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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour
- Thread starter Retromelon
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Outdoor Miner
Member
Polls mean fuck all period because only 1 campaign actually has an infrastructure and GOTV effort. Look for Queen to overperform polling when we get to November and expect a double-digit GE victory.
Bingo.
I've been watching for a ceiling, and his level of support seems stuck. We've even seen a few instances where she's in the low 50s or high 40s while undecideds had demographics that seemed favorable to her, while he consistently comes in at that same range.
My suspicion is that his ceiling is somewhere in the vicinity of the Palin Number: 45.7%
Even in Clinton's worst week he can't get past 37%. His ceilings are becoming more apparent.
Twilight Princess
Member
10 months ago, people laughed at the idea that Trump was going to be the nominee.
Skiptastic
Member
Trump also didn't have this in the GOP primary either and was able to outpace those who did.
Not sure how much this matters in a general election, but something to consider.
Thequietone
Member
Even if you are right about it not being looked at 50 or 100 years from now, it doesn't address who the old guy is. I honestly don't know who he is, because, he looks like a random skinny old white guy, but I guess it doesn't matter who he is.
Aaron Strife
Banned
Polling today looks fine overall. If the worst we can expect is a modest victory over Trump we're in pretty good shape.
I don't trust Quinnipiac, they've turned into a factory of shock polls since Clinton started running and they've produced howlers in 2012 and 2014 too. I'd put more faith into Rasmussen at this point.
I don't trust Quinnipiac, they've turned into a factory of shock polls since Clinton started running and they've produced howlers in 2012 and 2014 too. I'd put more faith into Rasmussen at this point.
Absolutely, I'd love to help out some more! Here is the best I could draw, sorry if I'm not the best artist:
The greatest irony here is my work pc is supremely buggy using IE and can't even see what's behind the spoiler tags for images.
Spoiled Milk
Banned
The hype is real. You're going to laugh a lot when you get home.
nature boy
Member
Senate races (NBC/Marist):
Aaron Strife
Banned
Well that's what I mean. Even if Clinton's taken a hit she's still in the lead.
McGinty leading in PA is great. I wouldn't want to be Toomey.
I could see a decent night for Democrats allowing them to pick up FL, PA, NH, WI, IL and IN for a 52 seat majority. The fact that Portman and Strickland are still tied in spite of Portman having a huge cash advantage is encouraging, the fundamentals should keep that race on the board. And NC, MO and AZ are all still within the realm of possibility, Ross has even out raised Burr.
whyamihere
Banned
So, I mean, those QPac polls are bad, those NBC/WSJ/Marist and MU Law polls are pretty good, and that Monmouth poll in Colorado is excellent.
If this is after what will probably be Hillary's worst, unforced week of the election, who the fuck cares?
Hobbestetrician
Member
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Romney had no problem hitting 45+ in many polls though. He even got 50 in some.
I mean, yeah. It's bad in that he's a joke and should poll like one. But newsflash to depressed Kev: republicans and democrats will vote for annnyyyttthiiiing.
The email stuff and the obviously offensive racist stuff not moving polls much just shows that our democracy is in elastic and not very competitive.
Seriously if the worst we can expect is Hillary +3 then I think we will actually be okay.
Q has been down on Clinton all year though. Someone should compare their polls to actuals but I'm too lazy.
whyamihere
Banned
Yeah, if Clinton + 3 is nationally is what trigger a full-scale panic attack, dunno. That seems okay to me.
It just means that we end-up waiting a bit later for the race to be called. That's about it.
whyamihere
Banned
iirc, I think QPac is just showing a whiter electorate in general, which is why they were so down on Hillary in the primary (and probably will be on Dems in general).
But, a poll's a poll and they're historically a decent pollster, and I'm not going to discount it because of that!
metalslimer
Member
I mean I guess part of the thing that is depressing is that at the very least it seems like all republicans have essentially fell in line to vote for this guy who is one of the worst candidates (in terms of both policy and campaign effort) we've seen in our lifetimes
Avon Barksdale
Member
Can "moderate" Republicans still call themselves "moderate" if they support Trump?
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Hollande was revealed to spend 100,000 euros on haircuts a year.
This is Hollande.
This is Hollande.
Most nominees in the last 100 years of either party have manage 30% at minimum.
whyamihere
Banned
Wait, wat with McGinty?
TestOfTide
Banned
Trump isn't getting Romney numbers, he is getting sub-Romney numbers. The only reason that Trump's sub-Romney numbers don't look as bad as they really are is because Hillary is only getting Romney numbers instead of Obama 2008 or Obama 2012 numbers.
If the polls were to somehow not change by October ( which we all know is extremely unlikely), Hillary would still be set to win drastically unless somehow 80+% of those undecideds were secretly voting Trump. There is simply no way that undecideds are going to skew heavily in support of Trump.
RustyNails
Member
I'm still going by my 8 ball. It will be a blowout on election day. Save my post.
No, but it's something to keep in mind regarding their Pennsylvania polls. Trump being in the race is going to change the dynamics of the race. The preponderance of older, conservative Democrats in Pennsylvania is going to skew the polling models considerably.
RustyNails
Member
Also a Trump "gaffe" is extremely likely between now and november. It will be more focused and magnified now it's a two person race.
NYCmetsfan
Banned
we're not.
whyamihere
Banned
In other news, Hillary dropped a decent amount in the 538 model, but she's still the heavy favorite to win!
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/753290313888854016
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/753290313888854016
ItWasMeantToBe19
Banned
Republicans finally making in-roads with regards to winning Jewish voters.
http://www.rawstory.com/2016/07/mic...-when-even-my-jews-would-say-merry-christmas/
I mean, Trump posted Nazi propaganda during this week of polling though, lol.
This drip-drip-drip we've seen thus far on Trump has been pretty mild. I'm sure the Clinton campaign has a few heavy-hitting goodies from Trump's past stored for September/October.
bangbang i'm a timpani
Banned
basically: any polls that support your candidate are awesome, any that support the other guy are undersampling or clearly biased.
Ah yes, the Mad Men era, when everyone was doing great. Can't wait to go back to 1950's tax rates!
I don't see how that is any more material than her being appointed by the spouse of one of the case's parties.
Thomas hasnt recused himself many times where a conflict could have perceived. Has not liking someone personally ever been cited for SC recusal?
Abinash117
Member
The gaffe has to be something that everyone or most people believe is one. Not everyone thought that the star of David thing was anti-Semitic. Targeting that Donald on the fact is racist is difficult because only a segment of our population is going to believe so. Hillary targeting on him his behavior is something that works and is something that a lot of people is stopping from supporting Trump.
Some people are clearly biased that way, but some polls can look problematic. If one poll has Trump in with Hispanic despite many other factors that states he is way down with them without him really doing anything with that group. It looks suspect or that certain demos being down or way up despite not being the case in 2012.
Roland_Gunner
Member
I think there's enough data out now to say that Trump gained two or three points because of the email story last week. We won't know if that sticks until early August after the convention noise dies down.
User 463088
Banned
Well, I mean, no. You give me a poll with Hillary +15 and winning the white male vote and I'm going to call shenanigans. But, there are, on occasion, instances where you can trust that a poll says what it says, but kinda be like "Huh."
A poll showing Trump +13 with Hispanic voters, for instance, is questionable. A poll in which the people who ran it are affiliated with a particular campaign or refuse to release their internals.
I don't think anyone is questioning Qunnipiac's polling. Just, they seem to be making some interesting assumptions about the composition of the electorate. Which...ya. That's totally fine. Now, if we go on in there and say "Well, it really means Hillary is ahead by 154% because of retroactive momentum, the Bird, the FBI and Ronnie Raygun PEW! PEW! PEW!...that's not cool.
I dunno. Publicly trashing someone repeatedly might be.
Agreed. I full expect the Democratic machine to go into overdrive by the beginning of September at the latest. The ramp up to the first debate should be brutal.
TestOfTide
Banned
But we all know that the FBI's decision was going to get a lot more coverage than any of Trump's gaffes.
The next time Trump fucks up, it's not going to get overshadowed by the FBI making a big announcement.
ISWThunder
Member
That would be funny if it wasn't so fucking scary that people like her exist as a large and powerful voting block. This guy really understands "religious liberty." wink wink.
The numbers he got in this last set of polls are better, but sure. This is just another way of saying that there are very high undecideds. But most of those people are not really undecided, they're just not ready to say who they want to vote for.
Sure there is. After the first 2012 debate Romney literally gained 10% from undecided voters declaring for Romney. That was a big swing!
Now, admittedly, my belief is that that's pretty much already happening. The email story gives cover for eventual Trump voters to admit they're willing to vote for Trump, and pushes Hillary voters to remain "undecided." So I suspect that a good number of the current undecided voters are actually Hillary voters who will come back, probably after the DNC.
But that's all hypothetical. We don't really know enough about these undecided voters, that's why they're undecided.
Given the Bradley Effect will be operating on multiple levels this year (people who don't want to admit they're racist OR sexist), I would prefer a larger lead for Hillary to feel really comfortable. I expect the polls to get better but this is definitely a move away from her.
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