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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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TyrantII

Member
I love me some Bernie, but if all the Democrats learn from last nights historic upset, and the total loss of the Midwest Firewall (likely forever), is that they should have gone with the Jew from Vermont... They won't win another election in our lifetime.

Trump took the union voters with some dark tactics, on the back of the GOP echo chamber, for the party that implemented the terrible policies he railed against. And they LOVED him for it.

This is a much bigger issue. Bernie at the top isn't going to change their minds about urban centric Dem approach. There's going to be a lot to pick through in the fallout debriefing.
 

Grief.exe

Member
All things the same, Bernie likely wins the election. The margins were so slim that I think the advantages Bernie brings to the table push this election over the edge.

Though the discussion is ultimately arbitrary. Bernie got destroyed in the primaries, and, no, the DNC didn't do anything to measurably swing that result.

The most important point is Bernie wouldn't be under FBI investigation. As a result, no last minute Comey letter to swing the election. Whether or not I deem that investigation to be legitimate is irrelevant at this point.

White vote gets split more favorably to Democrats, particularly uneducated whites.
Millennials have more favorable numbers, equal to or exceeding Obama 2012 turnout.
African American turnout likely a wash.
Hispanics still have the same turnout to oppose Trump.
 

Dierce

Member
Here is my prediction. republicans will not pass any of the idiotic anti-trade legislation that trump wants but they will certainly go against minorities. They will go hard on deportations and pass laws like Louisiana's bullshit 'blue-lives matter bill' that will make things worse for African Americans in this country will giving white people the perception of 'lawfulness.'

And you know why this is? It will appeal to the base by targeting people who wouldn't or can't vote for them in the first place while keeping to corporatists and wall street content.
 

Crocodile

Member
Yeah not going to lie, I live in a Midwestern state right now but I'll probably be looking for a new job in about a year and if I can run to a safe Blue State I'm probably doing so!
 
I'm really fucking glad I live in MA, put it that way. They'd still need to make some major strides in order to be able to feasibly pass a constitutional amendment killing gay marriage in states that had passed it before the supreme court ruling.

So yeah, if you must flee to the west coast or the north east to feel safe.

Flee.
 

sazzy

Member
Michael Moore posted this on his FB:

Morning After To-Do List:

1. Take over the Democratic Party and return it to the people. They have failed us miserably.

2. Fire all pundits, predictors, pollsters and anyone else in the media who had a narrative they wouldn't let go of and refused to listen to or acknowledge what was really going on. Those same bloviators will now tell us we must "heal the divide" and "come together." They will pull more hooey like that out of their ass in the days to come. Turn them off.

3. Any Democratic member of Congress who didn't wake up this morning ready to fight, resist and obstruct in the way Republicans did against President Obama every day for eight full years must step out of the way and let those of us who know the score lead the way in stopping the meanness and the madness that's about to begin.

4. Everyone must stop saying they are "stunned" and "shocked". What you mean to say is that you were in a bubble and weren't paying attention to your fellow Americans and their despair. YEARS of being neglected by both parties, the anger and the need for revenge against the system only grew. Along came a TV star they liked whose plan was to destroy both parties and tell them all "You're fired!" Trump's victory is no surprise. He was never a joke. Treating him as one only strengthened him. He is both a creature and a creation of the media and the media will never own that.

5. You must say this sentence to everyone you meet today: "HILLARY CLINTON WON THE POPULAR VOTE!" The MAJORITY of our fellow Americans preferred Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump. Period. Fact. If you woke up this morning thinking you live in an effed-up country, you don't. The majority of your fellow Americans wanted Hillary, not Trump. The only reason he's president is because of an arcane, insane 18th-century idea called the Electoral College. Until we change that, we'll continue to have presidents we didn't elect and didn't want. You live in a country where a majority of its citizens have said they believe there's climate change, they believe women should be paid the same as men, they want a debt-free college education, they don't want us invading countries, they want a raise in the minimum wage and they want a single-payer true universal health care system. None of that has changed. We live in a country where the majority agree with the "liberal" position. We just lack the liberal leadership to make that happen (see: #1 above).

Let's try to get this all done by noon today.

-- Michael Moore
 

AniHawk

Member
to be fair, if enough people come to california, it will start getting a shit load more electoral votes.

or we can just do away with the ec.
 
It's fucking depressing that accelerationism is some shit that I have to consider as a potential way out.

I will say this: I blame every so-called "liberal" that didn't vote for Hillary because of his or her own apathy. This was an eminently winnable election if even half of them gave a shit.

I'm also lucky to be here in a blue state, for what that's worth. I wish that every LGBTQ person or Muslim or whatever would move here, and not just to Seattle. Come to Kent, Tacoma, Vancouver, etc. Get us more EVs after the next Census so we don't have to rely on some of these other shitty states.

On the other hand, I'm considering moving to a U.S. territory, and I would be approved for express application for Canadian citizenship!
 
to be fair, if enough people come to california, it will start getting a shit load more electoral votes.

or we can just do away with the ec.

We can only do away with the EC once we get back the government. I haven't looked at any modelling to see if Trump would still have won if all the states split their EV's, or if we'd need to go to a straight majority, but I expect they will be done once all the vote is in.

How often do EV's get reevaluated anyways?
 
One of the biggest lessons I learned this year is that white people will say literally anything to protect other white people from being judged racist.

When Trump starts setting up camps I look forward to Plinko's posts about how camps are just really efficient and it proves that Americans really want cheaper housing.

There are racist Trump supporters.. And there are people who voted for Trump who might not have had another candidate connected with them on any level economically, or the frustration that both sides are feeling that Washington does not function correctly. The loss is on her, the democratic party, and even democrats who did not turn out because they didn't care enough because she didn't excite them or address their concerns either.

Brushing off and attacking people who are trying to make assessments as to how we got this election completely fucking wrong and to hopefully use learned lessons to avoid similar mistakes in the future, as white fragility or defending racism isn't going to get us anywhere..
 
Maybe you could move to Michigan. I guess you could work in a factory making plastic furniture.

I actually really considering a move to Michigan. They don't do a ton of manufacturing, but the auto guys still have a lot of engineers there.

Not so much now tho.
 

Kai Dracon

Writing a dinosaur space opera symphony
I had a big rant written up but instead I'll just say this.

America, you deserve what's coming to you. I'll be fine.

America is not a person who fucked up and got what was coming to them. It's over 300 million people. And the majority of them, as it turns out, didn't vote for this. Popular vote went to the other candidate. So this isn't even America's brexit.
 

mackaveli

Member
So did Trumps / Bannon strategy of trying to make this an ugly campaign and the debates into the gutter work and reduce turnout?

Republicans were going to show up regardless but did the above impact Democrats and independents from just not voting because of the shit show was on display?

How do you counter this strategy in the future? Even if we get a really well liked candidate how do we prevent this as trump will take anyone to his level. Clinton did her best I thought of you know they go low we go high. So should we do the opposite and have our own candidate get down in the mud and sling it back?

Would this increase democrat turnout? Because looking at it it seems that the Republican base is stuck at 60-63 million from the last 3 elections. So we should try and do everything to get turn out.

Also can Republicans since they control all three branches of government further suppress the vote going forward so we can never win again?

How easy would it be for them to make it harder to vote? Reduce polling places, get rid of early voting. etc.,?
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Yeah not going to lie, I live in a Midwestern state right now but I'll probably be looking for a new job in about a year and if I can run to a safe Blue State I'm probably doing so!

I'm moving to Chicago next week

I don't think I can stomach calling Wisconsin my home state anymore

I'm so ashamed
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I actually really considering a move to Michigan. They don't do a ton of manufacturing, but the auto guys still have a lot of engineers there.

Not so much now tho.

Don't move to Michigan. I lived there most of my life and the republicans are decimating that state. It's also surprisingly expensive to live there.
 

AniHawk

Member
one of the most upsetting results for me this election is californians voting to speed up the death penalty and not get rid of it.

i would like to have a repeal up to vote in 2018. also, i would like a prop changing the execution procedures so that the executioner will be a randomly selected resident of california as long as you voted not to repeal the death penalty.
 
It is easy to forget that Trump was a democrat for years, friends with the Clintons (probably still is starting today).

My hope is that he will surprise us. I would love to be wrong about him and one day be shocked to say that Donald Trump helped continue ushering out country into better territory, both socially and fiscally. Right now, I fear that by the end of the year, he will announce a cabinet full of old establishment and his voters will soon realize that they were all had.

My only hope is that he is so self centered and cares so much about his popularity numbers he will swing both ways on things
 

studyguy

Member
I probably sound like an accelerationist douchehole right now but I do wonder if these next few years will be what is needed to fix the party on a local/state level.

Obama was like a bandage covering up how fucked the party is/was. And it was obvious that everyone's solution was just to wait until old people died or demographics shifted.

We lose HARD for 2018, at best we get the presidency in 2020 and accomplish nothing against a stacked GOP senate, congress, supreme court and governorship.

Accelerationism is a crock, you can't push for change when every branch of government on every level is fundamentally opposed to it.
 

thefro

Member
We can only do away with the EC once we get back the government. I haven't looked at any modelling to see if Trump would still have won if all the states split their EV's, or if we'd need to go to a straight majority, but I expect they will be done once all the vote is in.

That's actually incorrect. Enough states just have to pass legislation (we've got 165 so far) saying they'll award their electoral votes to the winner of the popular vote.
 

Barzul

Member
We were saying some of this stuff throughout the election but HillaryGAF was shaming and ridiculing anyone that spoke out. It was crazy.

Dude are you happy? Is this the outcome you wanted? If not of those things are true then you've made your point. We get it HillGAF was arrogant and we'll own that. But most of us want to discuss the way forward.

Gloating? The Reps own the 3 wings of the government and you think I'm gloating?

Exactly to my point.

That's how your posts are coming across to me. It comes across at being smug in saying "I told you so". Feelings are raw right now, you know this.
 

Wilsongt

Member
One could hope that if Trump sucks they might try to primary him in 2020.

Nikki Haley/Tim Scott.

The biggest embarrasment Haley had committed so far is school funding in the Corridor of Shame and our abysmal roads.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
Also, progressive populism didn't have a good night either. Ross, Feingold, Teachout all lost. Not sure if that's the answer either.

Teachout lost in New York of all places. Yea it was upstate but she still ran far behind Clinton and Schumer here.

Progressive populism ran behind Clinton in pretty much every case it was tried this cycle. I'm not sure that's the way to go.
 
Teachout lost in New York of all places. Yea it was upstate but she still ran far behind Clinton and Schumer here.

Progressive populism ran behind Clinton in pretty much every case it was tried this cycle. I'm not sure that's the way to go.

And that's fucking scary.


The Overton window hasn't shifted.. it fucking teleported.
 
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