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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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40% of Bernie supporters aren't supporting Hillary right now vs. Trump, getting him to drop out and endorse her is really important.

Primary election voting just ended yesterday, so I fully expect that 40% to shrink over the next few months whether or not Bernie endorses Clinton. We're still barely a week off from Clinton clenching the nomination. The Bernie supporters who were likely Democratic voters will largely grow in support of Clinton. Watching the two candidates on the campaign trail over the next few months will send more Clinton's way, if the past few weeks of the Trump campaign are anything to go on.

There's still anger and resentment because the primary process just ended. Much of it will fade as people accept Bernie will not be the nominee.

Of course, I think it's important that Bernie endorses Clinton. Even better if he actually campaigns for her. But I expect that she'll win over enough Sanders supporters regardless.
 

Chichikov

Member
40% of Bernie supporters aren't supporting Hillary right now vs. Trump, getting him to drop out and endorse her is really important.
In 2008, over 50% of Hillary supporters said they won't vote for Obama.
People get invested in the process, people get disappointing, people get angry, but they usually come back home.
I wouldn't worry about that too much.
 
I'm at about 130% of my initial outlay on PredictIt.

However, I don't really take any risks. I just wait for markets to resolve, and once they do, I plow in cash during the rush to max out.
 
What's the point of this RE7 demo?

People have spent thousands of man hours on this 13 minute long demo trying to find a secret ending that probably doesn't exist but Capcom keeps teasing just to be assholes.
 

itschris

Member
I'm sure Rick Wilson (Republican consultant) is generally someone who I would almost never agree with, but it's still fun to see him go after the majority of the GOP that's given in to Trump:

How the actual fuck does anyone at the RNC have standing to act shocked that Trump is not doing the basics of campaigning?

You can't elide over his utter dipshittery. No matter how much you try to act surprised, you own this. You're covered in his stench.

History will be so cruel to you.

Your off the record sniping and grumbling is no substitute for moral courage. That's so DC.

You won't escape the stain. It's like a big, visible "No Ragrets" chest tat that will mark your careers forever.

Go public. Man up. Show courage. Say what's in your hearts; he's insane. He's poison. He's doomed. He's killing the Party.

None of you are good enough to spin the unspinnable ratfuck that is Trump. None of you can say, "I was just following orders."

This weekend, people were lined up hundreds deep to give blood to the victims of Orlando. Your Cheeto Jesus was praising himself.

There is no better Trump. There is not Presidential Trump. He is a vile stain on this Republic.

Your resumes will always read "Worked for a batshit crazy crypto-fascist who destroyed the GOP"

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/743281236395819008
 
Sahil Kapur was misleading. The question wasn't "are you ready for a two women ticket?" it was "do you think the US is ready for a two woman ticket?" And if you asked me in mid-2008 if I thought the US was ready for a black President, I probably would've said no (even though I supported Obama).
And clearly America actually wasn't.
 

mo60

Member
I'm sure Rick Wilson (Republican consultant) is generally someone who I would almost never agree with, but it's still fun to see him go after the majority of the GOP that's given in to Trump:



https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/743281236395819008

He also retweeted this earlier where someone said that we can't imagine what will happen if trump is down 15% in the polls in October.
https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/742855101526593536

It's awesome to see him going after trump unlike the other republicans who are falling in line to support him.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
From memory, I thought Clinton didn't release her delegates until the convention either. Although she had already given her cracks in the glass ceiling concession speech.

I believe you are correct; she used her DNC speech to release her delegates IIRC.

In 2008, over 50% of Hillary supporters said they won't vote for Obama.
People get invested in the process, people get disappointing, people get angry, but they usually come back home.
I wouldn't worry about that too much.

Yep. Once again, nowhere nearly as bad as 2008. With Sanders no longer actively campaigning and everyone having endorsed Clinton, I'm assuming back door deals are being made / have been made and a plan is being put together. (Or there's a greater than 1% chance the email thing could actually lead to an indictment, and so he's being asked to stick around 'til then). Dem party seems pretty darn unified, and Trump is causing it to unify much stronger than normal it seems.
 

Iolo

Member
Yep. Once again, nowhere nearly as bad as 2008. With Sanders no longer actively campaigning and everyone having endorsed Clinton, I'm assuming back door deals are being made / have been made and a plan is being put together. (Or there's a greater than 1% chance the email thing could actually lead to an indictment, and so he's being asked to stick around 'til then). Dem party seems pretty darn unified, and Trump is causing it to unify much stronger than normal it seems.

My favorite crazy, made-up meme of this election season is that conceding/suspending your campaign immediately and irrevocably strips you of all your influence at the convention and forfeits your claim to the nomination in the unlikely case the nominee becomes incapacitated.

"We're sorry Bernie, we know Hillary was indicted, but you see, you conceded. I'm afraid there's nothing we can do. Joe, you're up."
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
I'm sure Rick Wilson (Republican consultant) is generally someone who I would almost never agree with, but it's still fun to see him go after the majority of the GOP that's given in to Trump:



https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/743281236395819008

There has to be a line, that when crossed, means you no longer support the party, but support what's right.

Say for example, If Sanders was advocating for nationalising companies too big to fail, like Google, setting a maximum wage, and other litteral Socialist policies, and then he became the nominee, I would at the very least not endorse or vote for him.
 

sc0la

Unconfirmed Member
My favorite crazy, made-up meme of this election season is that conceding/suspending your campaign immediately and irrevocably strips you of all your influence at the convention and forfeits your claim to the nomination in the unlikely case the nominee becomes incapacitated.

"We're sorry Bernie, we know Hillary was indicted, but you see, you conceded. I'm afraid there's nothing we can do. Joe, you're up."
lol. So much this.
 

itschris

Member
CNN: Trump, GOP poised for collision

And yet a fourth group has emerged in recent days, with the most provocative proposal: to dump Trump at the Republican Convention should he not improve over the next two or three weeks. Given Trump's delegate haul, that would require a major change in RNC rules to trigger an open convention.

One name is emerging as the saving grace: Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who has privately told friends he is "intrigued" by the possibility of allowing his name to be put in the ring at the GOP convention as a challenge to Trump, two sources with direct knowledge say.

Walker, who has said he would support the Republican nominee but last week said that Trump is "not yet" that person, denied he is even considering the possibility in a statement.

"Let me be clear: I am focused entirely on being Governor," he said in a statement from his office. "If there's any campaign in the future, it's going to be running for re-election in 2018, which is a decision that we'll make in the months ahead following the next state budget."

The anti-Trump sources, however, who asked to remain anonymous, say that while Walker has publicly denied any interest, the possibility was not dismissed when discussed with him privately. And they say it is a plus that he left the race early and was never defeated in the primaries.

...

This last-gasp scenario, its proponents argue, is not possible without the implicit support of Sen. Ted Cruz, who holds 563 delegates, according to the latest CNN estimate. They say that Cruz is not going to lead any kind of insurgency against Trump, but it's within the realm of possibility that -- given enough public support of this effort -- he could sign on.

They also point out there's plenty of big funders still sitting on the sidelines. And so these anti-Trump forces are now trying to flip big-name Trump endorsers.

"We need one prominent Trump supporter to speak out and renege," one source said. "Then the dam could break."

Scott Walker as the Republican savior? This probably won't go anywhere, but it's fun to think about. If they did somehow pull this off, though, there would surely be a huge backlash from Trump's diehard supporters (and maybe also others that just disagree with the idea of denying the will of the primary voters).
 
And they still won't have the spine to kick him out at the convention. Amazing.

How much do we think Trump's fundraising woes and lack of GOTV cost him, vote share wise? 2%?


Probably more than that. I don't know what the staff exactly do to get people out to vote and how effective they are at convincing people. It will cost him a few competitive states though. Trump's fundraising will hurt the RNC as they rely on the nominee for extra funding and messaging . The RNC will be struggling with kind of sort of helping Trump, messaging, getting down-ticketed people elected, paying for data, paying staff, etc. I doubt even know what exactly their message will be going forward. They don't want to get close to Trump, but they kind of need to help the nominee as his voters will vote down ticket, and they need a central message. Trump won't give them an idea on what to run on. I imagine the RNC will strategise as much as they can to limit the damage, and will probably give up some seats if they turn out to be costly and troublesome.
 

johnsmith

remember me
Hillary Clinton is opening her wallet and seizing the moment.
Just hours after the votes were cast in the final Democratic primary, the Clinton campaign started reserving advertising blocks in eight battleground states on Wednesday, marking the presumptive Democratic nominee’s first significant attempt to define Donald Trump

“Trump is a total dumpster fire right now, so why not try to put him in a place where Republican donors second-guess how much they want to put into him?” asked Steve Schale, who led Obama’s operation in Florida. “It’s a long election. You can’t kill anyone in July. But you can put him in a place where it’s really hard to come back.”

Read more: http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/clinton-to-unleash-tv-hell-on-trump-224399#ixzz4BibZ7ua4


I love that the phrase "dumpster fire" is now a legit way to describe the Trump campaign.
 
On paper, Scott Walker is clearly the unifying candidate for the GOP: Obvious racist, extremely religious, absurdly pro-business.

In reality, Scott Walker is a scrub who was at 0% in the polls after the second debate because even GOP voters could tell he was an unintelligent puppet with the charisma of a dead rat.
 
Bewildered, panicking Republican stories are my new "Ted Cruz is such an asshole" stories....They give me liiiiiiiiiiffffffeeeee.


Though I'm worried at this rate Trumpster Fire may not make it to the convention.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
My favorite crazy, made-up meme of this election season is that conceding/suspending your campaign immediately and irrevocably strips you of all your influence at the convention and forfeits your claim to the nomination in the unlikely case the nominee becomes incapacitated.

"We're sorry Bernie, we know Hillary was indicted, but you see, you conceded. I'm afraid there's nothing we can do. Joe, you're up."

Suspending your campaign is what you generally do as the "I'm conceding but sticking around in case crazy shit happens" - Clinton "suspended" her campaign until the convention technically speaking. Conceding would be releasing your delegates. From a convention rules standpoint, I think it makes life easier if there is another candidate on the first ballot technically if shit goes sideways. It has been a while since I've looked into this, but I think it would make it easier for Sanders to try to win on a first ballot with his bound delegates rather than risk someone else trying to swoop in during the crazy shitshow that would be the convention.

As for the emails and Sanders potential obsession about them...funny story about that..from May / June 2008, from the Clinton campaign...(page 255 Game Change)

"Blumenthal was obsessed with the "whitey tape" and so were the Clintons, who not only believed that it existed but felt there was a chance it might emerge in time to save Hillary. "They've got a tape, they've got a tape" she (Hillary) told her aides excitedly. It just goes to show, Hillary added, "You never know what can happen."

Yep, Hillary and her campaign basically believed the same thing until the bitter end about the Obama conspiracies during the primary (Wright, Rezko, Whitey Tape).

Also, fwiw, the public process of rapprochement began on June 27th (GC, 263).
 

Farmboy

Member
He also retweeted this earlier where someone said that we can't imagine what will happen if trump is down 15% in the polls in October.
https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/742855101526593536

It's awesome to see him going after trump unlike the other republicans who are falling in line to support him.

Yeah, I really enjoy seeing these right wing nevertrumpers hit him hard as well as argue with his idiot Twitter army. The realization that the GOP has been taken over by these mouthbreathers (something progressives have of course known since, at the very least, the Age of Palin) is delicious. I also recommend following Jay Cost, Tom Nichols and AllahPundit (although the latter is not quite NeverTrump, his disdain for the man is palpable). Bill Kristol gets in some fine snark too, on occasion.
 

pigeon

Banned
From that Politico article about conflict between Trump and Hillary:

The Trump campaign would not comment on the record about its relationship with the RNC. One Trump Tower official called it “a great relationship. I work well with everybody over there and I haven’t heard of anyone who doesn’t have a great relationship with them.”

It couldn't be.

Could it?
 
Suspending your campaign is what you generally do as the "I'm conceding but sticking around in case crazy shit happens" - Clinton "suspended" her campaign until the convention technically speaking. Conceding would be releasing your delegates. From a convention rules standpoint, I think it makes life easier if there is another candidate on the first ballot technically if shit goes sideways. It has been a while since I've looked into this, but I think it would make it easier for Sanders to try to win on a first ballot with his bound delegates rather than risk someone else trying to swoop in during the crazy shitshow that would be the convention.

As for the emails and Sanders potential obsession about them...funny story about that..from May / June 2008, from the Clinton campaign...(page 255 Game Change)

"Blumenthal was obsessed with the "whitey tape" and so were the Clintons, who not only believed that it existed but felt there was a chance it might emerge in time to save Hillary. "They've got a tape, they've got a tape" she (Hillary) told her aides excitedly. It just goes to show, Hillary added, "You never know what can happen."

Yep, Hillary and her campaign basically believed the same thing until the bitter end about the Obama conspiracies during the primary (Wright, Rezko, Whitey Tape).

Also, fwiw, the public process of rapprochement began on June 27th (GC, 263).

And yet people think Bernie has committed high crimes against the party lol, while supporting someone who actually crossed that line in 2008.

Obama sure a very forgiving, peaceful man.
 

Suikoguy

I whinny my fervor lowly, for his length is not as great as those of the Hylian war stallions
Yeah, I really enjoy seeing these right wing nevertrumpers hit him hard as well as argue with his idiot Twitter army. The realization that the GOP has been taken over by these mouthbreathers (something progressives have of course known since, at the very least, the Age of Palin) is delicious. I also recommend following Jay Cost, Tom Nichols and AllahPundit (although the latter is not quite NeverTrump, his disdain for the man is palpable). Bill Kristol gets in some fine snark too, on occasion.

Anybody who has something to lose from continuing to shit on Trump deserves some credit once this election is over.
 

Farmboy

Member
The spread between hilary and trump is now at 6.1% on the huffingtonpost poll aggregate.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-general-election-trump-vs-clinton

Is there any online tool that translates a simple margin of victory directly into an electoral map/EV count? Like the excellent FiveThirtyEight swing-o-matic, but simpler: all I need is the one slider.

Alternatively, what would the map look like if Hillary wins by, say, 15%? You know she can do at least 10% at his point; would that be enough for 400+ EV?
 
And yet people think Bernie has committed high crimes against the party lol, while supporting someone who actually crossed that line in 2008.

Obama sure a very forgiving, peaceful man.

Once again just because Hilary turned into a piece of shit at the end of that primary doesn't absolve Bernie.
 

royalan

Member
And, again, Hillary's piece-of-shit moments in '08 were largely gaffes that she immediately walked back when criticism rained down.

Bernie doubled down on his shittitude. It was literally a part of his campaign strategy.

I'm sorry, but Bernie at this point is by far messier than Hillary was in '08. The lack of a major "18 million cracks" caliber speech makes it not even close.
 
Wasn't the 18 million cracks speech at the start of June. And wasn't that the beginning of the public process of unification.

Also I don't see how he would win on the first ballot somehow if she was indicted. In the case of 08 it would have been much more plausible given the closeness of the race.
 

Cybit

FGC Waterboy
And, again, Hillary's piece-of-shit moments in '08 were largely gaffes that she immediately walked back when criticism rained down.

Bernie doubled down on his shittitude. It was literally a part of his campaign strategy.

I'm sorry, but Bernie at this point is by far messier than Hillary was in '08. The lack of a major "18 million cracks" caliber speech makes it not even close.

In her draft of the 18 million cracks speech; before Clinton's campaign got their hands on it; words that were not in the speech

"endorse"


pg 261-262 of GC

"Clinton's speech writers labored over her speech, cranking out twenty drafts. Late on Friday night, the speech was locked - or so everyone thought. In fact, Hillary and Bill stayed up late revising and reworking, editing and reediting the thing. Early the next morning, their new text landed in the email in-boxes of the high command.

"Wow, they really, seriously, fucked this up," Garin wrote to his colleagues after reading it. "They have turned a gracious endorsement of Senator Obama into something that will (and should) seem stingy and small, and turned nice passages about the causes of the campaign into turgid and self-reverential prose. The problem isn't just what they took out, it's also what they put in. How many more uses of the word 'I' do they have here?"

A furious scramble ensued. The Clintons had removed the word "endorse"; it was put back in. The Clintons had deleted many of the references to Obama; they were reinserted."

Clinton didn't oppose any of the changes they made, but, yeah.

Or, let's get real fun, let's look at what Clinton said after Obama won the nomination (in July)

"I hate the choice that the country's faced with. I think it is a terrible choice for our nation."

But Bernie's the "far messier" one.

PS: Two other anecdotes

1) Penn wanted to "negotiate first, withdraw second"
2) Clinton said about staying in as long as she did: "I thought it was a competitive election. I can stay in as long as I want to stay in. Teddy Kennedy stayed in until the convention. Give me a break."

EDIT:
Wasn't the 18 million cracks speech at the start of June. And wasn't that the beginning of the public process of unification.

Also I don't see how he would win on the first ballot somehow if she was indicted. In the case of 08 it would have been much more plausible given the closeness of the race.

Public process of unification is when you start actually campaigning for each other. It would be a lot easier for Sanders to win on the first ballot by suspending his campaign because he would be getting 44-45% of the votes from his bound delegates; and he would only need to convince a small chunk of the super delegates / not legally bound to Clinton delegates to switch over in order to get the number he needed.
 
CNN has a story about the new potential plan B convention candidate -- Scott Walker.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/06/15/politics/trump-gop-leadership/

The theory is that Walker never lost to Trump because he dropped out before the primaries began. The quality of this theory is an exercise for the reader.

Scott Walker poll numbers after second debate: *

(This translates to 0 out of 400 Republicans supporting him as the nominee).
 
So basically the "public process of unification" according to this seemingly arbitrary delineation will never begin if Sanders only endorses but doesn't actively campaign for her.

Also the superdelegates will want Diamond Joe if she's indicted.
500 superdelegates doesn't seem like a trivial amount to convince.
 

itschris

Member
Wall Street Journal: Bernie Sanders Not Being Vetted as Hillary Clinton’s Running Mate

Hillary Clinton’s campaign isn’t considering primary rival Bernie Sanders as her running mate, but is actively looking at Sen. Elizabeth Warren, whose populist politics line up closely with Mr. Sanders, people familiar with the process said.

The vetting remains in its early stages. So far, potential candidates have been scrutinized using publicly available information. The Clinton team hasn’t asked anyone to submit tax returns or other personal information, one of the people said. Conversations with Mrs. Clinton herself about options are just now beginning.

Beyond the Massachusetts senator, other prospective candidates include Labor Secretary Tom Perez; Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro; Sens. Tim Kaine of Virginia, Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Cory Booker of New Jersey; Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti, and Reps. Xavier Becerra of California and Tim Ryan of Ohio, several Democrats said.

...

Mr. Sanders isn’t particularly interested in the job, nor is he expecting to be offered it, though he doesn’t mind being part of the conversation, a senior Sanders adviser said. He sees himself as exercising his strongest influence in the Senate, where his profile is sure to be elevated following his presidential run, the adviser said.

...

Mrs. Clinton’s top priority is finding someone who is prepared to step in as president, she has said. She also is looking for a working partner who can help advance her agenda, and her advisers are less concerned with demographic and geographic factors, people familiar with the process said.

Some Sanders backers are encouraging her to pick someone from the more liberal wing of the party. “I would certainly encourage consideration of Bernie and other folks who represent the progressive side,” said Sen. Jeff Merkley (D., Ore.), the only senator to back Mr. Sanders during the primary fight. Mr. Merkley also mentioned Ms. Warren and Mr. Brown.

Mrs. Clinton doesn’t feel pressured to go that route, since she already embraced such progressive positions as a large increase in the minimum wage and a plan to guarantee debt-free tuition at public universities, a senior strategist said.

I'm glad Xavier Becerra is on the shortlist. WSJ has a paywall, but you can get around it by googling the article's title.
 
CNN: Trump, GOP poised for collision



Scott Walker as the Republican savior? This probably won't go anywhere, but it's fun to think about. If they did somehow pull this off, though, there would surely be a huge backlash from Trump's diehard supporters (and maybe also others that just disagree with the idea of denying the will of the primary voters).

CNN basically talked to three never trump people and wrote an article about fantasies they've been having. Scott Walker has his eyes on 2020, he's not going to volunteer to be the guy who betrays 13 million Trump voters that he will need in 4 years.
 

Maledict

Member
Sanders is woefully uninformed if he thinks that he will have much power in the senate based on his campaign. It's the same issue Clinton had in 2008 - she planned a return to the senate and wanted something to do with healthcare, but despite doing so well and coming so close she basically got shut down. The senate works on seniority above all else - if she couldn't get anything after 2008 I very much doubt Sanders will manage to achieve anything beyond what he was already inline for.

Btw, the way the senate works on the seniority basis is just another completely insane aspect of the USA government I don't understand at all. someone will have to explain it to me at some point!
 
So, if the UK votes to exit, Cameron is pretty much done, I assume. We are one step closer to the amazing combination of Trump and Boris. Good help us all.
 
Hot Damn. The filibuster worked. We're getting a vote on closing the terror loophole and universal background checks. Fuck ya Sen. Murphy.

It's insane, they actually budged and the Dems have actually gained some ground (even if only symbolic). Either Trump's lack of leadership to the GOP or there is actual will to go against the NRA it is amazing. If it were any other time there would be a coordinated GOP response to the filibuster while happening, now there was nothing.
 
I'm sure Rick Wilson (Republican consultant) is generally someone who I would almost never agree with, but it's still fun to see him go after the majority of the GOP that's given in to Trump:



https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/743281236395819008

Ira Goldman ‏@KDbyProxy 5h5 hours ago
@TheRickWilson Like he sees this as a real-estate develpmnt deal: RNC does all finance & construction, then…he lets them put "TRUMP" on top.

This is so on point.
 
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