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PoliGAF 2016 |OT7| Notorious R.B.G. Plans NZ Tour

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U

User 463088

Banned
CCS said:
In order to try and win votes at the last election he promised a referendum on this, because he's a moron who's willing to throw the country under the wheels of populist ignorance to retain power.
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But did he carve out in literal stone though. It only counts if it's in massive fucking stone.
 
B

Bowdz

Member
RastaMentality said:
Oh fuck, I didn't think it'd be instantaneous because usually these things can take a while. It could definitely suicide the economy this year?
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It's like the Chinese market crashes that started to happen last year. Our stock market started to immediately tank. Britain is large enough that this move, in addition to the precedent that it sets for other Euro skeptic counties and the EU, presents enough economic clout that it could easily spook our markets enough to be impactful in the election.



balladofwindfishes said:
Why would the UK be so stupid as to kill themselves economically?
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Why would we be so stupid as to make the debt ceiling an issue to the point that we got our credit rating downgraded and nearly tanked our economy over nothing? People like UKIP have used the GOP playbook by playing up the fears of immigration and nationalism while ignoring the economic realities that will set in for the UK if they leave. Unsurprisingly, people can be irrational.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Maledict said:
Absolutely. Even politico has an article up saying its one of her campaigns biggest concerns. It wouldn't fuck her first term though - it could lose her the election. Brexit could theoretically cause a massive earthquake in the financial markets, and no-one has any clue how that would shake out. The worlds 5th largest economy, and largest international finance centre, extricating itself from the worlds largest free market? As the Washington Post out it, it's a country literally committing economic suicide and the knock on effects could be catastrophic.
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This seems alarmist, no? The most conservative reports I've read were like 3-5% of gdp hit. That would be a huge mess and inflict suffering on Brits for no reason but catastrophic? I think you'd see roiling in the capitals makers but the REAL Bernie sanders economy should be ok.
 
B

balladofwindfishes

Member
Bowdz said:
Why would we be so stupid as to make the debt ceiling an issue to the point that we got our credit rating downgraded and nearly tanked our economy over nothing? People like UKIP have used the GOP playbook by playing up the fears of immigration and nationalism while ignoring the economic realities that will set in for the UK if they leave. Unsurprisingly, people can be irrational.
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Those were elected officials though, not the entire country. To me, it's a bit different when the blame lies more on an elected official and not the populace.
 
O

Orbis Tabula

Member
In allowing myself to get a little optimistic now that we may have some reasonable changes to gun laws in this country. I never thought I'd see the day.

I'm still a little nervous at the whole "government can put you on a secret list to take away your rights" aspect of it, but it seems the parties involved are aware of that concern, and interested in a fix. I'm breathing a sigh of relief.
 
O

OmniOne

Member
Interesting that VP choice has no affect on support on Clinton in VA in that PPP poll.

I think the handwringing over a Warren pick is for naught. And also, picking Warner or Kaine added zip.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
Y2Kev said:
This seems alarmist, no? The most conservative reports I've read were like 3-5% of gdp hit. That would be a huge mess and inflict suffering on Brits for no reason but catastrophic? I think you'd see roiling in the capitals makers but the REAL Bernie sanders economy should be ok.
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Also Trump basically supports it, to the degree that he even knows what it is, anyway.
 
E

Ecotic

Member
The potential Brexit just sucks. The current world order depends on a healthy and robust E.U. Taking out the U.K. might as well be taking out a keystone.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Y2Kev said:
This seems alarmist, no? The most conservative reports I've read were like 3-5% of gdp hit. That would be a huge mess and inflict suffering on Brits for no reason but catastrophic? I think you'd see roiling in the capitals makers but the REAL Bernie sanders economy should be ok.
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Nobody honestly knows - which is on its own enough to precipitate a market collapse. It could happen and not much changes, as London slowly loses its clout internationally and we argue over treaties for five years. Or it could happen and cause a domino effect that results in a bigger mess than 2008 (the British stock market has already fallen more apparently). Britain being in the EU is a fundamental cornerstone of how international finance works, and a change on this scale has the potential to blow a lot of stuff up. It could lead to the EU itself splintering, as the surge of right wing nationalism continues and more countries vote to leave (and the UK leaving will mean all the other EU countries have to increase their contributions which impacts on their budgets etc).
 
C

CCS

Banned
Maledict said:
Nobody honestly knows - which is on its own enough to precipitate a market collapse. It could happen and not much changes, as London slowly loses its clout internationally and we argue over treaties for five years. Or it could happen and cause a domino effect that results in a bigger mess than 2008 (the British stock market has already fallen more apparently). Britain being in the EU is a fundamental cornerstone of how international finance works, and a change on this scale has the potential to blow a lot of stuff up. It could lead to the EU itself splintering, as the surge of right wing nationalism continues and more countries vote to leave (and the UK leaving will mean all the other EU countries have to increase their contributions which impacts on their budgets etc).
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Yep, if I'm correct the FTSE is already down more that twice what happened in 2008.
 
H

Hazzuh

Member
Iolo said:
What kind of dumbasses put such an important issue to a direct popular vote.
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There are a few issues, firstly there was a referendum in Britain's membership in the EEC in 1975 which set a precedent. Secondly, there have been many many referenda regarding the EU (in its various forms) in different EU countries since then. Finally, for years UK politicians have promised a referendum following any EU treaty change which they have then backed out of. For example, in the 2005 Labour manifesto they said: "We will put it [the constitution] to the British people in a referendum and campaign wholeheartedly for a Yes vote."
 
N

NeoXChaos

Member
Kyle Kondik ‏@kkondik 58m58 minutes ago
New Reuters/Ipsos has Dems +11, 44-33 on House generic ballot. Just one poll, but that's about where Dems will need to be to have a chance
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where's my Hillary laser gif.
 
M

Maledict

Member
Iolo said:
I know, you'd think the UK would have noticed how that turned out.
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As CCS has said, this was the desperate promise by a man completely unfit to be Prime Minister. He has consistently put short term power ahead of any long term thinking or statesmanship, to an extent unprecedented in modern politics as far as I can remember. He made a stupid promise because he was terrified of his own back benchers, and now has to deliver on it.

It's further complicated because we don't often have referendums here (they are very Rae in general), so we don't have any sort of threshold requirement. It's literally 50%+1. You should not be able to make a decision of this level and not at least have a majority of the actual population in favour of it.
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Jonathan Chait has a new piece arguing Trump's alternate goal might be to create a tv network catering to the delusional white backlash subculture. First I've heard of Trump TV. I don't really buy the idea that Trump doesn't want to be president, but he is a lazy candidate with no self-control, no focus, a malleable ideology, and no stake in future of the party, so his "real" motivations are naturally going to be suspect.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/06/trump-campaign-a-scheme-to-launch-trump-tv.html
 
T

Tamanon

Banned
IggyChooChoo said:
Jonathan Chait has a new piece arguing Trump's alternate goal might be to create a tv network catering to the delusional white backlash subculture. First I've heard of Trump TV. I don't really buy the idea that Trump doesn't want to be president, but he is a lazy candidate with no self-control, no focus, a malleable ideology, and no stake in future of the party, so his "real" motivations are naturally going to be suspect.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/06/trump-campaign-a-scheme-to-launch-trump-tv.html
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Isn't that basically what Sarah Palin did?
 
3

3phemeral

Member
NeoXChaos said:
where's my Hillary laser gif.
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I got you.

JAPykX
 
I

IggyChooChoo

Member
Tamanon said:
Isn't that basically what Sarah Palin did?
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Yeah, and Glenn Beck. Palin's failed, and Beck's The Blaze isn't doing well. I guess if I had to rate Donald in terms of star power against those two, he'd be higher. Also they never had the profile Trump has. But while Donald may be a better showman and more famous than those two, surely he isn't up to doing two-hour shows five times a week. Maybe he sees himself more behind the scenes like Roger Ailes, but with short, flashy appearances and a lot of branding?
 
B

Box of Kittens

Banned
NeoXChaos said:
where's my Hillary laser gif.
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Picking up the House would be nice, even though it's still unlikely and there's no way we'd keep it after 2018. In general if we could actually get some decent coattails maybe we could start chipping away at the GOP advantage in statehouses. What's really important will be to do well in 2020 legislative races.
 
P

plagiarize

Banned
So. The Brexit. As a British citizen I feel pretty strongly about this. I've been living in America for just over 12 years now, and I at no point have felt the urge to become an American citizen. Yes, I can't vote, but that's really the only major downside right now. I just don't feel American. I am proud to stay a Brit.

But if they vote for the Brexit and America elects Clinton, I will start the path to citizenship here. Obviously if, heaven forbid, the Brexit happens and Trump wins, America still is going to look a lot worse.

But... if the UK truly has reached the point where its citizens want out of the EU and America elects Clinton, the decline and move to the right I have been witnessing in my nation will have absolutely reached the point where no longer is it true to say the UK is more liberal and progressive than the US. The streams will have absolutely crossed....

and I would be prouder to call myself an American citizen than a British one. So yeah, pretty major stuff for me.
 
K

kirblar

Member
lastflowers said:
Thought you guys/gals might like this from Fukuyama: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2016-06-13/american-political-decay-or-renewal

(not sure if it's already been posted)



and this gif is so awesome. Cracks me up every time.
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In fact, however, the turbulent campaign has shown that American democracy is in some ways in better working order than expected. Whatever one might think of their choices, voters have flocked to the polls in state after state and wrested control of the political narrative from organized interest groups and oligarchs. Jeb Bush, the son and brother of presidents who once seemed the inevitable Republican choice, ignominiously withdrew from the race in February after having blown through more than $130 million (together with his super PAC). Sanders, meanwhile, limiting himself to small donations and pledging to disempower the financial elite that supports his opponent, has raised even more than Bush and nipped at Clinton’s heels throughout.

The real story of this election is that after several decades, American democracy is finally responding to the rise of inequality and the economic stagnation experienced by most of the population. Social class is now back at the heart of American politics, trumping other cleavages—race, ethnicity, gender, sexual orientation, geography—that had dominated discussion in recent elections.
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He doesn't get it. Race is THE common denominator behind the populist surges on the left and right.
 
C

Cesare Borgia

Banned
RastaMentality said:
This could actually be popular though. It'd be a televised AM radio with the same crazy ass hosts.
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Given Trump's record of business failures I'd expect this to be a disaster. Plus I'd imagine the taint of finally being a "loser" (after losing to Hillary) will hurt his brand. I'm sure he'll excuse the loss or deny the validity of it, and I'm sure hordes of white people will believe him. But still the loss will likely have a major impact, especially if it's as big of a loss as we expect it to be.
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
If half of the Bernie Stans in Virginia get over it and start supporting Hillary, her lead grows to 9 points in Virginia.

PPP says that people in Virginia don't care at all if Hillary's running mate is Tim Kaine or Elizabeth Warren.
 
G

Gotchaye

Member
IggyChooChoo said:
Jonathan Chait has a new piece arguing Trump's alternate goal might be to create a tv network catering to the delusional white backlash subculture. First I've heard of Trump TV. I don't really buy the idea that Trump doesn't want to be president, but he is a lazy candidate with no self-control, no focus, a malleable ideology, and no stake in future of the party, so his "real" motivations are naturally going to be suspect.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/06/trump-campaign-a-scheme-to-launch-trump-tv.html
Click to expand...

Even the story being told here doesn't have Trump deciding to do this until well into the campaign. And this seems like a really silly risk to take with the rest of his businesses since there's already a tv network out there that's chasing the people he appeals to.
 
L

lastflowers

Banned
kirblar said:
He doesn't get it. Race is THE common denominator behind the populist surges on the left and right.
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no it's not. ANES has shown otherwise: https://www.jacobinmag.com/2016/06/bernie-sanders-achen-bartels-white-men-krugman-election-clinton/

Nor do the ANES data furnish much evidence that Sanders voters have been motivated by white racial resentment. Among Democrats and non-Republican-leaning independents, in fact, white Clinton supporters were more inclined than white Sanders supporters to say that blacks are “lazy” or “violent,” and that black people should work their way up “without special favors.”

Based on the ANES results, Achen and Bartels describe Sanders backers as less hardy in their support for “concrete” progressive economic policies than Clinton backers. But omitting Republicans from the sample neutralizes that judgment, as Hare and Lupton demonstrate.

Achen and Bartels may be right to suggest that there are no major ideological gaps between Clinton and Sanders voters. It is Clinton, after all, who has won the lion’s share of support from black voters (especially older black voters), who are generally more left-wing than their white counterparts on economic issues.
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