• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

Status
Not open for further replies.
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Really curious about how much of an impact Trump's ridiculous Orlando response had on Hillary's numbers, as well as Obama's. I had assumed Trump would benefit from the attack and the party would be able to rally behind him as he shifted to a fp focus. Instead he botched it and went back to attacking Clinton over 1990s stuff.

Obama being at 56% post-Orlando seems like an outlier, but perhaps the Trump stuff had an impact/framed the issue quite starkly for the American people.
 
T

The Technomancer

card-carrying scientician
Cesare Borgia said:
Really curious about how much of an impact Trump's ridiculous Orlando response had on Hillary's numbers, as well as Obama's. I had assumed Trump would benefit from the attack and the party would be able to rally behind him as he shifted to a fp focus. Instead he botched it and went back to attacking Clinton over 1990s stuff.

Obama being at 56% post-Orlando seems like an outlier, but perhaps the Trump stuff had an impact/framed the issue quite starkly for the American people.
Click to expand...

I think Trump is actually proving the "attacks and uncertainty benefit the challenging party" wrong, because he comes out of them looking so dumb. A lot of people are seeing his real response to different crisis situations and going "oh...ohhhh"
 
S

Slayven

Member
Cesare Borgia said:
Really curious about how much of an impact Trump's ridiculous Orlando response had on Hillary's numbers, as well as Obama's. I had assumed Trump would benefit from the attack and the party would be able to rally behind him as he shifted to a fp focus. Instead he botched it and went back to attacking Clinton over 1990s stuff.

Obama being at 56% post-Orlando seems like an outlier, but perhaps the Trump stuff had an impact/framed the issue quite starkly for the American people.
Click to expand...

The Technomancer said:
I think Trump is actually proving the "attacks and uncertainty benefit the challenging party" wrong, because he comes out of them looking so dumb. A lot of people are seeing his real response to different crisis situations and going "oh...ohhhh"
Click to expand...
I think it shows how terrible Trump is as a person and a candidate. I hate to be ghoulish, but should have been a huge boost for the right, and all they had to do was not be idiots

And of course they were idiots.
 
T

teiresias

Member
Slayven said:
I think it shows how terrible Trump is as a person and a candidate. I hate to be ghoulish, but should have been a huge boost for the right, and all they had to do was not be idiots

And of course they were idiots.
Click to expand...

It pretty much exposed a big swathe of the right as idiotic and moronic. From personal experience the amazingly ridiculous, and what I can only assume is self-hating, stuff I heard from conservative gay people I know was equally as ridiculous and absurd. I've pretty much written off any gay person that votes GOP from my life at this point. They're toxic.
 
S

Slayven

Member
teiresias said:
It pretty much exposed a big swathe of the right as idiotic and moronic. From personal experience the amazingly ridiculous, and what I can only assume is self-hating, stuff I heard from conservative gay people I know was equally as ridiculous and absurd. I've pretty much written off any gay person that votes GOP from my life at this point. They're toxic.
Click to expand...
I look at anyone that isn't a white dude making at least 6 figures that votes republican sideways.

You can vote and believe in what you want, but it is obvious the party doesn't care about you beyond being a warm body.

Why fuck with somebody that tolerates your existence at best, and at worst actively work to make your life a living hell?

I just can't get it.
 
N

nature boy

Member
Oh well, was hoping it would be more competitive, former Governor and all:

Political Polls ‏@PpollingNumbers 8m8 minutes ago
Political Polls Retweeted Jason
Arkansas General Election:

Trump 47% (+11)
Clinton 36%
Johnson (L) 9%

TB&P-Hendrix Poll
Click to expand...
 
H

Holmes

Member
TheLostBigBoss said:
you actually think he's going to openly endorse?

at this point I don't
Click to expand...
I think so. I think he'll endorse during the convention. He's getting quite a bit of concessions (not everything he wants though, and knowing him, he wants everything). I think he's just being stubborn right now for leverage. "I'm going to cause a shit at the convention so give me everything I want!" But he'll get a few things he wants, get a primetime speaking slot if he indicates to Clinton's team that he's going to endorse, then endorse, and that'll be that.
 
T

teiresias

Member
Holmes said:
I think so. I think he'll endorse during the convention. He's getting quite a bit of concessions (not everything he wants though, and knowing him, he wants everything). I think he's just being stubborn right now for leverage. "I'm going to cause a shit at the convention so give me everything I want!" But he'll get a few things he wants, get a primetime speaking slot if he indicates to Clinton's team that he's going to endorse, then endorse, and that'll be that.
Click to expand...

He needs to suspend (not necessarily endorse) in order to get a primetime speaking slot at the convention. The DNC should hold his feet to the fire on that one after all the BS he's spewed during the primary. In reality they should hold his feet to the fire to endorse prior to the convention as well for the privilege of speaking there. Otherwise, let him speak during the brunch hour on some random day and let me never hear from the old man again.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Holmes said:
I think so. I think he'll endorse during the convention. He's getting quite a bit of concessions (not everything he wants though, and knowing him, he wants everything). I think he's just being stubborn right now for leverage. "I'm going to cause a shit at the convention so give me everything I want!" But he'll get a few things he wants, get a primetime speaking slot if he indicates to Clinton's team that he's going to endorse, then endorse, and that'll be that.
Click to expand...

I don't think he gets a slot unless he has endorsed prior to the convention. And obviously the speech is cleared by the Clintons.
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
Bam Bam Baklava said:
All these good polls and people in here still worry.
Click to expand...

I worry only because of the possible outcome of a loss.

Clinton has a very strong network, but people really don't like her for many reasons she can't control, and other reasons she could have prevented with some foresight.

99% sure that Trump isn't going to win, and I'm like 50% sure it's going to be a landslide EC victory.

But when you have ~40% of the voting population voting for this guy because he simply has the republican tag on, that's an automatic cause for concern no matter what.
 
G

gutter_trash

Banned
ugh, Trump has tanked too early... things are not going according to plan
ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Hillary at +7, come on, Bernie, fucking endorse her already and get her to +10.
Click to expand...
not yet, I don't want Hillary to get too large a of a boost before the Republican Convention.

I am worried that the GOP will dump Trump and pick someone else
 
E

Emarv

Member
Trump's gonna announce his VP early. Gonna follow Corey's advice after all of these poll numbers. He just can't stand all of this negative media. He's gonna do something to try and change the narrative.
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
gutter_trash said:
ugh, Trump has tanked too early... things are not going according to plan
Click to expand...

I have the same train of thought, but really this was going to happen simply out of the fact that there is always a bump after the nominee is basically declared. Trump bump lasted all but a few weeks to a month at most, from here on our we're in 2008 territory of simply keeping a 5+ point gap between now and November.

But

They won't dump him before the convention, there would have been more rumbling about it by now if plans were already in motion to do such a thing.

They are going to the route of least resistance. Have Trump be the nominee and drop him like a hot potato in terms of support, which they have basically already done if you look at the ringing endorsement of McConnell.
 
P

Paskil

Member
I can only imagine how angry Trump is about polls. For so long, polls were his best friend. He was always up in the best, most luxurious polls. Since he has become the presumptive nominee, he has won, what, one or two national polls? A couple of usually GOP safe state polls? His thin skin must be burning up from embarrassment.
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
Paskil said:
I can only imagine how angry Trump is about polls. For so long, polls were his best friend. He was always up in the best, most luxurious polls. Since he has become the presumptive nominee, he has won, what, one or two national polls? A couple of usually GOP safe state polls? His thin skin must be burning up from embarrassment.
Click to expand...

Romney had internal polling showing him winning and he bought into it right up until election night.

You think someone like Trump is having his staffers give him the actual numbers and not some internal bullshit to feed his ego and keep him calm?
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
ok

so she is up ~6.5 on RCP average

without the official nominee title
without Obama and Biden really campaigning for her
without Sanders giving an endorsement

What do we think her realistic ceiling is?
 
P

pigeon

Banned
TheLostBigBoss said:
that can't be correct, that poll is a huge outlier with current numbers
Click to expand...

The last FL poll showed +7, didn't it?

FL's full of Hispanic people. The only thing that used to keep it swingy were the conservative Cuban-Americans, who were already turning Democratic in 2012.

Maybe Florida just isn't a swing state any more.
 
T

TheLostBigBoss

Banned
pigeon said:
The last FL poll showed +7, didn't it?

FL's full of Hispanic people. The only thing that used to keep it swingy were the conservative Cuban-Americans, who were already turning Democratic in 2012.

Maybe Florida just isn't a swing state any more.
Click to expand...

I doubt that considering 2012 was ~1% win, this year might be simply a bad year to see if a swing state is turning blue, 2020 will be a far better indicator of swing states leanings.
 
O

Owzers

Member
CNN should hire David Duke as a political commentator on Trump's side. He'd be a great asset to keep things balanced, and since there doesn't appear to be any standards outside of making sure sides are represented, why not?
 
A

ampere

Member
Bams at 56%

QONVIyz.gif


Brinbe said:
Saw this on twitter, on the WaPo poll
http://i.imgur.com/2pFe9ah.jpg[IMG][/QUOTE]

My parents have some friends like this

"we have to vote for him, he's our party's nominee! we don't have a choice"

yea ok
Click to expand...
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Clinton will win the national popular vote by 15 points

Democrats pick up 45 seats in the House (will take stupid avatar for a month voted on by PoliGAF if this one doesn't pass)

10 in the Senate
 
Kite

Kite

Member
In other good news for Clinton, Sanders voters are already coming around to supporting her. For weeks, Clinton supporters have groused about the disloyalty of Bernie Sanders’ supporters. And it is true that, in the last Post-ABC poll, Clinton only won 71 percent of Sanders voters. But despite the acrimony of the Democratic primary, 81 percent of Sanders backers now support Clinton against Trump. Only 8 percent of Sanders voters now support Trump, compared with 10 percent of all Republicans who support Clinton. (Clinton die-hards should think twice before complaining about Sanders backers’ supposed foot-dragging. At this point in 2008, 22 percent of Clinton primary supporters said they would vote for John McCain in the fall, and 16 percent did so.)
Click to expand...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...ery-way/?postshare=4551466949612925&tid=ss_tw
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
Between the polls and refusing to suspend his campaign, Sanders is losing more and more leverage.

In terms of Trump...anyone else agree that he's going to throw his new strategy out the window soon? I'm sure he has internal polls that paint a rosier picture but it's very hard to outright ignore national polls that consistently have you down 4-7 points. He's hearing the whispers in his own campaign as well as the RNC. I think he'll fire Manafort and go back to being "out of control Trump." He probably thinks the judge issue is the only thing that hurt him during that period, so if he reverts back and avoids similar mistakes he'll regain the lead (lol).
 
A

Aaron Strife

Banned
Y2Kev said:
Yeah Obama has been quiet since Orlando really. Time to get him out there!
Click to expand...
He was going to hold a joint rally with Hillary in WI but after the Orlando shooting they called it off because they felt it would be inappropriate.

I think the convention will give Hillary a huge bump and she'll never look back.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

The "I survived development hell" club (7 years+) of games (2024 edition)
36
2K
Holammer replied
Show us your gaming setup: 2024 Edition
2 3 4 5
235
42K
OverHeat replied
Xbox 360 'First Party' dev/pub output DID NOT drop in 2nd half after Kinect, but barely changed. People are likely mixing up TP exclusives with FP.
2 3
148
8K
feynoob replied
  • Locked
Show us your gaming setup: 2023 Edition | 20th anniversary thread
2 3 4 5 6
268
59K
DGrayson replied
All Major PlayStation Franchises And Their Current Status
|OT| News Platform
44
3K
dorkimoe replied
Top Bottom