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PoliGAF 2016 |OT13| For Queen and Country

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Bowdz

Member
CukUdUaWEAAAMBo.jpg

Lmao, I lost it at William Kristol. Who the fuck would want him on payroll beyond the Weekly Standard? Maybe some statistics journal for research into how he is in the 99th percentile of wrong predictions.
 

Iolo

Member
Man, Rezko made out like a bandit! Can't believe he's in the vote suppression business now

Document would've been funnier if Trump were on it for $5,000.
 

newjeruse

Member
I don't know. The Clinton Foundation's ability to cut out the inefficiencies of snack and beverage wholesalers in favor of cut-rate factory prices is more impressive to me than any economic policy Trump has proposed.
 

Slayven

Member
Is it the original Black Panthers or the New Black Panthers?

Cause don't nobody with an ounce of commonsense fuck with the New Black Panther.

even talking about them among black folks will get you a quick "Get the fuck out"
 
The crazies are getting frothy about some O'Keefe video on Monday. He has said it's embargoed with "mainstream media" dropping Monday afternoon.

They get so hyped over so little.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I don't know. The Clinton Foundation's ability to cut out the inefficiencies of snack and beverage wholesalers in favor of cut-rate factory prices is more impressive to me than any economic policy Trump has proposed.

Yea but they've obviously been conned into paying a fake water company, how can we trust them not to get conned by the Russians?

The crazies are getting frothy about some O'Keefe video on Monday. He has said it's embargoed with "mainstream media" dropping Monday afternoon.

They get so hyped over so little.

How is that shithole not in jail for breaking into and wiretapping a Senator's office again?
 

Joeytj

Banned
I'm beginning, just now, starting to think that most Trump supporters (and even his campaign) are really beginning to set themselves up for failure, both consciously and unconsciously.

What I mean is, their paranoia and belief in every lie about Hillary and in everything Trump says was frightening me because they seemed motivated to actually act and vote, and was maybe even convincing some in the general electorate (nevermind that they themselves are already a too large chunk of the voting population), but now, they are all just hurting their chances by believing that everything and everyone are against them, that they are already losing because it's rigged, that polls are lying and that they don't need anyone's help in winning, just like Trump says.

Ugh, I wish the number of undecideds and support for Johnson and Stein wasn't so high. Despite the arguments against Nate Silver's model (which I also agree with, mostly) I would sleep a lot better if there weren't so many of those undecideds and third party voters out there, enough to tip the election in an event of a massive polling error.

What happened in Michigan during the primaries can't happen in the general, it just can't...
 
The crazies are getting frothy about some O'Keefe video on Monday. He has said it's embargoed with "mainstream media" dropping Monday afternoon.

They get so hyped over so little.

I once again state for the record that if it becomes known that Hillary eats pineapple on her pizza, I'm out. I will write in Michelle Obama.
 

Joeytj

Banned
The crazies are getting frothy about some O'Keefe video on Monday. He has said it's embargoed with "mainstream media" dropping Monday afternoon.

They get so hyped over so little.

Haha, yeah right, like anyone outside of Breitbart or The Daily Caller (can't believe that's still around) would take O'Keefe seriously.

I once again state for the record that if it becomes known that Hillary eats pineapple on her pizza, I'm out. I will write in Michelle Obama.

In all seriousness tho, I'm seeing an enormous reaction to that Michelle speech, even from left-leaning Hillary haters.
 

SexyFish

Banned
The crazies are getting frothy about some O'Keefe video on Monday. He has said it's embargoed with "mainstream media" dropping Monday afternoon.

They get so hyped over so little.

I doubt even Fox News would be dumb enough to air it. The ACORN bullshit should have cratered this guy forever.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
What happened in Michigan during the primaries can't happen in the general, it just can't...

Michigan hadn't seen a competitive race in decades, no one knew what the demographics for the primary even looked like anymore. That's hardly the case with a general election.

Haha, yeah right, like anyone outside of Breitbart or The Daily Caller (can't believe that's still around) would take O'Keefe seriously.

As far as I can tell he's been persona-non-grata after the ACORN and Sherrod tapes. Fool me once and all that.
 

Iolo

Member
Ugh, I wish the number of undecideds and support for Johnson and Stein wasn't so high. Despite the arguments against Nate Silver's model (which I also agree with, mostly) I would sleep a lot better if there weren't so many of those undecideds and third party voters out there, enough to tip the election in an event of a massive polling error.

What happened in Michigan during the primaries can't happen in the general, it just can't...

So, the reason you compete in so many states, have a sprawling data operation where you model every single voter in the battleground states , a big gotv operation, and push early voting so hard is to avoid or mitigate the situation of a massive polling error. Campaigns like Trump's have to rely on every single thing going their way while feeling around by pure instinct.

So it is possible there are polling errors, but that's why you have a cushion and so many ways to reach 270.
 

Joeytj

Banned
I feel like she would be a hypocrite if she didn't. Slinging all those things at Trump supporters but not doing what she can to stop Trump.



This is what I should have said instead of what I did say at first, because it's more what I was thinking. It's bad optics and may cast doubt on all the claims by those looking to cast doubt.

Of course it happened though. Donald Trump said he does these things himself.

All of our worries about whether one of the accusers was lying or not, ignore that Trump is currently battling against several women at a time, with more to come, with less than a month before the election, losing in the polls by around 6.5 points, and possibly even more revelations (about other issues even) coming, and having lost two out of three debates.

Wish those Podesta emails would stop coming out each day, but ugh, too late for that. Otherwise, it would be perfect for Hillary.

So, the reason you compete in so many states, have a sprawling data operation where you model every single voter in the battleground states , a big gotv operation, and push early voting so hard is to avoid or mitigate the situation of a massive polling error. Campaigns like Trump's have to rely on every single thing going their way while feeling around by pure instinct.

So it is possible there are polling errors, but that's why you have a cushion and so many ways to reach 270.


Yeah I know, I read that excellent Wired piece about the Democrat's and Hillary's data operation, etc., but with the stakes in the election so high, I won't be satisfied until every poll, even Rass and the LATimes/USC poll, every chicken bone, tea leaf, fortune teller, prognosticator, witch doctor, Mexican brujo or whatever, has Hillary on top.
 

kevin1025

Banned
I'm beginning, just now, starting to think that most Trump supporters (and even his campaign) are really beginning to set themselves up for failure, both consciously and unconsciously.

What I mean is, their paranoia and belief in every lie about Hillary and in everything Trump says was frightening me because they seemed motivated to actually act and vote, and was maybe even convincing some in the general electorate (nevermind that they themselves are already a too large chunk of the voting population), but now, they are all just hurting their chances by believing that everything and everyone are against them, that they are already losing because it's rigged, that polls are lying and that they don't need anyone's help in winning, just like Trump says.

Ugh, I wish the number of undecideds and support for Johnson and Stein wasn't so high. Despite the arguments against Nate Silver's model (which I also agree with, mostly) I would sleep a lot better if there weren't so many of those undecideds and third party voters out there, enough to tip the election in an event of a massive polling error.

What happened in Michigan during the primaries can't happen in the general, it just can't...

My concern is, where do they go once the election is over? They have been given safe spaces and an outlet to be horrible in public... what do they do once that's taken away?
 

SexyFish

Banned
Ugh, I wish the number of undecideds and support for Johnson and Stein wasn't so high. Despite the arguments against Nate Silver's model (which I also agree with, mostly) I would sleep a lot better if there weren't so many of those undecideds and third party voters out there, enough to tip the election in an event of a massive polling error.

My dear child, please, believe in the word of Wang.

Currently, undecideds and Johnson/Stein supporters constitute about 14% of voters. Drew Linzer has pointed out that undecideds/minor party supporters are unusually high this year, about 6% ahead of 2008 and 2012. This is a legitimate source of uncertainty about the eventual outcome. However, there is information about how these voters will eventually fall.

Undecided voters usually break somewhat evenly (sorry, 2004 Sam!). Data from SurveyMonkey suggests that Johnson supporters break about evenly between Clinton and Trump, while Stein supporters tilt strongly toward Clinton. This is consistent with many state polls that show Clinton doing the same or slightly better when the matchup is Clinton/Trump compared with Clinton/Trump/Johnson/Stein. So the net expected effect is, on average, slightly toward Clinton*.
 
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