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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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Why would Cameron be out by the end of the year? Heard a lot of people mention this but I don't really understand why. Failure of leadership or something?

The Tories were divided on this. He staked a lot on trying to keep the UK in the EU. Boris was always going to be a threat to his leadership. I feel that Boris would make his move. It'd make his stock worth a lot more. Although, there was a letter tonight with 80 some odd lead leaning Tories who said they'd support Cameron staying on...so maybe he can hang on.

I wish this would force Labour to toss out Corybn, though.
 
The Tories were divided on this. He staked a lot on trying to keep the UK in the EU. Boris was always going to be a threat to his leadership. I feel that Boris would make his move. It'd make his stock worth a lot more. Although, there was a letter tonight with 80 some odd lead leaning Tories who said they'd support Cameron staying on...so maybe he can hang on.

I wish this would force Labour to toss out Corybn, though.

Corbyn has been such a disaster.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Does the government actually have to follow the vote?

Apparently not, if it's close enough where the depressed turnout due to weather in London would have flipped it, it's going to put them in a tough spot.
 

watershed

Banned
The possibility of Kaine as the VP pick is just dull and boring. And at this point, I'm not very enthused by the idea of an all white ticket.
 
What's the point of a referendum if the result is to be ignored?

Leaving will be a mess but the people decided.

It is not legally binding, no. However, I cannot fathom a universe in which Parliament won't pass the necessary laws to exit.

I mean, this seems like something that should require a supermajority. I wouldn't trust a majority up and down vote in the US for something like this.
 

thefro

Member
It is not legally binding, no. However, I cannot fathom a universe in which Parliament won't pass the necessary laws to exit.

Logically you'd pass a law putting the exit date a few years out to give you time to untangle everything and get new trade agreements, etc.

Just saying "lol we leave tomorrow" would be stupid.
 
ok so now that the UK has a very real chance of leaving the EU (or rather the referendum being in favor for Leave), realistically what are the most likely immediate consequences globally and for the US?
 
I want to fight Boris Johnson and everybody in UKIP.

David Cameron is a total dipshit. He makes deep cuts in social services during a recession, allows every brown immigrant into the country to be the scapegoat for his terrible economic policies, and then thinks he'll easily win a referendum on leaving the UK when anti-immigrant sentiment, tied heavily to the economic woes of working class people, is at a fever pitch.

Don't fuck this up for the United States, UK.
 
ok so now that the UK has a very real chance of leaving the EU (or rather the referendum being in favor for Leave), realistically what are the most likely immediate consequences globally and for the US?

Who knows? It all depends on how they do it. If the time-table is super drawn out, that could mediate some of the effects. However, I can't see people being okay with that; the Leave camp is super angry (a la Tea Party), so they'll rage if it's not quick enough.

I'd imagine that we'd be seriously looking at any and all trade deals we have with them; all of those deals are predicated on the UK being backed by the EU in some way. It's been my biggest argument against Leave (as an American); you simply can't expect the US to just sit back and trust that every deal we have with the UK will stay in place. The context has changed, and that changes the terms of the deal.
 
Logically you'd pass a law putting the exit date a few years out to give you time to untangle everything and get new trade agreements, etc.

Just saying "lol we leave tomorrow" would be stupid.

There will definitely be a process.

There was also this asinine idea that they would call for a GE and try to elect a new government arguing that the new GE would trump the referendum. But, I doubt that will happen. They'll have to untangle themselves from the EU, and it will take some time. It will still be hugely damaging to the UK economy and worldwide markets, though.
 
BREXIT would cause recession in US and lead to single term Hillary.

I think Scotland should secede from UK and remain in EU. During the Independence vote, one of the deciding factors was that rejoining the EU would be hard and painful. Well, it'll be impossible if they remain in the UK!
 
Trump getting a proper and thorough ball washing on cnn as of ten minutes ago. Anderson and his panel were discussing trump's visit to scotland, someone said trump's is the right vision for our country and another person said Obama spent ten percent of his presidency golfing. fucking liberal media
 
BREXIT would cause recession in US and lead to single term Hillary.

I think Scotland should secede from UK and remain in EU. During the Independence vote, one of the deciding factors was that rejoining the EU would be hard and painful. Well, it'll be impossible if they remain in the UK!

If Leave wins there will be another referendum for sure
 

hawk2025

Member
My one disappointment with the Brexit thread is that nib95 is nowhere to be seen.

I very much look forward to his rationalization of how much dumber the US is with this vote being this close.
 

Rebel Leader

THE POWER OF BUTTERSCOTCH BOTTOMS
Trump getting a proper and thorough ball washing on cnn as of ten minutes ago. Anderson and his panel were discussing trump's visit to scotland, someone said trump's is the right vision for our country and another person said Obama spent ten percent of his presidency golfing. fucking liberal media

meanwhile

presvacationssocial.jpg
 

B-Dubs

No Scrubs
My one disappointment with the Brexit thread is that nib95 is nowhere to be seen.

I very much look forward to his rationalization of how much dumber the US is with this vote being this close.

If anything this proves that the US is the smart one because we never intentionally tanked our economy or elected a Boris/Trump.
 
I'm just so glad Trump is toxic to so many...because, fuck. If the anti-immigrant shit can carry the UK...my god, the people in the US could fuck us over so hard.
 
Sounds like it. The UK can't seriously be dumb enough to select leave though, can they? I mean if they did it that'd mean they're dumber than we are because Boris is likely going to be PM if it happens.

Referendum: Are you super duper sure you want to leave the EU?

No
Not sure
Maybe
 
Presidents are never truly on vacation. While I enjoy trolling republicans with the vacation day totals in that picture, at the end of the day that job is so demanding that escaping the bubble to "vacation" just means you've gone from working at home to working at your old home.
 
The UK is clearly unsatisfied with it's status in the world and it's glory days behind it, and has enacted vengeance on us all in the from of trying to tank the world economy.

I hope the UK gets invaded by White Walkers
 

kirblar

Member
I'm just so glad Trump is toxic to so many...because, fuck. If the anti-immigrant shit can carry the UK...my god, the people in the US could fuck us over so hard.
Minorities are saving white people from themselves.

It's what keeps the EU crap from happening on a national level.
 

Emarv

Member
This is all leadup to the immigrant isolationism and self-important Britain seen in Children of Men right before Trump ends the rest of the world.

Edit: Crap, top of the page.
 

Plinko

Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
If Brexit happens and tanks the economy, couldn't Hillary pretty much tie that result to Trump's beliefs?
 
Comparing Wales with the US South is interesting. Both are "welfare states" that get out more than they put in, yet vote to get rid of that system because they have no damn idea how much government actually helps them. And then it's naturally the government's fault when things go wrong. This is the cycle starting to turn over in a lot of GOP-led states, unfortunately.

Democracy was a mistake. Practice slogan for November.
If Brexit happens and tanks the economy, couldn't Hillary pretty much tie that result to Trump's beliefs?
He said he was in favor, so, I guess? Though he also said he didn't know why he was in favor of leaving.
 
Senior Labour officials said on BBC that they expect Leave to win.

Cameron has to be done. He absolutely has to be done.

He fucking screwed the pig on this one.
 

Emarv

Member
If Brexit happens and tanks the economy, couldn't Hillary pretty much tie that result to Trump's beliefs?

This would be my message. "Trump supports this idea that is tanking the British economy and leading to more racial resentment, home and abroad".
 
My concern is a tiny little dip in the US will start a snowball effect and cause a recession we were probably going to get eventually anyway.

It just needs to hold until November.

It's not a one-day process, it will take years for the UK to leave the EU.

The EU and US will probably accelerate the free trade deal though.
 
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