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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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Voter disenfranchisement is only going to get worse before it gets better. If Voter ID made the difference in WI (which it may very well have given the close margin), you can bet that Republicans are going to be expanding it across the country as fast and as extensively as possible. Expect more cuts to polling locations and hours as well.
 

Grexeno

Member
I'm legitimately wondering if polling can even continue to be a thing.

Nobody wants to answer phone calls.

No one has landline phones anymore.

Online is obviously shot.

How the fuck do you even poll now.
 
Teachout lost in New York of all places. Yea it was upstate but she still ran far behind Clinton and Schumer here.

Progressive populism ran behind Clinton in pretty much every case it was tried this cycle. I'm not sure that's the way to go.

That's one of my takeaways too. I'm just not sure.
 

jtb

Banned
still in shock.

need to see the autopsy, but it looks like Mook's data operation vastly misread the electoral college landscape.

hindsight is 20/20, but it seems so obvious that her message of unity was a terrible fit for the candidate -- the most partisan figure in politics of the past 30 years, basically. should've co-opted Warren's message of "fighting for fairness" or whatever.

but of the plausible scenarios, this is clearly the worst outcome for dems. sobering.

Teachout lost in New York of all places. Yea it was upstate but she still ran far behind Clinton and Schumer here.

Progressive populism ran behind Clinton in pretty much every case it was tried this cycle. I'm not sure that's the way to go.

I agree with your thesis -- but you can easily flip that argument. progressivism ran behind clinton because progressives didn't turn out in the first place... the hidden white voter theory... but for dems!
 

bplewis24

Neo Member
Getting a little fed up with all of the rhetoric today about the white working class vote and how trump appealed to them with a populist message (and the implication that that is what set him apart). Look at his economic advisers for christ's sake. It's a who's who of wall street guys, hedge fund managers and bankers, with some supply-siders thrown in for good measure:

Tom Barrack, Colony Capital
Andy Beal, Beal Bank
Stephen Calk, Federal Savings Bank
Dan DiMicco, former CEO of Nucor
Steve Feinberg, Cerberus Capital Management
Dan Kowalski, deputy policy adviser for the Trump campaign
Howard Lorber, Vector Group
David Malpass, Encima Global
Steven Mnuchin, Dune Capital
Stephen Moore, Heritage Foundation
Peter Navarro, University of California Irvine
John Paulson, Paulson & Co.
Steve Roth, Vornado Realty

Yeah, I'm sure that's exactly what all of those former union-labor democrats were thinking about when they voted Trump.
 

pigeon

Banned
pigeon, he is

But he got less votes than diet racism (Romney)

brennan center said:
In 2016, 14 states will have new voting restrictions in place for the first time in a presidential election. The new laws range from strict photo ID requirements to early voting cutbacks to registration restrictions.

Those 14 states are: Alabama, Arizona, Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, and Wisconsin.

http://www.brennancenter.org/voting-restrictions-first-time-2016
 
Teachout lost in New York of all places. Yea it was upstate but she still ran far behind Clinton and Schumer here.

Progressive populism ran behind Clinton in pretty much every case it was tried this cycle. I'm not sure that's the way to go.

And yet the "Bernie would've won!" comments are gonna be legion for the next few years.

The HRC campaign / Democrats ignoring the midwest states is a generational strategic blunder. Trump won the White House with fewer votes than Mitt Romney lost with; and midwestern D turnout is to blame.
 
What's up my bad hombres. It's the day after and there is no course of action left to us but to be strong for each other and sift through the rubble. I'm here for you,
 
We lose HARD for 2018, at best we get the presidency in 2020 and accomplish nothing against a stacked GOP senate, congress, supreme court and governorship.

Accelerationism is a crock, you can't push for change when every branch of government on every level is fundamentally opposed to it.

I don't doubt it and I'm aware that the US government is specifically designed against rapid change (assuming that it what you were referring to).

But the Democratic party needs a major and complete reinvention. Even if it ended up being a turnout issue, we can't just rely on electing some charismatic person to the presidency every four years. There's so much that can be done, and they've failed spectacularly. A good start would be trying to be competitive everywhere. Look at that post a while back about a 37-year old Vietnamese American winning a congressional seat from a dude that's been there for 23 goddamn years. It's why they better find something for Kander to do for the next few years until he can either run in 2020 or hope for a Dem wave into the MO governorship (unlikely).

Part of the reason seeing so many people say they'll just move is a concern. If all the Dems in the country are located in smaller geographic areas then the US electoral system will just fuck us over at every level other than president. And I'm in fucking Missouri, which is almost guaranteed to become even worse unless Greitens turns out not to be completely terrible.
 

sazzy

Member
Election summary:

xKY1Av.png
 
Also, progressive populism didn't have a good night either. Ross, Feingold, Teachout all lost. Not sure if that's the answer either.

Progressive populism behind dems took a hit because the base was not happy with Hillary. And most of them got behind her. Story might have been different had they attached themselves to a different nominee. People didn't buy that they would make things different when supporting Hillary. We saw people ditch progressives like flies with anyone she touched.
 

bplewis24

Neo Member
Also, progressive populism didn't have a good night either. Ross, Feingold, Teachout all lost. Not sure if that's the answer either.

Here in California, progressive populism was on the ballot in several initiatives, and nearly all of them passed (death penalty repeal didn't, along with a prescription drug pricing law).

I know, it's California, which doesn't mean much of anything for the rest of the country...but take it for whatever it's worth.
 

pigeon

Banned
Progressive populism behind dems took a hit because the base was not happy with Hillary. And most of them got behind her. Story might have been different had they attached themselves to a different nominee. People didn't buy that they would make things different when supporting Hillary. We saw people ditch progressives like flies with anyone she touched.

"A real progressive populist would have won!"
"Progressive populists lost all over the country."
"Well, they too would have won if we had run a real progressive populist!"

Thanks white males, tell me more about Bernie Sanders
 

Boke1879

Member
What's up my bad hombres. It's the day after and there is no course of action left to us but to be strong for each other and sift through the rubble. I'm here for you,

We'll get through this. One thing about this nation so far is that it's always endured.

I'm not even scared or mad. Just nervous and just a deep sense of nothingness. I really don't know what happens next year.
 

jtb

Banned
And yet the "Bernie would've won!" comments are gonna be legion for the next few years.

The HRC campaign / Democrats ignoring the midwest states is a generational strategic blunder. Trump won the White House with fewer votes than Mitt Romney lost with; and midwestern D turnout is to blame.

Bernie was the wrong candidate.

Warren or Biden could (won't say would) have been the right candidate. Bernie's message was too sanctimonious, old-left progressivsim -- Warren's is the right message for the electorate. We deserve better vs. we'll fight for better. She could marry progressivism with economic populism.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Progressive populism behind dems took a hit because the base was not happy with Hillary. And most of them got behind her. Story might have been different had they attached themselves to a different nominee. People didn't buy that they would make things different when supporting Hillary. We saw people ditch progressives like flies with anyone she touched.

But, why did they get less votes than Hillary?

"A real progressive populist would have won!"
"Progressive populists lost all over the country."
"Well, they too would have won if we had run a real progressive populist!"

Thanks white males, tell me more about Bernie Sanders

or this, lol.
 

mackaveli

Member
Voter disenfranchisement is only going to get worse before it gets better. If Voter ID made the difference in WI (which it may very well have given the close margin), you can bet that Republicans are going to be expanding it across the country as fast and as extensively as possible. Expect more cuts to polling locations and hours as well.

I know it sounds like a sore loser mentality but is this pretty much what happened this year? Turnout was lower on democrat side. I know you can say it was because Clinton is unlikable etc., and it is most likely a combination of a lot of factors but I really want to know how the number of polling places, and if it was harder to vote now in certain states compared to 2012.
 

bplewis24

Neo Member
And yet the "Bernie would've won!" comments are gonna be legion for the next few years.

The HRC campaign / Democrats ignoring the midwest states is a generational strategic blunder. Trump won the White House with fewer votes than Mitt Romney lost with; and midwestern D turnout is to blame.

You have to at least admit that Bernie would have in all likelihood fared better in the midwest, which you rightly point out swung this election. The "Bernie would've won" talk, while not necessarily productive, is arguable at worst.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I agree with your thesis -- but you can easily flip that argument. progressivism ran behind clinton because progressives didn't turn out in the first place... the hidden white voter theory... but for dems!

Except there's literally no proof of that at all. These people gave them what they supposedly wanted and still lost. I mean Teachout lost in NY. If progressive populism was going to win anywhere it would have been here, in a state that the Dems carried handily.

Any chance of Michelle in 2020?

No, but I seriously think Biden's going to give it a shot. Right now he's pretty much the only one who might be able to get all those Obama voters out.
 
Any chance of Michelle in 2020?

Zero. She wants nothing to do with politics.

The Dems have no one in 2020 who can inspire its base AND win enough votes from others.

And on the topic of moving to Michigan: don't do it. Or Ohio. I'm fleeing the Buckeye State as soon as I can find work elsewhere. That's been the plan for a while, but it's been made abundantly clear my kind (read as: not a hard right white Christian Republican) is not wanted here.
 
Getting a little fed up with all of the rhetoric today about the white working class vote and how trump appealed to them with a populist message (and the implication that that is what set him apart). Look at his economic advisers for christ's sake. It's a who's who of wall street guys, hedge fund managers and bankers, with some supply-siders thrown in for good measure:

Tom Barrack, Colony Capital
Andy Beal, Beal Bank
Stephen Calk, Federal Savings Bank
Dan DiMicco, former CEO of Nucor
Steve Feinberg, Cerberus Capital Management
Dan Kowalski, deputy policy adviser for the Trump campaign
Howard Lorber, Vector Group
David Malpass, Encima Global
Steven Mnuchin, Dune Capital
Stephen Moore, Heritage Foundation
Peter Navarro, University of California Irvine
John Paulson, Paulson & Co.
Steve Roth, Vornado Realty

Yeah, I'm sure that's exactly what all of those former union-labor democrats were thinking about when they voted Trump.

You are missing the point. I'll try to give you a visual.

st-cyrils-detroit1.jpg


and

#MAGA

These people don't give a shit about those guys nor have any idea of who they are or what they stand for and they don't care cause their circumstances and their reality is different than yours.
 

jbug617

Banned
Hassan beat Ayotte

It feels bad man. Hopefully Trump doesn't fuck the country over that much and we can make some noise in 2018.
 

GutsOfThor

Member
So who have we lost in terms of posters here? I'm glad many of you are still here but it sucks that we lost some excellent posters.
 

bplewis24

Neo Member
Bernie was the wrong candidate.

Warren or Biden could (won't say would) have been the right candidate. Bernie's message was too sanctimonious, old-left progressivsim -- Warren's is the right message for the electorate. We deserve better vs. we'll fight for better. She could marry progressivism with economic populism.

Umm, they have virtually the same message.
 
"A real progressive populist would have won!"
"Progressive populists lost all over the country."
"Well, they too would have won if we had run a real progressive populist!"

Thanks white males, tell me more about Bernie Sanders

Yeah, and they ran behind Hillary.
 

Diablos

Member
Electoral College needs to die. When it basically fails to elect the person the majority of voters want in two elections since the year 2000, enough is enough.

I did not ever think the EC would come back to bite us in the ass again. Not this soon.

This is one of the worst days I've had in a long time. I am legit worried for this country's future.
 
"A real progressive populist would have won!"
"Progressive populists lost all over the country."
"Well, they too would have won if we had run a real progressive populist!"

Thanks white males, tell me more about Bernie Sanders

Well, it's the truth. As uncomfortable as it is, the reality is that whites decided this election. Trump appealed to the ugly side, Clinton...well, she did something I guess?
 
"A real progressive populist would have won!"
"Progressive populists lost all over the country."
"Well, they too would have won if we had run a real progressive populist!"

Thanks white males, tell me more about Bernie Sanders

Party reflects the nominee. She drew 7 million fewer voters than Obama 4 years ago.

It didn't need to be Bernie Sanders, but someone who did not completely and totally fail with a demographic she needed to win as badly as she did.
 
Well, it's the truth. As uncomfortable as it is, the reality is that whites decided this election. Trump appealed to the ugly side, Clinton...well, she did something I guess?

But the progressives did even worse than Hillary did, so I'm not sure if it's an easy answer. If, say, Feingold/Ross/Teachout all ran far ahead of Hillary, I think there would be more of an argument there.
 
You have to at least admit that Bernie would have in all likelihood fared better in the midwest, which you rightly point out swung this election. The "Bernie would've won" talk, while not necessarily productive, is arguable at worst.

That's what I'm struggling with today. Was Hillary always gonna lose the Midwest, or was it just the biggest strategic blunder since Giuliani decided to not campaign until Florida in 2008? We might never know.

I still don't think Bernie was a good candidate either; but at this point, everything I thought was true is completely wrong.

Also, not to bedwet even more, I just looked at the 2018 Senate races and... fuck. Trump's gonna have a Republican government through 2020, isn't he? He would need to fuck up so bigleague that the Democrats take the house somehow.
 

Bowdz

Member
More than anything else, I'm just mad at myself for becoming so absorbed in a bubble of group think and failing to imagine what could possibly happen. It is a lesson that has constantly hit home and yet, here I am, not expanding my worldview and ignoring what actually could happen. My reality has been shattered and it is hard to know where to start by rebuilding it.
 
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