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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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pigeon

Banned
You know what I love? When I see "Gluten Free" on my cold cuts. Makes me want to punch people.

As someone who is married to a person who has an anaphylactic reaction to wheat flour, I can understand the desire to have a label like this. Plenty of packaged meats have soy or dairy added to them.

Natural evolution requires time because the mutations are random. If we know what a gene does why would we need this time?

Because plants and animals are complex systems and suggesting we "know what a gene does" assumes a level of understanding of these complex systems that we frankly don't possess. The most we can claim is that we know what the consequences we were able to directly measure are, in specific environments and timescales, for tweaking a gene in a specific way.
 

Armaros

Member
They assumed NYC's population was 90% made up of college kids? I really don't know how one would see NY as a Bernie win if you just looked at the state demographics.

I just couldn't help but laugh at the idea that her two extremely popular terms as Senator dont matter but Bernie living in NYC over 40 years ago before he left and never came back actually does matter.
 
They assumed NYC's population was 90% made up of college kids? I really don't know how one would see NY as a Bernie win if you just looked at the state demographics.
I hope this election teaches people there's wayyyyyyyy more nuance to US elections than red states and blue states.

Oh who am I fucking kidding. At most it'll be red states, blue states and establishment states.

Also, confirming what everyone already knew:

Cgklu4dW4AA6x8Y.jpg
 
This is the same argument that came up last time and it's still just as incorrect. There is in fact a meaningful difference between direct genetic modification, agricultural breeding, and evolutionary action, and that difference is timescale. It is a difference in kind as well as degree because removing timescale removes lots of processes that naturally act to prevent counterproductive mutations. That is literally how evolution works, so I am surprised that people don't seem to grasp that taking out the "survival of the fittest" part of the system actually meaningfully changes the results you may get from the system.

To me, saying that being concerned about GMOs is dumb because of evolution is approximately equivalent to saying that being concerned about climate change is dumb because winters are still cold.

I am not necessarily saying that we should be regulating GMOs, but I think it's bizarre and unfortunate that it seems like it's considered crazy or dangerous to be skeptical.

Yep, I remember you bringing up the point in the last discussion.

This is why there's still the uncertainty factor regarding the long term effects of GMOs.

It would behoove us to not pretend like we have all the answers when we don't. If there is uncertainty in the scientific community, that's a GOOD thing, as it means that there's more knowledge to attain in the future. Skepticism is also a good thing, as it is the foundation of the scientific method.

If anything, the scientific community needs to dispel with the notion that uncertainty is something to be afraid of.
 
As someone who is married to a person who has an anaphylactic reaction to wheat flour, I can understand the desire to have a label like this. Plenty of packaged meats have soy or dairy added to them.



Because plants and animals are complex systems and suggesting we "know what a gene does" assumes a level of understanding of these complex systems that we frankly don't possess. The most we can claim is that we know what the consequences we were able to directly measure are, in specific environments and timescales, for tweaking a gene in a specific way.

A. I didn't know that. I won't punch anyone next time I see it on my cold cuts.

B. I'm not sure I follow. The complaint about GMO foods is that they lack nutritional value or might be dangerous or something like that which we should be able to directly measure. Some of the other complaints are due to cross contamination for environmental reasons, but that's not why the average person wants labeling. They want labeling because they think what they're ingesting is bad.
 

3phemeral

Member
I'm starting to see a few Bernie supporters on my FB feed seemingly come to terms with Hillary's likely primary win but it's now being followed with:

"Hillary isn't doing anything to win my vote."​

My wonder is this: With all the negative campaigning against her from his supporters, how is it even possible she could cater to their vote without being accused of being dishonest or manipulative? You've vehemently painted her as an opportunistic flip-flopper, so how does this line of thinking work?
 

dramatis

Member
How did they come to the conclusion Bernie would win New York?

I don't believe Hillary has ever actually lost an election in New York.
New York and California are known in 'popular consciousness' as 'uber liberal' states. The impression without deeper study is that obviously these really liberal states would favor Bernie.

The downside is nobody looks deeper at things like demographics, the more conservative rural areas, and so on.

I'm starting to see a few Bernie supporters on my FB feed seemingly come to terms with Hillary's likely primary win but it's now being followed with:

"Hillary isn't doing anything to win my vote."​

My wonder is this: With all the negative campaigning against her from his supporters, how is it even possible she could cater to their vote without being accused of being dishonest or lying? You've vehemently painted her as an opportunistic flip-flopper, so how does this line of thinking work?
You can see it here on GAF. I consider it whining from a section of voters who are fickle, needy, and still want their desires placed above the desires of those groups that actually carried Hillary to victory, which is silly.
 

PBY

Banned
I'm starting to see a few Bernie supporters on my FB feed seemingly come to terms with Hillary's likely primary win but it's now being followed with:

"Hillary isn't doing anything to win my vote."​

My wonder is this: With all the negative campaigning against her from his supporters, how is it even possible she could cater to their vote without being accused of being dishonest or manipulative? You've vehemently painted her as an opportunistic flip-flopper, so how does this line of thinking work?

Also pretty sure she's been doing this the whole primary.
 

Kangi

Member
I'm starting to see a few Bernie supporters on my FB feed seemingly come to terms with Hillary's likely primary win but it's now being followed with:

"Hillary isn't doing anything to win my vote."​

My wonder is this: With all the negative campaigning against her from his supporters, how is it even possible she could cater to their vote without being accused of being dishonest or manipulative? You've vehemently painted her as an opportunistic flip-flopper, so how does this line of thinking work?

Precious Little Voter Needs To Feel Inspired By Candidate.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I can't believe so many news outlets ran with the Cruz lookalike story.
 
Bernie supporters need to not worry about that until Bernie is actually gone. Let the emotional attachment fade. Grieve.

Then look at her policy proposals.

Saying "you're not convinced by Clinton" while Bernie is still in helps nobody because reality hasn't fully set in, and it won't fully set in until it happens. I'm not trying to be mean but it's true.

On a similar note, don't try to persuade Bernie supporters right now either. They don't want to hear it.
 
There was supposed to be a Rhode Island poll released today from Brown U but people are so fed up with the election they can't find enough people willing to answer it:

Cgl-Ti1WMAAIeIG.jpg:large
 

pigeon

Banned
B. I'm not sure I follow. The complaint about GMO foods is that they lack nutritional value or might be dangerous or something like that which we should be able to directly measure. Some of the other complaints are due to cross contamination for environmental reasons, but that's not why the average person wants labeling. They want labeling because they think what they're ingesting is bad.

To help clarify my position, when I see these discussions I think about Pollan's exegesis in The Omnivore's Dilemma about the "NPK mentality."

When scientists first got around to studying plant growth, they identified rapidly that plants need three things in large quantities to grow -- nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. So that's how fertilizers were designed -- to give large quantities of these three things, because those are the things that correlate with plant growth.

But of course, the things that make plants grow fast and large aren't necessarily the things that grow plants that are best for human consumption! By reducing your focus to the wrong set of metrics we fail to identify the full set of factors that we might be concerned about.

So that's kind of my concern about GMOs. I am not necessarily concerned about the GMO foods themselves -- like they're probably not any more dangerous than the medication I take or the office building I work in or the tiny radio device I carry around and stare at to read the Internet -- but I am concerned by the mentality that we know all about them, because we don't even know all about the plants we were planting BEFORE we genetically modified them. Complex systems are complex! Reductionist analyses have limited effectiveness in managing them.
 
Seems like Poligaf has been bit by the science bug? Generally GMO's are pretty safe barring some shitty untested stuff + random unforseen events that actually were forseen but probably discounted cuz $$$. The real problem with GMO is generally the politics/bureaucracy and perhaps the pesticide mutations they put in (either creating organic ones or making them resistant so you can nuke entire fields).

Yes we don't know EVERYTHING about genes, but generally (if science is well funded) its not that hard to be pretty sure your not having massive off target effects with the advent of crispr and all these fancy new genetic targeting tools.
 
WTF was with that epic FF-esque music CNN was just playing as they were starting coverage of Prince's death? They are so fucking dramatic.
 

johnsmith

remember me
I agree. That poor woman shouldn't have to be subjected to that shit.

She was on Maury though. You kind of know what you're getting into by going on those shows. Did you read the caption?

It's like agreeing to go on Jerry Springer. Public humiliation is assured going in. It would be bad if it was pulled from a private Facebook page though.
 
This is the same argument that came up last time and it's still just as incorrect. There is in fact a meaningful difference between direct genetic modification, agricultural breeding, and evolutionary action, and that difference is timescale. It is a difference in kind as well as degree because removing timescale removes lots of processes that naturally act to prevent counterproductive mutations. That is literally how evolution works, so I am surprised that people don't seem to grasp that taking out the "survival of the fittest" part of the system actually meaningfully changes the results you may get from the system.

Agriculture doesn't involve the survival of the fittest. It involves the survival of the prettiest, the tastiest, the longest lasting (perishability). Unlike nature, agriculture keeps things alive outside of natural selection. If man were to go extinct, almost none of the food we eat would even be found on the planet within a hundred years, as it has no adaptive advantage whatsoever!

Traditional breeding aka artificial selection should be completely terrifying to anybody even slightly afraid of GMOs. Unpredictable results like the poisonous Lanape potato are far more likely. Ditto mutagenic breeding, where chemicals and gamma rays induce hundreds to thousands of random mutations in a food and we save and breed the ones that taste better or are prettier, with no knowledge of whatever other unknown mutations have also occurred and what their effects may be! And this is sold as Organic and Non-GMO!

The only people who want "GMO" labeling have no understanding of breeding, period.
 

Ophelion

Member
She was on Maury though. You kind of know what you're getting into by going on those shows. Did you read the caption?

That was something she consented to. This is not. Her being comfortable with participating in an embarrassingly trashy TV show doesn't give us permission to heap whatever humiliation upon her that we deem amusing.

I'm not saying she should be respected because she's some great testament to humanity. I'm saying she should be respected because she's a human being beyond a single image. Full stop.
 

studyguy

Member
I'm starting to see a few Bernie supporters on my FB feed seemingly come to terms with Hillary's likely primary win but it's now being followed with:

"Hillary isn't doing anything to win my vote."​

My wonder is this: With all the negative campaigning against her from his supporters, how is it even possible she could cater to their vote without being accused of being dishonest or manipulative? You've vehemently painted her as an opportunistic flip-flopper, so how does this line of thinking work?

Well when a large part of his constituency is supposed independents then it's pretty natural for them to feel that way if they never agreed with the democrats anyway.
I don't really know what to tell those people, but all the same the rhetoric will calm down once Sanders is formally out of the running. It's already tapering off everywhere on social media from what I see.
 

pigeon

Banned
Agriculture doesn't involve the survival of the fittest. It involves the survival of the prettiest, the tastiest, the longest lasting (perishability). By nature, agriculture keeps things alive outside of natural selection. If man were to go extinct, almost none of the food we eat would even be found on the planet within a hundred years, as it has no adaptive advantage whatsoever!

Sure. All this is obvious but it doesn't meaningfully change my point. Agriculture involves replacing the definition of "fittest" with a definition we like better by using selective breeding, and then applying evolutionary improvement. It doesn't involve completely jumping past the entire evolutionary process.

Traditional breeding aka artificial selection should be completely terrifying to anybody even slightly afraid of GMOs. Unpredictable results like the poisonous Lanape potato are far more likely. Ditto mutagenic breeding, where chemicals and gamma rays induce hundreds to thousands of random mutations in a food and we save and breed the ones that taste better or are prettier, with no knowledge of whatever other unknown mutations have also occurred and what their effects may be! And this is sold as Organic and Non-GMO!

I feel like if I were to write a response to this it would literally just be the post you quoted and responded to, because I was specifically pointing out how bad this argument is. So either we're talking past each other, or you're just kind of posting your pet anti-anti-GMO argument without really reading my argument, which unfortunately is something I notice happens a lot when I talk about this topic and is one reason I rarely discuss it.

Again, most of my frustration here is not about whether we should have GMO labels. It's about the idea, which you yourself more or less state, that it is totally unreasonable and stupid to have skepticism about whether GMO plants are necessarily safe. Frankly, I believe that kind of assertion is anti-scientific.
 
Have there been any studies that show that there is anything to be concerned about with GMOs. I mean sure , you can be skeptical, but what exactly are you basing this off of?
 
Again, most of my frustration here is not about whether we should have GMO labels. It's about the idea, which you yourself more or less state, that it is totally unreasonable and stupid to have skepticism about whether GMO plants are necessarily safe. Frankly, I believe that kind of assertion is anti-scientific.


I completely agree with this. Even if we were talking about climate change, it shouldn't be immune to skepticism, even if the current evidence overwhelmingly supports the conclusions that climate change is real and is being caused by human activity.
 
Has there been any studies that show that there is anything to be concerned about with GMOs. I mean sure , you can be skeptical, but what exactly are you basing this off of?

Not really my area of scientific knowledge but there have been some unwanted externalities mostly with the edited genes being reincorporated into wild plants (or the fear of that) + some pesticide shenanigans. But generally these problems are forseeable unless greed blinds you.

Tl;dr its fine unless you are an asshole in which case most science can be abused.
 
On the note of Sanders' views on GMOs and anti-science fear mongering, what's his logic for wanting to phase out nuclear power? I admire his strong rhetoric about global warming, but that only makes his opposition to nuclear all the more baffling.
I've noted this before but he basically seems like an old soldier of the left.

I.e. simply against Big Whatever.
This is the same argument that came up last time and it's still just as incorrect. There is in fact a meaningful difference between direct genetic modification, agricultural breeding, and evolutionary action, and that difference is timescale. It is a difference in kind as well as degree because removing timescale removes lots of processes that naturally act to prevent counterproductive mutations. That is literally how evolution works, so I am surprised that people don't seem to grasp that taking out the "survival of the fittest" part of the system actually meaningfully changes the results you may get from the system.

To me, saying that being concerned about GMOs is dumb because of evolution is approximately equivalent to saying that being concerned about climate change is dumb because winters are still cold.

I am not necessarily saying that we should be regulating GMOs, but I think it's bizarre and unfortunate that it seems like it's considered crazy or dangerous to be skeptical.
I'm just going to note that mutations that have a negative impact on founding progeny and species survival will be selected out under natural evolutionary processes. But that doesn't actually imply anything for safety for human consumption.

It seems strange to be more wary of a more controlled process. And the types of processes typically used for crop improvement aren't natural anyway. Unless I guess we consider massive doses of radiation to be natural I guess.

The argument doesn't really just arrive from comparison to evolutionary processes though, it's based on numerous studies, reviews of literature and meta-analyses that show there isn't any evidence of harm.

Any anxiety stems from years of nonsense campaigns from Greenpeace charlatans and their ilk, not scientific basis. As someone who spent a significant portion of his life in scientific research, I simply find this galling.
 
Has there been any studies that show that there is anything to be concerned about with GMOs. I mean sure , you can be skeptical, but what exactly are you basing this off of?

I'd say the concern would be the uncertainty, not the idea that GMOs are bad for you.

pigeon already explained it, but the timescale differential between GMOs by natural selection and GMOs by artificial selection is enough reason to be minimally skeptical, as we don't have a sufficient breadth of understanding in genetics to know if there would be a significant difference in long term effects between the two.
 
I completely agree with this. Even if we were talking about climate change, it shouldn't be immune to skepticism, even if the current evidence overwhelmingly supports the conclusions that climate change is real and is being caused by human activity.

It's important to keep an open mind about all scientific research, especially for those performing the research, but all these same arguments could be applied to the vaccines vs autism.
'd say the concern would be the uncertainty, not the idea that GMOs are bad for you.

pigeon already explained it, but the timescale differential between GMOs by natural selection and GMOs by artificial selection is enough reason to be minimally skeptical, as we don't have a sufficient breadth of understanding in genetics to know if there would be a significant difference in long term effects between the two.

This kind of sounds like hogwash to be honest. There's no evidence besides your feelings that speeding the process up would be harmful.

At this stage a GMO label is about as useful as a vaccine warning against neurological diseases.
 
I've noted this before but he basically seems like an old soldier of the left.

I.e. simply against Big Whatever.I'm just going to note that mutations that have a negative impact on founding progeny and species survival will be selected out under natural evolutionary processes. But that doesn't actually imply anything for safety for human consumption.

It seems strange to be more wary of a more controlled process. And the types of processes typically used for crop improvement aren't natural anyway.

The argument doesn't really just arrive from comparison to evolutionary processes though, it's based on numerous studies, reviews of literature and meta-analyses that show there isn't any evidence of harm.

Any anxiety stems from years of nonsense campaigns from Greenpeace charlatans and their ilk, not scientific basis. As someone who spent a significant portion of his life in scientific research, I simply find this galling.

Yea as a sanders supporter I have no clue why hes against nuclear (that and his trade positions are probably his worst to me off the top of my head). I think PART of the problem is that Monsanto is a huge boogey man for various reasons and they are a big user of GMO. I do think regulations should be decent for GMO but they probably are already (FDA is no joke) and outside of some really bad science/cover up GMO's are the future.

You can always return to research, there is almost an infinite amount of stuff left to do!
One of us!
 
This is the same argument that came up last time and it's still just as incorrect. There is in fact a meaningful difference between direct genetic modification, agricultural breeding, and evolutionary action, and that difference is timescale. It is a difference in kind as well as degree because removing timescale removes lots of processes that naturally act to prevent counterproductive mutations. That is literally how evolution works, so I am surprised that people don't seem to grasp that taking out the "survival of the fittest" part of the system actually meaningfully changes the results you may get from the system.

To me, saying that being concerned about GMOs is dumb because of evolution is approximately equivalent to saying that being concerned about climate change is dumb because winters are still cold.

I am not necessarily saying that we should be regulating GMOs, but I think it's bizarre and unfortunate that it seems like it's considered crazy or dangerous to be skeptical.

I completely disagree and find this position to wholly ignore the exponential growth in human knowledge and understanding during this time frame as well as being generally incorrect about evolution. Your mistake is in assuming that a long time-scale equals safety or healthy. Just because humans have done something for thousands of years does not make it safe or good for you; evolution does not reward true belief. Only with our existing knowledge can we even look back at long-term genetic changes with any real context or understanding of what it even was/did.

Furthermore, it is a misnomer to talk about "survival of the fittest" as opposed to differential reproduction. We don't eat the corn we have today because it is the "fittest" corn, but because we chose to cultivate it above alternatives. There were no real selective pressures on that corn, it was almost entirely human-driven. What "natural processes" would have counteracted the bad mutations you have in mind that don't include human decision making? After all, if we need long-time scales in order to know whether something is safe or not, how would Indigenous people know what was safe or not? I assume you're not suggesting something like a particular mutation of corn killed whole scores of Indigenous people so they selectively stopped eating that variant. Because that would require a huge number of unwarranted assumptions.

First, the mutation would have to be significant enough to kill or severely harm humans (an extremely low probability). Second, the mutation would have to be severe enough to cause those effects quickly and visibly. Third, the Indigenous people would have to be able to recognize those effects as having been caused by the corn. Fourth, they would have had to know exactly which corn was causing those effects. Fifth, they would have to successfully prevent further dissemination of the 'bad' corn genetic line. And so on and so forth. The point is, humans have not been under selective pressure for thousands of years. We didn't die because of the food we ate, we died because we ran out of food, or we got sick or injured. Any bad modifications that corn developed along the way would have been insignificant relative to the common causes of death.

It's not like we can accidentally turn on an "everyone gets cancer from eating this" gene. And even if we could, being able to pinpoint its cause back to a particular change in a particular food item's genetic structure (whether "natural" or not) would be extremely difficult if not impossible. And how exactly are we supposed to assess or resolve this kind of fears when you're pointing to timescales of thousands, no, tens of thousands of years. There's no evidence that could possibly satisfy that kind of demand. Maybe vaccinations will make us sterile over a thousand years because genetics can never be fully understood, okay sure whatever, but does that mean we still shouldn't use them?

But more importantly, you've failed to respond to my more pressing point:

Unless there's a baseline "version" of a food's genetic code that we all agree is the starting point, there's no way to even say something is "unmodified". You can't just arbitrarily pick a point in a food's genetic development and say everything before this was "natural" and everything after was "unnatural".

The genetic code of corn doesn't build up to "safe and healthy" and then stay there. It's just as likely to have a bad mutation today as it was a hundred years ago, or a thousand years ago. By your logic, every single time there is a genetic change to corn we should have eaten it for thousands of years before considering that change "safe". But it's not like the we went from small corn to big corn in one day and then spent ten thousand years eating it without anymore genetic changes. It was constantly in a state of change the whole time, whether we knew about it or not.

The corn you eat today is not like the corn that existed 100 years ago. The corn that existed two hundred years ago is not like the corn that existed 500 year ago, which is not like the corn that existed 1000 years ago, or 2,000 years ago. We've eaten "corn" for thousands of years, but it's been different genetically for every generation. Should the Indigenous peoples have refused to eat it when it began to change appearance? Should the immigrant farmers of the Great Plains sworn it off because it wasn't genetically identical to the corn eaten by Indians?

The whole point of knowledge and science is so that we can take out the whole "survival of the fittest" part of life. We don't have to needlessly rely on death to maybe point us in the right direction because we can discover the answer with our minds. What good is knowledge if it burns at the altar of fear?
 
It's kind of remarkable that despite Bernie's loss in NY, which reduced his long string of pledged delegate gains from 109 to 78, he beat Obama's result in 08, by two points (58/42 vs 60/40), despite his lack of support from African Americans, who largely supported Obama in 08.

Bottom line: I'm not sure Bernie supporters should give up all hope just yet, but next Tuesday could indeed be decisive.

P.S. If it is indeed true that some polling station opening times were, just the other week, switched from 6 A.M. to noon, thus reducing the voting opportunities for some hard working voters, that is fuckery of the highest order. I also saw reports of stations that were supposed to open at 6 A.M., opening after 8 A.M., so again, likely preventing some who work from voting...

P.P.S. How is it that in this year's Democratic primaries, when exit polls are consistently nothing like the actual result, only Bernie supporters are crying foul, and the probability of this compounded level of a discrepency is massive?
 
I've noted this before but he basically seems like an old soldier of the left.

I.e. simply against Big Whatever.

So tired of privileged white people driving up our carbon output by fighting things like nuclear power and GMO, both of which reduce our carbon footprint immensely.

Hippies. Ugh.
 
It's important to keep an open mind about all scientific research, especially for those performing the research, but all these same arguments could be applied to the vaccines vs autism.


This kind of sounds like hogwash to be honest. There's no evidence besides your feelings that speeding the process up would be harmful.

At this stage a GMO label is about as useful as a vaccine warning against neurological diseases.


The argument is not the same. Labeling a GMO food as a GMO food is stating a fact. There is no known relationship between autism and vaccinations.
 
Daniel B·;201579718 said:
P.P.S. How is it that in this year's Democratic primaries, when exit polls are consistently nothing like the actual result, only Bernie supporters are crying foul, and the probability of this compounded level of a discrepency is massive?

1. Hillary is suing Arizona, not Bernie, so Bernie people aren't the only one "crying foul."

2. The polling has been very accurate. Michigan being the only real outlier. Hillary has mostly won by about how much she was predicted to win. Sometimes she's overperformed in wins, sometimes she underperformed in losses...which is expected.
 
Really shocked at those Indiana numbers, thought Cruz would be comfortably 10+

trumpmentum!

Daniel B·;201579718 said:
It's kind of remarkable that despite Bernie's loss in NY, which reduced his long string of pledged delegate gains from 109 to 78, he beat Obama's result in 08, by two points (58/42 vs 60/40), despite his lack of support from African Americans, who largely supported Obama in 08.

Bottom line: I'm not sure Bernie supporters should give up all hope just yet, but next Tuesday could indeed be decisive.

P.S. If it is indeed true that some polling station opening times were, just the other week, switched from 6 A.M. to noon, thus reducing the voting opportunities for some hard working voters, that is fuckery of the highest order. I also saw reports of stations that were supposed to open at 6 A.M., opening after 8 A.M., so again, likely preventing some who work from voting...

P.P.S. How is it that in this year's Democratic primaries, when exit polls are consistently nothing like the actual result, only Bernie supporters are crying foul, and the probability of this compounded level of a discrepency is massive?

woo boy, this is quite the post
 
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