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PoliGAF 2016 |OT8| No, Donald. You don't.

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C

Crayons

Banned
adam387 said:
I like your earring. It's cute :) There's a pressure point inside your ear that if you get pierced it supposedly helps with migraines. I think it's bull shit, but a friend of mine swears by it. Plus, it looks cool as fuck. When I get my tattoo, I'm thinking about doing it and getting my eyebrow pierced again.
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Thank you Adam! It means a lot coming from you because I trust you don't wear cargo shorts.

About the pressure point thing...I didn't know that! But let me tell you this interesting factoid: I used to get headaches ALL the time up until I was around 18. I never made the connection before BUT I don't really get headaches anymore at all! Very very rarely now. I thought it was from smoking weed or something, but your theory could have some merit. I can't say for sure, but it's possible because my headaches did stop around the same time
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
The change before and after the conventions among key demographic groups:
  • Whites, before the conventions: plus-13 for Trump. After: plus-14 for Trump.
  • Nonwhites, before: plus-48 for Clinton. After: plus-71 for Clinton.
  • Men, before: plus-3 for Trump. After: plus-7 for Trump.
  • Women, before: plus-14 for Clinton. After: plus-23 for Clinton.
  • White college graduates, before: plus-1 for Trump. After: plus-10 for Clinton.
  • White non-college graduates, before: plus-19 for Trump. After: plus-26 for Trump.
Notice, too, that Clinton now gets over 90 percent of the support from people who'd backed Bernie Sanders in the primaries. In a broader, four-way poll, that figure drops, but this is still an improvement from the 79 percent she got from that group before the conventions. Before the conventions, Clinton's support was mostly made up of people who were supporting her just because they opposed Trump. After, 58 percent of people who plan to vote for Clinton say they are doing that because they support her, versus 41 percent who simply want to oppose her opponent. (Clinton saw a 20-point swing on this metric. Trump moved 11 points, with 50 percent of those who plan to vote for him still saying they are doing it because they want to ensure Clinton loses.)
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May have already been posted.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...rumps-convention-looks-like-it-was-a-failure/

White men. Ugh.
 
A

Avon Barksdale

Member
Penguin said:
Donald wants us to think he is one of us by eating KFC... with a knife and fork

Co0e-ydWgAEEbcF.jpg

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/760299757206208512
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There's so many things wrong with this pic...like eating KFC for starters.
 
C

Crayons

Banned
Oh, and Adam, not sure if I ever seen what you look like? I don't recall if you've posted. So I can't give you my opinion on an eyebrow piercing. But I trust your judgment.

In my other ear, I have the same piercing, but a different earring. It's a black one with a gun pointing at my head. Whenever I hear Trump speak on TV I pretend it's real.
 
B

Bonen no Max'd

Banned
neurosisxeno said:
I could just come up with goofy ways to describe Tim Kaine all day. Truth be told, I wan't sold on him at first, but I love this guy.

Tim Kaine looks like the kinda guy with kids that love Fancy Sauce (ketchup and mayo) with their fries.
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I had no idea that this was a thing outside of Idaho/Utah and that it had a different name. Round here we call it fry sauce (it's gross tho)
 
U

User 463088

Banned
Samarecarm said:
So if I wanted to help out with Hildawg's campaign (phonebanking? canvassing?), what's the best way to go about it? Who do I contact?



bahahaha
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https://www.hillaryclinton.com/forms/volunteer/

You can also contact your local Democratic party. They should be able to point you in the right direction. I just got access again to the online call tool to make calls from home. Did an hour or so this weekend.

Crayons said:
Oh, and Adam, not sure if I ever seen what you look like? I don't recall if you've posted. So I can't give you my opinion on an eyebrow piercing. But I trust your judgment.

In my other ear, I have the same piercing, but a different earring. It's a black one with a gun pointing at my head. Whenever I hear Trump speak on TV I pretend it's real.
Click to expand...

I used to have it done, but I took it out for a job. Now that, like, I can do what I want since I'm self-employed....I figure why not. After I get my masters, though, I want to teach....so that is something I have to keep in mind. I can always put a maintainer in if I have to.
 
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
So if Tim Kaine is everyone's dad, I am going to be calling him Big Daddy Kaine for the next four to eight years, damn it.

I see you, Utah. If the Mormons deliver UT to the Democrats in November, it will start to make up for bankrolling Prop 8 in California a few years ago.
 
C

Crayons

Banned
Voysa Reezun said:
So if Tim Kaine is everyone's dad, I am going to be calling him Big Daddy Kaine for the next four to eight years, damn it.

I see you, Utah. If the Mormons deliver UT to the Democrats in November, it will start to make up for bankrolling Prop 8 in California a few years ago.
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Kaine is a dad, but I'm not gonna call him daddy
 
A

ampere

Member
Basileus777 said:
Clinton as high as 36% is interesting, it would be the best result since 1964 for a Democrat. I still can't imagine her winning it, enough of those undecideds will end up voting Trump.
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I could see Mormons holding firm against Trump. Mittens needs to endorse Johnson to sweeten it further
 
B

Basileus777

Member
StoOgE said:
This feels believable.

Obama got 25% of the vote there against Romney. The real issue seems to be Trump doing horribly, not Hillary doing well.
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36% is incredibly well for a Democratic presidential candidate in Utah, you have to go back to LBJ to find a better result. But yeah, the state is Trump's to lose as any number in the high 30s would clinch it.
 
S

sangreal

Member
Read some of the articles by Stein's VP pick. He is something else

If you guys think Cornell West has some radical views about Obama you should see what this guy has to say
 
M

Maengun1

Member
I'm playing around with the electoral map, and I discovered one that I've never seen before (I'm sure someone else has put it up at some point but w/e), is within the realm of possibility, and is totally freakin' insane.

24nDovE.png
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You give Hillary North Carolina on top of everything else I consider a lock or near lock, and Donald can win FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA, IOWA, NEW HAMPSHIRE and Hill STILL hits the magic number e x a c t l y <3
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
Maengun1 said:
I'm playing around with the electoral map, and I discovered one that I've never seen before (I'm sure someone else has put it up at some point but w/e), is within the realm of possibility, and is totally freakin' insane.



You give Hillary North Carolina on top of everything else I consider a lock or near lock, and Donald can win FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA, IOWA, NEW HAMPSHIRE and Hill STILL hits the magic number e x a c t l y <3
Click to expand...

This exact map is why I want the Dems to get gud in NC, GA and Arizona. Those 3 states give you a path to the presidency if the midwest becomes in play somehow magically.
 
S

shinra-bansho

Member
StoOgE said:
It's hard to pull apart these numbers to just white men, but they appear to point to Trump doing worse in general among white men than Mittens did.

And far far far worse among everyone else.
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Well white less educated men is probably closer. Hillary has had a white male problem for most of the campaign. Luckily Donald Trump has an everyone else problem.

The college educated whites is notable. Rmoney won that group.
 
S

StormBrute

Member
V

Voysa Reezun

Banned
adam387 said:
I have this weird feeling she wins like Montana or something. Just something random that no one is even thinking about and it just kind of happens.
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I was thinking this, too. I feel like something weird like UT, MT, KS, or even AK flips during this cycle and no one could have guessed it because there was a paucity of polling in these states due to assumptions that they're going red. I think UT and even KS will get some polling, the former because Mormons hate Trump and the latter because the Kansas GOP is in the process of throwing up all over itself, but the others...nah.
 
S

StoOgE

First tragedy, then farce.
shinra-bansho said:
Well white less educated men is probably closer. Hillary has had a white male problem for most of the campaign. Luckily Donald Trump has an everyone else problem.

The college educated whites is notable. Rmoney won that group.
Click to expand...

Yeah,

He is doing well with non-college educated whites in general, and white men in specific.

I wish we could get a bit more cross tabs here than we are getting.
 
H

HylianTom

Banned
Nate Cohn just mentioned: Bill Clinton will be campaigning in Utah on August 11th.

Remarkable. I'd love to know what their internals are showing.
 
R

Roland_Gunner

Member
Basileus777 said:
Clinton as high as 36% is interesting, it would be the best result since 1964 for a Democrat. I still can't imagine her winning it, enough of those undecideds will end up voting Trump.
Click to expand...

Harry Enten points out that Trump hasn't been able to crack 40% in a single Utah poll this year. Mormons seriously do not like that dude.
 
J

JP_

Banned
Maengun1 said:
I'm playing around with the electoral map, and I discovered one that I've never seen before (I'm sure someone else has put it up at some point but w/e), is within the realm of possibility, and is totally freakin' insane.



You give Hillary North Carolina on top of everything else I consider a lock or near lock, and Donald can win FLORIDA, OHIO, PENNSYLVANIA, IOWA, NEW HAMPSHIRE and Hill STILL hits the magic number e x a c t l y <3
Click to expand...

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/760339996280750080

"To me, the sleeper state this year isn't Georgia or Arizona or Utah but ... North Carolina."

heh
 
N

neurosisxeno

Member
StoOgE said:
This feels believable.

Obama got 25% of the vote there against Romney. The real issue seems to be Trump doing horribly, not Hillary doing well.
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Romney was also a Mormon and Utah has the highest Mormon population in the country I believe. I hear SLC is quickly becoming heavily Liberal.

sangreal said:
Mitt Romney
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The guy who held his first press conference in years just to shit all over Trump is going to go to Utah to beg people to vote for him? Seriously?
 
R

royalan

Member
itschris said:
iWPb5xT.png


https://twitter.com/maggieNYT/status/760329114209382400

A more noble-sounding excuse for Trump to refuse to debate, perhaps? Sticking up for the poor third party candidates that are excluded, and if he somehow succeeded in getting them on stage (not likely, in my opinion), he wouldn't have to face Hillary one-on-one.
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The Clinton campaign should get ahead of this and paint Trump as a coward for even looking as though he might not debate for any reason. That'll make any excuse he tries to cook up make him look bad.
 
N

Nafai1123

Banned
Ugh, he would totally do something like that too, and it would undoubtedly make it easier for him to get through the debates without knowing jack shit. If that happens Hillary needs to single him out and force the issue, but then he'll play the victim and blahblahblahblah....
 
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