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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour
- Thread starter Retromelon
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Bruce Springsteen
Member
Just make warren VP already
Box of Kittens
Banned
If Pennsylvania were to vote more Republican than the nation as a whole then the question of who has the Electoral College advantage would probably come down to Florida. It's been voting more Republican than the nation as a whole but if it shifts enough towards the Democrats that would overcome the "loss" of Pennsylvania. Now this is all academic as I expect Clinton to win by a large enough amount for Electoral College considerations to be moot.
People tend to think of the Democratic advantage in the Electoral College as much bigger than it actually is and as something that's set in stone. The issue is that people tend to look at the states each party has won in the last several elections, see that the states Democrats have won reliably are worth significantly more electoral votes as compared to states that Republicans have won reliably, and conclude that there's a large built-in advantage for Democrats. But over that same time frame Democrats have outperformed Republicans in the popular vote as well. Democrats won the popular vote in five of the last six presidential elections, and the one Republican victory was a narrow one, in 2004.
A better way to look at it would be to compare performance in the tipping-point state to national performance. In both 2008 and 2012 that would be Colorado, which did vote more Democratic than the nation as a whole. In 2012 Obama won Colorado 51.5-46.1 compared to 51.1-47.2 nationally. By historical standards that's a decently large advantage but hardly the gargantuan advantage people imagine the Democrats have.
If you go back to 2004 then the Democratic Electoral College advantage is still there but just barely, based on the tipping point state of Ohio. And obviously in 2000 the Electoral College favored the Republicans, at least based on the official count. The irony there was that there was a fair amount of speculation heading into election night about Gore winning the electoral vote while losing the popular vote.
Beer Monkey
Member
Warren could do more in the Senate than she could as the VP.
Veepstakes: Gonna have to go with Warren. Pretty boring as far as this contest goes (I really thought about a Franken vote), but they're too great together.
Plus Gingrich. Trump will scare off all the sitting members of Congress by the convention. Gingrich is perfect in every way.
Plus Gingrich. Trump will scare off all the sitting members of Congress by the convention. Gingrich is perfect in every way.
Gingrich would be too good. That's why I think it won't be him.
"No half measures."
The only thing that Hillary has going for me is that I don't think she would allow the Ben Nelsons to dictate the healthcare debate like in 09.
SO for issues that I agree with her on I have no doubt that she will move hell and high water to get her party in line.
Outdoor Miner
Member
Ensuring Hillary wins the presidency and loading up the SC is the #1 priority right now. I think a Hillary-Liz ticket would be the most formidable and enthusiasm-generating combo.
It is likely the Senate may end up a 50-50 split so I think VP Warren would have a lot of power with the tie-breaking vote.
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
Yeah, kind of a tunnel vision. The entire tea party is a big, 'yeah, I agree but we should probably burn this down to the ground because of money'
Is there any polling data to back whom people would want more?
Plus after the VP debate it doesn''t really matter unless the VP is going to be a rabid attack dog on issues.
nature boy
Member
Trump +8 in Texas in new poll:
I just had that exact thought. They look so adorable together.
Romney won by like +15, right?
it does scare me a bit that a lot of her extra national support is coming from reducing margins in red states that she won't win.
The negative is that her support is a bit overstated, the positive is that she can greatly help local offices as well as senate and house races in red states
Romney was +16, McCain was +12 (rounding up)
That's always in the back of my mind too. She's great in the Senate. But I think having an great ticket is too important. We have other progressives in the Senate who may be able to step up (Brown, Franken), and as I keep saying Massachusetts Dems have a deep senate-ready bench. Allowing more of them to gain national recognition instead of languishing in the House will be good for the party in the long run.
minor effort
Banned
I feel like genuine, unequivocal support for Clinton among Democratic elected officials has been in much greater supply than support is for Trump among elected Republicans. The gulf is pretty noticeable.
That Warren Energy was real. If she picks Kaine, I wonder if they'll still campaign with Warren? Old-GAF, has that ever been done? Has there ever been a super popular party surrogate that wasn't on the ticket but helped campaign?
Because on paper, the notion of having Bill, Obama, Biden, Warren & Unnamed VP is appealing in terms of campaign mobility. But I wonder if people will feel less enthused if Warren isn't directly on the ticket, despite the Senate being the most effective place for her.
Because on paper, the notion of having Bill, Obama, Biden, Warren & Unnamed VP is appealing in terms of campaign mobility. But I wonder if people will feel less enthused if Warren isn't directly on the ticket, despite the Senate being the most effective place for her.
minor effort
Banned
If the Clinton campaign isn't like 90% sure they're going with Warren, they really shouldn't tie her so closely to the campaign and have her appear at events with such prominence. At least not until their actual VP is announced.
I'm feeling a lot of "Warren for VP" buzz around this morning coinciding with the campaign event, and I feel like if they keep this up and then not pick Warren, the Clinton campaign will have to deal with a certain amount of disappointment. We all know there's a lot of good reasons to pick someone like Kaine, and a lot of reasons why Warren would be more important remaining in the senate, but they're really building up expectations here teasing Warren to the electorate.
Aaron Strife
Banned
I saw someone say that Johnson gets 7 in that poll. Could be less that Hillary is gaining support and more that Trump is losing it.
The ABC/WaPo poll (with Hillary up 12) broke their results down in terms of Obama and Romney states. In Obama states, Hillary leads by 24. In Romney states, she's trailing by 10. Obama won his states by an average of 14 points and lost the Romney states by an average of 16, so she's gaining (or rather Trump is falling further behind) mostly in blue states.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I know what you mean but I also think that just means those blue-ish states will break solid blue by the time this wraps up. Like I just don't see both Texas being lean red and Pennsylvania being a toss-up in November.
theprodigy
Member
It does feel like the state polls are showing a closer race than the national polls, almost an inverse 2012 (then again Trump has time to sink himself even further).
Ignatz Mouse
Banned
Warren and Sessions are my guesses.
They're just guesses.
They're just guesses.
VendettaRed07
Member
I'm already prepping what furniture I'm going to have to smash if Hillary chooses Kaine over her after watching that.
Atomic Playboy
Member
100% of the surviving Democratic Presidents (former and current) support Clinton; 0% of the surviving Republican Presidents support Trump. Now, granted, that's only two people, and he was mean to their relative, but it's still pretty indicative of the state of the race; Republican party officials just don't like Trump.
T
thepotatoman
Unconfirmed Member
Even without trump I was thinking that Iowa and Colorado might go right of the nation slightly because of Hillary, but that would be more than offset by Virgina going further left of the country. Everything else seemed like it should have been mostly stable.
Trump is the wildcard that might make PA go right of the nation, which is what would ruin the democrat's electoral college advantage. Maybe republicans could harness that even if Trump loses by putting some of Trump's advantages into a more palatable candidate.
But yes, Florida might end up being Hillary's savior if it ends up being a close election. I really don't have a feel for how that state feels for Trump v Hilary, other than knowing both won the primary by a lot and the early general election polling there is all over the place.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Point 2 actually argues in favor of bashing Corbyn since we all do that to Trump for failing to unite the party behind him. We aren't out blaming George Will for the disarray in the party; it's all on Trump to get people to unite behind him.
I generally don't know enough about the guy to say one way or the other, but I can track US related metaphors about him!
I'll only back your play if you make sure you add one of those alien memes under the ayy lmao for your posts.
Yea the last Texas poll with Trump+7 had like 30% undecided, and that's where Trump is losing most of the standard Texas lead
andthebeatgoeson
Junior Member
Yeah, can't let him get comfortable with attacking people. He's like this terrible version of a school yard bully. He looks too much of a mess to get away with calling people goofy.
metalslimer
Member
Is there a link to the warren/Clinton thing?
StormBrute
Member
Jeez, Warren is so amped up. I'm not used to seeing that level of energy from a politician. I can see why she excites so many people.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Did you not see the shortlist?
She's on it. The "Kaine is the favorite" info seems like it's outdated given the past few weeks (and that fundraising email).
The email and this rally are the largest of trial balloons.
We're getting close to this feeling like a lock.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
No she's not. The top three are Perez, Kaine, and Becerra. She's on the longlist.
EDIT: Or maybe it was Sherrod Brown over Becerra. I can't remember.
Still haven't seen any movement on the Mass legislative end, but that could be on purpose so as not to tip their hand.
Also
metalslimer
Member
1) Fight Song is terrible
2) Clinton and Warren look perfect together. Stop making it so difficult when she doesn't get picked!
2) Clinton and Warren look perfect together. Stop making it so difficult when she doesn't get picked!
DataStream
Member
I really do think she is testing Warren and if she passes the VP slot is hers. Obviously, the combo fires people up, but more importantly she wants to spend quality time with her and see if they can get along given history.
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