GoldenEye 007
Member
Maybe this will finally get the GOP to embrace nudity. They've thrown out all of their other principles so far.
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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.
- Thread starter ampere
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Maybe this will finally get the GOP to embrace nudity. They've thrown out all of their other principles so far.
HILLARY + 50 PLEAAAASE
538 Adjusted Leader Trump +1
@ppppolls
PublicPolicyPolling
I'm going to say a 6 or 7. Probably would be higher if not for the unreasonable hopes set by +15 poll this morning
Knuckle Sandwich
Member
Dude, that is going to play AMAZINGLY well with Pittsburghers.
Edit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z6hpgrwGIww So damn 'burgh.
If you say so. I just don't like someone saying jagoff minutes before introducing the next President lol.
User 463088
Banned
NSFW, but the Post is printing nude pics of Melania from 1996:
https://twitter.com/nypost/status/759548757662990338
Eh, I'm not cool with this.
1) I don't have a problem with people doing whatever they want with their body.
2) She's the spouse, not the candidate.
Also, I've been going over the numbers since we got home. (I'm a little LITTLE tispy, but not drunk).
While I think PA is Trump's best bet, I don't see the path with the demographics. Obama lost white men by 21 points in the state. That was 6 points worse than Kerry in 2004. Obama lost white women by 9, again 6 points worse than Kerry. Kerry only managed 84% of the AA vote and 72% of the Latino vote. There's no way Hillary is below 90% of the AA vote and I doubt Trump is getting 28% of the Latino vote in the state.
As of today, voter registration in the state is down 200,000 people from 2012. Trump has no get out the vote effort. He's not actively working to register people. How is he going to mobilize all these angry white people? Is he going to be able to drive the electorate to more than 82% white (which was the high mark in 2004)? In 2012 it was 72% white.
I get the focus because if we cut his legs out from under him in PA it's 100% over, but I just don't see where he gets enough disaffected whites. ESPECIALLY since population growth has gone up in the blue areas and down in the red.
Here are all the sources I used
2004 exits-http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/PA/P/00/epolls.0.html
2012 exits
http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/results/state/PA/president/
PA Voter Information
http://www.dos.pa.gov/VotingElectio...s/VotingElectionStatistics/Pages/default.aspx
Ether_Snake
å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®å®
All Trump has to do, is keep saying something along the lines of "America first!" and he'll have a real chance of winning this election. Trade? America first. Europe? America first. Asia? America first. Nukes? America first.
His achille's heel is social issues and being untrustworthy. His excuses to hide his tax report out are worthless, you just have to hammer that he's running for the most important office in the world so either he is seeing this only as an opportunity to further his brand, or he's actually running for that office; if the later is the case, then he has no reasons to not release his taxes. If it's the former, then you can make the case that this is all a scam and try to use that to depress his backers' intentions to vote.
On social issues, keep hammering the human impact, make people see how it affects them with real human stories, and keep poking him and his VP on abortion.
This idea that you can take the military vote away from him will just reinforce his outsider image: he's being attacked by generals and big name republicans, so he'll say it's just because he's going to "shake things up". You won't see soldiers massively opposing him, and he'll say they're on his side.
edit: Guaranteed that in the debate with Hillary he'll call Bill a rapist or something along those lines. "Instead of having a first lady, we'll have a first sexual harasser in the white house." "Do we really want Bill Clinton to be in the White House again? He was there for eight years already, he can't get another term. I would argue it might be unconstitutional folks."
His achille's heel is social issues and being untrustworthy. His excuses to hide his tax report out are worthless, you just have to hammer that he's running for the most important office in the world so either he is seeing this only as an opportunity to further his brand, or he's actually running for that office; if the later is the case, then he has no reasons to not release his taxes. If it's the former, then you can make the case that this is all a scam and try to use that to depress his backers' intentions to vote.
On social issues, keep hammering the human impact, make people see how it affects them with real human stories, and keep poking him and his VP on abortion.
This idea that you can take the military vote away from him will just reinforce his outsider image: he's being attacked by generals and big name republicans, so he'll say it's just because he's going to "shake things up". You won't see soldiers massively opposing him, and he'll say they're on his side.
edit: Guaranteed that in the debate with Hillary he'll call Bill a rapist or something along those lines. "Instead of having a first lady, we'll have a first sexual harasser in the white house." "Do we really want Bill Clinton to be in the White House again? He was there for eight years already, he can't get another term. I would argue it might be unconstitutional folks."
The Donald will slip up one week and call Hillary a b****, say all Hispanics are wetbacks and say the n word in some leaked audio that goes viral.
My dream is still that Clinton gets under her skin during the first debate and he snaps and calls her a bitch on live TV with 40 million people watching.
Slackerish
Member
Waiting for Donald to say that Hillary/Dems switched Election night to a Tue; which is a day after Monday Night Football.
Honestly, if it really happens I will be in legitimate shock. Won't surprise me if getting under his skin while debating is part of her plan.My dream is still that Clinton gets under her skin during the first debate and he snaps and calls her a bitch on live TV with 40 million people watching.
User 463088
Banned
I mean, the beautiful thing is, how in the world is he going to actually debate her? I mean, this isn't Twitter. They will ask follow up questions. I think his goal will be to bate Hillary into saying something shitty or screechy or "emotional."
The thing is, she's dealt with idiots like him for her entire life. The Benghazi Committee was a 12 hours of grilling, and she didn't break. Donald Trump's small hands and small mind won't break her.
Also, the subtle ways in which we goaded him during the Convention were BRILLIANT. Because if he says "Believe me" on stage during the debate, all Hillary has to do is turn to him and say "But, Donald. We don't believe you. Explain, specifically what you're going to do?" He uses "believe me" like a verbal crutch and it's hard to stop it. He will do it. It's only a matter of time.
And can you see Donald in a town hall? Hahahahaha
The thing is, she's dealt with idiots like him for her entire life. The Benghazi Committee was a 12 hours of grilling, and she didn't break. Donald Trump's small hands and small mind won't break her.
Also, the subtle ways in which we goaded him during the Convention were BRILLIANT. Because if he says "Believe me" on stage during the debate, all Hillary has to do is turn to him and say "But, Donald. We don't believe you. Explain, specifically what you're going to do?" He uses "believe me" like a verbal crutch and it's hard to stop it. He will do it. It's only a matter of time.
And can you see Donald in a town hall? Hahahahaha
User 463088
Banned
(((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten 2h2 hours ago
Me thinks Clinton is going to get a pretty good bounce...
Hollywoo Stars and Pundants: What Do They Know? Do They Know Things?? Let's Find Out!
Spiritreaver
Member
I want the polls/bounce to be good, not for my myself, but because it's only going to infuriate Trump more. He's already on the edge from the DNC.
RustyNails
Member
ppp bump for Hillary will probably be around 8 points: 47 - 39
metalslimer
Member
What was the previous PPP poll?
IggyChooChoo
Member
Eh, I'm not cool with this.
1) I don't have a problem with people doing whatever they want with their body.
2) She's the spouse, not the candidate.
Hard not to feel bad for Melania. Sure she's rich, but the plagiarism and the fake college degree thing were both things she did or her people did to lend a shred of dignity to a woman who's universally seen as a brainless trophy wife. Those are gone, and now this.
balladofwindfishes
Member
It won't be. If Trump could get away with accusing a federal judge of being unfit to do his job merely because of his heritage (and then successful double down and TRIPLE down on that), and still have a viable candidacy...this won't do it.
We as a country need to get used to it. We need to stop trying to explain away the fact that a large portion of our country does not mind that the Republican nominee for the presidency is willing to throw all sense of morality, respect and decency out the window if the recipient of that ire is a brown person or a woman. And heaven help you if you're a brown woman.
When he attacked the judge, his polls tanked. Then Orlando raised them slightly until he opened his mouth, then they tanked again. Then Hillary's email scandal broke and he sky rocketed.
He didn't really get away from the judge thing. He'd likely still be suffering from it, had the FBI not given him an early Christmas present.
Manmademan
Member
What state was it last election that they started calling for Obama that had Karl Rove in full denial mode arguing with the hosts at Fox, Ohio or Pennsylvania?
Ohio.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Boy these people sure know how to tease a result. What if...it's double digits, PPP NEVER has results like that so you'd know it was the real deal.
metalslimer
Member
What state was it last election that they started calling for Obama that had Karl Rove in full denial mode arguing with the hosts at Fox, Ohio or Pennsylvania?
Ohio
User 463088
Banned
What was the previous PPP poll?
+4
H2H it was 48/44
With Johnson and Stein it was 45/41/5/2
What state was it last election that they started calling for Obama that had Karl Rove in full denial mode arguing with the hosts at Fox, Ohio or Pennsylvania?
Ohio.
RustyNails
Member
It will be just generalized bullshit rehashed from the primaries for TrumpI mean, the beautiful thing is, how in the world is he going to actually debate her? I mean, this isn't Twitter. They will ask follow up questions. I think his goal will be to bate Hillary into saying something shitty or screechy or "emotional."
The thing is, she's dealt with idiots like him for her entire life. The Benghazi Committee was a 12 hours of grilling, and she didn't break. Donald Trump's small hands and small mind won't break her.
Also, the subtle ways in which we goaded him during the Convention were BRILLIANT. Because if he says "Believe me" on stage during the debate, all Hillary has to do is turn to him and say "But, Donald. We don't believe you. Explain, specifically what you're going to do?" He uses "believe me" like a verbal crutch and it's hard to stop it. He will do it. It's only a matter of time.
And can you see Donald in a town hall? Hahahahaha
Trump: "Look, the economy is a disaster, ok. Millions of people dont have good jobs and millions of people wanna get out of here because we are so bad. We dont have good jobs. We. dont. have. good. jobs. Listen, when I'm president I'm bringing jobs back and believe me, we're gonna have lots of jobs. There's gonna be so many new jobs your heads gonna spin."
A retort about his shit made in china from Clinton
Trump: "The economy is rigged, ok? the economy is rigged. It is just ridiculous how cheap it is to make things in China. The trade deal, it's a disaster. Bernie doesn't like it and I already said it, the TPP is a disaster. The NAFTA is disaster. We have to fix so many things here and I know how to fix things. I know how to make deals. When I make a deal, it's a good deal. Believe me."
A retort about how Bill Clinton created 23 million jobs in a globalized economy while passing NAFTA.
Trump: "He created some jobs but it didn't work out ok. Our cities are warzones. Look at Michigan, Cleveland. I saw this with my eyes, people don't have jobs anymore. NAFTA is a disaster for our country. So many jobs gone. I will solve the problem, ok? I know how to fix the problems. I am the best problem solver, and I tell ya these trade deals gotta go"
It will be 60 minutes of this.
FloydtheFathead
Member
Did you find J.D Salinger Adam?Hollywoo Stars and Pundants: What Do They Know? Do They Know Things?? Let's Find Out!
What state was it last election that they started calling for Obama that had Karl Rove in full denial mode arguing with the hosts at Fox, Ohio or Pennsylvania?
I will NEVER forget that night. This man had his interns flooding him with papers and data and Rove was literally trying to do live math on Fox news.
I remember Megyn Kelly just straight up saying "it's over." as he was doing it lol.
Basileus777
Member
It won't be. If Trump could get away with accusing a federal judge of being unfit to do his job merely because of his heritage (and then successful double down and TRIPLE down on that), and still have a viable candidacy...this won't do it.
He didn't get away with it, it tanked his poll numbers. There was nothing successful about his approach to that issue.
For all of the close polls we've had, even with his RNC bounce Trump still hasn't shown the ability to break his low ceiling, the closeness has been a result of Hillary dropping.
That is a really weird thing coming from a Murdoch paper. There had to be a story behind it.
And yeah, this is incredibly low class.
One conspiracy theory circling Twitter is that Trump leaked these photos to change the media narrative.
RustyNails
Member
By the way,
http://www.pewresearch.org/daily-number/most-say-presidential-debates-influence-their-vote/Two-thirds (67%) of those who voted in the 2008 election said the debates between Barack Obama and John McCain were very or somewhat helpful in deciding which candidate to vote for, according to the Pew Research Centers quadrennial post-election survey. (About three-in-ten (28%) said they were very helpful and 39% said they were somewhat helpful.)
User 463088
Banned
Did you find J.D Salinger Adam?
Bojack is one of the greatest shows of all time. Of. All. Time. I'm halfway through season 3.
And that abortion episode was one of the best explorations of abortion ever. Seriously. Really, really well done
Two drunk girls is more of a terrorist organization than Isis.
I mean, they butchered comedy.
darkstar0155
Member
It will be just generalized bullshit rehashed from the primaries for Trump
Trump: "Look, the economy is a disaster, ok. Millions of people dont have good jobs and millions of people wanna get out of here because we are so bad. We dont have good jobs. We. dont. have. good. jobs. Listen, when I'm president I'm bringing jobs back and believe me, we're gonna have lots of jobs. There's gonna be so many new jobs your heads gonna spin."
A retort about his shit made in china from Clinton
Trump: "The economy is rigged, ok? the economy is rigged. It is just ridiculous how cheap it is to make things in China. The trade deal, it's a disaster. Bernie doesn't like it and I already said it, the TPP is a disaster. The NAFTA is disaster. We have to fix so many things here and I know how to fix things. I know how to make deals. When I make a deal, it's a good deal. Believe me."
A retort about how Bill Clinton created 23 million jobs in a globalized economy while passing NAFTA.
Trump: "He created some jobs but it didn't work out ok. Our cities are warzones. Look at Michigan, Cleveland. I saw this with my eyes, people don't have jobs anymore. NAFTA is a disaster for our country. So many jobs gone. I will solve the problem, ok? I know how to fix the problems. I am the best problem solver, and I tell ya these trade deals gotta go"
It will be 60 minutes of this.
Perfect. I completely expect this.
Also, I think that the debate thing is another case of Trump misjudging his ground.
In the primaries, him not showing up for a debate got him almost as much attention as showing up, and the media markets caved to him for the ratings.
This is the general. People will tune in with or without Donald Trump. If he skips the debates they'll hold them without him and it'll just be a 3-hour infomercial for HRC.
Trump is not great at recognizing when he doesn't have leverage.
In the primaries, him not showing up for a debate got him almost as much attention as showing up, and the media markets caved to him for the ratings.
This is the general. People will tune in with or without Donald Trump. If he skips the debates they'll hold them without him and it'll just be a 3-hour infomercial for HRC.
Trump is not great at recognizing when he doesn't have leverage.
balladofwindfishes
Member
This Khan thing has to be the biggest backlash to anything Trump has ever said, at least from my browsing of various forums and social media.
User 463088
Banned
It will be just generalized bullshit rehashed from the primaries for Trump
Trump: "Look, the economy is a disaster, ok. Millions of people dont have good jobs and millions of people wanna get out of here because we are so bad. We dont have good jobs. We. dont. have. good. jobs. Listen, when I'm president I'm bringing jobs back and believe me, we're gonna have lots of jobs. There's gonna be so many new jobs your heads gonna spin."
A retort about his shit made in china from Clinton
Trump: "The economy is rigged, ok? the economy is rigged. It is just ridiculous how cheap it is to make things in China. The trade deal, it's a disaster. Bernie doesn't like it and I already said it, the TPP is a disaster. The NAFTA is disaster. We have to fix so many things here and I know how to fix things. I know how to make deals. When I make a deal, it's a good deal. Believe me."
A retort about how Bill Clinton created 23 million jobs in a globalized economy while passing NAFTA.
Trump: "He created some jobs but it didn't work out ok. Our cities are warzones. Look at Michigan, Cleveland. I saw this with my eyes, people don't have jobs anymore. NAFTA is a disaster for our country. So many jobs gone. I will solve the problem, ok? I know how to fix the problems. I am the best problem solver, and I tell ya these trade deals gotta go"
It will be 60 minutes of this.
This is all true!
The thing is, Hillary needs to hit him every time he does some glistening generality or random bullshit. Like, if he says "Believe me, I'm going to bring back 24 million jobs in six weeks. Believe me." Just hit him "How? What, specifically, are you going to do, Donald?" If the moderators won't follow up (which I think they will because, seriously, someone wants to get him on something), then Hillary needs to.
There's little risk for her because she knows goddamn everything. Seriously. Random statistics about unexploded land minds in Laos. She knew the correct answer off the cuff! Just let him keep getting into word salad. Try and get a Reagan type "There you go again, Donald."
Debates is where she shines. Big speeches eh not so much maybe. But, seriously, just let Hillary be Hillary in a debate. Trump will MAYBE do one.
Also!
She needs to hit him with specifics. If Trump says "Crime is way up!" she needs to hit him with the exact numbers. "This is not true, Donald." If he says illegal immigration is up, hit him with the numbers "Again, Donald, this is not true."
Every time he says something, you have to chip away with facts. It fits her persona. She's the wonky person who sweats the details.
whyamihere
Banned
Also, I think that the debate thing is another case of Trump misjudging his ground.
In the primaries, him not showing up for a debate got him almost as much attention as showing up, and the media markets caved to him for the ratings.
This is the general. People will tune in with or without Donald Trump. If he skips the debates they'll hold them without him and it'll just be a 3-hour infomercial for HRC.
Trump is not great at recognizing when he doesn't have leverage.
That's sort of where I am.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Poll will be out in 10 minutes.
That's so craven. Serious news outlets can't report on this anyway.One conspiracy theory circling Twitter is that Trump leaked these photos to change the media narrative.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
That's so craven. Serious news outlets can't report on this anyway.
It would make some sense given it's hard to believe NYPost isn't working with him. Hopefully the media isn't stupid enough to fall for it but we know how much they love carrying his water.
RustyNails
Member
Hillary is a monster when it comes to details and policy. What I think we are sadly again veering into is alarmingly low expectation for Trump. As long as he joins words together in english and constructs sentences, he will be given a passing mark. It's the expectation of going against a juggernaut like Clinton. Similar to the Palin v Biden debate. Biden crushed her, but she got passing mark and lived to survive the rest of the campaign. A corollary from this would be then, is that Biden's crushing of a weakling is what may have led the country to chose Obama over McCain eventually.This is all true!
The thing is, Hillary needs to hit him every time he does some glistening generality. Like, if he says "Believe me, I'm going to bring back 24 million jobs in six weeks. Believe me." Just hit him "How? What, specifically, are you going to do, Donald?" If the moderators won't follow up (which I think they will because, seriously, someone wants to get him on something), then Hillary needs to.
There's little risk for her because she knows goddamn everything. Seriously. Random statistics about unexploded land minds in Laos. She knew the correct answer off the cuff! Just let him keep getting into word salad. Try and get a Reagan type "There you go again, Donald."
Debates is where she shines. Big speeches eh not so much maybe. But, seriously, just let Hillary be Hillary in a debate. Trump will MAYBE do one.
Also, I think that the debate thing is another case of Trump misjudging his ground.
In the primaries, him not showing up for a debate got him almost as much attention as showing up, and the media markets caved to him for the ratings.
This is the general. People will tune in with or without Donald Trump. If he skips the debates they'll hold them without him and it'll just be a 3-hour infomercial for HRC.
Trump is not great at recognizing when he doesn't have leverage.
Spot on. I don't see how there's any way for him to spin this without it looking bad on him.
It would make some sense given it's hard to believe NYPost isn't working with him. Hopefully the media isn't stupid enough to fall for it but we know how much they love carrying his water.
The NYPost loves this sort of shit though. Like I'm pretty sure they like that sleazy shit more than anything but selling papers, which is why they love the sleazy shit in the first place.
Bam Bam Baklava
Member
Clinton up by 5 in both H2H and 4way. Big improvement in favorability.
This Khan thing has to be the biggest backlash to anything Trump has ever said, at least from my browsing of various forums and social media.
Foxnews.com finally posted a story on it, even.
darkstar0155
Member
This is all true!
The thing is, Hillary needs to hit him every time he does some glistening generality or random bullshit. Like, if he says "Believe me, I'm going to bring back 24 million jobs in six weeks. Believe me." Just hit him "How? What, specifically, are you going to do, Donald?" If the moderators won't follow up (which I think they will because, seriously, someone wants to get him on something), then Hillary needs to.
There's little risk for her because she knows goddamn everything. Seriously. Random statistics about unexploded land minds in Laos. She knew the correct answer off the cuff! Just let him keep getting into word salad. Try and get a Reagan type "There you go again, Donald."
Debates is where she shines. Big speeches eh not so much maybe. But, seriously, just let Hillary be Hillary in a debate. Trump will MAYBE do one.
Also!
She needs to hit him with specifics. If Trump says "Crime is way up!" she needs to hit him with the exact numbers. "This is not true, Donald." If he says illegal immigration is up, hit him with the numbers "Again, Donald, this is not true."
Every time he says something, you have to chip away with facts. It fits her persona. She's the wonky person who sweats the details.
Saying him by name like that is both awesome and could make her come off condecending
User 463088
Banned
Hillary is a monster when it comes to details and policy. What I think we are sadly again veering into is alarmingly low expectation for Trump. As long as he joins words together in english and constructs sentences, he will be given a passing mark. It's the expectation of going against a juggernaut like Clinton. Similar to the Palin v Biden debate. Biden crushed her, but she got passing mark and lived to survive the rest of the campaign. A corollary from this would be then, is that Biden's crushing of a weakling is what may have led the country to chose Obama over McCain eventually.
I actually think the Biden/Palin debate is hard to use for a few reasons. Mainly, Biden didn't go full tryhard on her. He couldn't!
I think a few things will come into play.
Yes, expectations for Trump will be lowered, but that's why what the DNC did this week was so important. Kaine hitting Trump with the "believe me" stuff. It's a narrative we can push. When he uses it in a debate, we hit him back. I think you have to take pot shots at him the entire time. Subtle digs that he won't be able to let go. You attack him on his business....by using carefully worded statements. He can't take that, especially if you claim he filed bankruptcy.
Also, there's going to be an interesting dynamic. Men hate being beat by a girl. The media, god love them, will jump on that subtlely. That means Hillary has to walk the line of "you're a fucking dumbass" and "I'm not a harpy shrill"
She did this very well against Obama and Bernie. (Especially Obama who is NOT a good debater)
Joe Shlabotnik
Banned
It would make some sense given it's hard to believe NYPost isn't working with him. Hopefully the media isn't stupid enough to fall for it but we know how much they love carrying his water.
I think the Post has generally been Trump-agnostic or maybe Trump-curious. So I could believe they're a shitty enough rag to have gotten a hold of these pics and run them on their own, but also to have gotten them directly from Trump too.
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