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[Makai]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/republicans/

Wow, wrecked.

 

[hawk2025]

I VOTED TODAY!

I even got a sticker that states that I did. Voting IRL was painless, and I can't believe I've done nothing but absentee this whole time. Afterwards, met up and talked to some others in the Starbucks near the library, even met some Bernie voters who will vote Trump in general. Had some actual level-headed discussion.

Maybe IRL politics isn't that bad...

MadMaxbait.gif

 

[BoboBrazil]

Catching up, but I'm on-board with this theory. If he turns-in a lukewarm performance on Thursday night, this is his way to manipulate the news again.

If this theory is true, I wonder if the media will ever call him out on this manipulation technique.

He's going to need it for Friday after Cruz, Rubio, and Megyn Fox gang bang him.

 

[Crocodile]

100% agree. Trump is weak but still a bit of a wild card. Cruz is just ridiculous.

I still like the analogy that compared Trump to a "monkey with a gun". It still makes me laugh days later.

 

[RastaMentality]

Lol @ #FreeChrisChristie going viral. He looked awful in that speech.

 

[B-Dubs]

I still like the analogy that compared Trump to a "monkey with a gun". It still makes me laugh days later.

 

[Tarkus]

He's going to need it for Friday after Cruz, Rubio, and Megyn Fox gang bang him.

They can gang bang me if Megan Fox is involved.

 

[Cerium]

even met some Bernie voters who will vote Trump in general.

So basically you met Bernie voters.

 

[Dan]

Have superdelegates ever thrown a Democratic primary race to someone who wasn't leading the pledged delegate count? It seems silly for the media to keep discussing superdelegates as a force that could wrest a primary away from common voters when it's little more than a theoretical possibility.

Classic Hellboy.

 

[Coriolanus]

Meh, the court really needs more diversity outside of just being a women or minority. How about someone who isn't a wealthy Ivy League graduate for once? Pick someone who graduated from Northwestern or a big 10 school or something like that. Not another dull east coast establishment type eww.

Ironically, if memory serves, the only one that i recall defending what you propose is one certain Clarence Thomas.

 

[Drek]

Opposed to every other politician's manipulations, including hillary? Politics is social engineering, nobody but Bernie is really clean.

Bernie Sanders is running in the goddman Democratic Party Primary. In what way is that not a single politician's manipulation of the system? He's put less time in as a registered member of the Democratic Party than Donald Trump.

 

[GregLombardi]

Have superdelegates ever thrown a Democratic primary race to someone who wasn't leading the pledged delegate count? It seems silly for the media to keep discussing superdelegates as a force that could wrest a primary away from common voters when it's little more than a theoretical possibility.


Classic Hellboy.

I don't know the history, but it would be really really dumb for party leaders to vote in favor of the losing candidate unless there was a Trump-esque situation, where the leading candidate was batshit insane and going to ruin human existence if he became President, like Trump will.

 

[Tesseract]

Bernie Sanders is running in the goddman Democratic Party Primary. In what way is that not a single politician's manipulation of the system? He's put less time in as a registered member of the Democratic Party than Donald Trump.

I'm okay with that kinda manipulation, the DNC and dws are skeevy as fuck.

 

[QuiteWhittle]

Bernie Sanders is running in the goddman Democratic Party Primary. In what way is that not a single politician's manipulation of the system? He's put less time in as a registered member of the Democratic Party than Donald Trump.

Didn't he run in the Democratic Primaries for his first election to the Senate just to clear the field and then declined the nomination when he got it? Sanders knows how to play the game.

 

[RastaMentality]

Hannity turns on Rubio:

@MarcACaputo: Rubio World has a new enemy: Sean Hannity. Staffer: "what a fucking asshole. He lets Trump trash everyone for months....
@MarcACaputo: ..."But Marco gives Donald a taste of his own medicine and Hannity gets all offended. He's a pussy and a sellout." Boy, they're angry 2/2

 

[JesseEwiak]

I'm okay with that kinda manipulation, the DNC and dws are skeevy as fuck.

I'd say imploring your lower income base to send you money for a political campaign you know you can't win is pretty skeevy.

 

[BanGy.nz]

Watching the house of cards that is the GOP continue to weaken will never get old.

 

[Tesseract]

I'd say imploring your lower income base to send you money for a political campaign you know you can't win is pretty skeevy.

I am that lower income base, I'm happy to donate to someone with Bernie's integrity.

 

[Snowman Prophet of Doom]

It's not skeevy to run for POTUS using the only mechanisms that have a credible shot of getting you there. I don't consider myself a Democrat and don't care if someone running for the Democratic nomination has "put in their dues". Political parties are tools for action and have no inherent value unto themselves.

 

[JesseEwiak]

I am that lower income base, I'm happy to donate to someone with Bernie's integrity.

The 5 major Media companies thank you for fattening their profit margin.

 

[B-Dubs]

Didn't he run in the Democratic Primaries for his first election to the Senate just to clear the field and then declined the nomination when he got it? Sanders knows how to play the game.

Yep. Acting like he doesn't play the game is just false. The man plays the game.

 

[Gruco]

So, Trump is sitting at roughly 319, and needs 1,237.

Winner take all states:
Florida - 99
Illinois - 69
MO - 52
Ohio - 66
Arizona - 58
Wisconsin - 42
Delaware - 16
Maryland - 38
PA - 71
Indiana - 46
NE - 36
CA - 172
MT - 27
NJ - 51
SD - 29

Winner take Most:
Maine - 23
Idaho - 32
DC - 19
NY - 95
CT - 28

Proportional
KS -40
KY - 46
LA - 46
Hawaii - 19
MI - 59
MS - 40
NC - 55
RI - 19
Oregon - 28
Washington - 44
New Mexico - 24

OK, so back of the envelope. Let's say that Trump gets 1/3 of remaining proportionals. I think that is fairly conservative. So that's +127, for 446.

Now let's assume that he wins heavy in NY, CT, and ME. Maybe he gets 80%. So that's +117, for 562. Again, extremely conservative.

What can we say about winner take alls? He probably wins NJ and DE. Now sitting on 629.

So, under extremely conservative assumptions, he needs another 600 win. Say he wins FL, as polls are suggesting. Down to 500.

Cruz isn't competitive in PA. Is Rubio? I doubt it. Trump probably takes that easily. 430 to go.

At this point, CA becomes a absolute most win for the rest of the GOP. You're really hoping that Rubio suddenly becomes dominant in the midwest, and that Cruz can basically sweep the west. It's still not necessarily a lock because Trump needs to win in areas outside of his hyper dominance, but try making a realistic path for Cruz and Rubio to overtake him. I genuinely don't think it can be done.

 

[royalan]

Have superdelegates ever thrown a Democratic primary race to someone who wasn't leading the pledged delegate count? It seems silly for the media to keep discussing superdelegates as a force that could wrest a primary away from common voters when it's little more than a theoretical possibility.


Classic Hellboy.

I can't help but feel that the media is talking so much about superdelegates because they contrast heavily with what's going on with the Republicans right now.

Superdelegates were created for multiple reasons, protecting your party from being hijacked by a potential demagogue being one of them.

I bet a lot of the Republican establishment is wishing they had a superdelegate system right about now. Lol

 

[Plinko]

So, Trump is sitting at roughly 319, and needs 1,237.

Winner take all states:
Florida - 99
Illinois - 69
MO - 52
Ohio - 66
Arizona - 58
Wisconsin - 42
Delaware - 16
Maryland - 38
PA - 71
Indiana - 46
NE - 36
CA - 172
MT - 27
NJ - 51
SD - 29

Winner take Most:
Maine - 23
Idaho - 32
DC - 19
NY - 95
CT - 28

Proportional
KS -40
KY - 46
LA - 46
Hawaii - 19
MI - 59
MS - 40
NC - 55
RI - 19
Oregon - 28
Washington - 44
New Mexico - 24

OK, so back of the envelope. Let's say that Trump gets 1/3 of remaining proportionals. I think that is fairly conservative. So that's +127, for 446.

Now let's assume that he wins heavy in NY, CT, and ME. Maybe he gets 80%. So that's +117, for 562. Again, extremely conservative.

What can we say about winner take alls? He probably wins NJ and DE. Now sitting on 629.

So, under extremely conservative assumptions, he needs another 600 win. Say he wins FL, as polls are suggesting. Down to 500.

Cruz isn't competitive in PA. Is Rubio? I doubt it. Trump probably takes that easily. 430 to go.

At this point, CA becomes a absolute most win for the rest of the GOP. You're really hoping that Rubio suddenly becomes dominant in the midwest, and that Cruz can basically sweep the west. It's still not necessarily a lock because Trump needs to win in areas outside of his hyper dominance, but try making a realistic path for Cruz and Rubio to overtake him. I genuinely don't think it can be done.

I see zero chance Cruz gets anywhere near what he needs in those states.

 

[Cerium]

So, Trump is sitting at roughly 319, and needs 1,237.

Winner take all states:
Florida - 99
Illinois - 69
MO - 52
Ohio - 66
Arizona - 58
Wisconsin - 42
Delaware - 16
Maryland - 38
PA - 71
Indiana - 46
NE - 36
CA - 172
MT - 27
NJ - 51
SD - 29

Winner take Most:
Maine - 23
Idaho - 32
DC - 19
NY - 95
CT - 28

Proportional
KS -40
KY - 46
LA - 46
Hawaii - 19
MI - 59
MS - 40
NC - 55
RI - 19
Oregon - 28
Washington - 44
New Mexico - 24

OK, so back of the envelope. Let's say that Trump gets 1/3 of remaining proportionals. I think that is fairly conservative. So that's +127, for 446.

Now let's assume that he wins heavy in NY, CT, and ME. Maybe he gets 80%. So that's +117, for 562. Again, extremely conservative.

What can we say about winner take alls? He probably wins NJ and DE. Now sitting on 629.

So, under extremely conservative assumptions, he needs another 600 win. Say he wins FL, as polls are suggesting. Down to 500.

Cruz isn't competitive in PA. Is Rubio? I doubt it. Trump probably takes that easily. 430 to go.

At this point, CA becomes a absolute most win for the rest of the GOP. You're really hoping that Rubio suddenly becomes dominant in the midwest, and that Cruz can basically sweep the west. It's still not necessarily a lock because Trump needs to win in areas outside of his hyper dominance, but try making a realistic path for Cruz and Rubio to overtake him. I genuinely don't think it can be done.

In one of the only good things they've done this year, 538 has drawn up an elaborate chart projecting each candidate's path to the nomination by date and target delegate count. Trump is the only one ahead of the count, everyone else is behind.

 

[Tesseract]

The 5 major Media companies thank you for fattening their profit margin.

That's unavoidable, you have to play the game when your opponent is corporate media's darling. Better to do it the honest way, all the way to the top.

 

[Box of Kittens]

Have superdelegates ever thrown a Democratic primary race to someone who wasn't leading the pledged delegate count? It seems silly for the media to keep discussing superdelegates as a force that could wrest a primary away from common voters when it's little more than a theoretical possibility.

Under the modern nomination system, i.e. since 1972, the Democratic nomination has always gone to the candidate who won the most pledged delegates.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

So, Trump is sitting at roughly 319, and needs 1,237.

Winner take all states:
Florida - 99
Illinois - 69
MO - 52
Ohio - 66

Moving Ohio and Florida to winner take all is going to give Trump the nom. L O L

 

[eBay Huckster]

Have superdelegates ever thrown a Democratic primary race to someone who wasn't leading the pledged delegate count? It seems silly for the media to keep discussing superdelegates as a force that could wrest a primary away from common voters when it's little more than a theoretical possibility.

I mean, superdelegates have only been a thing since the party adopted the Hunt Commission's recommendation in 1982. That's only nine possible elections (including this one)! (And 2008 was the only one of those where superdelegates throwing it could've realistically happened.)

 

[Makai]

1337 delegates

 

[Tesseract]

If superdelegates cheat, the matrix will collapse.

 

[Cerium]

Moving Ohio and Florida to winner take all is going to give Trump the nom. L O L

The only one of those I'd really be concerned about is Ohio and maybe Missouri? I don't know enough about Missouri.

 

[Dan]

I don't know the history, but it would be really really dumb for party leaders to vote in favor of the losing candidate unless there was a Trump-esque situation, where the leading candidate was batshit insane and going to ruin human existence if he became President, like Trump will.

Most definitely. It's locked behind glass labeled 'in case of emergency'. It's basically a nuclear option.

I can't help but feel that the media is talking so much about superdelegates because they contrast heavily with what's going on with the Republicans right now.

Superdelegates were created for multiple reasons, protecting your party from being hijacked by a potential demagogue being one of them.

I bet a lot of the Republican establishment is wishing they had a superdelegate system right about now. Lol

Yeah, I'm sure the GOP wished they could pull a ripcord before they hit terminal velocity.

I was kinda perplexed to see Marketplace run a piece about campaign contributions potentially controlling superdelegates. It seems like passive fear-mongering. Wake me up when they steal a primary away.

 

[A Human Becoming]

He had a similar lead in Virginia and look what happened there how it ended up very very close.

Second place is worthless in winner-take-all.

 

[hawk2025]

That's unavoidable, you have to play the game when your opponent is corporate media's darling. Better to do it the honest way, all the way to the top.

Look at it this way:

Since your opponent is apparently "corporate media's darling", your money is just going to end up as GE donations for her, so it's definitely not gone to waste!

 

[gutter_trash]

So, Trump is sitting at roughly 319, and needs 1,237.

Winner take all states:
Florida - 99
Illinois - 69
MO - 52
Ohio - 66
Arizona - 58
Wisconsin - 42
Delaware - 16
Maryland - 38
PA - 71
Indiana - 46
NE - 36
CA - 172
MT - 27
NJ - 51
SD - 29

Winner take Most:
Maine - 23
Idaho - 32
DC - 19
NY - 95
CT - 28

Proportional
KS -40
KY - 46
LA - 46
Hawaii - 19
MI - 59
MS - 40
NC - 55
RI - 19
Oregon - 28
Washington - 44
New Mexico - 24

OK, so back of the envelope. Let's say that Trump gets 1/3 of remaining proportionals. I think that is fairly conservative. So that's +127, for 446.

Now let's assume that he wins heavy in NY, CT, and ME. Maybe he gets 80%. So that's +117, for 562. Again, extremely conservative.

What can we say about winner take alls? He probably wins NJ and DE. Now sitting on 629.

So, under extremely conservative assumptions, he needs another 600 win. Say he wins FL, as polls are suggesting. Down to 500.

Cruz isn't competitive in PA. Is Rubio? I doubt it. Trump probably takes that easily. 430 to go.

At this point, CA becomes a absolute most win for the rest of the GOP. You're really hoping that Rubio suddenly becomes dominant in the midwest, and that Cruz can basically sweep the west. It's still not necessarily a lock because Trump needs to win in areas outside of his hyper dominance, but try making a realistic path for Cruz and Rubio to overtake him. I genuinely don't think it can be done.

I see Trump nabbing for sure:
Florida - 99
Arizona - 58
Delaware - 16
PA - 71
NJ - 51
Maine - 23
NY - 95
CT - 28
RI - 19

 

[Kusagari]

So for the best chance of stopping Trump they need Kasich and Rubio to win FL/OH?

Is just winning one enough to stop him in any sensible delegate math?

 

[Makai]

Second place is worthless in winner-take-all.

No, no. Rubio will have momentum aftera strong second place finish in the California primary.

 

[eBay Huckster]

Second place is worthless in winner-take-all.

I mean, true, but VA wasn't one of those.

 

[QuiteWhittle]

I don't know the history, but it would be really really dumb for party leaders to vote in favor of the losing candidate unless there was a Trump-esque situation, where the leading candidate was batshit insane and going to ruin human existence if he became President, like Trump will.

Also in case of scandal. Imagine if John Edwards had won enough pledged delegates to win the nomination lol

 

[B-Dubs]

So for the best chance of stopping Trump they need Kasich and Rubio to win FL/OH?

Is just winning one enough to stop him in any sensible delegate math?

Probably not.

 

[Cerium]

Look at it this way:

Since your opponent is apparently "corporate media's darling", your money is just going to end up as GE donations for her, so it's definitely not gone to waste!

I LOVE that Bernie is outspending Clinton and getting jack shit for it. He's spending four times as much as Trump with a fraction of the results.

He wanted to prove that money equals votes. He was wrong.

The Jeb Bush of the left.

What a mess. What a waste. What a big fat mess.

 

[WaffleTaco]

Watching the house of cards that is the GOP continue to weaken will never get old.

I still need to finish season 3...but I just know that season 4 will never be as good as what is happening currently...in alternate reality what is happening this election...would make for some great television. It also makes me sad to think that this will probably the greatest election in my life.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Little Marco isn't winning anything. Toast.

HRC's fundraising was higher than I expected, I thought she'd be embarrassed by being outraised 2:1. Cash on hand is $31MM, which means spending was about $32MM or about 7% over raised.

Curious what Sanders cash burn was in Feb.

Cruz raised $12MM and Carson $5MM. But no reporting of cash on hand either.

 

[Cerium]

I still need to finish season 3...but I just know that season 4 will never be as good as what is happening currently...in alternate reality what is happening this election...would make for some great television. It also makes me sad to think that this will probably the greatest election in my life.

I eagerly await the HBO series for Game Change 2016.

 

[CCS]

Marco. He's a little man. A little man from Florida. They don't even like him down there. He's too weak. Goes into a meeting with Putin, comes out in pieces. Can't trust a man like that. A real choke artist too.

 

[Makai]

Everyone's path to the nomination on 538 includes winning both Florida and Ohio.

 

[dabig2]

I LOVE that Bernie is outspending Clinton and getting jack shit for it. He's spending four times as much as Trump with a fraction of the results.

He wanted to prove that money equals votes. He was wrong.

The Jeb Bush of the left.

What a mess. What a waste. What a big fat mess.

Damn. He's Ron Paul then Ted Cruz then Trump and now Jeb Bush? According to you guys, Bernie is the most schizophrenic guy in the race today.

 

[Plinko]

I wouldn't be so sure about Trump taking Florida.

 

[Kangi]

Damn. He's Ron Paul then Ted Cruz then Trump and now Jeb Bush? According to you guys, Bernie is the most schizophrenic guy in the race today.

He has the support base of Ron Paul, the delegate math challenges of Ted Cruz, the anti-establishment appeal of Trump, and the money-wasting capabilities of Jeb!

Bernie's a mess.

*horn*