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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
Aaron Strife said:
Clinton will win the national popular vote by 15 points

Democrats pick up 45 seats in the House (will take stupid avatar for a month voted on by PoliGAF if this one doesn't pass)

10 in the Senate
Click to expand...

Ok I'll take this bet

1) Clinton wins popular vote by 6 points

2) Dems fail to pick up 30 seats and House is still red

3) Dems take control of the Senate in seven seats

So whoever is closer on the scale of 4.5 points to the popular vote wins point 1

If dems take the house you get the win point 2

If dems take the senate with 8-6 seats I win point 3

Winer picks avatar that will be worn till Friday, January 20, 2017

deal?
 
Link

Link

The Autumn Wind
Aaron Strife said:
Clinton will win the national popular vote by 15 points

Democrats pick up 45 seats in the House (will take stupid avatar for a month voted on by PoliGAF if this one doesn't pass)

10 in the Senate
Click to expand...
I mean, I'm not that confident, but if it happens...

giphy.gif
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
TheLostBigBoss said:
Ok I'll take this bet

1) Clinton wins popular vote by 6 points

2) Dems fail to pick up 30 seats and House is still red

3) Dems take control of the Senate in seven seats

So whoever is closer on the scale of 4.5 points to the popular vote wins point 1

If dems take the house you get the win point 2

If dems take the senate with 8-6 seats I win point 3

Winer picks avatar that will be worn till Friday, January 20 2017

deal?
Click to expand...
That's legit.
 
E

Emarv

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
Between the polls and refusing to suspend his campaign, Sanders is losing more and more leverage.

In terms of Trump...anyone else agree that he's going to throw his new strategy out the window soon? I'm sure he has internal polls that paint a rosier picture but it's very hard to outright ignore national polls that consistently have you down 4-7 points. He's hearing the whispers in his own campaign as well as the RNC. I think he'll fire Manafort and go back to being "out of control Trump." He probably thinks the judge issue is the only thing that hurt him during that period, so if he reverts back and avoids similar mistakes he'll regain the lead (lol).
Click to expand...
I said similar the moment he fired Corey. By September Corey will be back as numbers continue to be terrible and to try and change the narrative back to "that Trump primary magic".
 
C

CCS

Banned
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Paul Manafort is a fascinating figure:

Cl5KuqLWEAADauj.jpg


It's gonna be so nice when he's back to wiping Putin's ass and out of America.
Click to expand...

That's supposed to be a good thing? Jesus wept.

"The best thing about our candidate is that his beliefs and plans bear no relation to objective reality. This is definitely a good thing."
 
W

whyamihere

Banned
I think Clinton will win by 8, take Obama 12 + NC and AZ. Dems win 20-ish House seats. With that margin, I imagine that Hassan, Duckworth, Feingold, Ross, Strickland, and McGinty will all flip their seats.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
In terms of Trump...anyone else agree that he's going to throw his new strategy out the window soon? He probably thinks the judge issue is the only thing that hurt him during that period, so if he reverts back and avoids similar mistakes he'll regain the lead (lol).
Click to expand...

I never thought Trump would be able to stick to one strategy that isn't 'be Trump'. Its like Rick Wilson says, a 70-year old racist, misogynistic egomaniac isn't going to change. This is who he is.
 
S

Sianos

Member
Slayven said:
I hate this building narrative that the GOP might be racist, but the Democrats are just as mean.
Click to expand...

It's their own fault, really. The Republicans said we were being too politically correct, and we took it to heart~~

Snark aside, this and that "the Democrats left behind poor white people" narratives prove everything I've said about the Republican party right. The most charitable interpretation I can think of is that young liberals can be flippant about their generalizations of white men - a point I agree with, generalizations aren't cool on principle - but that interpretation also undermines their whole whinging about political correctness.

After all, it wasn't liberals who demonized welfare and cut its funding. Or liberals who tore apart the mental health system and tried their damnedest to block healthcare reform. Or liberals who slashed school budgets. Or liberals who convinced white men that they must live up to an impossible standard of masculinity at all times and that showing any emotion or getting help is weakness.

And if "leaving behind poor white people" is code for "liberal programs also help people of color, which pisses off racists and turns them away from your programs" as I suspect... that's just unfortunate.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Scott Walker and Ted Cruz are the alternatives to Trump and there hasn't been any news about them preparing for a coup in weeks. They're just not going to have the organization to do this.
 
R

RastaMentality

Banned
Kristoffer said:
I've been planning a DF trip for months! Where are you going? show us pics!
Click to expand...
We were right by Chapultepec Park so we got to see the gorgeous castle and the food vendors throughout the park. Make sure you go around there. Walk down Paseo de Reforma, see the Angel of Independence, and you'll end up at the castle when you reach the end (serving as a backdrop behind the stunning Monumento a Los Niños Heroes). Eat at El Cardenal for breakfast. Get churros and hot cocoa at El Moro. Get pan dulce at Pasteleria Ideal. Go to Zocalo and see Mexico's amazing ass cathedrals.

For the museums: the Museum of Anthropology is a MUST. We didn't go to any other ones but if you google you'll be able to see the good ones.

Honestly, just follow TripAdvisor and try to do what interests you on the Top 20 Things to Do list. If you like beautiful shows, go see Ballet Folklórico de Mexico at the Bellas Artes (go see the building regardless and walk in the Alameda Park). If you have any other questions you can PM me.

We're going to Lucha Libre tonight so I'm excited about that too.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
TheLostBigBoss said:
ok

so she is up ~6.5 on RCP average

without the official nominee title
without Obama and Biden really campaigning for her
without Sanders giving an endorsement

What do we think her realistic ceiling is?
Click to expand...

I'd put money down that she wins with 5-7% of the vote. Trump's numbers will improve once the money starts rolling in, and I do think he's going to soften his message out of necessity, but he's got no victory path.
 
E

Emarv

Member
I don't see how he softens his message. His whole strategy for the first debate will be to paint her as a war criminal without a heart and with a soft spot for Muslims. He'll try to appeal to the Hispanic and LGBT communities but he's gonna want to be as negative as he can against her on live TV.

The debates are the only opportunity i see for him to help himself but I don't see how they'll be anything for him but a shitshow.

The only chance he has is for a pushover debate moderator and a chance to make her stumble even once and catch her off guard like Rubio or someone.
But Hillary is too disciplined for that to happen.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Trump has no organization, no proper Super PAC, unfavourables in the stratosphere, fighting to protect red states, hesitant donors, no interest in united the Republican party, too toxic for members of Congress and a completely confusing strategy due to his narcissism.

There's no reason for the Clinton campaign to take things for granted, they would have to royally fuck it up for her to lose. So far they've been very good.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Emarv said:
I don't see how he softens his message. His whole strategy for the first debate will be to paint her as a war criminal without a heart and with a soft spot for Muslims. He'll try to appeal to the Hispanic and LGBT communities but he's gonna want to be as negative as he can against her on live TV.

The debates are the only opportunity i see for him to help himself but I don't see how they'll be anything for him but a shitshow.

The only chance he has is for a pushover debate moderator and a chance to make her stumble even once and catch her off guard like Rubio or someone.
But Hillary is too disciplined for that to happen.
Click to expand...

Well, he is already trying to soften his message. Whether or not it actually works is a different story. Just yesterday, he came out and said that he was not going to do "mass deportation unlike Obama" and tried to do a 180 on his positions on immigration. Obviously, I don't think that he'll be able to turn around his numbers with women or minorities or outrun his original positions, but I think you can clearly see Manafort trying to push Trump to the center on certain policies.
 
E

Emarv

Member
Bowdz said:
Well, he is already trying to soften his message. Whether or not it actually works is a different story. Just yesterday, he came out and said that he was not going to do "mass deportation unlike Obama" and tried to do a 180 on his positions on immigration. Obviously, I don't think that he'll be able to turn around his numbers with women or minorities or outrun his original positions, but I think you can clearly see Manafort trying to push Trump to the center on certain policies.
Click to expand...
Totally, but does he have the discipline to stay on the new message when questioned? Manafort tried to get him to push the Muslim ban as a "suggestion" but then the Orlando speech had him double down on it. He's so wishy washy that even a modulation on his message isn't reliable for any longer than a month.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
Emarv said:
Totally, but does he have the discipline to stay on the new message when questioned? Manafort tried to get him to push the Muslim ban as a "suggestion" but then the Orlando speech had him double down on it. He's so wishy washy that even a modulation on his message isn't reliable for any longer than a month.
Click to expand...

I completely agree. Ultimately, Trump is too independent to bow to outside influence (as demonstrated in his statements from Scotland where he said all experts and advisors are terrible and he knows so much more than they do) and his hubris will end up being his primary downfall. Even if he were somehow able to get a world class organization up and running, I don't think they'd be able to help him much considering how erratic he is. Still, I think we'll see Trump continue to try and weasel his way out of his positions.
 
V

Valhelm

contribute something
GiantEnemyGoomba said:
What are all the states that could realistically flip from 2012? I know NC and AZ are sorta likely, and RCP has polls showing PA being very close.
Click to expand...

PA is probably the only state that could go red, but unless Trump's polling improves, I wouldn't count on it. Arizona is probably going to go blue just because of demographics. Hell, the one Texas poll shows him only ahead by 7 points. Texas won't swing, but Trump isn't going to win by a huge margin,.
 
R

royalan

Member
The only fear I have at the moment is that things for Trump are SO BAD now, that it sets the groundwork for a perfect Comeback Kid story.

If Manafort can truly take control of this campaign, reign Trump in, get the support of some big donors, and we start seeing marked improvements in the Trump campaign from here on out (impressive staffing, actual ground game, inclusive messaging, a "matured" Trump on the stump, improving poll numbers), then even if there are only paltry improvements, our sleazy media will hail it as a BRAND NEW TRUMP. We'll see headlines like, "TRUMP FIGHTING FROM BEHIND" and "HAS ANYONE WORKED HARDER FOR THE WHITE HOUSE?" And why? Because against our better judgement Americans love a comeback story. We love propping up an unworthy underdog.

Who knows if that would be enough for him to actually overtake Hillary, and it would require everything to go right (or only mildly wrong) for the Trump campaign from here on out (which...lol). But still, eh...it's something I can sorta see happening.
 
T

thebloo

Member
royalan said:
If Manafort can truly take control of this campaign, reign Trump in, get the support of some big donors, and we start seeing marked improvements in the Trump campaign from here on out (impressive staffing, actual ground game, inclusive messaging, a "matured" Trump on the stump, improving poll numbers)
Click to expand...

If Manafort can do that... Fuck it, he should be President.
 
M

mo60

Member
I think hilary has a high chance of winning the GE by high single digits or low double digits.Her poll numbers should go up by a noticeable amount to around 50 in the next month or two.
 
S

Slayven

Member
NSQuote said:
It's their own fault, really. The Republicans said we were being too politically correct, and we took it to heart~~

Snark aside, this and that "the Democrats left behind poor white people" narratives prove everything I've said about the Republican party right. The most charitable interpretation I can think of is that young liberals can be flippant about their generalizations of white men - a point I agree with, generalizations aren't cool on principle - but that interpretation also undermines their whole whinging about political correctness.

After all, it wasn't liberals who demonized welfare and cut its funding. Or liberals who tore apart the mental health system and tried their damnedest to block healthcare reform. Or liberals who slashed school budgets. Or liberals who convinced white men that they must live up to an impossible standard of masculinity at all times and that showing any emotion or getting help is weakness.

And if "leaving behind poor white people" is code for "liberal programs also help people of color, which pisses off racists and turns them away from your programs" as I suspect... that's just unfortunate.
Click to expand...

I am going to copy and paste this post next time it comes up
 
I

Iolo

Member
royalan said:
The only fear I have at the moment is that things for Trump are SO BAD now, that it sets the groundwork for a perfect Comeback Kid story.

If Manafort can truly take control of this campaign, reign Trump in, get the support of some big donors, and we start seeing marked improvements in the Trump campaign from here on out (impressive staffing, actual ground game, inclusive messaging, a "matured" Trump on the stump, improving poll numbers), then even if there are only paltry improvements, our sleazy media will hail it as a BRAND NEW TRUMP. We'll see headlines like, "TRUMP FIGHTING FROM BEHIND" and "HAS ANYONE WORKED HARDER FOR THE WHITE HOUSE?" And why? Because against our better judgement Americans love a comeback story. We love propping up an unworthy underdog.

Who knows if that would be enough for him to actually overtake Hillary, and it would require everything to go right (or only mildly wrong) for the Trump campaign from here on out (which...lol). But still, eh...it's something I can sorta see happening.
Click to expand...

So, if Manafort can just change who the man is at heart.

Meanwhile Trump has just criticized the president from foreign soil, took a publicity trip to his golf course, issued two different statements on his Muslim ban (on different golf course holes), send out a fundraising email with a 60% spam rate, and said that the plummeting pound is great for his business.

All after Corey got fired.
 
S

Slayven

Member
Iolo said:
So, if Manafort can just change who the man is at heart.

Meanwhile Trump has just criticized the president from foreign soil, took a publicity trip to his golf course, issued two different statements on his Muslim ban (on different golf course holes), send out a fundraising email with a 60% spam rate, and said that the plummeting pound is great for his business.

All after Corey got fired.
Click to expand...

wait what?
 
E

Emarv

Member
At this point, the inevitable Trump movie I keep talking about is gonna need to be split into two parts. Because we have to include this Scotland golf course stuff. It's too funny and bizarre to leave out.
 
W

watershed

Banned
The dem platform is looking really good. If Bernie supporters are serious in their policy positions, they should be pretty excited right now.
 
T

Tarydax

Banned
Slayven said:
wait what?
Click to expand...

His fundraising emails have been marked as spam (possibly because they read more like sales pitches or advertisements and less like campaign fundraising emails) and most people haven't opened them or even looked at them. Both Hillary and Bernie had next to none of their emails marked as spam, so this is a pretty big problem for Trump - he's behind in damn near everything at this point. He can't even get the email part of fundraising done properly.

It's great. I love it. I just hope he doesn't screw up so badly that he doesn't get nominated - but then again, it's not like the Republicans are suddenly going to grow a backbone.
 
C

CCS

Banned
Here's a question:

Given a Senate majority but not a supermajority, and a House majority, do you think the Democrats should try and eliminate the filibuster? I've been thinking about it a bit recently, and I can't decide what I think.
 
E

Emarv

Member
CCS said:
Here's a question:

Given a Senate majority but not a supermajority, and a House majority, do you think the Democrats should try and eliminate the filibuster? I've been thinking about it a bit recently, and I can't decide what I think.
Click to expand...
I think it was Dave Weigel on Twitter talking today about how the Dems could wind up scrapping the filibuster for SCOTUS. I'm not really convinced but it is interesting.
 
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