Wafflecakes
Member
I doubt Iowa will go red. They thrive on being obtuse and in the center of political discussion. Same with New Hampshire.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black
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I doubt Iowa will go red. They thrive on being obtuse and in the center of political discussion. Same with New Hampshire.
Wafflecakes
Member
DP:/
I don't think either party will gain a perpetual white house hold.
There is way too much of a "throw the bums out" sentiment when one party has been in power too long. A large chunk of voters will vote against the incumbent party for no better reason than they think the party has been in charge for too long.
I don't think either party will gain a perpetual white house hold.
There is way too much of a "throw the bums out" sentiment when one party has been in power too long. A large chunk of voters will vote against the incumbent party for no better reason than they think the party has been in charge for too long.
BronzeWolf
Banned
Lol, he probably is a sonambule HBot
TestOfTide
Banned
The most we can do with Gerrymandering through SCOTUS is have the blatant shit struck down and MAYBE force a nonpartisan commission to handle redistricting for the blatant offenders.
CA, TX, FL, NY is 1/3 of the US population. If one party controlled all of those EC votes, it would be done before it started every 4 years.
SlickShoesRUCrazy
Member
Lol.
Nothing suspicious there at all...all a coincidence that the camera cut off and he fell asleep.
Chezzymann
Member
Yeah, i guess that factor will make it very hard for clinton to be re elected if shes president. Expecially if they get a republican who has decent favorable ratings running aginst her.
Wafflecakes
Member
Dems took the smart route. Minority voters are obviously the future of the country. They are set up right now to make this a real possibility in the future.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump's utter disdain for the future of the planet has gotten zero seconds of play in the media and that's a bad sign for the future of the planet.
Trump is actively hostile towards stopping global warming and that's just so impressive.
Trump is actively hostile towards stopping global warming and that's just so impressive.
He's also, you know, going to be irrelevant pertaining to that field in 48 hours. I think the planet can mange two more days.
Chezzymann
Member
Wafflecakes
Member
I feel like Global Warming has really fallen off as a key issue for undecided voters. Those who care are already democrats.
It needs to change, but I am not sure how.
A Link to the Past
Banned
Was there an estimate given to how many emails are believed to have been duplicates in this situation?
Already Torn
Banned
That's the entire Republican Party. All of the moderate Republicans are still pieces of shit when it comes to stuff like this. I remember at the primary debates one of Kasich's "Let's stop fighting" jokes was "gee wiz folks, can you believe the Democrats waste time talking about global warming in their debates when we have ISIS knocking on our door? 😂😂😂"
I'm glad they're dying out.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
I mean, the fact that no one is covering that one presidential candidate wants to cook the planet implies that no one in America cares about it.
And that's a terrible sign.
Why is New Mexico red...?
Alaska will also be blue or a swing state by then.
Minnesota is Canada so I doubt it will fall either
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
I think the biggest hope for Iowa is that it's red because it just really hates Hillary and always has, but I think it's probably gone except for the occasional senate seat we can snatch from it like Missouri. Ohio a little less so but probably still out of reach after this election.
MN/WI/MI I haven't seen any real evidence of trending red aside from some bad midterm performances. I think it's worth panicking about one of them if they actually flip in a presidential year, but they'll probably have six Democrats in the senate after this election is over and hopefully they'll get their act together and regain the governors in 2018.
Future election in 2032
How on earth does New Mexico go red when Texas and Arizona go blue?
Poker Face
Member
NYCmetsfan
Banned
He literally could doom humanity and cause billions of deaths.
That's not really that far from reality. Sadly
Chezzymann
Member
I dont know how this stuff works man
Wafflecakes
Member
So is this Chelsea Clinton versus Donald Jr, or are we looking at a no-term-limits dystopia where an immortal Hillary cyborg is facing off against Cybertrump?Future election in 2032
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Minnesota is super liberal, guys.
A Link to the Past
Banned
I think that even if the GOP doubles down on the whiter states, Minnesota's too blue to be flipped.
Alaska is going to stay red as long as more people from red states keep moving here. Even when it's people from other west coast states moving here it's the right leaning people tired of their left leaning states.
Chezzymann
Member
both
metalslimer
Member
And Colorado is only going to get bluer. I think republicans will be able to snag a victory in the awkward transition from us losing the midwestern states and some places like Georgia transitioning to a true swing state. I also don't think PA is going red that soon. It will continue to be a white whale.
Wafflecakes
Member
Maybe once upon a time, but it has been trending purple for 2 decades.
This got me
But crazy Bachmann
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Future population changes would increase electoral college victory.Future election in 2032
StormBrute
Member
Yeah, this one is more similar to what I was thinking. Chicago will keep Illinois blue no matter what.I want to play.
My 3032 Map:
The things to look at for future D strongholds are demographic shifts, college education, and big cities. That's assuming things continue on roughly the same course as they have been. Reality is I have no earthly idea what the parties are going to look like in 16 years.
Eventually there will be a policy pivot of some kind in 10-20 years. Republicans will revamp at some point.
Basileus777
Member
Party coalitions are likely to be way different in 2032, there's not a whole lot of point in projecting the current political climate that far into the future.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
One thing that is super hard to project is how Republicans deal with white millennials being either Mormon or not caring about religion.
Arrogant white dudes are kind of the backbone of the Republican party, but it's hard to get those people to vote for you when they think religion is a joke and your party's candidates claim that God personally told them to run for president.
On the other hand, the mountain west is exploding in population because Mormons have a lot of kids and Mormon millennials are really religious so the GOP can't stray too far. And, of course, the GOP has shown a lot of bigotry towards Mormon in the last year and lost a lot of goodwill with the group.
Arrogant white dudes are kind of the backbone of the Republican party, but it's hard to get those people to vote for you when they think religion is a joke and your party's candidates claim that God personally told them to run for president.
On the other hand, the mountain west is exploding in population because Mormons have a lot of kids and Mormon millennials are really religious so the GOP can't stray too far. And, of course, the GOP has shown a lot of bigotry towards Mormon in the last year and lost a lot of goodwill with the group.
Chezzymann
Member
Wait so it would total more than 538? Will nate have to change his sites name?
Wafflecakes
Member
Wouldn't it stay about equal as the Northeast continues to hemorrhage electoral votes?
A Link to the Past
Banned
Yes, rural MN has a lot of voters and there is a conservative element in MN, more so than in California for instance. Ultimately however, Republicans in the state struggle to be competitive in major state races. Minnesota to go red would be many a trial and tribulation for the GOP.
Wafflecakes
Member
Yeah. I think it will stay blue for a few more cycles.
I could see it being very competitive in 20 years though.
538 doesn't change but the allocation in each state does.
sazzy
Member
Already Torn
Banned
They kicked off their revamp this year 🐸
A Link to the Past
Banned
This is what I expect would happen if GOP refocused efforts to the Midwest Strategy:
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
There's like zero evidence of this. It stayed blue when Democrats got killed in the midterms! Obama won it by 10 points in 2008 and 7.7 in 2012. It has a prosperous urban center that attracts young urban liberal professionals and one of the most competent state parties.
Actually, Minnesota's rural areas are among the very few Democrats still win thanks to the DFL machine. It's the suburbs that provide most of the GOP vote there.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
Mostly Midwest and PA going south really only NY can lose a lot on that map since it assumes Midwest goes red
Biggest-Geek-Ever
Member
The ice caps have melted map
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
They're re-polling NC. I don't think Cohn had much faith in their +7 poll.
Wafflecakes
Member
I agree.
For all we know the democratic and republican party could be unrecognizable in 20 years.
A Link to the Past
Banned
The ice caps have melted map
That map would be pretty complicated; for instance, if all of TX is wiped out, it should be assumed that Nevada, Arizona, and the Northeast would be gone too.
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