Support NeoGAF

[Jarmel]

This debate tonight is going to be legendary. All the knives are coming out. All of them.

 

[Y2Kev]

Are we shook about tonight? I was so shook last time, for some reason I feel fine even w Kelly

I'm less shook than last time. I think I spent all my shook last week. Literally I cannot even imagine how this debate will go. Rubio coming out swinging will be hilarious considering his complete flop on Super Tuesday.

Everything is a disaster.

Y2kev please, the real enemy is christie in all of this don't take it out on us stupid, youthful idealists.

I like Bernie and I'm ok with his normal fans. Some people are just delusional and annoying and I hate wasting time. Time is money (which I have a lot of) so let's dispense with this notion that this cutesy primary is still on. Biden is the nominee.

 

[Oltsu]

Fox people got their memos saying that they should lay off trump. Don't worry.

Also

*tinfoil hat on*

GOP establishment has some super secret polling data telling them that they can mobilize demographic X by making it seem like they're bypassing democracy and if they turn around at the last minute and seem like humble good guys after a good fight the momentum will give them the GE.

*tinfoil off*

 

[Macho Madness]

Fox people got their memos saying that they should lay off trump. Don't worry.

Also

*tinfoil hat on*

GOP establishment has some super secret polling data telling them that they can mobilize demographic X by making it seem like they're bypassing democracy and if they turn around at the last minute and seem like humble good guys after a good fight the momentum will give them the GE.

*tinfoil off*

How do you even poll that? I think you're overestimating the GOP.

 

[Suikoguy]

How do you even poll that? I think you're overestimating the GOP.

It's seriously not worth the risk.

 

[NeoXChaos]

not everyone at "that" site is like the extreme.

I mean you don't even need to go that far, just look at Obama v Hillary in 2008.
Not only did Obama lose Texas, Mass. and Nevada on Super Tuesday, he ends up losing Cali, NY, Florida, and Michigan to Hillary. And he STILL WINS. Hillary is actually outperforming Obama at this point and she's projected to win Michigan, Ohio, and Florida as well. At this point the math is really against Bernie. And I don't think being unrealistic about his chances helps him at all because it leads to complacency.

I keep hearing that it is going to get easier for Sanders. I present a fact based counterpoint.
LA: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/louisiana-democratic/
MI:http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/michigan-democratic/
Mississippi:http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/mississippi-democratic/
Florida: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/florida-democratic/
Illinois: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/illinois-democratic/
Nc: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/north-carolina-democratic/
Ohio: http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/ohio-democratic/

 

[shinra-bansho]

Lightweight reporter Megyn Kelly is really the only person who's managed to do anything to Trump.

Draft Megyn Kelly.

by 2024 millennials will make up roughly half the electorate

I know there's data to suggest an ingrained voting pattern, based on experiences in formative years.

But I don't know why people assume that views on particular issues won't change in 8 years time. People are self-interested as voters ultimately.

I imagine an 18 year old's priorities (or lack thereof) are markedly different than a 26 year old's. While the older end of Millennials will be in their mid 40s.

 

[Gruco]

Part of me still thinks this is all too perfect and Trump could screw it up. Either at the debate tonight or elsewhere...I just have this illogical fear it's all going to come crashing down for him.

We're truly on the verge of history. The short term implosion of a political party. I just can't believe it, even as it's happening.

We're very, very close. Close enough to taste. I have the same fear. Things are escalating against Trump, from the party and the media. Even as Fox news seems to be rallying around him. I know, I know "this is the thing that finally ends Donald Trump's presidential campaign."

We may actually already be across the finish line and not quite realize it. Even if something finally does deflate Trump, he has enough of a passionate base, and his opposition is so fucked that he'd still wind up with a plurality.

If the GOP shadow campaign wins, we win. If the GOP shadow campaign fails, we win.

I think that's true, but I can't quite bring myself to believe this is real life.

 

[Cat]

Do Democratic primaries and caucuses have shitty voter ID laws?

I don't know much about the others, but Texas' voter ID law is really terrible. It's stuff like if you have a concealed handgun license, you can vote but a student ID won't do. It disenfranchises over 500,000 voters. The really unreasonable and ignorant thing, coming from Moore here, is that even places like Ohio have been working on laws that also disenfranchise, like cutting times for when early voting can be done.

https://twitter.com/NatashaLDF/status/704790625745408000

Plus, telling the people who DID vote, such as myself, how worthless our votes are, is well...not appreciated at all.

 

[Cheebo]

Part of me still thinks this is all too perfect and Trump could screw it up. Either at the debate tonight or elsewhere...I just have this illogical fear it's all going to come crashing down for him.

We're truly on the verge of history. The short term implosion of a political party. I just can't believe it, even as it's happening.

I keep thinking that too. Trump will fuck it up at some point. He has been just far too lucky this long. And let's not forget the guy is an idiot. Beyond stupid. And his campaign is ran by d-rate rejects.

It's a risk and will remain one.

 

[Macho Madness]

What's hilarious to me is that report that says his campaign has no clue about delegate math but it doesn't matter.

 

[Oltsu]

How do you even poll that? I think you're overestimating the GOP.

Nah, Karl Rove is their secret weapon.

The dark pollster and master of predictions.

 

[ugaboga232]

I'm less shook than last time. I think I spent all my shook last week. Literally I cannot even imagine how this debate will go. Rubio coming out swinging will be hilarious considering his complete flop on Super Tuesday.

Everything is a disaster.



I like Bernie and I'm ok with his normal fans. Some people are just delusional and annoying and I hate wasting time. Time is money (which I have a lot of) so let's dispense with this notion that this cutesy primary is still on. Biden is the nominee.

Some of us new jerseyians aren't fabulously wealthy we have time to burn (at least I do before i start my phd). I do agree that its all over already though its nice to see hillary promise some more things that would be good.

 

[Cheebo]

What's hilarious to me is that report that says his campaign has no clue about delegate math but it doesn't matter.

That's what is remarkable about this. It's not like he is a blowhard with a strong campaign. He is a blowhard with a campaign ran by people who have no clue what doing.

A terrible candidate and a terrible campaign staff. And he is still winning.

 

[Basileus777]

What's hilarious to me is that report that says his campaign has no clue about delegate math but it doesn't matter.

It doesn't matter if you're not actually trying to win the nomination.

Edit: Oh, you meant Trump.

 

[Kusagari]

Jeffrey Lord on CNN comparing Trump's establishment fight with Goldwater in 64.

 

[ugaboga232]

Lightweight reporter Megyn Kelly is really the only person who's managed to do anything to Trump.

Draft Megyn Kelly.


I know there's data to suggest an ingrained voting pattern, based on experiences in formative years.

But I don't know why people assume that views on particular issues won't change in 8 years time. People are self-interested as voters ultimately.

I imagine an 18 year old's priorities (or lack thereof) are markedly different than a 26 year old's. While the older end of Millennials will be in their mid 40s.

The data suggests heavily that liberals stay liberal and conservatives stay conservative (contrary to popular belief). Humans are gonna human and that means not being perfectly "rational"

 

[BoboBrazil]

Trump needs to dump some money into Florida on ads. Rubio superpacs are dumping 25 million into anti Trump ads in the state and Rubio's spending the next 2 weeks there.

 

[Elaugaufein]

So for people not deep in the Hillary camp what's the over/under on 100-post pages before someone in this thread claims Trump is a better person than Sanders ?

 

[Suikoguy]

The data suggests heavily that liberals stay liberal and conservatives stay conservative (contrary to popular belief). Humans are gonna human and that means not being perfectly "rational"

But don't worry, the Free Market will save us being run by Rational Humans!

 

[neurosisxeno]

So for people not deep in the Hillary camp what's the over/under on 100-post pages before someone in this thread claims Trump is a better person than Sanders ?

I reject a reality where that claim has any legitimacy.

 

[NeoXChaos]

1 more day till I can vote against wacko bernie.

 

[Basileus777]

So for people not deep in the Hillary camp what's the over/under on 100-post pages before someone in this thread claims Trump is a better person than Sanders ?

That has already happened. We had the "at least Trump is honest unlike that scoundrel Sanders" thing a while back.

 

[maximum360]

Hillary is getting indicted. I heard it on morning Joe. Mika also sounded VERY CONCERNED












ANDREAMITCHELL

*runs out of room*

I haven't watched the show in years until briefly this morning while channel surfing. Joe just happened to be talking about the emails. I could only tolerate about 30 seconds before I was on to the next channel.

 

[shinra-bansho]

The data suggests heavily that liberals stay liberal and conservatives stay conservative (contrary to popular belief). Humans are gonna human and that means not being perfectly "rational"

Well, for one thing Millennials are stupid and inconsistent in their views anyway.

But the study, which I've already noted, is about voting patterns. Democrat, Republican.

I'm speaking to individual issues. Healthcare, taxes, trade, education policies, and so on and so forth. Some of which, I would imagine views will not change much. But not all.

 

[Elaugaufein]

That has already happened. We had the "at least Trump is honest unlike that scoundrel Sanders" thing a while back.

I must have wisely decided not to read this thread that day since I missed that.

 

[Cerium]

So for people not deep in the Hillary camp what's the over/under on 100-post pages before someone in this thread claims Trump is a better person than Sanders ?

vicissitudes and huelen already made that argument about Hillary.

I'm sure the majority of Bernie bros agree with them.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=189281444&postcount=2538
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=189290120&postcount=2556

Exactly. It's so ridiculous when Bernie supporters are mocked for defending Trump, when Trump is a lot more similar to Bernie than Hillary is in many ways.

Honesty:
- Bernie is honest and believes in his convictions, even if politically unpopular
- Trump is honest and believes in his convictions, even if politically unpopular
- Hillary is dishonest and take positions when politically expedient

Outsider:
- Bernie has not been part of either establishment party for the past ~30 years and only recently started to caucus with Democrats
- Trump has not been part of either establishment party for the past ~30 years and only recently joined the Republican party
- Hillary has been a Democrat since her college days and is seen as a lifelong establishment Democrat

Funding:
- Bernie is not taking any PAC money and relies on small donations, does not cater to lobbyists
- Trump is not taking any PAC money and is self-funding, does not cater to lobbyists
- Hillary has been taking huge sums of PAC money, is friendly with Wall Street and big banks

Endorsements:
- Bernie has almost no endorsements, relying on strong polling in early states and caters to the people
- Trump has almost no endorsements, relying on strong polling in early states and caters to the people
- Hillary has an overwhelming number of endorsements, giving the appearance of a "coronation" which is off-putting to most

Ideology:
- Bernie proposes more extreme, radical ideas which represent real change and energizes the base, bringing out huge numbers and rallies
- Trump proposes more extreme, radical ideas which represent real change and energizes the base, bringing out huge numbers and rallies
- Hillary proposes middling, "me-too" compromises which excites no one

If you are a Bernie supporter, purely logically speaking, Trump is clearly the #2 choice if Bernie does not get win the primaries, with Hillary a distance 3rd.

 

[Plinko]

Jeffrey Lord on CNN comparing Trump's establishment fight with Goldwater in 64.

Initially read this as "Goldeneye 64." Now THAT is a comparison I need to see.

 

[ugaboga232]

Well, for one thing Millennials are stupid and inconsistent in their views anyway.

But the study, which I've already noted, is about voting patterns. Democrat, Republican.

I'm speaking to individual issues. Healthcare, taxes, trade, education policies, and so on and so forth. Some of which, I would imagine views will not change much.

Aren't we all stupid? Sorry to misunderstand. I do think things will start changing faster and faster as the pace of crazy and weird and society changing technology (like the internet) picks up in the coming decades and then things will get really weird.


Can we stop crapping on the other posters for their candidate of choice? It's one thing to criticize dumb policy of which bernie and hillary and trump all have their fair share (hillary has the least, even as a bernie "bro") and another to assume every is a bernie bro or a hillarystan or whatever we call each other nowadays.

 

[Roland_Gunner]

Now a Republican staffer with ties to Adelson is launching a draft Ryan SuperPac. The convention could be the craziest thing since I've started following politics. Kinda hoping Trump gets like 49% of the delegates so we can see if the GOP has the stones to block him.

http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box...-super-pac-forms-to-push-ryan-white-house-run

 

[A Human Becoming]

2016 Election

1) Jeb raises $150 mil, scares Romney out of the race, fails miserably.
2) Media and GOP elites spend a solid 5-6 months actively trying to make "the Rubio thing" happen. Fail miserably.
3) The front runner, a loudmouth buffoon with no political experience, was dismissed as irrelevant for 7 months.
4) Only credible opponent of said buffoon is hated by literally everyone.
5) Country realizes Drumpf is actually winning, and also that Drumpf is Hitler. Panic!
6) Rule changes designed to make the primary healthier for the party make Drumpf borderline unstoppable.
7) GOP realizes that because of their new rules and all the time they wasted on making "the Rubio thing" happen, they have a knife-edge scenario where they can actually stop Drumpf.
8) This involves actively destroying the party. Proceed anyway.
9) Recruit wise party elder Romney for shadow campaign against presumptive nominee. Profit.

Democrats in disarray, am I right?!

Hasn't anyone of actual importance ever said the Democrats are in disarray?

1 more day till I can vote against wacko bernie.

 

[RustyNails]

We're very, very close. Close enough to taste. I have the same fear. Things are escalating against Trump, from the party and the media. Even as Fox news seems to be rallying around him. I know, I know "this is the thing that finally ends Donald Trump's presidential campaign."

We may actually already be across the finish line and not quite realize it. Even if something finally does deflate Trump, he has enough of a passionate base, and his opposition is so fucked that he'd still wind up with a plurality.

If the GOP shadow campaign wins, we win. If the GOP shadow campaign fails, we win.

I think that's true, but I can't quite bring myself to believe this is real life.

The fears are baseless. Only Trump can destroy Trump. He came close a few days ago with the KKK debacle. But only he has the power to kill his campaign, not Rubio, RNC or Romney.

The Frank Luntz Expedition: Luntz conducted two focus group tests with mild Trump supporters. He then played an hour's worth of attacks and ad campaigns against Trump. When he re-gauged their interest after the test, their support for Trump increased dramatically. He couldnt explain it.

Another report out of Illinois recently: a Rubio delegate tried to convince Trump supporters to switch sides. He talked to dozens and dozens. He couldn't switch a single one.

There is no stopping Trump. Trump is immortal to them. Donald Trump is the most powerful Republican in the world right now.

 

[HylianTom]

We're very, veryWe may actually already be across the finish line and not quite realize it. Even if something finally does deflate Trump, he has enough of a passionate base, and his opposition is so fucked that he'd still wind up with a plurality.

If the GOP shadow campaign wins, we win. If the GOP shadow campaign fails, we win.

I think that's true, but I can't quite bring myself to believe this is real life.

That's been my conclusion for a while. If Trump loses the nomination somehow, his base will see the winner has having won the nomination through underhanded tactics - i.e., the party will have "stolen" it from him. There's no shortage of evidence at this point that forces have aligned against him in a way that we've never ever seen for any other GOP frontrunner.

And if Trump wins the nomination, they're stuck with an electorally doomed madman.

Either way is win-win. Even if both sides of this divide recover their sense of loyalty to whomever the ticket is, there will be a hardcore sliver on either side who refuse to get over the outcome. And in an era where the GOP's electoral/demographic math has to be near-perfect (while the Dem's math has to be merely "good"), that's fatal.

It's a large part of why I'm not diablosing cartoon_soldiering very much over the Democratic side of things. To borrow a quote from Peter MacNicol's character in Ghostbusters 2: "She is Hilldawg! You are like de buzzing of flies to her!"

 

[Basileus777]

We're already crossed the line where even if Trump blows it, no one else has a path to a majority of delegates. The damage has been done.

 

[PBY]

Damn I think I jumped the gun on this wine. Bout to be turnt af for this debate.

 

[Atomic Playboy]

Initially read this as "Goldeneye 64." Now THAT is a comparison I need to see.

That would explain Trump's hair.

 

[Basileus777]

Lindsey Graham

Lindsey Graham has had some harsh words for Donald Trump, but that doesn’t mean he thinks a brokered convention would be fair to the Republican frontrunner.

In an interview with former Obama adviser David Axelrod on his podcast “The Axe Files,” Graham said a fractured nomination process also wouldn’t be good for the GOP.

“If he got two-thirds of what he needs, which I think he's well on his way to doing, for us to steal from him is not going to help the party," he said in the interview, which was recorded before Trump's Super Tuesday rout and Mitt Romney's fiery speech against the real estate mogul on Thursday.

But he was sure to add that he didn't think Trump’s candidacy will be good for the Republican party. “Our party is about to fall apart,” he warned.

“You can lose an election. We've lost an election before. But what I'm trying to do is focus on the day after we lose,” he said. “Can we rebuild this party? Can we create a form of conservatism that's enticing to young people and people of color? I think we can. And I think that's the only hope for the Republican Party and, quite frankly, one of the big hopes of this country."

I wonder how many people will really have the stomach to follow through with a brokered convention or 3rd party run knowing it would destroy the party. Talking about it in March is a lot different from actually doing it.

 

[BoboBrazil]

A brokered convention is the dumbest thing ever. Do they seriously think Trump wouldn't run independent? He would beat their chosen one.

 

[BreezyLimbo]

I fucking Love trump and what he's doing to the GOP.

Has any other election been this insane in the past 30 years?

 

[PBY]

Trump def the type of dude to run 3rd party only to fuck you over.

Which is wild because if he were to go 3rd party he'd think he had a chance to win.

 

[Basileus777]

I fucking Love trump and what he's doing to the GOP.

Has any other election been this insane in the past 30 years?

Since 86? No way.

 

[Elaugaufein]

Lindsey Graham


I wonder how many people will really have the stomach to follow through with a brokered convention or 3rd party run knowing it would destroy the party. Talking about it in March is a lot different from actually doing it.

The issue is whether or not falling in behind Trump would destroy their party more. And it's a really hard call to make.

Also I feel kind of sorry for Lindsey Graham, he's being far more realistic than most of the Republican talking heads about the entire situation but he's stuck in a boat with them.

A brokered convention is the dumbest thing ever. Do they seriously think Trump wouldn't run independent? He would beat their chosen one.

Assuming rational (haha) voters , no he probably wouldn't. Trump's running at a bit under 50% of the Republican Primary electorate. The GOP candidate would pick up at least the other 50% and probably most of the Independent not-Clinton vote.

In practice, yeah Trump probably would destroy their chosen one because he'd have the R after his name and that's what people actually vote for.

 

[User 463088]

Damn I think I jumped the gun on this wine. Bout to be turnt af for this debate.

I mixed wine and vodka.

It was disgusting. I could only get two glasses down.

 

[HylianTom]

I fucking Love trump and what he's doing to the GOP.

Has any other election been this insane in the past 30 years?

Nowhere near. Even 1992 and 2008 fall short.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Aren't we all stupid? Sorry to misunderstand. I do think things will start changing faster and faster as the pace of crazy and weird and society changing technology (like the internet) picks up in the coming decades and then things will get really weird.

I have a low opinion of my own generational cohort. Because they're dumb.

Millennial politics is simple, really. Young people support big government, unless it costs any more money. They're for smaller government, unless budget cuts scratch a program they've heard of. They'd like Washington to fix everything, just so long as it doesn't run anything.

...when Millennials start making serious dough. They start getting much more squeamish about giving it away.

You get the sense, reading the Reason Foundation and Pew studies, that a savvy pollster could trick a young person into supporting basically any economic policy in the world with the right combination of triggers.

Forty-two percent of Millennials think socialism is preferable to capitalism, but only 16 percent of Millennials could accurately define socialism.

#FOMO #listicle #hashtag

 

[jiggle]

The chaos will be positively delicious if trump were to get 1237 and they still deny him the crown

 

[Basileus777]

I have a low opinion of my own generational cohort. Because they're dumb.

That sounds like every generation in this country.

 

[PBY]

I mixed wine and vodka.

It was disgusting. I could only get two glasses down.

White I'm assuming?

Wow that sounds disgusting.

 

[Tarkus]

I mixed wine and vodka.

It was disgusting. I could only get two glasses down.

I mixed craft beer and cheap liquor. It was disgusting, but I'm fucked.

 

[User 463088]

White I'm assuming?

Wow that sounds disgusting.

Ya I'm white.

Edit: Oh? The wine? Red. lol