014 named Sechin to a list of Russian officials and businessmen sanctioned over Russia’s “illegitimate and unlawful actions in the Ukraine.” (The Treasury announcement described Sechin as “utterly loyal to Vladimir Putin — a key component to his current standing.” At their alleged meeting, Sechin raised the issue of the lifting of sanctions with Page, the Western intelligence source said.

U.S. intelligence agencies have also received reports that Page met with another top Putin aide while in Moscow — Igor Diveykin. A former Russian security official, Diveykin now serves as deputy chief for internal policy and is believed by U.S. officials to have responsibility for intelligence collected by Russian agencies about the U.S. election, the Western intelligence source said.
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WOW
 
D

darkstar0155

Member
Box of Kittens said:
I would have said the upside would be the opportunity to say "I warned you" after the election. It does carry the risk of being blamed for stabbing the nominee in the back. I don't think it was a clearly brilliant move but I have a hard time seeing the upside to this. Now you've given everyone a reason to hate you.
Click to expand...

Yeah, regardless of if you feel his RNC speech was a good idea, or if being able to say "I told you so" is smart, but this flip flop will definitely hurt him more than help. Maybe the RNC is seeing an opening to win and pressured him to endorse?
 
M

mlclmtckr

Banned
Valhelm said:
It's a far-right satire of internet socialists and people who oppose the Trump movement

Apparently we all post on Gaf and 8chan's Leftypol board
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I don't get why Encyclopedia Dramatica is on there. Isn't it a knowyourmeme-style gator shithole these days?
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Cruz's favorables had collapsed among Republicans and he must have gotten scared that he would be blamed if Trump lost and would be completely fucked if Trump won and endorsed his primary opponents. The amount of Texas politicians with lots of cash and connections who were openly talking about primarying Cruz had to make him nervous.

I think his possibility of being competitive in a future presidential primary is over now.
 
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