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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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E

Ecotic

Member
New Washington Post-ABC Poll

Nevertheless, in a head-to-head general election matchup, Clinton leads Trump 51 percent to 39 percent among registered voters nationwide, the poll found. This is Clinton’s largest lead in Post-ABC polling since last fall and a dramatic reversal from last month’s survey, which found the race statistically tied, with Trump at 46 percent and Clinton at 44 percent.

As the hard-fought general election gets underway, Trump’s political standing is on dangerous ground. Fifty-six percent of the public at large say the celebrity business mogul stands against their beliefs, while 64 percent say he does not have the necessary credentials to be president. Fifty-six percent feel strongly that he is unqualified.

Nearly one-third of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say Trump is flatly unqualified for office, and 18 percent say he does not represent their beliefs, exposing deep fissures in the GOP base as Trump struggles to unite conservatives going into next month’s national convention in Cleveland.
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w-poll-0626-1.jpg
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T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
What the fuck is with it and far left candidates thinking every single fucking issue on Earth is because of wealth inequality?

No, forget the number one reason people voted leave was immigration, it was actually because of the trade deals and stuff
 
M

Maledict

Member
adam387 said:
I have a tendency to overestimate the importance of Scotland. Since my ancestors were from there, perhaps it's a generic predisposition. The interesting thing is going to see if the Lib Dems can position themselves as the pro EU party. After 2010, though, I learned to not put my lot in with them.
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To be fair, Scotland punches about its weight politically in a way a lot of people ignore - it has consistently produced politicians of world class calibre for decades now. There's a reason despite it having less than half the population of London that Scottish people have been at the heart of government for so long, in both parties. It's also why the current Scottish leaders of each party look a damn site better than the national equivalents (and to be fair most of them are gay as well, so naturally better!).

Scotland massively outperforms when it comes to politicians. Always has done.
 
S

Slayven

Member
TheLostBigBoss said:
What the fuck is with it and far left candidates thinking every single fucking issue on Earth is because of wealth inequality?

No, forget the number one reason people voted leave was immigration, it was actually because of the trade deals and stuff
Click to expand...

When all you have is a hammer, every problem starts to look like a nail.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Maledict said:
To be fair, Scotland punches about its weight politically in a way a lot of people ignore - it has consistently produced politicians of world class calibre for decades now. There's a reason despite it having less than half the population of London that Scottish people have been at the heart of government for so long, in both parties. It's also why the current Scottish leaders of each party look a damn site better than the national equivalents (and to be fair most of them are gay as well, so naturally better!).

Scotland massively outperforms when it comes to politicians. Always has done.
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It's okay to kind of hate Alex Salmond right? I don't know why, but he rubs me the wrong way. It's a personality thing, I think.
 
M

Maledict

Member
adam387 said:
It's okay to mins hate Alex Salmons, right? I don't know why, but he finds me the wrong way. It's a personality thing, I think.
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Don't worry, most Scottish people agree. Nicola Sturgeon replacing him turned out to be the best thing the SNP could have ever done.
 
P

Poodlestrike

Banned
TheLostBigBoss said:
What the fuck is with it and far left candidates thinking every single fucking issue on Earth is because of wealth inequality?

No, forget the number one reason people voted leave was immigration, it was actually because of the trade deals and stuff
Click to expand...

It's a pretty common phenomena everywhere, we just notice it more on the far-left because that's where we're looking. The idea that you've figured things out, that all these complexities have a simple solution... it's an extremely attractive notion.

Maledict said:
Don't worry, most Scottish people agree. Nicola Sturgeon replacing him turned out to be the best thing the SNP could have ever done.
Click to expand...

Salmond?

Sturgeon?

Your politicians might be world-class, but have you considered naming them after things that are not fish?
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Yeah but you are not taking into account 1) Bernie's demand for platform...um...beefing up...of... and 2) Brexit, because as you know the UK pensioners are going to vote for Trump in HUGE number.

Seriously, though, I do feel a slight change in the news cycle compared to last week. Last week was AMAZING though in just how negative it was for Trump. This week he seemingly raised 10MM and forgave like 50MM of debt. That's cray. Last week he had 1MM and had fired his campaign manager.

Oh and Brexit sucked.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
http://adage.com/article/campaign-trail/trump-s-fundraising-email-a-60-spam-rate/304673/

60% of Trump's fundraising email went straight into SPAM.
The Clinton campaign has evinced greater sophistication in its email marketing capabilities than the Trump camp. By Return Path's estimates, the Clinton campaign's email subscriber list is 7.6 times larger than that of the Trump campaign.

The company also reported recently that the Trump camp sent out just 21 different targeted email messages in May, 7.9% of which were marked as spam by people who received them. The Bernie Sanders campaign sent out 272 different email messages, 0.3% of which were deemed spam. Ms. Clinton's campaign sent a whopping 658 different email variations, none of which got the spam label. In general, high spam rejection rates can also suggest some email addresses in a list may have been purchased rather than generated through organic signups.
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I

IggyChooChoo

Member
adam387 said:
I have a tendency to overestimate the importance of Scotland. Since my ancestors were from there, perhaps it's a generic predisposition.
Click to expand...

I do the same thing. It is lightly shocking to realize that Scotland has about 5.3 million people and a GDP of 216 billion, and Kentucky plus West Virginia have a combined population of about 6.2 million people and a GDP of 212 billion.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
Y2Kev said:
Is this a graphing error or was this created by xbox one fans? Why is 51 lower than 50?
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Anecdotally, I've noticed a lot more typos and errors in articles these days. The rush to get news out while it's still newsworthy trumps a proofread.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
adam387 said:
Come on Cheeto Jesus, you beautiful fascist bigot. Hold through July. I will it into existence.
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Can't we take a RNC convention overthrow off the list of things to worry about? It starts in three weeks and there's no real move towards this. No alternative candidate, no press campaign, just a double handful of Don Quixote-ish #nevertrumpers wishcasting.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
I thought some of these comically large margins Hillary had recently were just the usual post nomination boost everyone gets, but it's actually increasing as time goes on, making it seem like it isn't just a bump.
 
S

Slayven

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
Can't we take a RNC convention overthrow off the list of things to worry about? It starts in three weeks and there's no real move towards this. No alternative candidate, no press campaign, just a double handful of Don Quixote-ish #nevertrumpers wishcasting.
Click to expand...

I just can't see it happening, too many big names have already kissed the ring. I think the nevertrumpers will just keep quiet and stay home
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Roland_Gunner said:
Can't we take a RNC convention overthrow off the list of things to worry about? It starts in three weeks and there's no real move towards this. No alternative candidate, no press campaign, just a double handful of Don Quixote-ish #nevertrumpers wishcasting.
Click to expand...

Yep. To be honest I don't doubt that the will is there but there's no candidate to unite behind, and there won't be.
 
F

Frank the Great

Banned
Roland_Gunner said:
Can't we take a RNC convention overthrow off the list of things to worry about? It starts in three weeks and there's no real move towards this. No alternative candidate, no press campaign, just a double handful of Don Quixote-ish #nevertrumpers wishcasting.
Click to expand...

That two-week or so Trump bump fooled too many elected Republicans into endorsing him, because they generally do not understand polling or demographics. There's no walking that back now IMO.

If elected Republicans had stayed on the sidelines longer, they could try to nominate someone else. But they all saw those few polls and rushed to kiss the ring in the hope of cozying up to Trump. And now it's too late. They are trapped.
 
S

Slayven

Member
Frank the Great said:
That two-week or so Trump bump fooled too many elected Republicans into endorsing him, because they generally do not understand polling or demographics. There's no walking that back now IMO.

If elected Republicans had stayed on the sidelines longer, they could try to nominate someone else. But they all saw those few polls and rushed to kiss the ring in the hope of cozying up to Trump. And now it's too late. They are trapped.
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Poor Paul Ryan
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Roland_Gunner said:
I think HRC is going to win by very healthy amount but this poll seems a little too good for the Dems. Last time Obama hit 56% in WaPo was right after bin Laden got got.
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I know it's not exactly apples to apples but Obama is polling well above Reagan at this point in '88 and he ended up over 60% by the end of the year.
 
P

pigeon

Banned
Joe Shlabotnik said:
I know it's not exactly apples to apples but Obama is polling well above Reagan at this point in '88 and he ended up over 60% by the end of the year.
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I think this is an apt comparison, actually. Obama really is the Democratic Reagan. Hopefully it takes the GOP longer to come up with a Clinton.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
First time I can really remember HRC getting above 50% in polling. Very good sign.

Also CBS has her up in NC, which is promising.
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-do...olina-wisconsin-colorado-battleground-states/

Hillary Clinton holds narrow leads over Donald Trump across a number of key states of Florida (up three points, 44 to 41 percent); Colorado (Clinton 40 percent, Trump 39 percent); Wisconsin (Clinton up 41 percent to 36 percent) and North Carolina, which has flipped back and forth between the parties in the last two elections, where it's Clinton 44 percent and Trump 42 percent
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S

Souldriver

Member
pigeon said:
I think this is an apt comparison, actually. Obama really is the Democratic Reagan. Hopefully it takes the GOP longer to come up with a Clinton.
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I think him actively campaigning for Clinton might do a little damage. Right now he looks good for a lot of people because the dirty political game isn't being played by him, but by congress and the two nominees. He seems to be "above" it all.

But once he goes on the campaign trail with Hillary, I think the 50% of this country that votes republican will quickly remember to hate him.
 
M

Manmademan

Member
Roland_Gunner said:
I think HRC is going to win by very healthy amount but this poll seems a little too good for the Dems. Last time Obama hit 56% in WaPo was right after bin Laden got got.
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the GOP narrative has entirely switched away from Obama in favor of hillary. You'd be amazed how fast some people's opinions can change once the GOP noise machine stops endlessly shit talking them.

Obama by all accounts is a good to very good president and has been great in the office. 60% is the minimum of where he should be at this point, especially when compared to what a clusterfuck the GOP house, senate, supreme court justices and presidential candidates have all been over the past 8 years.
 
B

Brinbe

Member
LOL that WSJ spin
http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-...nts-versus-hillary-clinton-1466946000?tesla=y
Donald Trump Weathers Stormy Month, Loses Only 2 Points Versus Hillary Clinton
Clinton leads Trump 46% to 41% in head-to-head matchup in WSJ/NBC News Poll

Republican Donald Trump emerged relatively unscathed from one of the rockiest phases of his campaign, lagging rival Hillary Clinton by 5 percentage points but essentially tied when third-party candidates are included, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll.

The survey of 1,000 registered voters showed Mrs. Clinton leading 46% to 41% in a head-to-head matchup.
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ONLY TWO POINTS!
KuGsj.gif


Saw this on twitter, on the WaPo poll
2pFe9ah.jpg
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
5% is kind of a blow out. I'd take it smiling. Clinton can lose the popular vote by like 2% so this is kind of a 7% cushion.

BUT BREXIT

DAMN YOU, CRAB
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Maher (lol) said this too on his show: but despite all the shit TRUMP has faced, they're almost tied! Well look at it this way: the country is so polarized and so full of racist assholes that Trump could come out and shit on Ruth Bader Ginsburg's face and he'd still get 40% of the vote. American democracy is not competitive. We're fighting over 2-3% in the middle. Clinton being up 5% is a BFD.
 
C

Crisco

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Maher (lol) said this too on his show: but despite all the shit TRUMP has faced, they're almost tied! Well look at it this way: the country is so polarized and so full of racist assholes that Trump could come out and shit on Ruth Bader Ginsburg's face and he'd still get 40% of the vote. American democracy is not competitive. We're fighting over 2-3% in the middle. Clinton being up 5% is a BFD.
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It's really because people don't understand how MOE or confidence intervals work. They see a poll with a 5% lead for one candidate, an MOE that says +/- 5%, and figure "oh, so they are basically tied!". I feel every poll should be prefaced by a layman's explanation of basic statistics.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
Colorado GE:

Clinton 40% (+1)
Trump 39%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%

YouGov/CBSNews

Obama won CO in 2012 by 5%
Click to expand...
http://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/747082654118477825/photo/1

#BREAKING North Carolina GE:

Clinton 44% (+2)
Trump 42%
Johnson (L) 2%
Stein (G) 1%

YouGov/CBSNews

Romney won NC in 2012 by 2 points
Click to expand...

Florida GE:

Clinton 44% (+3)
Trump 41%
Johnson 3
Stein 1

A 2% shift towards Clinton in a month

YouGov/CBSNews

Obama won FL in 12 by 0.9%
Click to expand...
 
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