Q's Florida poll has Trump winning white college-educated voters by 17%. Hillary wins 56% of the non-white vote.
Hmm.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour
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Hmm.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Also I was looking at it quickly but it seemed like a -21 point swing in independent voters from their last poll
User 463088
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TheLostBigBoss
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Mighty Chin
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I felt the first debate was a draw. It's only considered a win because Romney didn't shoot himself in the foot.
Pence makes total sense for Trump. I think their personalities are similar and Pence seems more energetic than Newt who, despite being angry a lot, looks like he takes naps during commercial breaks. Pence is also a bit of a rambler from what I remember from his tv appearances. Is he Sarah Palin-esque or much more coherent?
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
It has not been Clinton-friendly.
Also, relevant to the "shy Trumpy" concerns from yesterday--Trump modestly underperformed his primary polling. General election is a different beast, of course, but there weren't hidden Trump voters in the primaries.
metalslimer
Member
His defense of the RFRA was a disaster
GurgleBot20
Member
As someone who works in and lives near Cleveland, the atmosphere here is pretty unique. There are welcoming signs, and ones that celebrate the recent championship, and emails that tell us this is an exciting time for the city, and construction in preparation for the convention. Yet there is an impending sense of doom in how each of us feel about the coming week, and recent news stories do not help. It was at this moment when I realized that I'm living in Majora's Mask.
Agreed, based on that, I'm going to assume he does a poor job of defending Trump when he's getting attacked. This would make him a poor running mate, so I hope Trump chooses him.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I can't believe my only hope in the event of a Trump victory is that Ivanka shadow-runs the country.
Sooo the RNC thread is going to be Majora's Mask themed, right?
And the title is going to be updated with Dawn Of __ each day right?
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
Wouldn't surprise me that Trump's strategy would be to spend as much money as possible trying to influence polls and nothing else. All he needs is to quote polls saying "we're doing great in that state, amazing, we got the best numbers, Hillary is doing horrible, we're winning here and there and there it's amazing folks believe it I guarantee ".
Quoting poll numbers seems to be the most viable strategy for him, doesn't matter if the source is legit.
Still not going to beat Hillary-Obama-Bernie-Biden-tron.
Quoting poll numbers seems to be the most viable strategy for him, doesn't matter if the source is legit.
Still not going to beat Hillary-Obama-Bernie-Biden-tron.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Generic pick makes someone like Kaine more likely. Pence/Kaine VP debate borefest and no one cares or worries about it.
Box of Kittens
Banned
California.
I know but that's not what I want! Hillary should go for contrast. And I'm still trying to win Poligaf prediction league and I sure as hell didn't pick Kaine and Pence. Sad!
Orbis Tabula
Member
It looks like basically every single writer at 538 decided to write an article on gun deaths and release it at 10am today. Seriously. Every single one.
User 463088
Banned
I was going to post some polls from FL, OH and PA in 2012 showing Romney ahead around this time just to prove a point.
But then I ate two doughnuts instead.
So....ya.
But then I ate two doughnuts instead.
So....ya.
I got an e-mail this morning basically saying "Don't come near the lab or med school next week! Stay and work from home!"
Operation DON'T LEAVE MY APARTMENT NEXT WEEK is a GO!
bangbang i'm a timpani
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538 needs to just be nate, polls, and some help. The writing has been weak.
TheLostBigBoss
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You guys don't need to rely on folklore to talk about the strength of individual pollsters.
538 gives Qpac an A- rating but adjusts its polls 2 points towards the Democrats. They are slightly biased but pretty accurate within that bias.
That said, all three of these polls are breakout towards Trump. National polls in the same period don't show movement. Keep calm and see what happens next, crazy people.
538 gives Qpac an A- rating but adjusts its polls 2 points towards the Democrats. They are slightly biased but pretty accurate within that bias.
That said, all three of these polls are breakout towards Trump. National polls in the same period don't show movement. Keep calm and see what happens next, crazy people.
Orbis Tabula
Member
While I agree that they should really focus in their strengths, I thought it was interesting. They don't usually do a site-wide focus like this. The front page was surprisingly devoid of the stuff I usually go there to read. Its all gun violence data.
User 463088
Banned
Like, there are going to be polls with Trump ahead. He's essentially the only other option. We don't have to be like OH NOES every time it happens.
Queens coming off a not so great week. I'm not sure who could completely weather the FBI saying "Ya done goofed" without taking a hit somewhere. (Although I do still think it was baked in.) Trump's going to get a bump when he manages to not totally shit on it for a week. And, given the last week's media coverage...ya. He's probably come off looking a bit better. We have a ton of time to slap him repeatedly over the next few months.
But he's going to probably get a convention bump! Because, you know, he's going to do the real things that a real candidate does. It's all good brahs and brahettes. We got dis.
Queens coming off a not so great week. I'm not sure who could completely weather the FBI saying "Ya done goofed" without taking a hit somewhere. (Although I do still think it was baked in.) Trump's going to get a bump when he manages to not totally shit on it for a week. And, given the last week's media coverage...ya. He's probably come off looking a bit better. We have a ton of time to slap him repeatedly over the next few months.
But he's going to probably get a convention bump! Because, you know, he's going to do the real things that a real candidate does. It's all good brahs and brahettes. We got dis.
minor effort
Banned
There's a good chance that, optics-wise, last week was and will be Hillary Clinton's worst week of her presidential campaign.
On the other hand, there's every reason to expect Donald Trump will continue making mind-boggling fuckups every week until election day.
Also, conventions, debates, surrogates, fundraising, and everything else that looks to favor Clinton and the Democrats heavily.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Trump: "So what are you going to do to make America great again?"
Newt: "Moon. Base."
Trump: "johnmaddenfootball"
FloydtheFathead
Member
Hope endures..
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Hahahaha it IS a reality show
I really hope Hillary doesn't pick Kaine but I feel like she will because she's been extremely vanilla in some decisions. I might not even tune into the VP debate at this point...
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
Newterino: Mr. J Trump you know how you get to pick your own "Air Force One?"
Trump: It's going to be the best plan....
Newt: No Mr. J Trump. Pick me as VP and we'll have "Space Force One"
The four who are there.. bring them here!
{*insert photoshop with Barack-Hillary-{VP}-Biden stopping the Trumpified moon..*}
I really want to see any modern argument against repealing the Dicky Amendment. Even the guy who it's named for regrets it!
Heh; that amendment still drives me up a wall. If you're afraid of researching something, you are going bad places. Hell; I don't agree with reparations necessarily - but I don't see why they won't pass HR 40 (to study the idea). It's not a binding bill or anything. Same deal with gun violence. Let's get the data and figure out how to actually solve the problem.
I've always been one for gun reform and control/regulation. I personally believe a complete repeal/change of the second amendment as is interpreted today, is a complete waste of time and will never happen. Gotta compromise on this issue as much as guns suck, and win people over instead of saying "all gunz ban!!!!1!1!", though I do know a vast majority of Americans agree with my viewpoint.
Bruce Springsteen
Member
So CNN is saying the Trump is leading in FL and OH, I thought this wouldn't be a close race
One poll is one poll. Gotta look at the aggregate.
nature boy
Member
While the state polls don't come out:
P.S.: Today must National Poll Day, Marquette coming out with a poll as well in 30 minutes.
P.S.: Today must National Poll Day, Marquette coming out with a poll as well in 30 minutes.
Yeah Teleprompter Trump is just uncomfortable to watch.
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