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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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I work in a city building here in Texas. There is a line to vote. That usually doesn't happen here. GOP is in an uproar.

Man, I'm still going back on forth if I want Trump to win Texas. On one hand it would help Trump's unstoppable train. On the other hand Cruz won't be there to siphon some of Rubio's votes, since he would probably drop out.
 
I really can't picture how someone who considers themself a moderate Republican could be voting Trump. Unless it's under the delusion that he'll do a heel-face turn or something.

I mean, I guess there's a train of thought where he could win because people want the LOLz, ergo maybe you get a GOP President who will rubber stamp everything a GOP House and Senate push through. I mean....it makes sense in a weird way. I think this is probably too strategic, though.
 
.@BernieSanders is known for big crowds. 15 minutes before showtime at Claflin U in Orangeburg, a different picture

CcLF4EJUkAE67tS.jpg
 

Bowdz

Member
Man, I'm still going back on forth if I want Trump to win Texas. On one hand it would probably cause Cruz to drop. On the other hand he won't be there to siphon some of Rubio's votes.

Based on the Bloomberg polls from the ST states yesterday, Trump beats Rubio head to head. I think if he completely swept up on ST, he would still be in a great position to beat Rubio with an enormous head of steam as well. Besides, Kasich isn't dropping until Ohio.

So based on that, I'm rooting for a Trump win in TX.
 
What's the vibe? Is Trump fever taking hold? The Trump Reich? Or is the Cruz missile flying true?

I'd say mostly Rubio or Kasich (Its a very affluent community, they have the most the lose.

Man, I'm still going back on forth if I want Trump to win Texas. On one hand it would help Trump's unstoppable train. On the other hand Cruz won't be there to siphon some of Rubio's votes, since he would probably drop out.

I don't want Cruz to win because I detest him. I don't want Rubio to win because it gives him legs.

early voting?

Yup, last day early voting. Dems will be voting here on Tuesday, so I won't get to see the chaos of the GOP primary on voting day, unfortunately.
 
Uh, the electorate is the people who show up. If ten people show up in a midterm and four of them are black, then the black share of the electorate is 40%. If then a million people show up for the presidential race and 400,000 of them are black, then the black share of the electorate is still 40%.
I know that. If the white Democratic electorate isn't engaged enough to vote in off-year primaries their share of the vote goes down. I'm not sure why you are confused here. It is quite possible for different demographics to have different voting patterns in mid terms vs Presidential years.

And that graph shows a steady increase for every year except 2008, and I seriously doubt black people just decided to stay home for that one.
No, the graph goes up from 2004 too. The data points in the graph aren't sufficient to support your argument. At the very least you'd need to show that the white share of the electorate isn't higher for every year that the primary takes place during a Presidential election. Racism may very well have drove more white voters to turn out, but you can't prove it with that graph.
 
Based on the Bloomberg polls from the ST states yesterday, Trump beats Rubio head to head. I think if he completely swept up on ST, he would still be in a great position to beat Rubio with an enormous head of steam as well. Besides, Kasich isn't dropping until Ohio.

So based on that, I'm rooting for a Trump win in TX.

Well good thing if Cruz drops atleast is Trump won't be getting tag teamed anymore. Megyn Kelly is going to try to ruin him next week at the debate though.
 

danm999

Member
To be honest, how predictive are big crowds of electoral success? I'm sure it makes a good headline be didn't Ron Paul and Howard Dean have big crowds?
 
Can we stop the bashing on Sanders? We get it, hes going to lose. I've accepted it and just trying to move on by focusing on the sideshow that is the right. The guy supports most of what you support.
 
To be honest, how predictive are big crowds of electoral success? I'm sure it makes a good headline be didn't Ron Paul and Howard Dean have big crowds?

Not at all, and it's harder than hell to fill up venues. One time a group of us went out to grab people to throw into a Hillary one in Ohio last cycle. Was awful. My main critique is when Bernie's campaign doesn't move the cameras and stuff to make it not look so bad. It's mainly a critique of his campaign than him.
 

User 406

Banned
I know that. If the white Democratic electorate isn't engaged enough to vote in off-year primaries their share of the vote goes down. I'm not sure why you are confused here.

No, the graph goes up from 2004 too. The data points in the graph aren't sufficient to support your argument. At the very least you'd need to show that the white share of the electorate isn't higher for every year that the primary takes place during a Presidential election. Racism may very well have drove more white voters to turn out, but you can't prove it with that graph.

But there's no corresponding dip in 2012. The entire trend is upwards, most likely due to demographic growth, except for the discontinuity in 2008. At that point, the black vote share suddenly got smaller, almost certainly due to a much higher white turnout for that election.
 
But there's no corresponding dip in 2012. The entire trend is upwards, most likely due to demographic growth, except for the discontinuity in 2008. At that point, the black vote share suddenly got smaller, almost certainly due to a much higher white turnout for that election.

There was no Democratic primary race in 2012, it was effectively no different from a mid-term primary.
 

NeoXChaos

Member
Sean T at RCP ‏@SeanTrende 13m13 minutes ago
I guess the plus side of a Trump nomination is I won't have to do much POTUS stuff this year. Like house/senate/gov better.

Harry Enten ‏@ForecasterEnten 14m14 minutes ago
@seantrende Might actually make the House stuff fun...

lol
 

Ekai

Member
Can we stop the bashing on Sanders? We get it, hes going to lose. I've accepted it and just trying to move on by focusing on the sideshow that is the right. The guy supports most of what you support.

My impression is you're asking too much, unfortunately.
 
There's a farmer in Ohio who has written "NO TRUMP" on his land that you can see from the highway and sky. He's from Tuscarawas County.

He wrote "NO TRUMP" out of cow shit. I shit you not.
 

A Human Becoming

More than a Member
Was probably talked about in the Christie endorsement thread and here, but since I haven't been around today, is the endorsement plus his poor approval ratings in NJ signalling Christie losing re-election or has he decided not to/can't run?
 
Was probably talked about in the Christie endorsement thread and here, but since I haven't been around today, is the endorsement plus his poor approval ratings in NJ signalling Christie losing re-election or has he decided not to/can't run?

Can't run in 2017. NJ has a 2 consecutive term limit so he can run again in 2021 but he would probably have a hard time due to his approval ratings.
 
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