Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
I'm getting extra-pissed at Ginsburg the more I think about it since it makes Trump's harangues against Judge Curiel arguably less ridiculous.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour
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nature boy
Member
KEEP BELIEVING
Outdoor Miner
Member
CNN would be the last source on this planet to tell you if it isn't.
IggyChooChoo
Member
Ia anyone else from Ohio-GAF going to the alt-right LGBT event at Cleveland State on Tuesday? I am neither gay nor conservative, but I figure it is my only chance to cosplay as G. Gordon Liddy in front of Ann Coulter, and I want to make the most of my life.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...er-headline-historic-wake-lgbtrump-rnc-event/
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/201...er-headline-historic-wake-lgbtrump-rnc-event/
That, sir, is called winning at life.
I loved listening to everyone freak out as CNN was touting 2012 as neck and neck:
Not sure how, Curiel has never said anything negative about trump. To make the situations comparable Ginsburg would have had to not say anything and trump would have to say something disparaging about women or Jews, then cite to that disparagement as a reason for Ginsburg to be biased. In this case, he can just point to what she said.
Even then, it would take a clearly erroneous ruling for a bias charge to have any merit.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
"Wolf I'm getting troubling reports that a near Earth object almost hit Earth"
"Wow this is troubling news Dan, what can you tell us about this near Earth object, or NEO?"
"Well Wolf, it was the size of your average football and was twelve million miles away from Earth orbit, a truly startling number indeed, an extremely close call"
"wow Dan, that's quite some news, keep us posted on any new developments"
Box of Kittens
Banned
Pence is actually pretty unpopular in Indiana, so in some ways it's nice to have him in the gubernatorial race. He's definitely vulnerable.
If he becomes Trump's running mate, then it's up to the Indiana GOP to select a new candidate.
Worst case scenario, they draft Mitch Daniels. He's eligible to run since he's sat out four years. He would be basically unbeatable.
Best case scenario, they get stuck with some low profile candidate who has difficulty raising any cash. Bonus points if the candidate can be tied to Pence's divisiveness.
If he becomes Trump's running mate, then it's up to the Indiana GOP to select a new candidate.
Worst case scenario, they draft Mitch Daniels. He's eligible to run since he's sat out four years. He would be basically unbeatable.
Best case scenario, they get stuck with some low profile candidate who has difficulty raising any cash. Bonus points if the candidate can be tied to Pence's divisiveness.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Never mind, misread!
nature boy
Member
This is better than the Apprentice:
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
It doesn't negate the racist elements of Trump's nonsense, to be sure. But part of the offensiveness and absurdity of Trump's accusations is the idea that the judge "has it in for him". This is ridiculous, except now we have one of the
It's just unforced. People gotta take lessons from Hillary and not lose their chill.
Did you mean Q-Pac? Marist polls don't come out until later today and they are (edit) in IA/OH/PA. CO/FL/NC/VA coming later this week.
or you just stop reading individual polls. An 11pt swing is useless, and is only valuable in an aggregate.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
YouGov goes from +5 Hillary to +2 Hillary.
However, this is the first time since the 2012 election that Obama has a net positive approval rating in the YouGov tracker.
Misread this tweet:
https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/753258225894588416
I thought since he started talking about Marist polls, it would be all Marist polls for those states.
However, this is the first time since the 2012 election that Obama has a net positive approval rating in the YouGov tracker.
Misread this tweet:
https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/753258225894588416
I thought since he started talking about Marist polls, it would be all Marist polls for those states.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
How does a poll swing 11 points in a few weeks? This is something I've been saying about Q's Florida polling for a long time now. They did the same thing in 2012, it would be O+5 to R+3 and back and forth.
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
Marist poll has Clinton with 57% of Sanders supporters
Abinash117
Member
Why do some pollsters keep overestimating the white vote or republicans in general, and/or underestimate minority vote? I think that is why some got it really wrong in 2012.
RustyNails
Member
What really disappoints me is Trump's outbursts and racism is not hurting him in general, and neither does Hillary spending $50m a month in ads. Guy isn't spending a single dime but still seems within a striking distance. He should have been 10 points behind right now which leads me to my 8ball: I honestly think people are just voicing their protest in polling and the "real" gap is really 8 to 10 points. Bernie and Trump did tap into genuine anxiety from voters. There's lot of uncertainty in the world right now: Paycheck is coming but the rent keeps increasing. Wall Street back to being crazy town. ISIS terrorism and wanton attacks in public. Race relations reaching critical mass. Brexit business. On top of all this is nationalist paranoia about Mexicans, Muslims and Syrian refugees. You need to be extra devious in your screening in order to filter these voices out. Because when it comes down to actually going to the booth and casting your ballot for a racist twitter warlord, not many would be willing other than the regular lemmings that vote R every 2 years.
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
which is bullshit because we have plenty of other numbers showing that Sanders supporters have moved to Clinton even before the endorsment.
These polls are strange
How do you know they're not capturing a real surge in the white vote?
NYCmetsfan
Banned
email story
you guys need to relax. She's still winning and now has sanders, and convention boost and trumps next fuck-up.
Its seems silly to deny there has been some movement towards trump though or at least away from hillary
metalslimer
Member
Hilary definitely needs some excitement is her campaign. I really hope she doesn't pick Kaine.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
And every poll they did in 2012? What was the story then?
NYCmetsfan
Banned
huh?
I don't about the margin but pretty every poll we've been getting has been showing a tighting race this round. One major thing has happened which is the email story.
We need to stop over-analyzing each and every poll to make ourselves feel better. These things happen and will continue to happen.
She's still winning and will win.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Trump's Nazi propaganda tweet was polled by YouGov:
"Do you think this image is Antisemitic?"
Yes: 34
No: 41
Not sure: 26
Also, black people care way more about the environment than every other group in America according to this poll. Too bad environmental groups keep comparing climate change to slavery or we could get more black volunteers.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3c9yakk2h5/econTabReport.pdf
(I know it's mostly about lead poisoning, but still a huge number).
"Do you think this image is Antisemitic?"
Yes: 34
No: 41
Not sure: 26
Also, black people care way more about the environment than every other group in America according to this poll. Too bad environmental groups keep comparing climate change to slavery or we could get more black volunteers.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3c9yakk2h5/econTabReport.pdf
(I know it's mostly about lead poisoning, but still a huge number).
As others have pointed out, last week was probably the worst week of Clinton's campaign and to ANY other politician, Comey's statement probably my would have been fatal. It is more than reasonable to expect her poll numbers to drop based off of the news coverage of the event.
However, it is behind her now, the immediate shock of the story is over. Her being untrustworthy is largely baked into the cake. Clinton and her PACs will bombard the airwaves from here on out to ensure that the choice is experience (untrustworthy) vs. lunatic (racist). Untrustworthy trumps racist.
However, it is behind her now, the immediate shock of the story is over. Her being untrustworthy is largely baked into the cake. Clinton and her PACs will bombard the airwaves from here on out to ensure that the choice is experience (untrustworthy) vs. lunatic (racist). Untrustworthy trumps racist.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
I've been talking about the volatility in Q polling for Florida for a long time. There's no explanation for it and it goes back to at least 2012.
RustyNails
Member
I think Julian is seeming like a solid pick the more I think about it. I doubt he has skeletons in his closet, which is really the only thing you need to be concerned about in a VP pick. He may not be the smartest guy in the room, but one look at Dan Quayle and all your fears in that regard should be laid to rest.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Interesting: "Most important issue to you" question in YouGov poll had 14% of Democrats say "gun control" while only 2% of Republicans picked that. Usually reversed where a small portion of Republicans are much more passionate about stopping all gun control than Democrats are passionate about gun control IIRC.
Non-Trump primary supporters care massively about Health care (repealing Obamacare) and abortion (overturning Roe v. Wade).
Non-Trump primary supporters care massively about Health care (repealing Obamacare) and abortion (overturning Roe v. Wade).
Abinash117
Member
If there was a surge Trumps numbers would be pretty high I think and he would have about 70 percent of the white vote.
I'm not too worried about the polls, I'm just wondering that it is something that is pretty common. It will tighten or because of some events, but the crosstabs are interesting sometimes.
I think white Americans are more forgiving when it comes to perceived racism, unless it is extremely blatant and not something they already think about . The only ones that are going to think somethings racist are minorities, a good chunk of young people, and most white liberals.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
According to YouGov polling, the people that most think that the Iraq invasion was the right thing to do are... Trump primary voters. 52% still think invading Iraq was the correct decision, lol.
Also, Trump voters STRONGLY support a ground invasion of Iraq and Syria right now, Sanders voters are opposed and other voters are split.
Also, Trump voters STRONGLY support a ground invasion of Iraq and Syria right now, Sanders voters are opposed and other voters are split.
Virtually no official power. It's the participation award trophy of the presidential cabinet, more meaningful to optics and debate on cable news channels than it is to policy. Unless the president dies, of course. Then, suddenly it becomes a very important position indeed.
VendettaRed07
Member
She's not gonna pick Warren, is she.. 
When I'm considering who is war-hungry in America, it's generally not actual veterans, so I'm not sure why this is other than the left being "military = evil".
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
"Do you support ground troops in Iraq and Syria to fight ISIS?"
Trump primary supporters:
Strongly support: 47%
Support somewhat: 35%
No other group is close to this, most war hungry voting block by far.
Trump primary supporters:
Strongly support: 47%
Support somewhat: 35%
No other group is close to this, most war hungry voting block by far.
Cesare Borgia
Banned
Polls aren't good today but let's not forget the aggregate matters most. Let's see if future polls show similar results in OH, FL, and especially PA. I seriously doubt it. Furthermore I'd argue that Trump will underperform his poll numbers due to the lack of campaign infrastructure in battleground states. Until someone shows me a logical map for Trump with a path to 270 I'm not going to worry. That map doesn't exist unless something crazy happens.
Skiptastic
Member
My Man Mitch would never have let the RFRA or abortion bills get anywhere near his desk. In fact, I would be fairly confident that he would sign an amendment to add sexual orientation and/or gender identity to protected classes. So he cannot be a worst case scenario.
Worst case scenario for all of this is Pence isn't VP and gets voted back in as governor.
Anything that 100% gets Pence out of the governor's seat is a win for the state of Indiana.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
Hallelujah.
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Interesting, GOP primary voters who didn't vote for Trump actually like Obama as a person. Trump supporters think he's not only a bad president, but a bad person.
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