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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated
- Thread starter Makai
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Way to late. Just succeeding in wasting your money at this point.
But Adam, he said he walked with MLK
shinra-bansho
Member
The two March debates being so close together can also be considered Clinton's fault specifically, given I think it was her campaign that pushed for a Flint, Michigan debate location and timing wise this is probably the only way to fit it before the primary.
MysticDistance
Banned
That is an interesting catch point, even if it is for one exchange. Definitely doesn't look good after his comment at the debate.
Well, that's a huge waste of money.
Ted Cruz 11%
John Kasich 18%
Marco Rubio 18%
Donald Trump 45%
Vol: Someone else 1%
Don't know/No opinion 7%
NY POLL
http://www.capitalnewyork.com/sites/default/files/1603_Siena_Poll_Crosstabs.pdf
Also, FL is a big fat mess
One of Ted Cruz’s super PACs says its aiming to take out Marco Rubio in his home state of Florida.
And the pro-Cruz super PAC has prepared an array of new attack ads hitting Rubio — on sugar subsidies, on his tax plan, on amnesty and on national defense — with plans to air them in Florida.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/...ake-out-rubio-in-florida-220355#ixzz42DnwFVWk
John Kasich 18%
Marco Rubio 18%
Donald Trump 45%
Vol: Someone else 1%
Don't know/No opinion 7%
NY POLL
http://www.capitalnewyork.com/sites/default/files/1603_Siena_Poll_Crosstabs.pdf
Also, FL is a big fat mess
One of Ted Cruz’s super PACs says its aiming to take out Marco Rubio in his home state of Florida.
And the pro-Cruz super PAC has prepared an array of new attack ads hitting Rubio — on sugar subsidies, on his tax plan, on amnesty and on national defense — with plans to air them in Florida.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/...ake-out-rubio-in-florida-220355#ixzz42DnwFVWk
Roland_Gunner
Member
naw there are other internal numbers floating around that shows Trump winning, dont believe the numbers that are actually published
shinra-bansho
Member
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/03/tad-devine-inside-bernie-sanders-campaign-220357?lo=ut_a1
Tad will take any route he can find to finally get in the White House.
Tad will take any route he can find to finally get in the White House.
But that's literally his only shot. He will be cast aside in any brokered convention and he knows it.
Yup, I don't think he believes he can win FL, but if he can ensure Rubio loses (or for maximum lulz, gets 3rd), Rubio would have to drop
It's a catch 22. Because in that scenario he helps Trump a ton.
Agreed, but then he can try to win in Missouri and the plains and western states to stop trump. I don't think these things are likely but the alternative is a certain loss.
Edit: also he knows he will collect more delegates with Rubio out of the race. This will give him leverage at the convention even if he doesn't play the broker role. You can imagine him getting a nice prize out of this.
Edit: also he knows he will collect more delegates with Rubio out of the race. This will give him leverage at the convention even if he doesn't play the broker role. You can imagine him getting a nice prize out of this.
Roland_Gunner
Member
John Dunbar
correct about everything
so is rubio's "the map only gets better for us" thing baghdad bob level denial or what?
I think Rubio is less delusional than the fruit ninja. Fruit ninja will probably only win one state in the best case scenario.
He's right. It does only get better. He still has no chance at winning I think. Maybe if trump absolutely craters or is even that impossible at this point?
Mississippi will be an interesting test of trump support. Trump won eastern la pretty easily. Will Mississippi be more like Oklahoma or more like Alabama? I guess we find out tomorrow!
Rubio is dead. But then what else could you expect from such a big fat mess. He can't even beat Cruz.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
I would be stunned if Trump lost Michigan.
Is there any scenario where Trump wins Ohio and FL and Cruz still gets the delegates needed?
Because that's the only thing I can see him betting on. Rubio and Kasich both getting embarrassed in their home states and then dropping out, which will lead to Cruz hoping Trump can not reach 50% of the vote and he wins the rest of the way.
Because that's the only thing I can see him betting on. Rubio and Kasich both getting embarrassed in their home states and then dropping out, which will lead to Cruz hoping Trump can not reach 50% of the vote and he wins the rest of the way.
Not really, I think he has to lose Ohio and Florida for there to be a brokered convention, unless he drops off massively after.
Its possible, but highly unlikely.
Cruz's plan is simple. He's not stupid, he knows it's either Trump winning or a brokered convention at this stage. His plan is to knock the others out now so that he can a mass the second largest number of delegates going into the convention, and be the clear second place person to TRump (rather than having multiple contenders all with 100+ delegates).
Rubio losing Florida and Kasich losing Ohio means that:
1) If Trump wins, then Cruz was second place and the clear runner up, so he will get the nod in 2020 after Trump explodes in a general. He can campaign on being a real conservative and the reason they lost under Trump was because he was a fake liberal.
2) If it's a brokered convention then he'll be in second place. That might give him the nod as a compromise agreement if he chooses someone like Kasich or Sanderal as his VP. More importantly, it makes it very, very hard for any of his current rivals to be chosen as the nominee ahead of him.
3) If it's a brokered convention and he isn't chosen then he gets to do 1) - run again in 2020 as the favourite to win.
Cruise isn't stupid, he's built the best ground game out of all the republicans and has been sighted on the way to win for a lot longer. Whilst I'm sure he'd love to get the nominee now, a lot of what he is doing is about preparing for the future and potentially 2020. In order to get any of that done, he needs Rubio to lose in Florida ASAP. It's better for Cruise that Trump wins Florida and wins the nomination than it is Rubio to win Florida and then stage a comeback that puts him in second place in the convention.
Rubio losing Florida and Kasich losing Ohio means that:
1) If Trump wins, then Cruz was second place and the clear runner up, so he will get the nod in 2020 after Trump explodes in a general. He can campaign on being a real conservative and the reason they lost under Trump was because he was a fake liberal.
2) If it's a brokered convention then he'll be in second place. That might give him the nod as a compromise agreement if he chooses someone like Kasich or Sanderal as his VP. More importantly, it makes it very, very hard for any of his current rivals to be chosen as the nominee ahead of him.
3) If it's a brokered convention and he isn't chosen then he gets to do 1) - run again in 2020 as the favourite to win.
Cruise isn't stupid, he's built the best ground game out of all the republicans and has been sighted on the way to win for a lot longer. Whilst I'm sure he'd love to get the nominee now, a lot of what he is doing is about preparing for the future and potentially 2020. In order to get any of that done, he needs Rubio to lose in Florida ASAP. It's better for Cruise that Trump wins Florida and wins the nomination than it is Rubio to win Florida and then stage a comeback that puts him in second place in the convention.
Cruz would have to basically sweep everything left to win outright if Trump wins Ohio/Florida. That includes New York/New Jersey.
Cruz winning a bunch after March 15th and coming out with a plurality of overall delegates is possible, but not very likely.
It's not subconscious acceptance. It's math.
PopcornMegaphone
Banned
I've consciously accepted she will be the nomination. The delegate math doesn't work for Sanders.
QuiteWhittle
Member
New Michigan poll:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mitchell-FOX_2_Detroit_MI_Poll_DEM_Primary_3-6-16.pdf
Clinton 66
Sanders 29
Oopsies!
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Yeah, MS is more like Alabama than Texas.
Hey never say never, anything can happen. July 25 is a long time away
Won't be that big, but at this rate I'd be surprised if he gets it below 20.
Yellowtail
Member
Looks like spring break has begun.
Republican numbers:
Trump 42
Kasich 20
Cruz 19
Little Marco 9
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Mitchell_Poll_FOX_2_GOP_Primary_3-6-16.pdf
Cesare Borgia
Banned
The map gets better for Rubio, sure. His home state is coming up, Ohio is a state an "establishment" candidate should do decent in. Illinois, Wisconsin, perhaps Wyoming with the right endorsements, Connecticut, Delaware, etc.
The problem is that Rubio has shown no ability to win states that he should be able to contest in (on paper). Barring a miracle he will lose his home state, he'll probably come in third or fourth in Ohio, and that could cause a campaign death spiral in the rest of the states I mentioned.
Meanwhile Trump should win three of four tomorrow (Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Hawaii). And on the 15th he's leading in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio...
The problem is that Rubio has shown no ability to win states that he should be able to contest in (on paper). Barring a miracle he will lose his home state, he'll probably come in third or fourth in Ohio, and that could cause a campaign death spiral in the rest of the states I mentioned.
Meanwhile Trump should win three of four tomorrow (Idaho, Michigan, Mississippi, Hawaii). And on the 15th he's leading in Florida, Illinois, and Ohio...
Weaver is a disaster. As soon as he became campaign manager fo Sanders, disaster was looming.
I agree with this. Two things though:
1) WHY is Cruz still lying about not wanting a brokered convention? Anyone with two brain cells can see that he has no chance of passing Trump and legit getting the nod at this point. He needs a brokered convention and he knows it, so why lie about something so obvious? A brokered convention wouldn't cost him support. Lying about it is probably costing him at this point.
2) I still see it as a possibility that the establishment will reject him and introduce a new candidate. They may not want Trump, but they don't want Cruz either, and Cruz is even less electable than Trump at this stage. The Religious Right can't deliver general elections anymore.
Welp, that's what being an ass gets you.
I don't feel the least bit bad. He could have been dangerous, putting an new, supposedly fresh face on old-fashioned ideas held by Cheney, Santorum, etc. To me, his downfall (along with faux-moderate Kasich's inability to get traction) is one of the happiest outcomes of this primary season.
Roland_Gunner
Member
I disagree that all of this brokered convention talk doesn't hurt the other candidates. It's fundamentally undemocratic and turns people off. By at least pretending to want to win straight up Cruz looks more credible than Rubio. Its a relatively small thing but I think it has helped him.
Honestly I don't think Cruz has any chance of coming out of a brokered convention with the nom. He's fucking hated by too many of the establishment in party, not dislike, actual visceral hatred. He doesn't have the backing of the powerbrokers who are needed to tip it. He might get away with Cruz/Rubio ticket but that just looks like a coalition of the beaten.
If Trump doesn't get over the line, there will be an attempt to get a 'unity' candidate either Romney (who's probably effed up making his desire for that to happen so absolutely apparent) or Ryan (but then that opens up the speaker which is basically political suicide for anyone else in the party)
If Trump doesn't get over the line, there will be an attempt to get a 'unity' candidate either Romney (who's probably effed up making his desire for that to happen so absolutely apparent) or Ryan (but then that opens up the speaker which is basically political suicide for anyone else in the party)
So now Devine has floated Sanders for VP? So you spend time potentially damaging the frontrunner when you have no real shot at winning. You attack the entire party writ large, and now you want to be VP. No.
And that's not even considering it's not a proper balance to the ticket in so many ways.
And that's not even considering it's not a proper balance to the ticket in so many ways.
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