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PoliGAF 2016 |OT16| Unpresidented

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The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
I still can't think about Hillary, not really.

Yes her campaign was flawed. Yes, she was in the wrong states. Yes she got cocky, we all did

But she earnestly wanted to help everyone. And had a plan for it all. And after decades of public service we looked at her, spat in her face and said "nah we'll take him". And now all of that is lost.

I really believed in what she could do. I feel horrible
 

jtb

Banned
Smart people like Cohn and Enten seem certain that there is no way that Trump won more Latinos than Romney did.

Which, intuitively, makes sense considering HRC made big gains in Texas, Arizona, California; held on to Colorado and Nevada. Need to wait for the precinct by precinct data, I suppose.

Now, I also think it's plausible that significant portions of the Cuban vote came home to Trump. But we know that the Cuban Republican vote is somewhat distinct from the Latino electorate as a whole
 
Smart people like Cohn and Enten seem certain that there is no way that Trump won more Latinos than Romney did.

Which, intuitively, makes sense considering HRC made big gains in Texas, Arizona, California; held on to Colorado and Nevada. Need to wait for the precinct by precinct data, I suppose.

Now, I also think it's plausible that significant portions of the Cuban vote came home to Trump. But we know that the Cuban Republican vote is somewhat distinct from the Latino electorate as a whole

I wonder if lazy fucks didn't just poll a lot of Cubans in Florida and go yup 29% nationwide
 

jfkgoblue

Member
Agreed. But we should have civil discussions of what went wrong to improve. But we shouldn't also overthink it too much though.
Yes. IMO it's pretty simple. Show the working middle class that you aren't elitist snobs and how you have their interests in mind. Do something to try and win their vote back. It is simple but it may be quite difficult to pull off. Yes I know that is contradictory, but it is what needs to be done. Trump turned swing states into solid red states and "blue wall" states into swing states behind their vote.
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
A. That was waste from Vermont. Bernie Sanders' home state. Hell yeah, he needs to take more responsibility for it. The Texas delegation wrote him a letter. He ignored it.
B. It's insulting to say that only Latinos in Texas would be mad about Bernie shitting on their community. It's like saying the only Latinos who were going to be mad about Trump's wall were illegal immigrants. It's like saying that the only people who were offended by his comments about Judge Gonzalo Curiel was Judge Curiel.

You have to understand this. People can be offended about things that happened in communities other than their own, and cities/states that aren't their own. You can't just assume that Bernie Sanders will get the benefit of the doubt, just like you can't expect that people won't get offended by statements affecting their community even if they are in a different circumstance than the people in question.

This is what I wanted to post. Also, it goes against his personal narrative so who knows what kind of damage it would do. He's supposed to be the guy that's for everyone, only that those Hispanics who he dumped lily white Vermont's nuclear waste on. This thing has broken people's image of him into a million pieces, to say it's nothing is silly.
 

mackaveli

Member
I still can't think about Hillary, not really.

Yes her campaign was flawed. Yes, she was in the wrong states. Yes she got cocky, we all did

But she earnestly wanted to help everyone. And had a plan for it all. And after decades of public service we looked at her, spat in her face and said "nah we'll take him". And now all of that is lost.

I really believed in what she could do. I feel horrible

So do I. I'm in Canada so couldn't do much but I still can't believe it. I thought with all the adversity she has faced that it would be something to teach our children in the future that you can get through anything even with all the shit thrown her way.

And she would have done a lot to help children and families. I hope this is not the last of her. I hope this isn't the straw that breaks the camel's back. She has gotten up time and time again and I hope she doesn't quit and does something great with the foundation or anything really.
 
A. That was waste from Vermont. Bernie Sanders' home state. Hell yeah, he needs to take more responsibility for it. The Texas delegation wrote him a letter. He ignored it.
B. It's insulting to say that only Latinos in Texas would be mad about Bernie shitting on their community. It's like saying the only Latinos who were going to be mad about Trump's wall were illegal immigrants. It's like saying that the only people who were offended by his comments about Judge Gonzalo Curiel was Judge Curiel.

You have to understand this. People can be offended about things that happened in communities other than their own, and cities/states that aren't their own. You can't just assume that Bernie Sanders will get the benefit of the doubt, just like you can't expect that people won't get offended by statements affecting their community even if they are in a different circumstance than the people in question.

Just like white people in the rust belt were outraged at the treatment of Minorities...right? Clinton ignored them. They didn't give a fuck what happened in other communities because it wasn't them.

So why are you assuming that communities outside of Texas would give a fuck about what happened years ago on something that various people signed off on?

The point is, you repeating 'Sierra blanca' is just as meaningless as Trump yelling 'Iraq War' over and over again.

And like I said previously, continuing on 'what if' scenarios(Sierra Blanca would've been his superpredator moment!) is meaningless. Because Sanders never got to the point to make Sierra Blanca a sticking point against him in the GE, and we can't assume how the HIvemind of Latinos(apparently) would've reacted to learning about Sierra Blanca.
 
Yes. IMO it's pretty simple. Show the working middle class that you aren't elitist snobs and how you have their interests in mind. Do something to try and win their vote back. It is simple but it may be quite difficult to pull off. Yes I know that is contradictory, but it is what needs to be done. Trump turned swing states into solid red states and "blue wall" states into swing states behind their vote.

And by that you mean white folk eh?


Why do people always just pretend only white folk are working class

I mean btw she won the under 50000k a year vote...
 

jfkgoblue

Member
And by that you mean white folk eh?


Why do people always just pretend only white folk are working class

I mean btw she won the under 50000k a year vote...
That isn't helpful. The fact remains that Trump went all in on the Rust Belt and manufacturing jobs, and he rode it to the Presidency.

If Dems continue to ignore this painful fact, Ohio and Iowa are going to be part of the new "Red wall" and PA, WI, and MI are going to be the new swing states.
 
Just like white people in the rust belt were outraged at the treatment of Minorities...right? Clinton ignored them. They didn't give a fuck what happened in other communities because it wasn't them.

So why are you assuming that communities outside of Texas would give a fuck about what happened years ago on something that various people signed off on?

The point is, you repeating 'Sierra blanca' is just as meaningless as Trump yelling 'Iraq War' over and over again.

And like I said previously, continuing on 'what if' scenarios(Sierra Blanca would've been his superpredator moment!) is meaningless. Because Sanders never got to the point to make Sierra Blanca a sticking point against him in the GE, and we can't assume how the HIvemind of Latinos(apparently) would've reacted to learning about Sierra Blanca.


Did you just say Latinos wouldn't care what Sanders did to Latinos because white folk didn't care what was being done to minorities?
 
Did you just say Latinos wouldn't care what Sanders did to Latinos because white folk didn't care what was being done to minorities?

No, i said that we aren't a hive mind, and that it's possible that there wouldn't be this big outrage against a deal done years ago. And the point of bringing up the Rust belt, is that communities outside of their own(Even of the same race) tend to not worry about other communities so far apart from them.

But we don't know. And please, don't get angry for Latinos, you're talking to one right now.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Things like this and that one popular vote chart being tossed around are why I'm waiting at least a few weeks before analyzing the election data. The dust needs to settle and the final votes tallied before we can really begin to piece everything together.

Yes, besides much of what we know is based on exit polls, and I don't see how exit polls could be more accurate than the regular polls.

Exit polls are face to face too. If there is mass deception involved, it would be more likely.
 

jtb

Banned
The inability of exit polls to accurately capture the size/composition of the white working class in 2012 is the whole reason why we got in this mess in the first place lol
 

pigeon

Banned
It's because in this election they broke off as a different voting bloc.

By "different" you mean "white nationalist." Let's be clear.

Once again, an election lost by a slim margin in three states, while a huge advance was made in several normally red states owing to increased turnout among people of color and college-educated white people, does not constitute a crisis that requires immediately redesigning the Democratic Party to conform to your whims.
 

Totakeke

Member
One example: I’m from a small town in south Louisiana. The day before the election, I looked at the Facebook page of the current mayor. Among the items he posted there in the final 48 hours of the campaign: Hillary Clinton Calling for Civil War If Trump Is Elected. Pope Francis Shocks World, Endorses Donald Trump for President. Barack Obama Admits He Was Born in Kenya. FBI Agent Who Was Suspected Of Leaking Hillary’s Corruption Is Dead.

These are not legit anti-Hillary stories. (There were plenty of those, to be sure, both on his page and in this election cycle.) These are imaginary, made up, frauds. And yet Facebook has built a platform for the active dispersal of these lies — in part because these lies travel really, really well. (The pope’s “endorsement” has over 868,000 Facebook shares. The Snopes piece noting the story is fake has but 33,000.)

In a column just before the election, The New York Times’ Jim Rutenberg argued that “the cure for fake journalism is an overwhelming dose of good journalism.” I wish that were true, but I think the evidence shows that it’s not. There was an enormous amount of good journalism done on Trump and this entire election cycle, from both old-line giants like the Times and The Washington Post and digital natives like BuzzFeed and The Daily Beast. (There were plenty of good broadcast reporters on the beat as well, though what appeared on air left a lot to be desired.) For anyone who wanted to take it in, the pickings were rich.

http://www.niemanlab.org/2016/11/th...ctions-media-failure-are-likely-to-get-worse/

You know what, it finally hit me why there's no further civic techs in Civilization 6 after social media. It's the end of civilization as we know it. We're fucked.
gGlpXYO.png
 

mackaveli

Member
http://www.niemanlab.org/2016/11/th...ctions-media-failure-are-likely-to-get-worse/

You know what, it finally hit me why there's no further civic techs in Civilization 6 after social media. It's the end of civilization as we know it. We're fucked.

That's depressing. How can we fight against fake news stories if it's already enriched in all these voters minds. How can we tell them what they are reading is fake they will just say we are the establishment or something.
 
Just like white people in the rust belt were outraged at the treatment of Minorities...right? Clinton ignored them. They didn't give a fuck what happened in other communities because it wasn't them.

There is no shared community background at all.

White voters don't see themselves as immigrants, or the children of immigrants. They don't see themselves as having any common cultural heritage with minorities. No potential of a shared language.

It's a big difference.

So why are you assuming that communities outside of Texas would give a fuck about what happened years ago on something that various people signed off on?

So why are you assuming they wouldn't give a fuck about the Senator from Vermont dumping nuclear waste from Vermont on someone else?

The point is, you repeating 'Sierra blanca' is just as meaningless as Trump yelling 'Iraq War' over and over again.

Trump yelling Iraq War over and over again was effective. Just like Crooked Hillary was effective. Just like the emails were effective. Just like Dr. Benjamin Ghazi was effective.

And like I said previously, continuing on 'what if' scenarios(Sierra Blanca would've been his superpredator moment!) is meaningless. Because Sanders never got to the point to make Sierra Blanca a sticking point against him in the GE, and we can't assume how the HIvemind of Latinos(apparently) would've reacted to learning about Sierra Blanca.

Saying that people with a shared cultural background and potential common experiences would care about what happens to each other is acknowledging that they have empathy.
 

jfkgoblue

Member
By "different" you mean "white nationalist." Let's be clear.

Once again, an election lost by a slim margin in three states, while a huge advance was made in several normally red states owing to increased turnout among people of color and college-educated white people, does not constitute a crisis that requires immediately redesigning the Democratic Party to conform to your whims.
They were slim margins in traditionally BLUE STATES. Traditionally purple states became solid red states. To write it off as " white nationalism" is part of the reason we got to this point. These people may have supported a racist bigot, but that isn't the primary reason most voted for him. A lot of them have little encounters with minorities and so they didn't care that much, no matter how wrong they are in that. They are just people who are struggling and Donald Trump was able to appeal to them. Look I live in Ohio now, so I got to see a ton of campaign ads. Hillary just continually ran ads about how terrible Trump is. Trump didn't run those kinds of ads, he ran ads about how Washington doesn't give a fuck about blue collar workers and how he was going to fix that. That is how he won, not by yelling "deport them all" or "she's so crooked". He won on a message of hope for these people that he will bring them jobs back.

It may be insensitive to the minority's plight, but it wasn't based on overt hatred of them. This is an important distinction to make.
 
There is no shared community background at all.

White voters don't see themselves as immigrants, or the children of immigrants. They don't see themselves as having any common cultural heritage with minorities. No potential of a shared language.

It's a big difference.

So why are you assuming they wouldn't give a fuck about the Senator from Vermont dumping nuclear waste from Vermont on someone else?

Trump yelling Iraq War over and over again was effective. Just like Crooked Hillary was effective. Just like the emails were effective. Just like Dr. Benjamin Ghazi was effective.

Saying that pople with a shared cultural background and potential common experiences would care about what happens to each other is acknowledging that they have empathy.

There was a number of white people that voted Clinton because they empathized with her cause. Just like there were white people that didn't. Even between immigrants you get the same types of relationships-sometimes we empathize with each other, sometimes we don't. That's the sad truth.

Why are you assuming that they would give a fuck where waste was dumped years ago? Again, these what-ifs usually tend to fall apart when either side assumes that another what-if is concrete evidence that the original what-if would end in failure. We can go in circles at this point.

Trump yelling Iraq War was effective against his Republican opponents. But Hillary? He said it a few times but never made it a point. He had emails and benghazi. And the reasons why emails were more potent then getting her on the Iraq War vote? Because that was recent. Because the media played up the email scandal. Because Comey stepped in. Benghazi? Because that happened recently.

As for your last point, again in this what if, it's assuming that major swaths of the Latino community would have enough empathy for what legally happened in Texas, that they would rise up together to fight against Sanders(Or to make them stop voting for him.) In that scenario however, they still have a person who called Mexicans rapists and criminals.

The point is, we don't know how it would've gone with Sanders. But repeating 'Sierra Blanca' like a chant as if it's the smoking gun that is irrefutable proof that a what-if scenario would be reality, is well...we simply don't know.
 

Debirudog

Member
They were slim margins in traditionally BLUE STATES. Traditionally purple states became solid red states. To write it off as " white nationalism" is part of the reason we got to this point. These people may have supported a racist bigot, but that isn't the primary reason most voted for him. A lot of them have little encounters with minorities and so they didn't care that much, no matter how wrong they are in that. They are just people who are struggling and Donald Trump was able to appeal to them. Look I live in Ohio now, so I got to see a ton of campaign ads. Hillary just continually ran ads about how terrible Trump is. Trump didn't run those kinds of ads, he ran ads about how Washington doesn't give a fuck about blue collar workers and how he was going to fix that. That is how he won, not by yelling "deport them all" or "she's so crooked". He won on a message of hope for these people that he will bring them jobs back.

It may be insensitive to the minority's plight, but it wasn't based on overt hatred of them. This is an important distinction to make.

How about it's a mixture of both. Jobs and purging out those mexicans out because they're stealing them.
 

jtb

Banned
the irony (or perhaps not) of the far left fake news cottage industry is that most of it was used to undermine hillary
 

jfkgoblue

Member
How about it's a mixture of both. Jobs and purging out those mexicans out because they're stealing them.
He may have done that in other states, but in the Rust Belt he didn't. It was about NAFTA and TPP. There just isn't many illegal immigrants in the upper Midwest.
 

lednerg

Member
the irony (or perhaps not) of the far left fake news cottage industry is that most of it was used to undermine hillary

You're talking a niche of a niche here. Normal, everyday Americans weren't listening to shit like Jimmy Dore in enough numbers to matter. And the best leftist stuff like Sam Seder, Ben Dixon, Chapo Trap House, Richard D Wolff, etc. were all rooting for a Hillary win. Having a neoliberal in office made movements like Occupy and Bernie possible, after all. The division between liberals and the left was starting to show itself. Now it's going to be like the Dubya years, where everybody left of Trump will coalesce into some lame Daily Show reunion that is too busy attacking the right to actually promote the left. Oh, I should say, "Drumpf."
 
There was a number of white people that voted Clinton because they empathized with her cause. Just like there were white people that didn't. Even between immigrants you get the same types of relationships-sometimes we empathize with each other, sometimes we don't. That's the sad truth.

Why are you assuming that they would give a fuck where waste was dumped years ago? Again, these what-ifs usually tend to fall apart when either side assumes that another what-if is concrete evidence that the original what-if would end in failure. We can go in circles at this point.

Trump yelling Iraq War was effective against his Republican opponents. But Hillary? He said it a few times but never made it a point. He had emails and benghazi. And the reasons why emails were more potent then getting her on the Iraq War vote? Because that was recent. Because the media played up the email scandal. Because Comey stepped in. Benghazi? Because that happened recently.

As for your last point, again in this what if, it's assuming that major swaths of the Latino community would have enough empathy for what legally happened in Texas, that they would rise up together to fight against Sanders(Or to make them stop voting for him.) In that scenario however, they still have a person who called Mexicans rapists and criminals.

The point is, we don't know how it would've gone with Sanders. But repeating 'Sierra Blanca' like a chant as if it's the smoking gun that is irrefutable proof that a what-if scenario would be reality, is well...we simply don't know.

It's irrefutable proof against the Berniebro theory that Sanders would have automatically locked up the minority vote. That there is nothing out there that could be used against him. That he's clean.

You guys don't get that. You are accusing me of making assumptions, yet here you are making assumptions that this scandal would have been ineffective and Bernie would have gotten the votes.

Any case, I'm done with this conversation. This is the problem with your faction of the Democratic party. We lost an election by small margins. So, instead of making minor tweaks, the solution is to go far left. To bring a candidate who wants to go with single payer, a healthcare plan that failed by a margin of 80-20 in Colorado.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
It's irrefutable proof against the Berniebro theory that Sanders would have automatically locked up the minority vote. That there is nothing out there that could be used against him. That he's clean.

You guys don't get that. You are accusing me of making assumptions, yet here you are making assumptions that this scandal would have been ineffective and Bernie would have gotten the votes.

Any case, I'm done with this conversation. This is the problem with your faction of the Democratic party. We lost an election by small margins. So, instead of making minor tweaks, the solution is to go far left. To bring a candidate who wants to go with single payer, a healthcare plan that failed by a margin of 80-20 in Colorado.

And I'm genuinely scared that if these people steer the ship we get fucking routed in 2018 and 2020
 

kirblar

Member
We don't know what the political landscape looks like in 2018 and 2020.

You can be scared but I really wouldn't be when people are just discussing possible future policy and platform.
We know what the political landscape of the US looks like.

It ain't a far left socialist utopia.
 
It's irrefutable proof against the Berniebro theory that Sanders would have automatically locked up the minority vote. That there is nothing out there that could be used against him. That he's clean.

You guys don't get that. You are accusing me of making assumptions, yet here you are making assumptions that this scandal would have been ineffective and Bernie would have gotten the votes.

Any case, I'm done with this conversation. This is the problem with your faction of the Democratic party. We lost an election by small margins. So, instead of making minor tweaks, the solution is to go far left. To bring a candidate who wants to go with single payer, a healthcare plan that failed by a margin of 80-20 in Colorado.

you think I'm a berniebro?

I never liked Sanders. And assumptions are just that-assumptions. What-if scenarios. It's nice to dawdle on them, but to believe that what-if scenarios are concrete evidence that he would be X or Y is silly. A what-if discussion fails when one side is so resolute in what they believe would happen, that they don't listen to another what-if scenario because they think what they say would become reality in this what-if scenario.(The truth is, we don't know. Maybe Sanders could've won, maybe not.)

"Your faction of the Democratic party". lol. I don't believe we should go far-left-we have to crawl back to a more centrist position after this loss. (Which is why I'm leaning towards the 'HRC should've spent some time appealing to the WWC in the rust belt')
 
If the only actual "answers" for Democrats are to run a massive bullshit propaganda outlet or consider dumping parts of the available coalition I guess I'll have to be used the party losing for the rest of my life. I would probably be okay with that. No point in even being a party if you give up what you say you care about and what makes you better than the other guy just because it's temporarily not popular enough to grab a EC win. Lost in the fact that it's Trump that will be President is how freaking painful winning the PV is. Knowing Trump gets away with it when the majority voted against him is impossible to emotionally reconcile when his entire campaign was about claiming to listen straight-up to the will of the people.
I kinda feel like we don't need an even more centrist appeal unless you meant giving up on gun control and single payer.
Single payer was ever on the table? It'll be a miracle to get government option eventually. I think everyone is going to need to be happy with that. Gun control would be easy to campaign on if it wasn't a 100% partisan split issue like climate change. When one party lies to claim a problem doesn't exist you will never, ever be able to tackle it.
 

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
I kinda feel like we don't need an even more centrist appeal unless you meant giving up on gun control and single payer.

I think we need to drop single payer as a campaign issue because its looking like its toxic among all but the most hardcore liberals who make up only a tiny fraction of the electorate. Some complex health plan that includes a path to single payer is fine, but I am now convinced that running on it harms us.

Gun control...I don't know. Ugh
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
I kinda feel like we don't need an even more centrist appeal unless you meant giving up on gun control and single payer.

Honestly, given the extremely tight margin and popular vote win I'm not sure much needs to change outside of finding a far more charismatic candidate. I mean, there's strategy stuff that can be done (more campaigning in the rust belt next time) but at the end of the day the easiest fix is just to find a Clooney. Someone with charisma for days.
 
I kinda feel like we don't need an even more centrist appeal unless you meant giving up on gun control and single payer.

Honestly, given the extremely tight margin and popular vote win I'm not sure much needs to change outside of finding a far more charismatic candidate. I mean, there's strategy stuff that can be done (more campaigning in the rust belt next time) but at the end of the day the easiest fix is just to find a Clooney. Someone with charisma for days.

A charismatic candidate who is relatively squeaky clean. Which is what Obama was in 2008?
 
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