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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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Bishman

Member
Pinnacle sportsbook which has the highest limits off shore has Trump -390 to win the Republican Primary. That translates to an implied 79.5% favorite to win.
 

VRMN

Member
Pinnacle sportsbook which has the highest limits off shore has Trump -390 to win the Republican Primary. That translates to an implied 79.5% favorite to win.

I'd probably buy if I was interested in gambling on the crumbling of the American Republic.
 

Ecotic

Member
So aside from general-election trials still being absurdly noisy this far out, the fact that he literally hasn't been tested at all by a Republican smear machine, and the fact that his general-election path to victory likely relies on the one age demographic that has always historically failed to turn out turning out at 2008 levels or higher, are there any other reasons why the "Sanders is more electable against Trump!" argument is bullshit?

He's not nimble. After the Paris attacks at the debate he spent 30 seconds offering condolences then went immediately into his inequality, 1%, and big banks stump speech when the topic of discussion was clearly Isis and national security. He had months to tailor a message that appealed to minority concerns but tonally he never conveyed the feeling that he wasn't getting the obligatory minority mentions out of the way so he could get to his pet issues of inequality, the 1%, and Wall Street.

True believers just aren't nimble, they'll die charging the hill rather than adjust. That's one advantage Hillary's amorphism affords her, she'll adjust her message to wherever the votes are. Any time she was in South Carolina her emphasis was 90% on minority concerns.
 
He's not nimble. After the Paris attacks at the debate he spent 30 seconds offering condolences then went immediately into his inequality, 1%, and big banks stump speech when the topic of discussion was clearly Isis and national security. He had months to tailor a message that appealed to minority concerns but tonally he never conveyed the feeling that he wasn't getting the obligatory minority mentions out of the way so he could get to his pet issues of inequality, the 1%, and Wall Street.

True believers just aren't nimble, they'll die charging the hill rather than adjust. That's one advantage Hillary's amorphism affords her, she'll adjust her message to wherever the votes are. Any time she was in South Carolina her emphasis was 90% on minority concerns.

Sounds like his debate style is just asking for a "there you go again" moment in a general-election debate, then, with the added bonus that Trump ain't even gonna steal his briefing book.
 

danm999

Member
Omg my goodness I just resubbed to /r politics to check out the news feeed for the first time in a few months.

There are eight different variations of the Tulsi Gabbard story on the front page.

I hadn't realized how much of a bubble that place had become.
 

VRMN

Member
Omg my goodness I just resubbed to /r politics to check out the news feeed for the first time in a few months.

There are eight different variations of the Tulsi Gabbard story on the front page.

I hadn't realized how much of a bubble that place had become.

It felt very last gasp-y to me? I don't think that endorsement is going to move much, if anything. Tuesday still can very much be a knockout blow for Sanders.
 

Holmes

Member
Do you guys think the fact that the polls in almost every Southern state voting in Super Tuesday will close before caucuses in Colorado, Minnesota and Alaska begin will make a difference?
 

Kuros

Member
Omg my goodness I just resubbed to /r politics to check out the news feeed for the first time in a few months.

There are eight different variations of the Tulsi Gabbard story on the front page.

I hadn't realized how much of a bubble that place had become.

There are a few descenting voices on there now but its still a ridiculous echo chamber.

The mods actually deleted the original 1600 comment Hilary wins SC thread due to "title editorialising" Which is not a rule they enforce on any Sanders related link. They're not even attempting to be impartial.

r/politicaldiscussion is OK though.
 

Slacker

Member
It'll be funny if the John Oliver segment sparks a reaction from Trump that snowballs and damages him. Even funnier if Rubio ruined himself with his Trumpy behavior this weekend first.

Regarding r/politics, I've counted the first 50 stories a few times over the last week. Every time it's been about 15 pro Bernie stories, 25 anti-Hillary stories, 8 Trump stories, and 2 links I actually wanted to read. It's in bad shape.
 

UraMallas

Member
jEEH6m6.png


Something to think about.
On my phone. Quoting for later.
 

danm999

Member
It felt very last gasp-y to me? I don't think that endorsement is going to move much, if anything. Tuesday still can very much be a knockout blow for Sanders.

There are a few descenting voices on there now but its still a ridiculous echo chamber.

The mods actually deleted the original 1600 comment Hilary wins SC thread due to "title editorialising" Which is not a rule they enforce on any Sanders related link. They're not even attempting to be impartial.

r/politicaldiscussion is OK though.

Echo chamber is right, in that you're hearing the exact same story over and over again.

Actually I take a look at /rSandersforPresident sometimes and while it's very pro-Bernie (imagine!) it doesn't come across as nearly as repetitive. Must have better moderation than the default subreddit.
 

starmud

Member
if the media rolls with rubios dick joke tomorrow morning it's all negative for Rubio. The headlines popping up already make him him look like a joke. Going to this level makes him look desperate and crude. Rubios entire ride is winning the undecided or non committed, he's the presidential one... And he does this?

Challenging an opponents dick size always makes the challenger look weak. in a contest fueled by testosterone, ball grabbing nationalism and making America great; can Rubio make a joke questioning dick size and survive? My life experience with the south and frats says, no. Lol

It's amusing that this is the level of discourse they believe voters want... Speaks volumes on how they see their base and voters in general. Yikes.
 

Cerium

Member
if the media rolls with rubios dick joke tomorrow morning it's all negative for Rubio. The headlines popping up already make him him look like a joke. Going to this level makes him look desperate and crude. Rubios entire ride is winning the undecided or non committed, he's the presidential one... And he does this?

Challenging an opponents dick size always makes the challenger look weak. in a contest fueled by testosterone, ball grabbing nationalism and making America great; can Rubio make a joke questioning dick size and survive? My life experience with the south and frats says, no. Lol

It's amusing that this is the level of discourse they believe voters want... Speaks volumes on how they see their base and voters in general. Yikes.
I'm not sure if it'll help him or hurt him. I could see it going either way when it comes to Republicans.
 

ivysaur12

Banned
Wow wow wow

http://mobile.reuters.com/article/i...c515&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

Reuters) - Backers of Democratic presidential contender Bernie Sanders have launched a campaign to win over some of his rival Hillary Clinton's most prized supporters - the superdelegates that can make the difference in a tight race for the party's nomination.

But some emails, phone messages, and petitions sent by the Sanders boosters have backfired, upsetting superdelegates with their aggressive tone and leading many to dig in their heels for Clinton, according to interviews conducted by Reuters.

The drive to flip Clinton's super delegates has not been sanctioned by Sanders' campaign, his spokesman Michael Briggs said.

Isabel Framer of Ohio, a superdelegate for Clinton, for example, got a voice mail last week urging her to vote for Sanders “in accordance with the will of the people.”

On the voice mail, heard by Reuters, the anonymous male caller says: “I think it’s crap that you get to vote whichever way you want... I’ll be watching your vote.”

“I’m not easily frightened,” Framer told Reuters. “I’m not going to change a vote over threats.”

Luis Heredia, an Arizona superdelegate for Clinton, said he has received over 30 phone calls, emails and instant messages from Sanders supporters. “The majority of them are more angry, and the tone is more demanding,” Heredia said.

Lacy Johnson, an Indiana superdelegate backing Clinton, meanwhile, said he had received a mix of messages, including one that he said threatened: “we will make you pay.”

GG guys
 

danm999

Member
I'm now reading /r SandersforPresident about how they're blind phone banking Massachusetts in response to the last poll that had Clinton up, and the amount of people that are saying they've upset lots of people....

Combined with reading the story Ivy just posted about superdelegates I'm wondering if a lot of the outreach of the more enthusiastic Sanders supporters this primary has had a negative impact.
 

Paskil

Member
I'm now reading /r SandersforPresident about how they're blind phone banking Massachusetts in response to the last poll that had Clinton up, and the amount of people that are saying they've upset lots of people....

Combined with reading the story Ivy just posted about superdelegates I'm wondering if a lot of the outreach of the more enthusiastic Sanders supporters this primary has had a negative impact.

The meltdowns on Tuesday are going to be epic. Especially if Bernie only gets Vermont.

Sanders supporters threatening Clinton supporters... I wonder how much play this would get in OT.

I wonder if anyone has wielded "feel the bern" as an attack. "If you don't vote with the will of the people, I promise that you will feel the bern. We're watching..."
 

People keep making this same elementary mistake over and over again. Attacking, insulting, threatening, etc. somebody will have only two possible results: surrender, or a defensive reaction. It is far more likely that the person will have a defensive reaction and will be entrenched in their beliefs even more strongly than before. Especially when you are talking to a person in a position of power.

Attacks only work on those under you / weaker than you, and even then they will only serve to make them hate you. Attacks are a selfish tactic, and are not a good way to do things when you claim to be championing the cause of the people.
 
I'm now reading /r SandersforPresident about how they're blind phone banking Massachusetts in response to the last poll that had Clinton up, and the amount of people that are saying they've upset lots of people....

Combined with reading the story Ivy just posted about superdelegates I'm wondering if a lot of the outreach of the more enthusiastic Sanders supporters this primary has had a negative impact.

Link?
 

Cerium

Member
I'm now reading /r SandersforPresident about how they're blind phone banking Massachusetts in response to the last poll that had Clinton up, and the amount of people that are saying they've upset lots of people....

Combined with reading the story Ivy just posted about superdelegates I'm wondering if a lot of the outreach of the more enthusiastic Sanders supporters this primary has had a negative impact.

That's what happens when you run a campaign of anger and grievance. You start seeing the people on the other team as enemies, even if you're all in the same party. Obama in 2008 was relentless in running on a positive message.
 

danm999

Member
It's actually making me feel really sad, apart from a few assholes they seem like dedicated people who are swimming against the tide. But I think that desperation is oozing off of them and they won't have a great week.

And fuck some of these stories I've read over the past few weeks about people skipping meals and stuff so they can donate food budgets to the Sanders campaign I hope is just trolling.
 

danm999

Member

https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersFor...r3a/massachusetts_poll_clinton_50_sanders_42/

Just made my first two calls after months of thinking phonebank doesn't work.
First guy hung up on me
Second guy complained it was 9:00pm in boston and he was voting for clinton anyway as a union guy
It's discouraging... but gotta press on

Just got 50 calls there. Most people I talked to weren't home/wrong number, didn't talk to a single sanders supporter, one person told me to "go to hell", another said "I wouldn't vote for him if he was the last person on earth". Idk if theres something wrong with the dialer, but we need to put out a good effort.

:/
 

Ecotic

Member
I really don't know who to vote for tomorrow or have much preference (Georgia here). I'll be all for Hillary in the general, but I've never liked her much and would rather not endorse her in the primary. Then again maybe solidarity behind the nominee is best, I'm no fan of Bernie. Maybe strategically vote for Cruz or Rubio to drag the primary out? Or contribute to the 'Republicans have gone crazy' wave that shocks America when they wake up Wednesday morning to a bowl of cheerios and nominee Trump?
 

Cerium

Member
I really don't know who to vote for tomorrow or have much preference (Georgia here). I'll be all for Hillary in the general, but I've never liked her much and would rather not endorse her in the primary. Then again maybe solidarity behind the nominee is best, I'm no fan of Bernie. Maybe strategically vote for Cruz or Rubio to drag the primary out? Or contribute to the 'Republicans have gone crazy' wave that shocks America when they wake up Wednesday morning to a bowl of cheerios and nominee Trump?

The Dem nomination is effectively locked up at this point.

You could make a difference in the Republican primary. In Georgia a candidate must receive at least 20% of the vote in order to get any delegates; Rubio and Cruz are both hovering around that line. If Trump can shut them out completely he gets all 76 delegates, the second largest prize behind Texas. That would go a long way towards making him inevitable.
 
Legit question:

You can punch that tool or Ted Cruz.

You only get one.

Go.

I don't think there's much I own I wouldn't put on the table for the chance to punch out Mitch McConnell.

I wish I had the foresight to bet on trump back when he lost Iowa. Everybody was terrified besides Cerium back then tho.

That's actually when I doubled down on Trump. I bought about $300 worth of Trump shares at 25c. They got to 55c right before Iowa, then crashed to about 30c afterwards, at which point I maxed out ($850).

Rubio shares did have me shook. He was very upwards sticky and his price rubberbanded worse than Mario Kart AI. The guy went from 20c to 55c for finishing 3rd in Iowa, and he went over 50c again during the South Carolina race while he was neck and neck with Cruz to finish 2nd behind Donald by 10%.
 
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