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PoliGAF 2016 |OT15| Orange is the New Black

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jtb

Banned
also not to be lost in the shuffle or anything, but jesus did Votecastr really blow it or what? lol

I found the NYTimes projection tools to be basically everything Votecastr was trumped up to be - and actually used raw vote totals instead of poll-based prognosticating. (Exits.... ew)
 
People care about personality and rhetoric, not substance. Nobody cared about real policies Trump proposed, they just liked the way he said everything was fucked up and that he would fix it by screwing over all the politicians.

The idea that democrats should court racists/bigots by abandoning minorities since they're only a small percentage of the population is disgusting by the way. Fuck gay people amiright, they're only like 2% of the population after all, who needs em? Let's repeal gay marriage to court back the religious democrats, winning elections is all that matters now I guess, who needs progress.
 
Does it even matter? His base didn't give a shit that he has been divorced twice, was accused of sexually assaulting/harassing 10+ women, and is involved in a civil child rape case, you think infidelity is going to phase them?

It'll be different now that he's there and there's no one for him to deflect to. If he can't control himself, for whatever its with or whatever it does, people will get tired of it. That is pretty much what just happened with Hillary (just fatigue, in a way)
 
So, back to the question of the whole popular vote thing. Which states should we be concentrating on to get that measure on the state law books of enough states to make up 270 electoral college votes?
Georgia, NC, safe blue Florida, Texas, Alaska. Keep Virginia and Nevada reliable blue.

The democrats have options. The GOP banked all of their red shifting states this election. We didn't win a single blue shifting state. Which means they're still there for the taking next time as pure gains.
 
So my room mate is a real piece of shit;

ALv1ob1.png


He also said I had no balls because I voted for Clinton, and that "I couldn't vote for her, not because I'm sexist, but because I think women can't make good leaders. They lack things like Charisma, Emotional Stamina, and Reliability." I called him a fucking idiot. Things were rough at my place last night.
 
Did we over-demonize Trump?

It doesn't seem to have scared people into voting against him, not in significant numbers. And it certainly did a hell of a job of lionizing him to his base. "Look at how much these people we hate hate him! He must be FANTASTIC."

I'm also curious if by leaning into the "Trump is the worst ever" (he is, don't get me wrong) thing too much, there weren't a fair few people who started to dismiss it as Godwinning.
 

Debirudog

Member
The idea that democrats should court racists/bigots by abandoning minorities since they're only a small percentage of the population is disgusting by the way. Fuck gay people amiright, they're only like 2% of the population after all, who needs em? Let's repeal gay marriage to court back the religious democrats, winning elections is all that matters now I guess, who needs progress.

were people really saying this? I hope not...
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
So my room mate is a real piece of shit;

ALv1ob1.png


He also said I had no balls because I voted for Clinton, and that "I couldn't vote for her, not because I'm sexist, but because I think women can't make good leaders. They lack things like Charisma, Emotional Stamina, and Reliability." I called him a fucking idiot. Things were rough at my place last night.

What he's described is literally sexism.
 

Vestal

Junior Member
Did we over-demonize Trump?

It doesn't seem to have scared people into voting against him, not in significant numbers. And it certainly did a hell of a job of lionizing him to his base. "Look at how much these people we hate hate him! He must be FANTASTIC."

I'm also curious if by leaning into the "Trump is the worst ever" (he is, don't get me wrong) thing too much, there weren't a fair few people who started to dismiss it as Godwinning.


We Over-Demonized Romney and McCain.. Trump is a product of that.
 
People care about personality and rhetoric, not substance. Nobody cared about real policies Trump proposed, they just liked the way he said everything was fucked up and that he would fix it by screwing over all the politicians.

The idea that democrats should court racists/bigots by abandoning minorities since they're only a small percentage of the population is disgusting by the way. Fuck gay people amiright, they're only like 2% of the population after all, who needs em? Let's repeal gay marriage to court back the religious democrats, winning elections is all that matters now I guess, who needs progress.
Nobody is saying this. We're trying to figure out how to win them back, without doing those things, which is why it's such a difficult puzzle to figure out
 

thefro

Member
So, back to the question of the whole popular vote thing. Which states should we be concentrating on to get that measure on the state law books of enough states to make up 270 electoral college votes?

New Mexico and Nevada would seem to be the next two logical places. Seems to have a lot of support in Arizona too.
 

jtb

Banned
Did we over-demonize Trump?

It doesn't seem to have scared people into voting against him, not in significant numbers. And it certainly did a hell of a job of lionizing him to his base. "Look at how much these people we hate hate him! He must be FANTASTIC."

I'm also curious if by leaning into the "Trump is the worst ever" (he is, don't get me wrong) thing too much, there weren't a fair few people who started to dismiss it as Godwinning.

Not sure I'd call if "over-demonizing."

It was the wrong message. Maybe the con-man message would have been better than the apocalyptic message, because the message ended up veering way too close to guilt by association. I think we only hit him where he was weak, when we really could have taken away where he was strong. The racism, the misogyny - for many, those are features, not bugs.
 

sith ewok

Member
TPM was enjoyable.

I'm staying out of the political talk right now because my head is spinning and my heart is broken and I just don't know what to think about a lot of things, but I'm backing you in on this one. TPM is a fun film and gets way too much flack.
 

Farmboy

Member
I know this whole thing is awful, but I can't not smile at the ridiculousness of Trump's painting being in the White House and there being a Trump Presidential Library in New York. And there being Trump museums, and schools named after Trump. And all of the seemingly minor things Presidents get just by being president that are utterly ridiculous for Trump.

Hadn'tn thought about the library. That is funny.
 
Hillbilly Elegy is not the reason Trump won the Rust Belt. This is a misdiagnosis.



No, the media failed in making clear that Trump was uniquely unqualified.

The colossal failure of the media in treating this like a regular election where both sides deserve a fair shake is damning, but I can't help but wonder if we leaned too hard on our own rhetoric. People seem to have rejected the idea that Trump could possibly be as bad as we described him as.

We Over-Demonized Romney and McCain.. Trump is a product of that.

This could definitely be a factor as well.
 
The stock market even denied me the satisfaction of at least being able to say that investors hate the idea of a President Trump.

This day has been one loss after another.
 
What he's described is literally sexism.

Oh he had a lot of good ones last night. When I asked what disqualified her he pointed out Bill Clinton cheating on her should disqualify her. When I said that was literally victim blaming he said I was wrong and needed to read a psychology book.

The stock market even denied me the satisfaction of at least being able to say that investors hate the idea of a President Trump.

This day has been one loss after another.

He's promised the most business-friendly environment in US History. Well, since the Roaring 20's, because that ended well.
 

Crocodile

Member
Did we over-demonize Trump?

It doesn't seem to have scared people into voting against him, not in significant numbers. And it certainly did a hell of a job of lionizing him to his base. "Look at how much these people we hate hate him! He must be FANTASTIC."

I'm also curious if by leaning into the "Trump is the worst ever" (he is, don't get me wrong) thing too much, there weren't a fair few people who started to dismiss it as Godwinning.

I mean the man said, with a straight face, that he wanted to ban half my family from the country - a country built partially on the concept of religious freedom. I mean how fucking fucked is that? With regards to the Khan family, even fucking Russia thought Trump's comments were disqualifying. RUSSIA!

Like if you can "see past that" I dunno what to tell you. Clinton ads pretty much all used Trump's own words against him. There wasn't any hyperbole.

It's fucking everything goes now in politics :/

Fuck you establishment Republicans who stood by this because you were power hungry.
 
We Over-Demonized Romney and McCain.. Trump is a product of that.

Yes. We absolutely did.

Looking back at stuff and the "gafs" both of them had that were made into a big deal was absolutely ridiculous. And barely even comparable to what we have now. Like there's nothing Romney or McCain said or did that I can remember that barely even registers with me anymore.

Not that neither candidate did not do or say things that people should have been outraged by, or what have you.. But we reached for nonsense at times.
 

Setsuna

Member
As someone who survives on Social Security and Medicaid. I NEED someone to tell me if i'll survive while living in New Jersey until 2020?
 
Because people aren't voting for the Republican ideology. The Republican ideology was Jeb Bush; he got beat. They're voting for the people who talk to them. The Democrats talk to black people and to educated voters, and they get their votes. Trump talked to white people without college degrees, and he got their votes. The Democrats never bothered talking to white people without college degrees, Trump never talked to black people and educated voters. So you get self-reinforcing echo chambers - that's the hyperpolarization. You're not really Republican any more because you believe in a rightwing ideology - like, rightwing is free markets and all that jazz. That's not what Trump was about at all - he's more anti-free market than Clinton was, at least in the respects important to his voters (anti-globalization). You're Republican because you identify with a particular group or community and your group or community votes Republican because the Republicans talk to it.

But where are Democrats winning doing what you're saying? Kansas. Kentucky. Dems couldn't win or hold governor there. They only win in la cuz of vitters scandal.

I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just not sure if anything matters more than the r by the name. I want contrary evidence. Shit I need it just to feel ever so slightly better.
 

jtb

Banned
Obama took Romney's biggest strength - his private sector experience - and twisted it into a weakness... or at least nullified it to a 50/50 proposition. Did HRC do that with Trump? I'm not sure. Maybe they thought he had no strengths.
 
Hadn'tn thought about the library. That is funny.
If you want to laugh a bit to yourself, think about the non political pomp and traditions a president does, but picture Trump doing them.

Easter egg hunts, the turkey pardons, meeting Olympic Athletes, college speeches

Random stuff every other president has done fine, but Trump will probably make weird, awkward and somehow mess up. He's going to be completely disinterested in any of those things.
 

Bowdz

Member
New Mexico and Nevada would seem to be the next two logical places. Seems to have a lot of support in Arizona too.

I posted earlier that New Mexico definitely came through in spades for the Dems. We took back the House, held the Senate, picked up the SoS and put in Dems down the ballot. Look up Hector Balderas too for hopefully our next Dem gov. nominee. I'm bullish on his chances in 2018. He got more votes than Susana Martinez in 2014.
 
Not sure I'd call if "over-demonizing."

It was the wrong message. Maybe the con-man message would have been better than the apocalyptic message, because the message ended up veering way too close to guilt by association. I think we only hit him where he was weak, when we really could have taken away where he was strong. The racism, the misogyny - for many, those are features, not bugs.

This is very true as well. Cut muscle, not fat. His base was hugely convinced that he had the necessary experience due to his business. Lean harder on the conman/failure stuff.

I mean the man said, with a straight face, that he wanted to ban half my family from the country - a country built partially on the concept of religious freedom. I mean how fucking fucked is that? With regards to the Khan family, even fucking Russia thought Trump's comments were disqualifying. RUSSIA!

Like if you can "see past that" I dunno what to tell you. Clinton ads pretty much all used Trump's own words against him. There wasn't any hyperbole.

It's fucking everything goes now in politics :/

Fuck you establishment Republicans who stood by this because you were power hungry.

I can't see past that, but clearly other people can, or at least convince themselves that it's not true. We constantly saw people excusing Trump not just from his attacks, but from his own words... gotta be something for that.
 

Doc Holliday

SPOILER: Columbus finds America
We keep talking about Hillary, but things could have been a lot different if democrats actually showed up n 2010,2012, 2014.

We could have passed Infrastructure that would have helped the rustbelt maybe we could have a majority in the senate or house now too.

This has to do with the fact that the Democratic, young people, are unreliable voters. Not to mention that we systematic voter suppression efforts against minorities in pretty much every state governed by Republicans.
 

Zamorro

Member
Did we over-demonize Trump?

It doesn't seem to have scared people into voting against him, not in significant numbers. And it certainly did a hell of a job of lionizing him to his base. "Look at how much these people we hate hate him! He must be FANTASTIC."

I'm also curious if by leaning into the "Trump is the worst ever" (he is, don't get me wrong) thing too much, there weren't a fair few people who started to dismiss it as Godwinning.

Demonizing a candidate like Trump only strengthens him. He relies on the media to attack him so that his own supporters can defend him and in that way these supporters are drawn closer to him.
 
So my room mate is a real piece of shit;

He also said I had no balls because I voted for Clinton, and that "I couldn't vote for her, not because I'm sexist, but because I think women can't make good leaders. They lack things like Charisma, Emotional Stamina, and Reliability." I called him a fucking idiot. Things were rough at my place last night.

Hoo boy, I have some bad news for your roommate. He appears to have misunderstood what sexism is.
 

Kid Heart

Member
I'm staying out of the political talk right now because my head is spinning and my heart is broken and I just don't know what to think about a lot of things, but I'm backing you in on this one. TPM is a fun film and gets way too much flack.

Smh, I can't believe you guys

I thought I was the only one left here who still likes that movie.
 
The stock market even denied me the satisfaction of at least being able to say that investors hate the idea of a President Trump.

This day has been one loss after another.

I actually take it as a good thing. Maybe Trump is not as insane as we think? If he somehow ends up being a good president at least for the economy that's a good thing. Because right now I'm expecting a market crush exactly 2 years from now.
 
The question I'm wondering right now is who runs in 2020? I can't even think of a Democrat prepared to take on Trump with his unorthodox campaign. Tim Kaine would be a logical choice but I think he may be tainted by Hillary at this point. I honestly can't see a Democrat who wins in 2020 unless Donald Trump straight up goes ham violating the Constitution--not that Republican's traditionally give a fuck about that once in office.

Hoo boy, I have some bad news for your roommate. He appears to have misunderstood what sexism is.

He's a white christian conservative who actively calls women sluts and cunts. He also said he thinks Trump is terrible but that Hillary was going to force him to turn in his collection of Guns so he just had to vote Republican.
 

Vestal

Junior Member
Yes. We absolutely did.

Looking back at stuff and the "gafs" both of them had that were made into a big deal was absolutely ridiculous. And barely even comparable to what we have now. Like there's nothing Romney or McCain said or did that I can remember that barely even registers with me anymore.

Not that neither candidate did not do or say things that people should have been outraged by, or what have you.. But we reached for nonsense at times.

The only thing that I can think of that was on Trumps level was Palin....

End of the day though I could live with a McCain or Romney presidency, I disagreed with them on policy but they were decent honorable men.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
But where are Democrats winning doing what you're saying? Kansas. Kentucky. Dems couldn't win or hold governor there. They only win in la cuz of vitters scandal.

I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just not sure if anything matters more than the r by the name. I want contrary evidence. Shit I need it just to feel ever so slightly better.

All politics is national in the modern era. We're not in the '60s and '70s, you can't run 'Democrats' in red states who barely shared any similarities with the national party. Every single Democratic candidate, more or less, was irrevocably identified with Clinton, or the Democratic party as a whole. I think the only real exception to that rule this cycle was Kander.
 

jtb

Banned
We keep talking about Hillary, but things could have been a lot different if democrats actually showed up n 2010,2012, 2014.

We could have passed Infrastructure that would have helped the rustbelt maybe we could have a majority in the senate or house now too.

This has to do with the fact that the Democratic, young people, are unreliable voters. Not to mention that we systematic voter suppression efforts against minorities in pretty much every state governed by Republicans.

I agree. this is a rot six years in the making, frustratingly.

how did Democrats lose the messaging battle on healthcare? this should be our most potent weapon in the rust belt, this should be the issue that keeps states like Pennsylvania solidified in the democrat column.

we need to win that battle again, because that is, has been, and will continue to be the democrat's most important and defining issue.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
The question I'm wondering right now is who runs in 2020? I can't even think of a Democrat prepared to take on Trump with his unorthodox campaign. Tim Kaine would be a logical choice but I think he may be tainted by Hillary at this point. I honestly can't see a Democrat who wins in 2020 unless Donald Trump straight up goes ham violating the Constitution--not that Republican's traditionally give a fuck about that once in office.

Al Franken? I mean, that's literally where I am at this point.
 
The question I'm wondering right now is who runs in 2020? I can't even think of a Democrat prepared to take on Trump with his unorthodox campaign. Tim Kaine would be a logical choice but I think he may be tainted by Hillary at this point. I honestly can't see a Democrat who wins in 2020 unless Donald Trump straight up goes ham violating the Constitution--not that Republican's traditionally give a fuck about that once in office.
Bernie would easily win in 2020 if everything goes as we expect it to go.
 
I think alot of the blame should be put on the media. They didn't call trump out on any of his bullshit, or the gop on all thier bullshit for that matter.

Every time i turned on cnn it was either a trump speech or people going all in on emails.

Not exactly fair or balanced, right cnn?



Should be a fun 4 years of social conservatives tearing down the fabric of our society.

Can't fucking wait!

I deleted my facebook account and am basically going to become a hermit.

My protest beard is going to be glorious.
 

Bowdz

Member
The question I'm wondering right now is who runs in 2020? I can't even think of a Democrat prepared to take on Trump with his unorthodox campaign. Tim Kaine would be a logical choice but I think he may be tainted by Hillary at this point. I honestly can't see a Democrat who wins in 2020 unless Donald Trump straight up goes ham violating the Constitution--not that Republican's traditionally give a fuck about that once in office.

No one can predict the future at this point.
 
I actually take it as a good thing. Maybe Trump is not as insane as we think? If he somehow ends up being a good president at least for the economy that's a good thing. Because right now I'm expecting a market crush exactly 2 years from now.

Dude it's been what 12 hours? The markets are just trading like crazy because, fuck it. Once policy hits and the middle class is fucked beyond repair hoo boy
 
The question I'm wondering right now is who runs in 2020? I can't even think of a Democrat prepared to take on Trump with his unorthodox campaign. Tim Kaine would be a logical choice but I think he may be tainted by Hillary at this point. I honestly can't see a Democrat who wins in 2020 unless Donald Trump straight up goes ham violating the Constitution--not that Republican's traditionally give a fuck about that once in office.
Obama was an up and coming freshman senator in 2004, relatively unknown outside of Illinois. He became president in 2008.

The next Democrat president is probably already elected into the government somewhere, just waiting for their moment.
 
All politics is national in the modern era. We're not in the '60s and '70s, you can't run 'Democrats' in red states who barely shared any similarities with the national party. Every single Democratic candidate, more or less, was irrevocably identified with Clinton, or the Democratic party as a whole. I think the only real exception to that rule this cycle was Kander.
We did it pretty well in 06 and 08.

Post Dean DNC has been a disaster.
 

Zamorro

Member
Obama took Romney's biggest strength - his private sector experience - and twisted it into a weakness... or at least nullified it to a 50/50 proposition. Did HRC do that with Trump? I'm not sure. Maybe they thought he had no strengths.
Maybe they should have questioned his sincerity in attacking minorities and implied that he was just saying these things to attract support and that he was secretly a liberal. That would have been an attack on his strength.
 

Vestal

Junior Member
The question I'm wondering right now is who runs in 2020? I can't even think of a Democrat prepared to take on Trump with his unorthodox campaign. Tim Kaine would be a logical choice but I think he may be tainted by Hillary at this point. I honestly can't see a Democrat who wins in 2020 unless Donald Trump straight up goes ham violating the Constitution--not that Republican's traditionally give a fuck about that once in office.

My hope right now is that Obama stays true in his cause to push for better redistricting, and that it allows a path forward for the D party in 2020..

We will probably have a very fresh new face in 2020, or might have a surprise from an unexpected place..
 
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