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PoliGAF 2016 |OT2| we love the poorly educated

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User 406

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http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/27/u...lights&contentPlacement=1&pgtype=sectionfront

That discontinuity in 2008... whole lot of white people suddenly feeling the urgent need to vote.
 
She probably needs a victory greater than 15 pts for it to be even seen as a victory, and it will be a muted one.

The expectations are high. She's basically been campaigning there all week while Sanders jetted off to Super Tuesday states he thinks he can win.

20 pts is probably around expectation at this stage.

10 or less and we're at #disarray. Firewall doused.
 
I mean, I watched the interview. Is it bias to think he poorly answered several of his questions?

Bias is everywhere, and active at all times. When making qualitative judgments, it is impossible to filter bias out of the experience. However, just because something is biased, it doesn't inherently make it invalid.

So if you're asking me if your opinion that Bernie answered some questions poorly invalid just because they're biased, I would say, no, they're not necessarily invalid. But I wasn't really responding to the validity of whether or not Bernie was interviewing poorly, I was responding to the question of how it was possible to make an opposing argument that Bernie responded strongly. Both arguments aren't objectively right or wrong, so yes, bias will probably play a significant factor in the perception of how that interview went.
 

Krowley

Member
If Sanders gets destroyed really bad tomorrow, at least I'll be able to stop refreshing election news sites and focus on my writing.
 
Now, I have to wonder what does the rest of the establishment do when he wins.

Do the Bushes endorse Trump? I don't think they can even bring themselves to vote for him.

Does Mittens?

Does John McCain?
 

Kyosaiga

Banned
Now, I have to wonder what does the rest of the establishment do.

Do the Bushes endorse Trump? I don't think they can even bring themselves to vote for him.

Does Mittens?

Does John McCain?
Jeb has already heavily implied that if Trump is the nominee he won't endorse, he won't attend the convention, etc.
 

Bowdz

Member
Now, I have to wonder what does the rest of the establishment do.

Do the Bushes endorse Trump? I don't think they can even bring themselves to vote for him.

Does Mittens?

Does John McCain?

I've said it in the past, provided the Dems can pull out a win in November, they can hang any support for Trump around the GOP's neck for years. They can almost permanently win Hispanics over if they can tie Trump to up and coming GOPers.
 

User 406

Banned
Yeah, a Presidential election. The chart rises from 2004 too.

It's the black share of the electorate. Midterm vs. Presidential turnout levels won't show. What the graph does show is that a steadily increasing black share of the electorate was interrupted by a very sudden influx of white voters driving down the black percentage in 2008. They got motivated for some reason. :p
 
Now, I have to wonder what does the rest of the establishment do.

Do the Bushes endorse Trump? I don't think they can even bring themselves to vote for him.

Does Mittens?

Does John McCain?

John McCain, look, John McCain, nice guy. We get along great. Not a hero. He got caught. Not a hero. Okay? And I voted for Mitt. You know, whatever. Loser. Don't need his support. HW Bush, fine man. Love him. We love the Bushes. He lost to a Clinton though. Don't need his support. Big Loser. I like winners. I'm going to win so big. So big. The wall, it's gotten ten feet higher so that when Daddy Bush skydives again he won't even be able to see the ground over it. Yuge wall. YUGE. Jeb!, now we like Jeb! Low energy. Low energy, but we like Jeb!. He said he'd support me. I told him no. I didn't want to take what little life he had left. Love the Bushes. Love em.
 

User1608

Banned
Oh no. Are you okay? I hope you are!

You okay man?

Can you still join the PoliGAF circle jerk m'lady?

"Mitch McConnell looks like a turtle and is slow to act while he let Obama ruin this country. Idiot."

It will be entertaining to say the least.



You okay?



Scott
Yup, I'm fine now. Thanks for asking cool peeps! I did watch last night's debate a bit, and I did like Rubio's (if artificial) takedown of Trump. Then again it was a hilarious show.
 

CCS

Banned
John McCain, look, John McCain, nice guy. We get along great. Not a hero. He got caught. Not a hero. Okay? And I voted for Mitt. You know, whatever. Loser. Don't need his support. HW Bush, fine man. Love him. We love the Bushes. He lost to a Clinton though. Don't need his support. Big Loser. I like winners. I'm going to win so big. So big. The wall, it's gotten ten feet higher so that when Daddy Bush skydives again he won't even be able to see the ground over it. Yuge wall. YUGE. Jeb!, now we like Jeb! Low energy. Low energy, but we like Jeb!. He said he'd support me. I told him no. I didn't want to take what little life he had left. Love the Bushes. Love em.

Frighteningly good that.
 

HylianTom

Banned
Nate Silver now says that there's a good chance that the convention in Cleveland will be - his word - a "shitshow."

If things keep up, I might be taking more than one day off that week. This is once-in-a-lifetime stuff.
 

Bronx-Man

Banned
Now, I have to wonder what does the rest of the establishment do when he wins.

Do the Bushes endorse Trump? I don't think they can even bring themselves to vote for him.

Does Mittens?

Does John McCain?

No, no, and no.

I'm just now imaging the icy reception he would get at the RNC in September.
 
It's the black share of the electorate. Midterm vs. Presidential turnout levels won't show. What the graph does show is that a steadily increasing black share of the electorate was interrupted by a very sudden influx of white voters driving down the black percentage in 2008. They got motivated for some reason. :p
It seems to be showing that black voters turn out more in non Presidential primaries. You can't make the case that it's demonstrating racism based off the data points shown. Maybe if you go back further there would be more evidence.
 
Nate Silver now says that there's a good chance that the convention in Cleveland will be - his word - a "shitshow."

If things keep up, I might be taking more than one day off that week. This is once-in-a-lifetime stuff.

oh god I forgot the convention was in Cleveland

how did I not see this coming the second they announced it
 
Frighteningly good that.

Because we're going to win. We don't win big anymore. And it is frightening. It's scary. I am good. So good. We want to win, right? And, so it's big. And it's a winner that we need. You know, they won't be afraid of winning once I'm in the White House. It's called a White House for a reason, right? And, I'm yugely good at this. Swing for the fences, boys. We're going to be big again. And so good. So, so good.
 
And I guess to add to that, have moderate Republicans just been driven out of the party for Trump to be pulling the numbers he has.
He wins a majority in Florida, from memory, with second choices reallocated. He's winning nearly that in places like Massachusetts?
I guess it's why people like Olympia Snowe retired, and it's the party's fault for this asymmetric ridiculous levels of polarization.
 
And I guess to add to that, have moderate Republicans just been driven out of the party for Trump to be pulling the numbers he has.
He wins a majority in Florida, from memory, with second choices reallocated. He's winning nearly that in places like Massachusetts?
I guess it's why people like Olympia Snowe retired, and it's the party's fault for this asymmetric ridiculous levels of polarization.

He does well among moderate Republicans. He's not a traditional conservative candidate.
 
oh god I forgot the convention was in Cleveland

how did I not see this coming the second they announced it

Hey. Leave Cleveland alone. Of course it's going to be a shit show. But let's pretend we can get our shit together for ten minutes...

Can you sleep ur way to one?

I've been trying to sleep my way to the middle for years.

Nate Silver now says that there's a good chance that the convention in Cleveland will be - his word - a "shitshow."

If things keep up, I might be taking more than one day off that week. This is once-in-a-lifetime stuff.

I totally am going to spend the week up there for no reason other than I want to watch the world bern.
 
Maybe Trump wins, we can get the world to come together and give us enough money to turn the wall into a giant dome over the US. That'd keep the stupid in. We could start a Go Fund Me or something.
 

sangreal

Member
They won't be laughing when the nukes start flying.

Hey now..

If anyone attacks you, you bite back pretty hard, don't you?
Yes. Yes.

If you were the same kind of president as you are a candidate, it sometimes feels like the first time some country disrespected you, you'd just want to nuke them.
No, no, no. But some of these countries are really taking advantage of us and I would fight for fairness of our country.

But would you be scared to nuke them if you thought it was justified?
I wouldn't be nuking anybody.

Under any circumstances?
Under… I will have a military that's so strong and powerful, and so respected, we're not gonna have to nuke anybody.

So could we get rid of the weapons?
No, no, we wouldn't get rid of the weapons. Because you have so many people out there. But I would be somebody that would be amazingly calm under pressure.

But if you're not going to use them, what's the point in having them?
The fact that other people have them. And unfortunately gaining more and more.

But ultimately you have to be prepared to press the button or there's no point in having them?
Well, I don't want to talk about that subject because that's not a subject that, you know… [restarts his thought] that has to do with that whole… [restarts his thought again] I just don't want to talk about it. It is highly, highly, highly, highly unlikely that I would ever be using them.

http://www.gq.com/story/best-donald-trump-interview-gq-men-of-the-year

he didn't say anything about conventional missiles
 

User 406

Banned
It seems to be showing that black voters turn out more in non Presidential primaries. You can't make the case that it's demonstrating racism based off the data points shown. Maybe if you go back further there would be more evidence.

Uh, the electorate is the people who show up. If ten people show up in a midterm and four of them are black, then the black share of the electorate is 40%. If then a million people show up for the presidential race and 400,000 of them are black, then the black share of the electorate is still 40%. And that graph shows a steady increase for every year except 2008, and I seriously doubt black people just decided to stay home for that one.

You could argue that a ton of non-black voters turned out to vote for Obama too, but if that were the case, we'd probably have had a different EV result.
 
I really can't picture how someone who considers themself a moderate Republican could be voting Trump. Unless it's under the delusion that he'll do a heel-face turn or something.
 
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