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[User 463088]

Someone asked about delegates earlier and what he'd need from here on out.

Currently it stands at:

Hillary 671
Bernie 476

Using the best polling I could find for Bernie in Mississippi and Michigan, I have them each gaining the following number of delegates on the 8th. (this would require Bernie to out perform the polling average in MI by 10 points)

Hillary 97
Bernie 69

Then on the 15th, I gave Bernie the win in Ohio and a win in Missouri. Everywhere else, I used the best polling for Bernie, and gave him every single undecided voter in every single contest. This would be Hillary's support in Florida and Illinois completely falling out. Like, Bernie's best possible outcome other than Hillary starting to serve her jail term.

Hillary 384
Bernie 294

This would leave us:

Hillary 1152
Bernie 839

For a lead of 313

With Supers:

Hillary: 1610
Bernie 861

There will be 2020 delegates left after the 15th.

Bernie needs 1544 more delegates to win (counting only pledged). 1522 w.supers
Hillary needs 1231 more delegates to win (counting only pledged). 773 w. supers

Hillary would need approximately 38% of all remaining delegates to win with her Super Delegates.
Bernie would need approximately 76% of all remaining delegates to win with his Super Delegates.

Because of how it's setup, neither can win without some super delegates, I don't think. Even 2004 that wasn't super contested required supers to put Kerry over the top, I believe.

(This is all really rough and lacks a lot of polling. Just a thought exercise. I"ll do it again before the 15th when we have good polling data.)

 

[danm999]

"Bernie, what do you think of K-12 schooling?"

"Free college education from taxing the billionaires from Wall Street!"

That answer was very jarring given she was asking about public schools full of rats falling apart. She said she was leaning Sanders I wouldn't be surprised if that had changed.

 

[RastaMentality]

I wonder if a pretty Ted Cruz that oozes charisma (and managed to actually make friends in Washington) could do damage even with the same set of views and policy points Ted has.

 

[Macho Madness]

Oh, f me, D'souza made a Hillary movie.

I saw the trailer. Lmao.

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

I wonder if a pretty Ted Cruz that oozes charisma (and managed to actually make friends in Washington) could do damage even with the same set of views and policy points Ted has.

I mean, that's Rubio with a pro-dictator foreign policy, a more regressive tax plan, and more hate towards immigrants.

Maybe? Maybe not.

 

[Wilsongt]

North Korea is trying to wave its dick again saying it's going to hit the US and S. Korea with nukes

 

[Macho Madness]

North Korea is trying to wave its dick again saying it's going to hit the US and S. Korea with nukes

Yes and I'm going to bed. It's late. Maybe North Korea should try sleeping sometime. Maybe they'd be less grumpy.

 

[User 463088]

Maybe they should eat a Snickers?

 

[Wilsongt]

Yes and I'm going to bed. It's late. Maybe North Korea should try sleeping sometime. Maybe they'd be less grumpy.

It's probably grumpy because it doesn't have much to wave around/

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

It's probably grumpy because it doesn't have much to wave around/

Un and Trump (or Trump and Erdogan or Trump and Putin) arguing over who has the bigger dick would be amazing if thousands couldn't die as a result of the arguments.

 

[brainchild]

North Korea is trying to wave its dick again saying it's going to hit the US and S. Korea with nukes

LMAO

 

[ItWasMeantToBe19]

Dating a woman with PTSD makes me hope that trigger warnings become standard in TV moving forward.

 

[shinra-bansho]

To be honest I don't understand the outrage on bernie's position on immunity, you can use that same logic on alcohol distributors and anyone who makes anything that could be used as a weapon.

Also AR-15's aren't automatic to the best of my knowledge.

Why are you basically parroting NRA style talking points? It's not anything that can be used as a weapon. It's not a car or a hammer or a screwdriver. It's a weapon.

 

[CCS]

Eesh, sounds like Sanders was kind of a mess at the debate.

 

[Makai]

Dating a woman with PTSD makes me hope that trigger warnings become standard in TV moving forward.

That would destroy spoiler-centric shows!

 

[Makai]

Why?

To annoy you. You.

 

[User 463088]

Eesh, sounds like Sanders was kind of a mess at the debate.

: wags finger in your face :

To annoy you. You.

Awwww. I feel special.

 

[daedalius]

Someone asked about delegates earlier and what he'd need from here on out.

Currently it stands at:

Hillary 671
Bernie 476

Using the best polling I could find for Bernie in Mississippi and Michigan, I have them each gaining the following number of delegates on the 8th. (this would require Bernie to out perform the polling average in MI by 10 points)

Hillary 97
Bernie 69

Then on the 15th, I gave Bernie the win in Ohio and a win in Missouri. Everywhere else, I used the best polling for Bernie, and gave him every single undecided voter in every single contest. This would be Hillary's support in Florida and Illinois completely falling out. Like, Bernie's best possible outcome other than Hillary starting to serve her jail term.

Hillary 384
Bernie 294

This would leave us:

Hillary 1152
Bernie 839

For a lead of 313

With Supers:

Hillary: 1610
Bernie 861

There will be 2020 delegates left after the 15th.

Bernie needs 1544 more delegates to win (counting only pledged). 1522 w.supers
Hillary needs 1231 more delegates to win (counting only pledged). 773 w. supers

Hillary would need approximately 38% of all remaining delegates to win with her Super Delegates.
Bernie would need approximately 76% of all remaining delegates to win with his Super Delegates.

Because of how it's setup, neither can win without some super delegates, I don't think. Even 2004 that wasn't super contested required supers to put Kerry over the top, I believe.

(This is all really rough and lacks a lot of polling. Just a thought exercise. I"ll do it again before the 15th when we have good polling data.)

So you're saying there's a chance...

No, it really doesn't sound like there is a chance.

 

[Spoiled Milk]

So you're saying there's a chance...

No, it really doesn't sound like there is a chance.

 

[User 463088]

 

[sc0la]

Maybe they should eat a Snickers?

I... This would make a great commercial.

Transform Kim Jong Un into a middle school kid in Model UN.

 

[Tesseract]

Queen preaches love and kindness, I don't believe it. I don't hear it in her voice, see'nt her mannerisms. She sounds like a hawk squawking at squirrel. Bernie is like a fuzzy Jew bear grandpa Rick from Rick and Morty and Larry David..

Bernie is literally the only favorable candidate running, and Americans have elected the most optimistic president since 1972.

 

[danm999]

Queen preaches love and kindness, I don't believe it. I don't hear it in her voice, see'nt her mannerisms. She sounds like a hawk squawking at squirrel. Bernie is like a fuzzy Jew bear grandpa Rick from Rick and Morty and Larry David..

Bernie is literally the only favorable candidate running, and Americans have elected the most optimistic president since 1972.

 

[RastaMentality]

Went onto Facebook to find that a Spanish teacher from my former Christian middle school is an ardent Trump/Cruz supporter who believes that moderate republicans will never win. Amazing stuff.

 

[User 463088]

There was something that stuck out to me about that race question in the debate. I couldn't figure out what it was, so I pulled the transcript.

n a speech about policing, the FBI director James Comey borrowed a phrase saying, “everyone is a little bit racist.” What racial blind spot do you have? Secretary, you first.

Here's Hillary's answer:

Well, Don, if I could, I think being a white person in the United States of America, I know that I have never had the experience that so many people, the people in this audience have had. And I think it’s incumbent upon me and what I have been trying to talk about during this campaign is to urge white people to think about what it is like to have “the talk” with your kids, scared that your sons or daughters, even, could get in trouble for no good reason whatsoever like Sandra Bland and end up dead in a jail in Texas.

And I have spent a lot of time with the mothers of African-American children who have lost them, Trayvon Martin’s mother. And I’ve gotten to know them. I’ve listened to them. And it has been incredibly humbling because I can’t pretend to have the experience that you have had and others have had. But I will do everything that I possibly can to not only do the best to understand and to empathize, but to tear down the barriers of systemic racism that are in the criminal justice system, in the employment system, in the education and health care system.

Notice the use of "I" throughout the whole thing. "I can't pretend to have the experience...

Then Bernie's answer, after the stories he shares

So to answer your question, I would say, and I think it’s similar to what the secretary said, when you’re white, you don’t know what it’s like to be living in a ghetto. You don’t know what it’s like to be poor. You don’t know what it’s like to be hassled when you walk down the street or you get dragged out of a car.

And I believe that as a nation in the year 2016, we must be firm in making it clear. We will end institutional racism and reform a broken criminal justice system.

He doesn't own his privilege. Besides equating AA with poor and ghettos, he doesn't take the time to acknowledge his specific privilege here. There's no use of the word "I" when it comes to an understanding of the issue.

I find that interesting.

 

[Tesseract]

i mean really, that's an incredible stretch. you can't interpret and compare two personalities without mounds more data.

 

[User 463088]

i mean really, that's an incredible stretch. you can't interpret and compare two personalities without mounds more data.

Clearly, I'm talking about this specific exchange. Not in the history of the entire world.

 

[CCS]

Am I correct in saying the Fox town hall is tonight?

 

[User 463088]

Am I correct in saying the Fox town hall is tonight?

Yup, and then another debate on 9th, I believe.

 

[CCS]

Yup, and then another debate on 9th, I believe.

The fun just never stops!

 

[User 463088]

The fun just never stops!

There's the townhall Monday.
Michigan and Mississippi on Tuesday.
A democratic debate on Wednesday.
A Republican debate on Thursday.

 

[The Technomancer]

Blargh, I'll be around for tomorrow's town hall but I'll be smack dab in the middle of an international flight on the 9th

meh

I think I'll get to see the fun one. Wednesdays probably won't be too great

 

[CCS]

There's the townhall Monday.
Michigan and Mississippi on Tuesday.
A democratic debate on Wednesday.
A Republican debate on Thursday.

Heeeeey Macarena!

 

[User 463088]

And Friday morning will be filled with the realization that I must hate my liver and brain to put myself through the GOP shit show.

 

[CCS]

Out of those, I think I'll stay up on Tuesday and Thursday. Democrats aren't as entertaining a shit show.

 

[daedalius]

There's the townhall Monday.
Michigan and Mississippi on Tuesday.
A democratic debate on Wednesday.
A Republican debate on Thursday.

Any latest dem polls from those states?

I remember last ones looked pretty lopsided in Hilary's favor

 

[StopMakingSense]

Any latest dem polls from those states?

I remember last ones looked pretty lopsided in Hilary's favor

Mississippi will be a 50-60 point Clinton win.

Clinton is leading in polls ~20 points in Michigan.

 

[CCS]

Just looked up 538's tracker, and in each of the next six states Hillary's odds of winning are 95% or higher. Sanders' campaign is about to run into an absolutely YUUUUUUGE wall.

 

[cartoon_soldier]

There was something that stuck out to me about that race question in the debate. I couldn't figure out what it was, so I pulled the transcript.



Here's Hillary's answer:



Notice the use of "I" throughout the whole thing. "I can't pretend to have the experience...

Then Bernie's answer, after the stories he shares



He doesn't own his privilege. Besides equating AA with poor and ghettos, he doesn't take the time to acknowledge his specific privilege here. There's no use of the word "I" when it comes to an understanding of the issue.

I find that interesting.

That's a very good catch and point.

 

[Cerium]

There's the townhall Monday.
Michigan and Mississippi on Tuesday.
A democratic debate on Wednesday.
A Republican debate on Thursday.

It really is like a 24/7 reality show. A very entertaining one too. Highest stakes ever. One lucky contestant will win a Presidency of the United States.

 

[neurosisxeno]

In your hammer example, though, if a hammer manufacturer is negligent, we can sue them. PLCAA makes it a lot harder to try and get that type of judgement.

A bit late, but I want to comment on that point. The examples provided mix Gun Dealers and Gun Manufacturers up quite a bit. I don't think anyone is opposed to going after Gun Dealers that inappropriately provide guns to people, but going after manufacturers is kind of unprecedented. It mentions Dram Shop Laws, but uses what they actually accomplish completely out of context;

For example, bars can be liable for accidents when they negligently sell alcohol to people they have reason to think will drive drunk. Gun companies now have unique immunity from this basic duty in most cases.

This is a fundamentally wrong comparison. Dram Shop Laws allow you to sue the Bartender (Salesman) and Property\Business Owner (Store Owner) but NOT the company that makes the Alcohol (the Guns) when negligence occurs. Guns are no different than Alcohol when we're discussing Dram Shop Laws, and it's because the idea of holding the manufacturer of a legally purchasable product accountable for misuse of that product is a slippery slope.

I am all for increased regulation by the way, but this "Manufacturer Accountability" angle will never work. You need to focus on things like Universal Background Checks and Mandatory Firearm Education first, because a lot of gun owners are already okay with those things--despite that the NRA is against them. I think the Democratic Party has a lot to gain by softening its stance on Guns rather than doubling down on being anti-Gun.

 

[benjipwns]

In honor of PhoenixDark (r.i.p. in peace), I will offer PollinGAF agency to decide my potential Michigan primary vote:

D: Sanders
or
R: Trump or Cruz
(Michigan allows you to vote in whichever primary you want, you simply declare which ballot you want.)

Under no circumstances will I accept money or Steam trading cards in exchange for my vote. I will accept them completely independently. I would never advocate the horrendous crime of being paid for something the payer cannot confirm I did or I was already going to do but under pristine thoughts only for the best of my country of birth.

I will not vote for Hillary due to her calling for the recall and removal of our twice duly elected Governor Rick Snyder (PBUH). No matter how appealing her record of murder and other criminal activity is.

 

[CCS]

In honor of PhoenixDark (r.i.p. in peace), I will offer PollinGAF agency to decide my potential Michigan primary vote:

D: Sanders
or
R: Donald "Our planet is freezing" Trump or Cruz
(Michigan allows you to vote in whichever primary you want, you simply declare which ballot you want.)

Under no circumstances will I accept money or Steam trading cards in exchange for my vote. I will accept them completely independently. I would never advocate the horrendous crime of being paid for something the payer cannot confirm I did or I was already going to do but under pristine thoughts only for the best of my country of birth.

I will not vote for Hillary due to her calling for the recall and removal of our twice duly elected Governor Rick Snyder (PBUH).

Cruz. A man who can eat a bogey live on stage and still win two caucuses is clearly a worthy candidate to be president.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Watched some highlights. #awfuloptics

Is he still making those weird facial expressions during split screens?

 

[Maledict]

I really don't see the point of this many debates. All that happens is every side thinks their person did best and deepen rancour between the sides. It's ridiculous how many there are - there's a reason you only have a few for the actual Presidential election.

 

[Officerrob]

Dems went from too few debates/town halls, to far too many

 

[danm999]

I really don't see the point of this many debates. All that happens is every side thinks their person did best and deepen rancour between the sides. It's ridiculous how many there are - there's a reason you only have a few for the actual Presidential election.

I think these are the new ones scheduled after DWS (Debate Withholding Saboteur) was accused of protecting Clinton by scheduling too few debates and in bad time slots?

 

[Ecotic]

The debate schedule just needs to front-loaded. There's too few debates early on when people want to learn about the candidates and too many after people know everything about them and half the country has already voted.

 

[benjipwns]

I really don't see the point of this many debates. All that happens is every side thinks their person did best and deepen rancour between the sides. It's ridiculous how many there are - there's a reason you only have a few for the actual Presidential election.

The debate schedule just needs to front-loaded. There's too few debates early on when people want to learn about the candidates and too many after people know everything about them and half the country has already voted.

You guys are ignoring the most important people for our democratic system here. The punditocracy that has to fill their 24/7 news cycles with as little non-sport/gossip coverage as possible.

 

[Y2Kev]

I wonder if a pretty Ted Cruz that oozes charisma (and managed to actually make friends in Washington) could do damage even with the same set of views and policy points Ted has.

I believe it is very hard to be beautiful and fabulous and have Ted Cruz's perspectives on most issues. His bitterness and sheer distaste for humanity was most likely caused by his endless, incessant teasing at the hands of young girls on the schoolyard playground.

Dems went from too few debates/town halls, to far too many

I do blame Hillary for this. She agreed to more debates when the media was flipping out about how done she was. I guess in retrospect this was extremely quick to the trigger, but whatever. She's good at debates and it helps demonstrate the sheer breadth and depth of her expertise. I don't think a lot of people agree with EVERYTHING she says, but it's hard not to be impressed by the voluminous knowledge she has on basically everything.

I think after the 15th, on the other side, Trump should refuse to do any more debates. If there are any.