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PoliGAF 2016 |OT9| The Wrath of Khan!
- Thread starter B-Dubs
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Bigly
GutsOfThor
Member
I'm worried about these pools with her having such big leads. I'm afraid of complacency setting in. Already heard a couple of friends say that they were going to volunteer and donate when the polls were close but now they say she has it in the bag and that they are not going to volunteer or donate. Got them back on track thankfully but how many people are out there like them?
balladofwindfishes
Member
On the flip side, it might keep some GOP voters from coming out to vote, because why bother if you're going to lose anyway
Well the target demographic was uneducated whites and the top 2% of incomes. Trump targeted both well with this speech.
nature boy
Member
Meh speech does nothing to change his Trumpster fire of a campaign.
phisheep
NeoGAF's Chief Barrister
God that was tedious listening. No spark at all.
Summarising - I think: gain $100bn GDP out of deregulating energy, so $15bn in taxes, spend that about 12 times over on infrastructure/military/tax breaks. Punitive import barriers, make everything in the USA, step back 70 years. Back to the Future.
Summarising - I think: gain $100bn GDP out of deregulating energy, so $15bn in taxes, spend that about 12 times over on infrastructure/military/tax breaks. Punitive import barriers, make everything in the USA, step back 70 years. Back to the Future.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
This is interesting.
https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedAndrew/status/762698254790385664
64% of people say Hillary has not been honest in email issue. However 63% are sick and tired of hearing about it.
https://twitter.com/BuzzFeedAndrew/status/762698254790385664
64% of people say Hillary has not been honest in email issue. However 63% are sick and tired of hearing about it.
I forgot to comment on this a while back but its fucking gross that the media is so often more interested in "fair and balanced" reporting than on actually factual reporting. I know "reality has a liberal bias" is a common meme but obscuring the truth or propping up weak sources in the name of fairness hurts everybody - conservative or liberal. We all live on the same planet, we all breath the same air. Not calling out lies regardless of their source hurts everybody.
A) While I agree that the content of the leaks is separate from their source, that they are the result of a Russian hack with the sole intention of throwing the Democratic party into disarray is going to cast a serious and relevant shadow over them for like all of eternity. Unless real smoking guns are revealed, I get why someone might be unconformable able their use.
B) I mean if some perfect Floridan candidate exists that is awesome and better in every way and can serve the district well and is smart and well spoken and handsome/cute and can play a mean game of b-ball than sure, they deserve her seat. Nothing I've seen or heard suggests her opponent is that person. "I won this seat because I'm just a better candidate" is one thing. "I won this seat because outside forces worked in my favor even if I might be worse at the job" is another thing entirely.
C) My eyes want to start rolling whenever I hear cries of "bias". As far as I'm aware, the leak shows a bunch of humans being humans. Preferring the candidate that has worked within your party for decades rather than since last year and who also isn't calling you corrupt or shitty is like natural and common sense. There would be problems if that wasn't the case. What matters is the process of the primaries - nothing in that leak suggest it was ever influenced in favor of a particular candidate. I don't disagree that the DNC on a national level is probably better off without DWS. I just REALLY don't like that it was because of Russia and I don't think it really says anything about her ability as a local congresswoman.
Fight me!
My point is that there is no and never was a universe in which racist White people were electing the first Black president and anyone who thought so was dumb and should feel bad for saying dumb things.
Well, this happens pretty much everywhere. If you like a candidate so much to attend a rally, you'll usually eat anything up. Double this with the partisan split in the US and you have...this.
You should see the speeches in my country when the left and the center left were competing. They were running on basically the same platform and always one-upping each other. "I'll raise wages!" "No, I'll raise them MORE!"
BlastProcessing
Member
Even his partisan crowd didn't cheer that line.
benjipwns
Banned
They want the indictment and conviction and sentencing over with already.
User 463088
Banned
Exactly. The email numbers are baked in. That's probably why her campaign isn't lighting a fire to get a better answer out there, even though they probably should. It's baked in, and no one cares anymore. The only reason the media cares is this is legitimately the only thing they have to throw at Hillary. Her campaign has been too clean so far this cycle. There have been very few stupid comments to hurt her. Those that are, are tied to the emails. People are, in the words of Bernie, sick of hearing about her damn emails.
I think people are tired of it. Like at this point it is what it is. Either people don't care or they think it was fucking stupid but they don't think anything malicious went on.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Was just coming to point this out.
The bad news is that the people who are very or somewhat concerned about Trump favoring Russia is not at fifty percent, but I'll take the Hillary email numbers.
benjipwns
Banned
RIGGED
whyamihere
Banned
Dave Wasserman seems very annoyed that Hillary is up by so much in PA. lol
User 463088
Banned
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4Bi-iePG1O6SzduOV96VkRtTlk/view
Polling out of Illinois
Queen-51
Trump-32
But more interestingly
Tammy-44
Kirk-37
She's plus 4, he's down 1 since their last polling
Polling out of Illinois
Queen-51
Trump-32
But more interestingly
Tammy-44
Kirk-37
She's plus 4, he's down 1 since their last polling
User 85168
Banned
Basileus777
Member
Polls don't exist anyway.
Muh trend R PA!!
WaffleTaco
Wants to outlaw technological innovation.
So I know this ain't economic Gaf, but is there any reason to be worried about the trillions of debt America is in?
DorkLord54
Member
TIL Snyder is a Democrat, and I was just imagining the R next to his name, as well as the ones next to the majority of names of Michigan's state government.
User 463088
Banned
I mean, I actually do think PA is Trump's best chance at a swing state. It's not a good chance. It's a shitty chance. But, still.
BenjaminBirdie
Banned
All of sudden?
lol no
Money is basically a fantastical construct globally, at this point.
Voysa Reezun
Banned
Someone smarter than me will tell me if my answer is correct or not:
Our debt-to-GDP ratio is okay, so no, you shouldn't be.
Kirk's DOA. The PA Senate poll and last week's NH poll more or less prove that the senators can only run so far when the top of the ticket it getting obliterated. If Clinton wins nationally by 7 or so points and wins by comparable numbers in the swing states, no amount of distance is going to save the GOP incumbents.
There was some poll about how the crossover vote had fallen from 56% in 1988 to 23% in 2012. That is not enough to save candidates from a blowout.
No.
Government debt is totally normal and the only times America hasn't been in debt we immediately had financial crises.
"Trillions" is a scary word but it just means there's an amount of debt commensurate with American GDP and taxation.
The R-R study about the dangers of debt load as a percentage of GDP has been debunked.
Treasury debt is currently trading at negative yields. People are paying money for the privilege of loaning cash to America, because they know it will be safe there.
For many years I've been arguing that we should be borrowing a lot more and spending it on infrastructure. I still think this but the fact that we might be near full employment is a little bit of a concern. But hey, let's goose that wage share of labor.
Basileus777
Member
What are you defining as a swing state here? If you're just saying it's the Obama 2012 state he's most likely to turn red, that's not even true. Iowa and Ohio are clearly that, and maybe Nevada if you believe the polling.
Beer Monkey
Member
The election is real now. It isn't 'real' to people until after the conventions. Trump sinking is not mostly because of his new flubs, it's because shit got real.
Pre-convention polls are garbage. Including the ones that people cite claiming that Bernie was a better candidate against Trump. It was all fantasy world bullshit.
You could argue that Brexit has made US debt even more desirable as a result of the uncertainty.
i think you forgot the hellhole you are residing in currently
Felix Lighter
Member
I can't see how that is. Ohio is far more likely to go for Trump than PA. Florida is more likely as well. Polls for PA make the state look out of reach and only still discussed because it has to be without basically conceding the race to Hilary.
User 463088
Banned
I should have qualified it as big swing state. His three best shots, in my opinion, are Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Nevada...no. There is a history of poor polling and with her superior ground game, especially with Daddy Mook calling the shots. I just don't see Nevada actually being in play.
Ohio...ya, maybe a better chance than Pennsylvania. But, my point was, if I'm arguing from the perspective that Trump is going to win, Penn is probably his best shot/hope at pulling it off.
DorkLord54
Member
Seeing as most polling indicates that his path through the Rust Belt has more or less failed, what other paths does he have to win? At this point, I can't really see any.
nature boy
Member
I'll say it again: need some polls from Ohio and hopefully Texas to see if this race is over before it even begins.
But if the national polls show a bigly gap, then Ohio shouldn't be any different, no?
But if the national polls show a bigly gap, then Ohio shouldn't be any different, no?
Basileus777
Member
Colorado? Hillary's been up there more than PA.
whyamihere
Banned
And Arizona.
Basileus777
Member
Without PA,VA,and CO he has absolutely no path. So he has to win a state that he's currently down double digits in to even have a narrow path.
Florida and Ohio don't even matter for the Presidency this cycle!
User 463088
Banned
I disagree completely about Florida. There aren't enough white people. If we can believe the polling among Latino voters in the state, he's trailing Romney and McCain's Latino numbers by close to 30 points. The Cuban vote is not going to save him.
To be clear, I don't think he is going to win Pennsylvania. I don't think it will even be within 5 points. My point is that of the swing states that can lead to an actual Trump victory, Pennsylvania is one of his better bets. He's not going to win it, so it's a moot point.
AntraxSuicide
Banned
Not pushing undecided there, are they?
This entirely. Racists aren't going to change.
But the bolded is all that's relevant. She's not running against this guy for DNC chair, but to represent that district. If you don't have any idea how she is in that district or how she represents her constituents, then I don't really see why anyone should listen to your comments on her race. It's as pointless as me commenting on the mayoral race in Berlin (if they even have one, I don't know!).
At this point, anyone who's still out for blood is just bitter about their preferred person not getting votes. Canova will lose badly, as he should.
Beer Monkey
Member
Then he has to get every single one of them to win with 274.
Oop, I actually meant Arizona but I guess I had Colorado on the mind.
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