Yup. At this point, I'm operating under the assumption that Reid's machine and major turnout so far in Nevada will deliver the seat to Masto.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black
- Thread starter Y2Kev
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Aaron Strife
Banned
I think Nevada's a pretty done deal at this point.
I also think there's an argument to be made for each of Bayh, Kander or Ross to win. I predict we get two of them.
TheCochese
Banned
Since the modern court of 9 was settled, the record is 391 days. Since the courts' inception, the record is 841 days.
What does gerrymandering have to do with the Senate?
Wafflecakes
Member
Is the 5 minute Hillary ad going to be shown in its entirety on TV at some point?
If Masto keeps NV for the 46th seat, who are you seeing as the likely 47-49 before Hassan's 50th? Feingold, Duckworth...McGinty?
Vestal
Junior Member
WE WILL DELIVER "DEPLORABLE" FLORIDA FOR THE QUEEEEEN!!!
MetalGearZed
Member
😂😂😂
Astaleview
Banned
The Trump "hidden vote" is up his ass.
Bonen no Max'd
Banned
McGinty's polled pretty consistently with a small but consistent lead over the election, and she's in a blue state that's being contested. She's not quite as safe as Feingold or Duckworth but it's pretty safe to assume she'll make it.
At her acceptance speech party.
GregLombardi
Member
In 15 minutes, EST:
User 463088
Banned
I'm a gay, and I'll speak for everyone. Gay men love strong women. Women who get knocked down and get the fuck up, dust themselves off and say fuck you, you shoulda hit me harder--Liza, Judy, Cher, Tammy Faye. Women who do what they want, when they want, how they want, and everyone else can get in line or get out the way. We love those nasty women who refuse to accept a heteronormative argument for following the status quo. WERK FUCK QUEEN YASSSSS.
Where did you get 250k from? We went into election day in 2012 with an 85k vote lead. Perhaps I have the numbers wrong, but I do not believe we had a 250k vote lead. Republicans would have had to win election day by double digits to overcome that. And we know they didn't. If you have a link on that, I'd love to take a look, because I may be 100% wrong.
Carpe Carnim
Member
This isn't exactly right. FL has 5 major media markets, all of which are expensive as fuck. Murphy has a name recognition of between 30-35%. To bring that number up to just 50%, would have meant spending millions of dollars that could/should be used in other, less expensive races.
Murphy was always going to live or die by his own accord, but he's lucky that FL is a "must win" from Clinton's perspective, because it shuts off nearly all of Trump's realistic-win scenarios. Inatead of dropping a bunch of cash for ads noone would care about, they sent that cash to Kander and a handful of other downballot races; plus he's had Clinton, Obama and every other political and celebrity surrogate absolutely beating the bushes to find every EV they could muster.
Murphy would have wasted cash, but is getting more campaign firepower than any single Senate candidate in the entire nation. Have faith
VendettaRed07
Member
davepoobond
you can't put a price on sparks
is there any evidence that the comey snafu actually depressed early voting?
That's what I'm guessing. McGinty looks like she was pulling slightly ahead, and the GOTV operation in Philly should help. Feingold is a done deal. And the machine in Wisconsin is pretty solid.
I'm not relaxed completely, but New Hampshire breaking for Hassan is something that'd make me feel verrrrry good about our chances.
TheCochese
Banned
Anyone see the supposed pic of Comey's house with the Trump sign? No idea if it's real or not.
shadowsdarknes
Member
I just read that whole article. Wow it's like night and day.
The Trump campaign just seemed annoyed with the whole interview and completely uninterested in utilizing NASA.
The Clinton camp practically geeked out in that interview. It dove into specifics.
Trump was more concerned with how we can dump more money into the military.
You want to make America great again? Let's fucking start by investing in NASA.
sazzy
Member
Here's a hot take:
We know that the majority of elected Republicans are, at least privately, do not like the direction their party is taking, but are too afraid to come out and say it.
So Hillary is not only fighting the Democrats' fight against Donald; she's also fighting the Republicans' fight for them.
We know that the majority of elected Republicans are, at least privately, do not like the direction their party is taking, but are too afraid to come out and say it.
So Hillary is not only fighting the Democrats' fight against Donald; she's also fighting the Republicans' fight for them.
Not talking about the Senate. Just in general.
Wafflecakes
Member
Good.
I am sitting here at my PC with tears streaming down my face from the video. Sooo good.
#StrongerTogether
ShironRedshift
Member
Bisexual here, but fully agree. She's amazing. She's put up with so much nonsense, but she doesn't let any of it stop her, and she just keeps going and going and going no matter what people say about her or who tries to stand in her way. Can't help but love and be totally amazed and inspired by that.
VendettaRed07
Member
While I obviously don't care who wins as long as we get the numbers needed.. It would be almost criminal if Kander lost despite running the best campaign out of anyone and other campaigns stumble across the finish line after nearly throwing away what should have been easily winnable races.
CNN earlier was talking about how it brought their polls and estimates closer to Horse Race Town, but in a real world sense, I am not quite sure.
Murphy was literally the best candidate out there. Maybe the DNC should help the inept FL section of the party get some candidates worth a damn. This is why I wanted Debbie gone.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
I mean, he pulled to within a point in a couple of polls.
Yeah, I think he is. Black folks and Puerto Ricans and younger Cubans aren't ticket-splitting to help him.
ShironRedshift
Member
Definitely. Really hoping he manages to pull it off, not just because of the numbers but because he deserves it.
Chezzymann
Member
Guys we should just refer to clinton as President Clinton now. Its gonna happen, why wait?
Okay I'll start. President Clinton needs a senate majority. I hope it happens!
Okay I'll start. President Clinton needs a senate majority. I hope it happens!
The Florida Democratic Party sucks. It's fucking god awful and getting worse every year.
mentallyinept
Banned
Man this broke me.
The stress of this election has been crushing. So much worse than any previous campaign I can remember.
When that girl started crying because she was afraid that Trump was going to deport her family, I lost it.
I'm so ready move *forward* and stop feeling this unending dread every day.
They're tied to their crazy ass base. Unless they can figure out how to jettison them from the party, any moderate will get primaried for a crazier candidate. They are pretty fucked. They can't live without their base and their base will cause them to be increasingly irrelevant.
VendettaRed07
Member
I do not co-sign this.
Bisexual here, but fully agree. She's amazing. She's put up with so much nonsense, but she doesn't let any of it stop her, and she just keeps going and going and going no matter what people say about her or who tries to stand in her way. Can't help but love and be totally amazed and inspired by that.
Heterosexual here and I feel like I can speak for all straight white people when I say that racism ended with og star trek and on Wednesday the GOP will begin reforming itself into a fiscally conservative party of rational thought that believes in individual liberty and the holistic good of the nation.
http://swampland.time.com/2012/11/05/81541/
i guess that was raw votes and not an estimation of the total lead. however if hillary is currently winning the miami-dade vote by the same margins obama won the county with, then she has a 155k lead right now out of 777k votes. of course since republicans will vote more on election day, the total will more likely even out to the margins that obama won by, meaning her lead percentage is probably higher than the 20-point split it wound up at four years ago.
VendettaRed07
Member
Definitely. I want him in the Senate badly. He's such a great guy, not only can he win this race but he can potentially occupy that seat for a long time. Would be amazing long term.
Pretty good. For what it's worth, their final 2012 number was O+3 when he won it by about 5.5.
Stinkles smoked too much hopium.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
McGinty's safer than Feingold at this point. Ron Johnson caught up to Feingold in a few polls, but I don't think McGinty's trailed in a poll in a long time.
Comey is not a registered republican currently. He doesn't like the party much and most likely trump to.
Wafflecakes
Member
I still cannot make myself say it. Don't want to ruin it.
Particle Physicist
between a quark and a baryon
Has CNN hired her yet? She is on there multiple times a day every day. It's crazy
Wafflecakes
Member
Also, I will rage soooooo hard at the universe if Hillary becomes President but we don't take the Senate.
The Future 45 PAC ads are ridiculous.
I'm probably really late to this but... jesus lol..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GHth-bt0Qs
WHO IS THIS TRYING TO APPEAL TO
Edit: Oh wow, the song was originally done at the end of last year. No wonder I felt like this wasn't the first song made against Hillary.
I'm probably really late to this but... jesus lol..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5GHth-bt0Qs
WHO IS THIS TRYING TO APPEAL TO
Edit: Oh wow, the song was originally done at the end of last year. No wonder I felt like this wasn't the first song made against Hillary.
2012 WI Senate race last 7 polls margin for Baldwin
*won by 5.5
+3
+2
+1
+3
+1
Tied
-3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Wisconsin,_2012
*won by 5.5
+3
+2
+1
+3
+1
Tied
-3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Wisconsin,_2012
TheCochese
Banned
Yeah, after a bit I realized that anyone could put that sign where it was.
BronzeWolf
Banned
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