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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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U

User 463088

Banned
The fact that she hit 50 is really, really good.

Also, this is important:

It's also important to note that most of the remaining undecided pool is very Democratic leaning. They give Barack Obama a 55/33 approval rating, and they'd rather have him as President than Trump by a 59/10 spread. If they ended up voting for Clinton and Trump by those proportions, it would push Clinton's lead up from 5 points to 8. But they don't like Clinton (a 4/83 favorability) or Trump (a 2/89 favorability). A lot of these folks are disaffected Bernie Sanders voters, and even after the successful convention this week they're still not sold on Clinton yet. She and her surrogates will have to keep working to try to win those folks over and if they can the election enters landslide territory.
Click to expand...
 
I

ItWasMeantToBe19

Banned
Pre conventions (both DNC and RNC): Hillary=45, Trump=41
After: Hillary=50, Trump=45.

Obama would have an 8 or 9 point lean as almost all undecideds are Bernie Stans, but Bernie Stans hate Hillary and Trump more than the black death (Hillary is 4/83 favorable/unfavorable while Trump is 2/89 favorable/unfavorable).
 
M

metalslimer

Member
I'm fine with it. She mitigated any effect Trumps convention had and finally hit 50 again. This is what I see it staying close to until the debates
 
J

jiggle

Member
I didnt watch the dem debates
But how did Hillary do with question on email and Mr. Ben Ghazi?
When Bernie didnt white knight her?
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
It's also important to note that most of the remaining undecided pool is very Democratic leaning. They give Barack Obama a 55/33 approval rating, and they'd rather have him as President than Trump by a 59/10 spread. If they ended up voting for Clinton and Trump by those proportions, it would push Clinton's lead up from 5 points to 8. But they don't like Clinton (a 4/83 favorability) or Trump (a 2/89 favorability). A lot of these folks are disaffected Bernie Sanders voters, and even after the successful convention this week they're still not sold on Clinton yet. She and her surrogates will have to keep working to try to win those folks over and if they can the election enters landslide territory.

Democrats are coming out of their convention with the public having a much better view of their party (45/48 favorability) than the Republicans (38/55 favorability). By a 50/40 margin voters say they see the Democratic convention as having been more of a success than a failure, and the major speakers from the convention generally have a positive image with voters. Michelle Obama is the most popular with a 56/39 favorability rating, followed by Joe Biden at 50/39, Bill Clinton at 48/45, and Chelsea Clinton at 45/31. Barack Obama has a 50/47 approval rating, and voters say by a 53/44 spread that they'd rather have him as President than Trump- that metric suggests the possibility for Clinton to grow her lead further if she's able to win over some of those folks who prefer Obama over Trump but aren't with her yet.
Click to expand...

Come home, melkr.
 
U

User 463088

Banned
If the candidates for President were Democrat
Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and
independent Harambe, who would you vote
for?
Hillary Clinton 48% ..................................................
Donald Trump 43% .................................................
Harambe 5% .........................................................
Not sure 4%
 
R

RustyNails

Member
jiggle said:
I didnt watch the dem debates
But how did Hillary do with question on email and Mr. Ben Ghazi?
When Bernie didnt white knight her?
Click to expand...
She is stronger on Benghazi crapfest.

She used to be "no classified stuff on the server" during the morning shows. She needs to tweak this. I honestly think she should apologize for the email nonsense. It won't hurt her support, and Trump will have a field day. But it will go quite a long way towards fixing her favorables. Americans like apologies. Like if you tweeted your dick to a hooker, they'll forgive you if you apologize. If you disappear from congress to go on a hiking trail with your mistress in argentina, they will forgive you if you apologize. No reason they won't accept Hillary's over something that's clearly politicized and overblown tbh.
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
adam387 said:
If the candidates for President were Democrat
Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, and
independent Harambe, who would you vote
for?
Hillary Clinton 48% ..................................................
Donald Trump 43% .................................................
Harambe 5% .........................................................
Not sure 4%
Click to expand...
JUSTICE FOR HARAMBE
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
We're not going to see amazing bumps in this era of polarization, with candidates so negatively-regarded. This is still pretty good. Looks like 2012 is about her ceiling, give or take a state or two.

So.. who's making the OT thread?
(I KID!)
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
adam387 said:
She needs to hit him with specifics. If Trump says "Crime is way up!" she needs to hit him with the exact numbers. "This is not true, Donald." If he says illegal immigration is up, hit him with the numbers "Again, Donald, this is not true."
Click to expand...

"Nobody believes those numbers okay? Every day, every day I meet people who tell me how it really is in their neighborhoods, and it's worst. It's getting worst. Every day. And if you actually talk to those folks they'll tell you as much okay?

I don't just read some numbers on a piece of paper from the FBI, who by the way should have indicted Hillary but didn't because they wanted to be nice to her, right? We still need to find those thirty thousand emails, thirty thousand! Can you imagine if we had them printed here on the table? You could fill up the whole stage with piles of the stuff. And they're missing, they're still missing, and yet the FBI didn't indict her."
 
I

Iolo

Member
Clinton up by 85 points in California; 5% national popular vote win translates to a 200 EV loss

Also there should be several more polls coming out shortly, which will give a better idea of any bump than comparing one poll to itself.
 
J

Joe Shlabotnik

Banned
RustyNails said:
I mean I'll take even a +2 bump against the orange pooplet, but kinda washes away the RABA hopium of +15.
Click to expand...

I would never expect to a broad bump like that anyway, and PPP is decent, but I really want to see the big network polls.

And Pew is gold standard but I hope to god they just skipped July entirely.

ItWasMeantToBe19 said:
Hillary is only -6 in favorability whereas Trump is still -22.

Getting less hated as the Obamas and all sane people come to bat for her.
Click to expand...

I've said it before but there is significant upside to her favorability--despite her real issues, she's been turned into such an absurdly grotesque caricature over the past year that if the campaign manages to puncture it just a little, the whole spell could break.
 
R

RustyNails

Member
Teggy said:
This is pre-Khan, we'll see what the next poll says.
Click to expand...

I hope it sticks. Obama's convention poll bump largely held for a month, but that was in September. Dude got shattered by Romney on that first debate night though, and the polls switched immediately towards Romney. But he recovered.
 
K

Kusagari

Member
The Vladimir Putin/Russia issue has the potential to cause Donald Trump a lot of problems in the weeks ahead. Only 7% of Americans view Putin favorably to 69% with a negative opinion and only 14% see Russia as a whole favorably to 52% with a negative view. By a 47 point margin- 5% more likely, 52% less likely- voters say they're less likely to vote for a candidate if it's perceived Russia is interfering in the election to try to help them. And by a 26 point margin- 9% more likely, 35% less likely- they're less likely to vote for a candidate seen as being friendly toward Russia. If Democrats can effectively leverage this issue in the weeks ahead it has the potential to help turn this into a more lopsided race.
Click to expand...

Die on a hill for your Russian God, Trump.
 
T

Teggy

Member
The convention might have actually convinced some people that Hillary is not the charicature republicans (and Berners) made her out to be.
 
S

sangreal

Member
jbug617 said:
Isn't the Post owned by Murdoch? I can't see him doing this to Trump now. Maybe it's true that it was on purpose leak.
Click to expand...

Yes, he uses it to express his personal views. Only thing I can think of is he realizes that this will generate backlash/support for trump because really, it's a dick move
 
Y

Y2Kev

TLG Fan Caretaker Est. 2009
Iolo said:
Clinton up by 85 points in California; 5% national popular vote win translates to a 200 EV loss

Also there should be several more polls coming out shortly, which will give a better idea of any bump than comparing one poll to itself.
Click to expand...
Adjusted leader In California is Clinton +2.2
 
M

metalslimer

Member
I'm so glad that Trump dug his own grave on the Russia issue so it doesn't look like Clinton is pushing conspiracy theories. The combined effect of that along with Khan will keep his numbers from growing.
 
R

royalan

Member
jiggle said:
I didnt watch the dem debates
But how did Hillary do with question on email and Mr. Ben Ghazi?
When Bernie didnt white knight her?
Click to expand...

Wasn't asked much about Benghazi, but really they should know not to go there. They have nothing, and it'll be opening yet another door for her to slam not just Trump but the entire Republican party for wasting time, wasting money, and weaponizing grief.

She never did come up with a smooth answer on the emails, tho. But Trump won't be able to hit her with that like Bernie did, seeing as he gave similar speeches (and had a much higher speaking fee).
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Teggy said:
Maybe he's pissed at him for taking Ailes' side.
Click to expand...

Releasing nudes of Melania will do two things:

1- His male supporters will say she's hot, want her as first lady.
2- She will attract pity, Trump and even some in the press will say it's inappropriate and being done to try and humiliate Melania.

It certainly won't get his numbers down. Murdoch knows that very well. Murdoch is running Fox News now, and they're backing Trump.
 
I

itschris

Member
Trump just put out a new statement on the Khans:

faBXMcp.jpg


https://twitter.com/alexburnsNYT/status/759580229065175041
 
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