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PoliGAF 2016 |OT5| Archdemon Hillary Clinton vs. Lice Traffic Jam

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NeoXChaos

Member
CggnUeaXEAQjUY7.jpg:large


https://twitter.com/gdebenedetti
 

dramatis

Member
Thanks a lot, that's the kind of answer I was looking for.
the specifics are different but the idea is the same.
It's mostly a data quality issue on the registration list, there's ways to do it but it needs funding so I guess there's no easy solution.
With the way you presented the way the system is working I don't think you can point to voter fraud being the issue.
Thing is for the most part it works, but when there are millions of people voting, the chance of any error is high.

The thing is that you're not going to count 100M ballots multiple times, all polling stations will recount their own ballots multiple times.
There shouldn't be a polling station handling more than a set number of votes (they're based on population after all) so if the people handling the polling station don't mess up it should always be consistent.
The polling stations are only set up for one day. At the end of the day, the ballots are locked in boxes that are taken to a central location, usually the Board of Elections, and then people there have to count. The data stick that is taken out of the counting machine goes to the Board of Elections too. The provisional, non-machine-cast ballots also go to Board of Elections.

In NYC, there are 5 boroughs and there are a Board of Elections office in each borough, but even in Brooklyn alone (1 borough) there are 800k+ registered voters. If you get maybe 18% of the total registered voters to vote, it would still be 144k ballots that the staff at the board office has to recount. Not to mention the manpower needed to handle provisional ballots, which have to have their information verified and checked to ensure the ballot can count for the election.

It's not possible for every polling station to remain open for every recount that's asked for.
 
Trump is moderate on LGBT issues but his entire campaign is hatred towards people of color and his entire philosophy is misogyny.

"Social issues"=/="LGBT issues" entirely.

I don't see how not giving a shit is a moderate issue, and no just because that many Republicans are vehemently against gays doesn't mean not caring to help is more okay. Many establishment Republicans don't care really.
 

ampere

Member

Tad's yacht won't buy itself

I didn't say that he would do anything that his state developed a consensus for. However, in this case, it is obvious that he didn't view the consensus as objectionable.

And the "health concerns" quote is fine given the context of his referencing. In other words, given the uncertainty with regard to the long term effects of GMO foods (if any), the medical community takes health awareness of GMO foods seriously. Awareness that there's uncertainty is not the same as awareness that something shady is going on.

You will not find any quote of Bernie Sanders claiming that GMOs are bad for you, so let's not misrepresent his position.

Modern bananas have been around a long time! I'd venture to guess that there hasn't been any findings to them causing health issues, but maybe Bernie knows something I don't.

The anti-GMO stance of today is "we need to label GMOs so consumers have a choice". Let's not use flowery language and make Bernie's stance look any better than it is.
 
I'm all ears. Clearly that's not the goal of labeling, as the fear-mongering on his own website shows.

What's the benefit to this?

People only want to know because they are scared of GMOs



Agree. Trump is an asshole and a bigot, but he doesn't seethe evil like Cruz.

If there are benefits to GMO labels, companies will do it themselves at their own dime.

If we find any shred of scientific evidence that certain kinds of genetic modifications are harmful, we can regulate that type of modification specifically at that point in time.


This is really quite simple for anyone beholden to a basic level of science-based evidence.




No, the quote is not fine. It's fear-mongering in its purest form.

I've had this discussion before, but basically I suggested labeling in a way that was clear that there is no current evidence to suggest that GMO foods are harmful, though research is still underway. No fearmongering tactic has ever made such statements, as it would quell fears, not enforce them.


On the note of Sanders' views on GMOs and anti-science fear mongering, what's his logic for wanting to phase out nuclear power? I admire his strong rhetoric about global warming, but that only makes his opposition to nuclear all the more baffling.

From what I understand, the scientific advisers have been strongly pushing solar/wind/geothermal to the environmental committee, and Bernie is simply listening to them.

He's not so much anti-nuclear as he is in believing that other alternatives are more important.



Tad's yacht won't buy itself



Modern bananas have been around a long time! I'd venture to guess that there hasn't been any findings to them causing health issues, but maybe Bernie knows something I don't.

The anti-GMO stance of today is "we need to label GMOs so consumers have a choice". Let's not use flowery language and make Bernie's stance look any better than it is.

Let's not conflate the length of existence of GMO foods (something that has been happening naturally for eons, BTW) with the length of reputable scientific studies on GMO foods. Relatively speaking, the research has not reached the long term.
 

hawk2025

Member
I've had this discussion before, but basically I suggested labeling in a way that was clear that there is no current evidence to suggest that GMO foods are harmful, though research is still underway. No fearmongering tactic has ever made such statements, as it would quell fears, not enforce them.




From what I understand, the scientific advisers have been strongly pushing solar/wind/geothermal to the environmental committee, and Bernie is simply listening to them.

He's not so much anti-nuclear as he is in believing that other alternatives are more important.

This is still a terrible idea. It's a gigantic and ridiculous waste of everyone's time and resources in the best case scenario, nevermind regulating what actually falls under a GMO label and what doesn't.

If you think "though research is still under way" (something that can be said about anything ever researched) would actually quell fears, I don't know what to say.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
On the note of Sanders' views on GMOs and anti-science fear mongering, what's his logic for wanting to phase out nuclear power? I admire his strong rhetoric about global warming, but that only makes his opposition to nuclear all the more baffling.

Fukushima, issues with storing the nuclear waste, as well as science advisers pushing heavily for other renewable sources.
 

Mael

Member
Thing is for the most part it works, but when there are millions of people voting, the chance of any error is high.

I think if it didn't work people would be in the streets looking for blood, for all the talk about voter's apathy I can't imagine this faring to well.

The polling stations are only set up for one day. At the end of the day, the ballots are locked in boxes that are taken to a central location, usually the Board of Elections, and then people there have to count. The data stick that is taken out of the counting machine goes to the Board of Elections too. The provisional, non-machine-cast ballots also go to Board of Elections.

In NYC, there are 5 boroughs and there are a Board of Elections office in each borough, but even in Brooklyn alone (1 borough) there are 800k+ registered voters. If you get maybe 18% of the total registered voters to vote, it would still be 144k ballots that the staff at the board office has to recount. Not to mention the manpower needed to handle provisional ballots, which have to have their information verified and checked to ensure the ballot can count for the election.

It's not possible for every polling station to remain open for every recount that's asked for.
Ok this makes sense.
There seems to be needless complications with provisional ballots and voting machines.
Due to the election not taking place in 1 day that is off and having a significant portion of the vote being provisional you cannot have a simple system to count them.
It actually make sense to have machine handle the heavy lifting for the voting system.
It's the sort of reasons that explains some of the choices made and the effects they have on the process.
It's basically the 1rst US election I follow from this side of the pond and the information you can get from foreign media is partial at best (if you think the US media is pushing for the horse race....oh boy).
I guess you can make an argument for voting machine in the US but that wouldn't work everywhere at all.
 

hawk2025

Member
Oh god, everything is terrible. Also, I wonder if mutation breeding deserves a label under this same "informational only" reasoning.

Depends.

Let's allow for GMO labelling, so we can also open yet another venue for lobbying and price discrimination to determine such details. Yay!
 
I would love for GMO's to be labeled.

But I want everything that has ever been modified for consumption to be labeled a GMO. When everything is GMO nothing is GMO
 
This is still a terrible idea. It's a gigantic and ridiculous waste of everyone's time and resources in the best case scenario, nevermind regulating what actually falls under a GMO label and what doesn't.

If you think "though research is still under way" (something that can be said about anything ever researched) would actually quell fears, I don't know what to say.

I'm thinking that "currently there is no evidence to suggest that GMO foods are harmful for consumption" is pretty clear on the safety of the food.

Anyway, I'm pretty pro-information when it comes to consumerism, so as long as it's clear that GMO foods don't appear to be harmful, I'm totally fine with the labeling if the majority of Americans are willing to spend their taxes on it.

It should be noted that Bernie believes the decision should be left up to the State.


I would love for GMO's to be labeled.

But I want everything that has ever been modified for consumption to be labeled a GMO. When everything is GMO nothing is GMO

This would actually be awesome, lol
 
I've had this discussion before, but basically I suggested labeling in a way that was clear that there is no current evidence to suggest that GMO foods are harmful, though research is still underway. No fearmongering tactic has ever made such statements, as it would quell fears, not enforce them.

This argument can be used to support the labeling of literally any product on Earth. "Warning: There is no current evidence to support that wearing natural fibers causes cancer." People don't care what it says; they see a warning label and think "well if there was no reason to think it was harmful, they wouldn't require a label!" And that's a valid line of reasoning; why require a label on something that has been scientifically demonstrated to be safe? If further research shows that there is a definitive link between GMOs and health risks, then by all means, label them. But you're putting the cart before the horse when you label a safe product as "maybe it's dangerous?" rather than waiting for a single shred of evidence that supports that conclusion.
 
This argument can be used to support the labeling of literally any product on Earth. "Warning: There is no current evidence to support that wearing natural fibers causes cancer." People don't care what it says; they see a warning label and think "well if there was no reason to think it was harmful, they wouldn't require a label!" And that's a valid line of reasoning; why require a label on something that has been scientifically demonstrated to be safe? If further research shows that there is a definitive link between GMOs and health risks, then by all means, label them. But you're putting the cart before the horse when you label a safe product as "maybe it's dangerous?" rather than waiting for a single shred of evidence that supports that conclusion.

It doesn't need to be a warning label. More like 'free range chicken' labels.
 

Zornack

Member
He's not so much anti-nuclear as he is in believing that other alternatives are more important.

Bernie has called for a moratorium on nuclear power plant license renewals in the United States.

He's anti-nuclear.

I also find this hilarious:

"Ever the financial watchdog, Bernie has also questioned why the federal government invests billions into federal subsidies for the nuclear industry."

How are you supposed to incentive alternative, clean energy without subsidies? Just tax oil and gas until they aren't economically viable? Yeah, that'll definitely work out fine. Or are subsides to nuclear bad but subsidies to solar and wind just fine?

Let's not conflate the length of existence of GMO foods (something that has been happening naturally for eons, BTW) with the length of reputable scientific studies on GMO foods. Relatively speaking, the research has not reached the long term.

If the research hasn't been done then why is Sanders claiming that the medical community has raised health concerns about GMOs?
 
I don't understand how you can be pro-science and not understand the psychology of labels.

It doesn't need to be a warning label. More like 'free range chicken' labels.

You realize the equivalent of that is a label for food that is "Organic", not a requirement that all non-organic food be labelled. Putting aside the incredibly mushy definitions for 'organic' obviously.
 

hawk2025

Member
I'm thinking that "currently there is no evidence to suggest that GMO foods are harmful for consumption" is pretty clear on the safety of the food.

Anyway, I'm pretty pro-information when it comes to consumerism, so as long as it's clear that GMO foods don't appear to be harmful, I'm totally fine with the labeling if the majority of Americans are willing to spend their taxes on it.

It should be noted that Bernie believes the decision should be left up to the State.

As has been repeated again, and again, and again, irrelevant information distorts markets and can have significant negative effects. Reducing the issue to that ignores what the actual crux of the discussion is in the first place.

If your point is along the lines of "I understand that adding this may impact markets -- I think it's worth the risk despite zero evidence of gains for consumers", by all means, defend away. But you need to acknowledge the risks, not just brush them aside.

Finally -- "The decision should be left up to the State" is a political position that lost all its diversion power decades ago.
 
Okay, this may be a pretty tasteless joke, but I have to think that if Bernie was a young, female candidate, people would never shut up about the fact that college kids kept throwing 10s and 20s at the campaign.
 
I don't think it should be framed as "Should GMOs be labelled." It should be "Should for companies be forced to label them." Given that there seems to be no scientific basis to justify a label, I don't think there's a legal basis to justify mandating labels. If a consumer really wants to know whether their food has GMOs, there are hundreds of brands that voluntarily give them that info. They can vote with their wallets.
 
It doesn't need to be a warning label. More like 'free range chicken' labels.

So voluntarily done as a marketing tool rather than required by the government? I'm fine with that. If there's a significant population that absolutely does not want to consume GMO products, let companies produce those products and advertise them as such; a good marketplace solution (which already happens). Requiring the government get involved is nonsense.
 

hawk2025

Member
I don't think it should be framed as "Should GMOs be labelled." It should be "Should for companies be forced to label them." Given that there seems to be no scientific basis to justify a label, I don't think there's a legal basis to justify mandating labels. If a consumer really wants to know whether their food has GMOs, there are hundreds of brands that voluntarily give them that info. They can vote with their wallets.

Exactly.

We can regulate it and mandate labels to specific types of modifications when we find evidence that those types of modifications are harmful in any way.

Which is something that is lost in this whole discussion: If we mandate GMO labelling now with no actual thought about what we are actually labelling, what happens if we find that specific modifications are harmful?

Add another label on top of it? Call it something else, and label it again? How do we not confuse customers with this?
 

PBY

Banned
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 48s49 seconds ago
Pretty good polls for Trump lately. Plausible his railing about how the system is rigged is helping him to pick up a voters at the margin.
 

Mael

Member
So voluntarily done as a marketing tool rather than required by the government? I'm fine with that. If there's a significant population that absolutely does not want to consume GMO products, let companies produce those products and advertise them as such; a good marketplace solution (which already happens). Requiring the government get involved is nonsense.

Actually if you have an independent body that check that the labels aren't BS that would work.
I mean that's pretty much why people are asking for a government mandated label.
 
My only concern with GMOs (which may be borne of ignorance) is the patenting of seeds and how SCOTUS rulings might harm farmers.

In terms of genetic engeneering, we've always bred plants. Corn in the wild before it was cross-bred to be what it now is was tough and inedible (or nearly so), as one example. I am sure that there is the possibility of a bad cross-breed in a lab, but I'd assume the same to be possible if someone was cross-breeding plants Mendel-style or just like the first farmers did.
 
More posting than I've ever done, I think!

The thing is that you're not going to count 100M ballots multiple times, all polling stations will recount their own ballots multiple times.
There shouldn't be a polling station handling more than a set number of votes (they're based on population after all) so if the people handling the polling station don't mess up it should always be consistent.


The total vote count should be 100% accurate.
Of course even if people mess up and there's errors the margin shouldn't be an issue as most elections aren't close anyway (and in that case I believe the US does it better as the mechanisms for recounts make sense there).

Our population is huge, and counting is super imprecise anyway. Ask someone to count 1000ish pieces of paper. They'll get it wrong. The reason no one cares is because the cause is also the solution; there are so many damn people that a ballot getting stuck to another one isn't going to do anything. The whole "every vote counts" is just a platitude; statistically, that one vote isn't tipping any election (and if it did, there'd be mandatory recounts for weeks if it was that close).

So if his state wanted produce picked by latinos labeled, he's support that too.



He's a pandering liar.

I can't state enough how much Bernie's GMO stance is idiotic, and nuclear. Both of them are using science to improve living conditions. Wasn't there some poll that asked people if food made with dihydrogen monoxide should be labeled, and a frighteningly high number said yes? Idiots, the lot of them.

My problem is that most of the incentives have no economic basis for government to be incentivizing them. And reducing the complications facing citizens would be better than nothing, but that still doesn't fix the underlying problem.

“There’s a mighty big difference between good, sound reasons
and reasons that sound good.” - Burton Hillis

Simplifying the tax code seems to apply here to me. I get wanting to do your taxes on a postcard, but the better solution is to just make the IRS do it for you, and then you pay what they say you owe (which is sort of how we do it now, it's not like they don't check to see what you've paid).

On the note of Sanders' views on GMOs and anti-science fear mongering, what's his logic for wanting to phase out nuclear power? I admire his strong rhetoric about global warming, but that only makes his opposition to nuclear all the more baffling.

See above: He's being an idiot.



Screen-Shot-2014-06-19-at-9.43.46-AM.png


Oh god, everything is terrible. Also, I wonder if mutation breeding deserves a label under this same "informational only" reasoning.

Also see above re: that poll I think someone took. People aren't super bright on scientific topics, and I think it's hypocritical to only laugh at climate change deniers when we've got our own idiots on the left.
 
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538 48s49 seconds ago
Pretty good polls for Trump lately. Plausible his railing about how the system is rigged is helping him to pick up a voters at the margin.

Trump is straight up killing it right now. However, I think his supporters aren't going to like his views on transgender individuals.
 

dramatis

Member
I think if it didn't work people would be in the streets looking for blood, for all the talk about voter's apathy I can't imagine this faring to well.


Ok this makes sense.
There seems to be needless complications with provisional ballots and voting machines.
Due to the election not taking place in 1 day that is off and having a significant portion of the vote being provisional you cannot have a simple system to count them.
It actually make sense to have machine handle the heavy lifting for the voting system.
It's the sort of reasons that explains some of the choices made and the effects they have on the process.
It's basically the 1rst US election I follow from this side of the pond and the information you can get from foreign media is partial at best (if you think the US media is pushing for the horse race....oh boy).
I guess you can make an argument for voting machine in the US but that wouldn't work everywhere at all.
Provisional ballots aren't a needless complication. If a voter believes he is properly registered and it is the mistake of the board of elections that he isn't on the voter registration list, then the voter has a right to cast a ballot, and that is why provisional ballots exist. I think they are a necessary procedure in the process, even if they create more work at the end of the day.

There are states where the vote is cast by machine, and other states which you mark a ballot and run it through a machine. Sometimes the machines can be old-style machines. In NYC at the end of the day a long information tape is printed from each machine we have and sent to the board of elections with the flash drive from each machine. This is the means by which the votes will be counted, but if a candidate seriously challenges the board for a recount, the ballot boxes will be opened to count the ballots directly. If the machine was operating incorrectly, then keeping the individual ballots is not so 'needless'. No matter what, when you operate hundreds of machines there is always the chance that one of them breaks down. It isn't a needless complication, it's a complication that isn't asked for but can happen anyway.
 

PBY

Banned
Trump is straight up killing it right now. However, I think his supporters aren't going to like his views on transgender individuals.

Its actually weird - Trump can do anything and won't lose support with his core. So going "middle" actually isn't that risky for him.
 

Mael

Member
Screen-Shot-2014-06-19-at-9.43.46-AM.png


Oh god, everything is terrible. Also, I wonder if mutation breeding deserves a label under this same "informational only" reasoning.
Actually I would interested in cooking these, lol
Our population is huge, and counting is super imprecise anyway. Ask someone to count 1000ish pieces of paper. They'll get it wrong. The reason no one cares is because the cause is also the solution; there are so many damn people that a ballot getting stuck to another one isn't going to do anything. The whole "every vote counts" is just a platitude; statistically, that one vote isn't tipping any election (and if it did, there'd be mandatory recounts for weeks if it was that close).

And that's where you lose me.
There's processes to count ballot to avoid counting wrong, that's why counting ballots is usually a lengthy process.
And unless I'm mistaken it's not 1 guy counting 1 ballot box.
I find the argument that "well there's plenty of papers and you get to count it by hand by 1 guy, of course he's going to get it wrong but it's ok because he only forgot to count 5 votes in this box of 1000" a bit short.
 
We shouldn't even talk about GMOs until we can actually agree on what it's being modified from. The idea that food came to us fully formed in some pristine genetic state and not through the same processes of evolution and genetic alterations that created us is ridiculous. Food is constantly undergoing genetic modification, just as all living things are. Whether those changes occur through random mutations, induced random mutations, or deliberate modification doesn't really matter; it's not the process we should worry about, it's the changes.

Unless there's a baseline "version" of a food's genetic code that we all agree is the starting point, there's no way to even say something is "unmodified". You can't just arbitrarily pick a point in a food's genetic development and say everything before this was "natural" and everything after was "unnatural".
 
Bernie has called for a moratorium on nuclear power plant license renewals in the United States.

He's anti-nuclear.

I also find this hilarious:

"Ever the financial watchdog, Bernie has also questioned why the federal government invests billions into federal subsidies for the nuclear industry."

How are you supposed to incentive alternative, clean energy without subsidies? Just tax oil and gas until they aren't economically viable? Yeah, that'll definitely work out fine. Or are subsides to nuclear bad but subsidies to solar and wind just fine?



If the research hasn't been done then why is Sanders claiming that the medical community has raised health concerns about GMOs?

My point was that his stance on nuclear energy is directly related to his stance on other alternatives, not because he views nuclear as inherently terrible; just not worth the cost/risks when there are better alternatives.

As for GMO research, I never said that no research has been conducted. I said it has not reached the long term. The medical community is concerned about the uncertainty that naturally arises from a lack of long term research.

I don't understand how you can be pro-science and not understand the psychology of labels.



You realize the equivalent of that is a label for food that is "Organic", not a requirement that all non-organic food be labelled. Putting aside the incredibly mushy definitions for 'organic' obviously.

Are scientists not allowed to have disagreements on how scientific topics should be communicated?

As has been repeated again, and again, and again, irrelevant information distorts markets and can have significant negative effects. Reducing the issue to that ignores what the actual crux of the discussion is in the first place.

If your point is along the lines of "I understand that adding this may impact markets -- I think it's worth the risk despite zero evidence of gains for consumers", by all means, defend away. But you need to acknowledge the risks, not just brush them aside.

Finally -- "The decision should be left up to the State" is a political position that lost all its diversion power decades ago.

Yes, it will impact the markets. But again, if Americans wanna pay for it, I say let them.

Finally, as another poster alluded to, if everything is GMO labeled, people really won't be concerned about it. Not only doesn't that shut up fearmongerers, but people learn something else about the world; most food is genetically engineered :)
 
Its actually weird - Trump can do anything and won't lose support with his core. So going "middle" actually isn't that risky for him.
Plus he protected his "political correctness" flank a bit by coming out against putting Tubman on the $20.

Amazing watching Cruz's entire staff jump out the window on this trans bathroom issue. This isn't the issue you want to exploit when people view you as a jerk and the general election is coming.
 

Mael

Member
Provisional ballots aren't a needless complication. If a voter believes he is properly registered and it is the mistake of the board of elections that he isn't on the voter registration list, then the voter has a right to cast a ballot, and that is why provisional ballots exist. I think they are a necessary procedure in the process, even if they create more work at the end of the day.

I guess it's difference of system.
To begin with the primary process in the US is unique so the whole party affiliation is unique to the US.
As for whether or not you're in the list, it's nice that if you're past the deadline you can still vote somehow. In France if you're not in the list past the deadline you simply do not vote.
I would argue that my position is reasonable but it's not my call to make and in the end if people in the US consider it necessary it's their call.

There are states where the vote is cast by machine, and other states which you mark a ballot and run it through a machine. Sometimes the machines can be old-style machines. In NYC at the end of the day a long information tape is printed from each machine we have and sent to the board of elections with the flash drive from each machine. This is the means by which the votes will be counted, but if a candidate seriously challenges the board for a recount, the ballot boxes will be opened to count the ballots directly. If the machine was operating incorrectly, then keeping the individual ballots is not so 'needless'. No matter what, when you operate hundreds of machines there is always the chance that one of them breaks down. It isn't a needless complication, it's a complication that isn't asked for but can happen anyway.

Point taken.
If you introduce a machine you have to take into account maintenance.
 
so based on current projections for the remaining states in the race, the probability that Sanders wins more than 2025 pledged delegates is 0.018%. (for reference, that's lower than the probability that you'll lose a limb in a chainsaw accident.)

and that's probably overstating the chances, given that this dude's projections have pennsylvania as a 3-point race when it's probably 15.

not that any of us were unaware, but interesting to see it as an actual concrete number now
 
So voluntarily done as a marketing tool rather than required by the government? I'm fine with that. If there's a significant population that absolutely does not want to consume GMO products, let companies produce those products and advertise them as such; a good marketplace solution (which already happens). Requiring the government get involved is nonsense.

I'd support this solution, yes.
 

hawk2025

Member
"If Americans want to pay for it, let them" is nonsense.

It assumes americans are perfectly capable of figuring out the economic trade-offs of a labeling decision, but incapable of understanding the impact of GMOs without labels.

I don't think I need to elaborate further on how likely that is to be true.
 
We shouldn't even talk about GMOs until we can actually agree on what it's being modified from. The idea that food came to us fully formed in some pristine genetic state and not through the same processes of evolution and genetic alterations that created us is ridiculous. Food is constantly undergoing genetic modification, just as all living things are. Whether those changes occur through random mutations, induced random mutations, or deliberate modification doesn't really matter; it's not the process we should worry about, it's the changes.

Unless there's a baseline "version" of a food's genetic code that we all agree is the starting point, there's no way to even say something is "unmodified". You can't just arbitrarily pick a point in a food's genetic development and say everything before this was "natural" and everything after was "unnatural".

Or you could just label everything as GMO and get everybody to shut up :p
 
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