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PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented

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Makai

Member
@realDonaldTrump - Governor John Kasich of the GREAT, GREAT, GREAT State of Ohio called to congratulate me on the win. The people of Ohio were incredible!
 
he got more votes than romney in every battleground state except one (virginia)

from OT:



wrt wisconsin, north carolina, and maybe michigan: salvageable for a dem who's more inspiring, less polarizing, and less likely to spend most of a month fundraising in CA/NY instead of even so much as visiting small towns and cities

wrt florida: jesus fucking christ
Regarding Florida, wasn't Hillary's total also significantly higher than Obama's? Seems turnout there was practically maxed out.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
I haven't been keeping up with this thread, but Democrats might have an even bigger Senate problem going forward with increased polarization: there are too many red states.

From what we have of the results so far, Hillary lost 20 states by greater than 10%. If voters in reliably Red states become less affected by Democratic waves, that could give Republicans 40 solid seats. Joe Donnelly, Claire McCaskill, Jon Tester, Heidi Heitkamp and Joe Manchin are in serious danger unless Democrats put weight behind their races in 2018. Tammy Baldwin, Bob Casey, Debbie Stabenow, Sherrod Brown and Bill Nelson are also susceptible but should survive if Democrats have a good showing. Beating Jeff Flake and Dean Heller would alleviate some of the burdens.

Cook PVI seems confident about it since parties in power often lose in midterms, but I remain cautious.

EDIT: Miscounted

I'm worried about this too. I think increasing party polarization/nationalization means that red state Democrats are going to become extinct over the next decade or so, and yeah, that means the Senate is always going to be right on the cusp of a Republican majority even on the Democrats' best performance.

Clinton winning the popular vote is all fine and good, but when every American institution privileges the rural vote, you have to start doing well with the rural vote.

The nationalization of politics is the same story everywhere, incidentally. There was a really good comparative article of European countries I read a while back talking about the decline of local factors and the increased prediction strength of government popularity.
 

Diablos

Member
It was all so good just two weeks ago.

CxQnC4HUoAAzQt3.jpg
Comey?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member

People keep saying this, and I don't think it's true. I've been playing with the data a bit, and what I notice is that through almost the entire race - right back from May - Clinton's share of the vote in national polls remain constant. Doesn't go up, doesn't go down, just sits pretty on about 48% - which was more or less the actual result. What does change throughout the race is Trump's share going up, Trump having a 'scandal', then Trump's share going down, and undecided increasing, then repeat. I think the overwhelming majority of undecided voters were always going to break to Trump. Comey's email drop wasn't what caused that; these were always people who were tempted by Trump's "bring back the jobs" but put off by his "pussy grabber", if you see what I mean.

It's convenient to blame Comey, but even if you remove him from the equation, I'm not convinced Clinton wins.
 

Maledict

Member
People keep saying this, and I don't think it's true. I've been playing with the data a bit, and what I notice is that through almost the entire race - right back from May - Clinton's share of the vote in national polls remain constant. Doesn't go up, doesn't go down, just sits pretty on about 48% - which was more or less the actual result. What does change throughout the race is Trump's share going up, Trump having a 'scandal', then Trump's share going down, and undecided increasing, then repeat. I think the overwhelming majority of undecided voters were always going to break to Trump. Comey's email drop wasn't what caused that; these were always people who were tempted by Trump's "bring back the jobs" but put off by his "pussy grabber", if you see what I mean.

It's convenient to blame Comey, but even if you remove him from the equation, I'm not convinced Clinton wins.

Both campaigns said that Comey made a noticeable impact for her in the polls, particularly in terms of depressing her turnout and providing a last minute focus for his. At this stage, when they are both saying the same thing from very different models and polls I think it would be silly to write that off given how close the result was.
 

kess

Member
More people voted for Hillary. They all live in cities though. You have country now ruled by the will of white farmers. Full circle.

I've been wondering to myself if rural voters have more power by capita than at any point in our history -- or at least before the Civil War. Trump seems like he should have been another William Jennings Bryan in the electoral sense.
 

Diablos

Member
Both campaigns said that Comey made a noticeable impact for her in the polls, particularly in terms of depressing her turnout and providing a last minute focus for his. At this stage, when they are both saying the same thing from very different models and polls I think it would be silly to write that off given how close the result was.
Yeah, they broke for Trump by a lot. He really wasn't doing anything differently. I just think those letters let him capitalize on the "rigged system" narrative and dumb voters are it up. I think it's fair to say Comey turned away just enough voters from Hillary to really make an impact.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Both campaigns said that Comey made a noticeable impact for her in the polls, particularly in terms of depressing her turnout and providing a last minute focus for his. At this stage, when they are both saying the same thing from very different models and polls I think it would be silly to write that off given how close the result was.

I don't think those campaigns were right. Both campaigns were shambolic, I don't think saying they came to the wrong conclusions about all sorts of things is out of the question. I mean, especially saying Comey caused Clinton to have poor turnout - she didn't even have poor turnout in the first place (some specific demographics aside), that was one of the big misconceptions based on early vote counts that had millions of votes outstanding.

I think both campaigns thought that the undecideds who broke for Trump were actually undecideds in the true sense of the word who had their minds decided by the email bomb. I don't think that's right, and I think most further analysis will conclude that these people were never really 'undecided' at all - they just didn't want to admit it, or felt at least partially uncomfortable about their choice even if they weren't going to overturn it.
 
Pixieking, if something isn't threadworthy, we'll typically lock it. Or it will fall off the front page into the thread graveyard.


Anyway, Bitch Beer Cilizza has another take on the post-mortem.
Responding to a question about how Clinton could lose despite being ahead in every traditional measure of the campaign, Grunwald said:

How it will happen would be that the desire for change was greater than the fear of [Donald Trump], the fear of the risk.
...
That's it. That's the election in a nutshell: change vs. risk.
Why did Clinton lose, then? Because no one understood just how much people wanted change and how big a risk they were willing to take to put someone way outside of the political system into the White House.
That's what happened to the Clinton campaign. It was based on the old rules of the road. If your opponent is the change candidate, turn that change against him. Rather than refreshing change, turn it into dangerous change.

That all happened. And Trump still won.
 
I don't think those campaigns were right. Both campaigns were shambolic, I don't think saying they came to the wrong conclusions about all sorts of things is out of the question. I mean, especially saying Comey caused Clinton to have poor turnout - she didn't even have poor turnout in the first place (some specific demographics aside), that was one of the big misconceptions based on early vote counts that had millions of votes outstanding.

I think both campaigns thought that the undecideds who broke for Trump were actually undecideds in the true sense of the word who had their minds decided by the email bomb. I don't think that's right, and I think most further analysis will conclude that these people were never really 'undecided' at all - they just didn't want to admit it, or felt at least partially uncomfortable about their choice even if they weren't going to overturn it.

Its possible that Comey 'justified' a final Trump vote to some who might have ended up not voting instead without it, but I suspect you're right and the undecideds were going to break Trump in any case so that makes it hard to quantify the effect.

ETA - I don't think Crab is saying Comey had no effect on the polls, he's saying the effect was that people who were "undecided" (going to vote Trump but ashamed of it) decided in light of that information they could be honest without huge shame ie it effected polls but not election results.
 

Oni Jazar

Member
Comey and Wikileaks was a never-ending drip of the untrustworthy narrative that completely destroyed Hillary's message week after week. It put her in a false equivalence with Trump and made her always on defense. Yes Hillary's team made mistakes of their own but to think that both the FBI and the Russians helped bring us to where we are is mind numbing.
 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opin...c20df4-aaa0-11e6-977a-1030f822fc35_story.html
I guess "moderate Republicans" still want the party back. Even after falling in line with Trump at the voting booth.
Many Republican members of Congress are frankly confused. Are they supposed to follow Trump’s lead or supply his agenda? He has embraced massive infrastructure investment, but there is no favored bill or detailed plan. Obamacare must go, but what approach to “replace” does Trump prefer? House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (Wis.) is pushing for tax reform. Does the president-elect have any interest in the topic at all? The biggest frustration reported by Republicans who have met with Trump is his inability to focus for any period of time. He is impatient with facts and charts and he changes the subject every few minutes. Republican leaders need policy leadership — or permission to provide it themselves.
Surprise!

One area where the agenda is unifying and well-developed concerns the reversal of Obama-era executive orders. Republican lawyers have spent the past year and a half working in study groups on reversal language in order to be ready on the first day of a GOP presidency. The action most likely to cause controversy would overturn President Obama’s limited amnesty for students brought illegally to the United States as children. Most Republicans think that executive order was illegal; but most Americans will probably find the victims of reversing the order to be sympathetic.
Yeah, I'm sure his voters will be appalled by the reversal of DACA.

This hints at the long-term political crisis faced by the triumphant GOP. Trump won the presidency in a manner that undermines the GOP’s electoral future. He demonstrated that the “coalition of the ascendant” — including minorities, millennials and the college-educated — is not yet ascendant. But in a nation where over half of children under 5 years old are racial or ethnic minorities, it eventually will be. Trump was elected by a 70 percent white electorate. But that was about two percentage points lower than in the 2012 election — and that number has been dropping by about two points each presidential election for decades. Trump’s white-turnout strategy is not the wave of the future; it is the last gasp of an old and disturbing electoral approach
Problem still remains those people are concentrated in what were swing states.
 

Pixieking

Banned
Pixieking, if something isn't threadworthy, we'll typically lock it. Or it will fall off the front page into the thread graveyard.

Yeah, that's what I thought, but considering I've been on GAF since March, and my first thread was the Newsweek one, I'm a little gun-shy. :)

Comey and Wikileaks was a never-ending drip of the untrustworthy narrative that completely destroyed Hillary's message week after week. It put her in a false equivalence with Trump and made her always on defense. Yes Hillary's team made mistakes of their own but to think that both the FBI and the Russians helped bring us to where we are is mind numbing.

Yeah... One of my wife's colleagues mentioned at a party about how Trump is bad, but Hillary maybe leaked emails, and protected a child rapist, and maybe killed people at Benghazi Idon'tknow. How do you fight people who are so ill-informed and so unwilling to learn? Thank fuck he wasn't an American citizen, otherwise it would've been a very messy party.
 
The constant drumbeat of almost-scandal from Wikileaks/Comey absolutely depressed Hillary's vote. I don't know if it actually turned anyone towards Trump but it dampened excitement and made a lot of people, at the very least, uneasy about Hillary.
 

HariKari

Member
Or to set the bar extremely low, so when he doesn't come out and shit his pants, people are relieved.

Possibly.

Door in the face strategy. Be outrageous, then be less outrageous and look better.

GOP will throw him under the bus and go with Pence first clear cut chance they get.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
ETA - I don't think Crab is saying Comey had no effect on the polls, he's saying the effect was that people who were "undecided" (going to vote Trump but ashamed of it) decided in light of that information they could be honest without huge shame ie it effected polls but not election results.

yeah, this. I think if you remove Comey, we just have an even crazier election day where the polls looked even less close but Trump still wins.

I mean, Trump was associated with Russia, caught on tape making pussy grabber remarks, doesn't give a shit about abortion - these are all scandals to his base. Any other politician doing them would have been destroyed. Like, they're way bigger ones than emails. But at the end of the day, you had one candidate who was a pussy grabber but was at least going to bring the jobs back, and you had another candidate who wasn't. So, they overlooked the scandals - the way literally everyone, us included, has a tendency to ignore scandals when they're on our own side. People still rate Kennedy as an all-time great and "grab them by the pussy" was his raison d'etre.

Emailgate was just a convenient excuse - a way to say "oh, they're both equally as bad", and therefore you can vote Trump. They weren't the underlying problem, although they perhaps exacerbated it by giving people the 'courage' to voice their convictions. The key problem was that Clinton had nothing to say to these people. They probably know, a lot of them, they voted for a racist candidate, and they know that's not acceptable to a lot of people, and they picked up 'emails' as a shield. But if you drop emails, it doesn't materially change things that much, I think. It would have been something else.
 

PBY

Banned
Guys

We're a month removed from Rs Unendorsing him and wondering if he'd drop.

Hills team. Dropped. The. Ball. So. Fucking. Bad.
 
The labor dispute in Nevada represents another potential complication. The president appoints all five members of the National Labor Relations Board. But over the past year, the Trump International Hotel Las Vegas has been in a battle with the culinary workers union, at first challenging an effort by hotel employees to unionize. The labor board ruled against him in July. Then the hotel, which Mr. Trump co-owns, refused to begin negotiations with the new union, and the labor board again ruled against it, in November. Other labor disputes with employees are pending.
Reading about Trump's "blind trust" where he can see everything and talks to the people overseeing his assets daily.

Did this get any play at all during the campaign? I'm really struggling to remember anything about the man of the people, champion of the white working class, trying to prevent his workers from unionising?

....

Also this is a minefield of conflict of interest. Even simple things like interest rates, tax rates.
“Doing business with a foreign corporation, be it in Azerbaijan, Turkey or Russia, if is it owned in part or controlled by a foreign government — any benefit that would accrue to Mr. Trump could well be a violation of the Emoluments Clause of the United States Constitution,” said Kenneth A. Gross, a political ethics and compliance lawyer in Washington.

There are also more general issues that could prove troubling. For instance, Mr. Trump will nominate the Treasury secretary, yet he owes hundreds of millions of dollars to banks, and he benefits from low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, an institution he has criticized as political. The head of the Internal Revenue Service is also appointed by the president, and the agency is currently auditing Mr. Trump’s taxes and sets tax policy that directly affects his businesses.

....
Even this week, Ms. Trump turned her appearance on Sunday on “60 Minutes” — with her father — into a marketing opportunity for her line of jewelry, with one of her employees urging reporters to write about the $10,800 gold bangle bracelet she wore during the interview.
 

Pixieking

Banned
Okay, so, the Electoral College.

Yes, I know that the electors are picked by the parties, and all the reasons why they can't change votes.

Serious question: Given these candidates are watching the same news we are about lobbyists, lack of investment, Carrier moving abroad, watching the quotes from Nazi Party chairman scroll by on Fox or CNN, and seeing the same rise in violence and hate... Is there any reason for us to think (not hope, mind you, just think) that they would change vote?

I mean, I know that them switching to Hillary might actually start a new civil war, so I'm not particularly hoping for this to happen, but they've got to be wondering who they have pledged their votes to, right?
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Okay, so, the Electoral College.

Yes, I know that the electors are picked by the parties, and all the reasons why they can't change votes.

Serious question: Given these candidates are watching the same news we are about lobbyists, lack of investment, Carrier moving abroad, watching the quotes from Nazi Party chairman scroll by on Fox or CNN, and seeing the same rise in violence and hate... Is there any reason for us to think (not hope, mind you, just think) that they would change vote?

I mean, I know that them switching to Hillary might actually start a new civil war, so I'm not particularly hoping for this to happen, but they've got to be wondering who they have pledged their votes to, right?

I know you said you know it, but I don't think you quite realized what it means when campaigns pick their electors. Trump's electors are 303 mini-Bannons. Of course they're voting for the Bannon-in-chief. You might as well ask what the odds are of Trump resigning in favour of Clinton.
 

Pixieking

Banned
I know you said you know it, but I don't think you quite realized what it means when campaigns pick their electors. Trump's electors are 303 mini-Bannons. Of course they're voting for the Bannon-in-chief. You might as well ask what the odds are of Trump resigning in favour of Clinton.

Mmmm... I'm just working on the assumption that at least some of them are actually legit nice people worried about jobs.

But, of course, there's that saying about assumptions.

(Fun fact, I got my wife to say the end of that saying once.

Me: "You know the saying, assume makes an ass out of you..."
Her: "... and me."

Died laughing. :D )

Did WI's voting laws really keep 300k people from voting? Geez...

Snopes semi-disprove that. They acknowledge that voter ID laws affected numbers, but can't verify that 300k is the exact head-count of lost on-the-day votes.

Edit:
Dave Wasserman Verified account
‏@Redistrict

Hillary Clinton's popular vote lead up to 954,000 w/ 129.4 million votes counted. Still millions left to go https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/133Eb4qQmOxNvtesw2hdVns073R68EZx4SfCnP4IGQf8/edit#gid=19

64 million people voted for a rapist, racist, sexist idiot who didn't pay contractors and claims global warming is a hoax. I mean, I feel a slowclap.gif is both very appropriate, and very hurtful right now.
 
I know you said you know it, but I don't think you quite realized what it means when campaigns pick their electors. Trump's electors are 303 mini-Bannons. Of course they're voting for the Bannon-in-chief. You might as well ask what the odds are of Trump resigning in favour of Clinton.
To be fair, picking suitable electors doesn't seem like something the Trump campaign would have thought about... ever? He probably okayed a list Priebus handed him or something.

That said, still no chance of course.
 

thefro

Member
Now deficits don't matter again

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/deficit-donald-trump-republicans-231372

Politico said:
A serious case of fiscal amnesia may soon be sweeping the GOP.

For eight years, Republicans hammered President Barack Obama for exploding the national debt. But now a GOP-led spending spree is coming, with Donald Trump riding to the White House on trillion-dollar promises and a Republican Congress that looks likely to do his bidding. It’s a potential echo of the last time Republicans ran Washington, when then-Vice President Dick Cheney memorably remarked, “Deficits don’t matter.”

Trump campaigned heartily on a spending splurge and nothing he’s said since his shocking election suggests he will reverse course. Republican leaders on Capitol Hill, meanwhile, are papering over divisions with the man who frequently tossed party orthodoxy aside on the trail.

“There is now a real risk that we will see an onslaught of deficit-financed goodies — tax cuts, infrastructure spending, more on defense — all in the name of stimulus, but which in reality will massively balloon the debt,” said Maya MacGuineas, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

The non-partisan group estimated Trump’s campaign proposals would increase the national debt by a whopping $5.3 trillion over the next decade. That would make the debt as a share of the economy rise from nearly 77 percent to 105 percent, a potentially dangerous level for the government.

Not all of the promises Trump made on the trail will be enacted, of course, but even just a few would mean a flood of red ink.

Politico said:
Trump and congressional Republicans are also planning enormous tax cuts for businesses and individuals — with high-income households getting the biggest benefits. The non-partisan Tax Policy Center estimated Trump’s tax plan would increase the federal debt by $7.2 trillion over a decade. In comparison, the huge George W. Bush-era tax cuts cost less than $2 trillion. House GOP leadership is already on board the Trump tax train.

“Donald Trump put out a tax plan in the campaign that is almost the same as the tax plan [of] House Republicans,” Speaker Paul Ryan told Fox News’ Bret Baier last week. “We are absolutely on the same page on reforming the tax code.”

Ryan is also downplaying any differences between GOP lawmakers and the president-elect on the question of curbing entitlement spending. Trump made an ostentatious show of his support for Social Security during the presidential campaign, suggesting he was a different type of Republican, opposed to attempts to reform the popular retirement program.

Ryan, meanwhile, made his name in Washington as a fiscal hawk and has consistently warned of Social Security’s future insolvency. But when asked about it by Baier, Ryan demurred. “Frankly, the fiscal pressures are mounting faster on health care than they are on Social Security,” Ryan said.
 

Diablos

Member
Mmmm... I'm just working on the assumption that at least some of them are actually legit nice people worried about jobs.

But, of course, there's that saying about assumptions.

(Fun fact, I got my wife to say the end of that saying once.

Me: "You know the saying, assume makes an ass out of you..."
Her: "... and me."

Died laughing. :D )



Snopes semi-disprove that. They acknowledge that voter ID laws affected numbers, but can't verify that 300k is the exact head-count of lost on-the-day votes.

Edit:
So basically we can't say anything necessarily happened ON Election Day but since their voter ID laws were passed it has been a sustained effort to push tons of people away. Still just as devistating.
 

Wilsongt

Member
Can you imagine how Trump will react when the CBO releases a report on his tax plan and it turns out to be shit?

"lyin' partisan CBO saying my tax plan is terrible. I should sue! Sad! #MAGfSWPA"
 

Wilsongt

Member
Get FUCKED McCrory.

Even as Donald Trump won the state, North Carolina voters chose last week to elect a new liberal majority to the state supreme court. The new North Carolina Supreme Court would provide a check on the power of the GOP’s veto-proof super-majority in the state legislature. But the legislature has come up with a scheme that would add two seats to the court and allow Gov. Pat McCrory (R) to appoint two justices — maintaining the conservative majority.

Gov. McCrory himself is likely on his way out, having received several thousand fewer votes than challenger Roy Cooper, but he has not yet conceded and is waiting for the results of a recount. The court-packing bill could thus allow the lame duck governor to decide the future of the state supreme court for years to come.

This would not be the North Carolina legislature’s first attempt to disregard the voters and guarantee a conservative majority on the state supreme court. A 2015 bill would have kept the winning liberal candidate, Judge Mike Morgan, from even running in last week’s election. It would have changed North Carolina Supreme Court elections from contested races to retention elections, in which the public votes “yes” or “no” on whether to keep the justices on the bench. Even if the voters had rejected the conservative incumbent, the bill would have allowed McCrory to appoint his successor to serve for two years. The law was struck down as violating the state constitution.
 

chadskin

Member
What was the original rec?

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/11/10/to-an-anxious-friend/
You asked what I thought about going to work in a Trump Administration. I do not have to worry about that, of course: I was one of the ringleaders in denouncing him as unfit by temperament, character, and judgment for political office. They will have no use for me, or, to be fair, I for them. But others, including some of my younger friends, will have jobs dangled in front of them, because the government has to be staffed.

It seems to me that if they are sure that they would say yes out of a sense of duty rather than mere careerism; if they are realistic in understanding that in this enterprise they will be the horse, not the jockey; if they accept that they will enter an administration likely to be torn by infighting and bureaucratic skullduggery, they should say yes. Yes, with two conditions, however: that they keep a signed but undated letter of resignation in their desk office (as I did when I was in government), and that they not recant a word of what they have said thus far. Public service means making accommodations, but everyone needs to understand that there is a point where crossing a line, even an arbitrary line, means, as Sir Thomas More says in A Man for All Seasons, letting go without hope of ever finding yourself again.

It goes without saying that friends in military, diplomatic, or intelligence service—the career people who keep our country strong and safe—should continue to do their jobs. If anything, having professionals serve who remember that their oath is to support and defend the Constitution—and not to truckle to an individual or his clique—will be more important than ever.
 
More people voted for Hillary. They all live in cities though. You have country now ruled by the will of white farmers. Full circle.

I disagree. Democrats were just lazy and/or threw a tantrum and voted third party because "b-b-but tha Establushmunt!".

Not saying this is the sole reason, but if Millennials bothered to give a damn Hillary could have won it.
 
That Sanders comment about the worst case scenario on Colbert gave me shills.


I wonder how much damage the next government can do to the fundamentals of democracy to load the dice in their favour going forward. We all know the changing demographics of the US. The white vote is slowly becoming smaller. They know it too and will fight it.


I can understand conservative values to a point but the current republican party are kind of becoming that kind of evil you only read about in history books in the lead up to a world war or civil war
 

Pixieking

Banned
Get FUCKED McCrory.

How many Democrats are as corrupt/power-hungry/vain as Republicans? Would it be possible to run 2018/2020 with a national "clean-up politics/kick the GOP out" policy? I mean, NC politics seems toxic, and after Trump I think it'll be worse.

Not something to do if your party is just as dirty as the opponent's, though.
 
That Sanders comment about the worst case scenario on Colbert gave me shills.


I wonder how much damage the next government can do to the fundamentals of democracy to load the dice in their favour going forward. We all know the changing demographics of the US. The white vote is slowly becoming smaller. They know it too and will fight it.


I can understand conservative values to a point but the current republican party are kind of becoming that kind of evil you only read about in history books in the lead up to a world war or civil war

This is why the state legislatures and governors mansions are vital in 2018. They can be the front line on hurting voter suppression acts, and inadvertently with more state power coming can stave off some of the GOP damage.
 
How many Democrats are as corrupt/power-hungry/vain as Republicans? Would it be possible to run 2018/2020 with a national "clean-up politics/kick the GOP out" policy? I mean, NC politics seems toxic, and after Trump I think it'll be worse.

Not something to do if your party is just as dirty as the opponent's, though.

I certainly think it's possible for Democrats to gain in 2018 and 2020. DNC needs someone to lead so we can start to fix the problems within the party.
 
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