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[nature boy]

South Carolina!?

What's next, Texas is a battleground state?

Now-cast Trump wins by 3 in Texas.

So yes.


At this point, are the debates really necessary?


Wow

Ed O'Keefe ‏@edatpost 5m5 minutes ago
Florida's GOP spokesman quits in hopes of "avoiding efforts that support Donald Trump."

Remember: Trump needs 40%+ of the Hispanic vote in Florida to win.

 

[DopeyFish]

South Carolina!?

What's next, Texas is a battleground state?

It's possible.

We need polls done

A lot of the expected solid states aren't polled very often but the national polls suggest more states may flip

 

[Holmes]

For what it's worth, I still prefer the Upshot. In Cohn I trust.

 

[Basileus777]

South Carolina!?

What's next, Texas is a battleground state?

I want Montana just to see the GOP crying over a white plains state going blue.

 

[mo60]

To be honest, I want to see some polling. I really, really do.

Sadly there have been no polls for SC since November.

 

[BrokenFiction]

South Carolina!?

What's next, Texas is a battleground state?

 

[Suikoguy]

That Monmouth poll is near brutality for Trump. The LV screen basically concludes that Hillary's daunting lead with minorities is baked in and Trump's biggest loss is coming from white women with college degree. Romney won them in 2012 by 6 points, but Trump is trailing them by 20.

I don't think there is anything Trump can do at this point to change College Educated numbers. That chance is gone, and combined with his numbers with minorities, his chance at winning.

 

[bangbang i'm a timpani]

i'm curious what the results would be if they polled different races and asked if they thought trump was a bigot or not.

 

[GiantEnemyGoomba]

So with these new polls, how close to 400 is the absolute best case scenario? I know it won't happen but I want to believe.

South Carolina!?

What's next, Texas is a battleground state?

Our Lord Ted Cruz farting on Trump during the RNC means anything is possible.

 

[Diablos]

I mean, I actually do think PA is Trump's best chance at a swing state. It's not a good chance. It's a shitty chance. But, still.

Uh. No. You can put OH, IA, FL, NV... hell, just about any other swing state ahead of PA.

to call PA a swing state in the GE is to not have an understanding of the demographics.

I'm more worried about McGinty being such a cookie cutter candidate and being up only 2 points against Toomey, a complete shithead who wouldn't have stood a chance if not for the 2010 tea party wave.

DNC should have been kinder to Sestak and backed him instead.

 

[brainchild]

I mean, hypothetically speaking.....

Oh, you!

That Monmouth poll is near brutality for Trump. The LV screen basically concludes that Hillary's daunting lead with minorities is baked in and Trump's biggest loss is coming from white women with college degree. Romney won them in 2012 by 6 points, but Trump is trailing them by 20.

We really are going to win by a potential landslide, aren't we?

 

[Nazgul_Hunter]

I don't think there is anything Trump can do at this point to change College Educated numbers. That chance is gone, and combined with his numbers with minorities, his chance at winning.

Is there any historical data on when people tend to make up their minds? I'm wondering if we can tell how fixed people's opinions are by group. Which electoral groups tend to change their minds more often, etc?

 

[whyamihere]

I'd say maybe five points.

McCaskill and Donnelly were aberrations due to weak opponents. Tester benefited from a third party candidate. Manchin never faced any serious opposition. Heitkamp might be the example the GOP would want to follow, but ND is also one of the more elastic states, correct?

I could see Portman and maybe Rubio winning in spite of a Clinton landslide, but I think Johnson, Kirk, Ayotte and Toomey are dead men (+woman) walking.

Yeah, Heitkamp is obviously is the model to follow for Republicans, but she seems particularly fantastic at what she did. She's also a lot more dynamic than most other Senate candidates. I dunno, that feels like something that may not be easily replicated.

 

[Basileus777]

So with these new polls, how close to 400 is the absolute best case scenario? I know it won't happen but I want to believe.

Absolute best case is over 400 now.

 

[Brinbe]

I really think this is a solidified lead at this point, at least until the debates. With the Olympics going on and the summer coming to an end, people have tuned out again with their mind made up.

lol on the nowcast, she's up bigger in GA than he is in TX. Maaaaaaaaaan, so close to shutting them out in the EC for the foreseeable future. Their path to 270 is treacherous.

 

[RustyNails]

Oh, you!



We really are going to win by a potential landslide, aren't we?

Depends. If Hillary has another short circuitry moment during the debates we may not.

 

[whyamihere]

Trump is really expanding the map, just like he said.

 

[mo60]

If it looks likely that SC will go to the dems in a few months I think it will be interesting to see if hilary winning that state has any effect on the senate and house races there.

 

[Rebel Leader]

Just heard that Roger ailes may have used Fox news money for spies against his enemies.


HAHAHAHAH

 

[teiresias]

I agree with how someone said this is a solidified lead since the election is now "real" to people following the conventions. It just so happens Trump absolutely shit the bed just as the election was becoming "real" to a large swathe of the electorate, and that's going to be a hard thing to unbake. I'm still skeptical we'll end up in November at anywhere near these kinds of GE leads, but if we are, OMG, I will literally die from dehydration through osmosis given all the salt that evening from the GOP election party.

Question now is . . . how much longer does the GOP hold the Garland nomination hostage?

 

[DopeyFish]

Trump is really expanding the map, just like he said.

Now losing secret states

 

[eBay Huckster]

I mean eventually we are going to have to pay it back right?

i mean, t-bonds get "paid back" to their holders 10-30 years after their issuance by default

This thread has a problem, and yes, I'm implicating you, with giving MMT responses to questions that have widely accepted answers in neo Keynesian economics.

No debt isn't a problem. This is because of debt to gdp ratio, which historically isn't too high, and globally pales compared to Japan. So if Japan hasn't exploded, with like 200% debt/gdp, why should we, when people trust American debt more than its Japanese counterpart.

Anything anyone says about printing money and using taxes to slow down inflation is spitting unproven fringe economics. They don't think interest rates have any effect on inflation because of straight IS/LM curves. That means they're crazy.

+1

 

[Kid Heart]

538 now has AZ dem lean on polls only and SC lean on now cast

Trump now sub 5% win chance on now

Woah. Originally I thought there was no chance of a landslide even with Trump as the nominee, but if this holds true until the end of August I might just have to change my mind.

 

[whyamihere]

If it looks likely that SC will go to the dems in a few months I think it will be interesting to see if hilary winning that state has any effect on the senate and house races there.

I believe there's an SC seat that Dems are targeting aggressively as a sleeper seat. SC-03?

 

[Skiptastic]

Clinton winning the white college educated women vote by 30% (which Romney won by 6%). We may have a new Democratic constituency.

Just wait: Republicans will claim Democrats want to have free college education/make college affordable simply so they can grow their base of voters, just like how they want amnesty for illegal immigrants. There will then be a GOP led backlash against college.

 

[Plinko]

Just heard that Roger ailes may have used Fox news money for spies against his enemies.


HAHAHAHAH

From where? This would be huge.

We really are going to win by a potential landslide, aren't we?

Way, way too early.

 

[RustyNails]

I agree with how someone said this is a solidified lead since the election is now "real" to people following the conventions. It just so happens Trump absolutely shit the bed just as the election was becoming "real" to a large swathe of the electorate, and that's going to be a hard thing to unbake. I'm still skeptical we'll end up in November at anywhere near these kinds of GE leads, but if we are, OMG, I will literally die from dehydration through osmosis given all the salt that evening from the GOP election party.

It's real in the sense that the fundamentals are not going to change barring a surprise of course. Maybe she'll lose a couple of points and Trump will gain a few, but the trend probably wont change. Whats more difficult for Trump is that one of the recent polls suggested that the undecided pool is mostly lean H.

 

[Rebel Leader]

From where? This would be huge.

CNN

 

[teiresias]

Just wait: Republicans will claim Democrats want to have free college education so they can grow their base of voters, just like how they want amnesty for illegal immigrants. There will then be a GOP led backlash against college.

How dare Democrats support policies that help people to get them to vote for them.

 

[benjipwns]

Just label and Trump's whole plan as Brownback economics. done

You'd first have to explain what a Brownback was and what his economics were and what a Kansas is.

 

[TheLostBigBoss]

I agree with how someone said this is a solidified lead since the election is now "real" to people following the conventions. It just so happens Trump absolutely shit the bed just as the election was becoming "real" to a large swathe of the electorate, and that's going to be a hard thing to unbake. I'm still skeptical we'll end up in November at anywhere near these kinds of GE leads, but if we are, OMG, I will literally die from dehydration through osmosis given all the salt that evening from the GOP election party.

Question now is . . . how much longer does the GOP hold the Garland nomination hostage?

If we have margins near this during the elections and Clinton nabs GA,AZ while turning Texas and SC into battleground states you will be seeing decade long members of the GOP witness the absolute destruction of their party right before their eyes.

I still cant beleive top GOP officials are still backing Trump, I am dumbstruck by thr inability for these people to see the consiquences of backing this man.

 

[whyamihere]

States we need polls from: Montana, Alaska, South Carolina, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas.

 

[BlastProcessing]

South Carolina!?

What's next, Texas is a battleground state?

 

[Beer Monkey]

I still cant beleive top GOP officials are still backing Trump, I am dumbstruck by thr inability for these people to see the consiquences of backing this man.

It's beautiful. So much fodder for opposition ads in 2018 and 2020.

Revoke your endorsement or be labeled "Trump Supporter" for years to come.

 

[mo60]

I believe there's an SC seat that Dems are targeting aggressively as a sleeper seat. SC-03?

I think that is the most realistic downballot seat for them to try to get if it looks likely that SC is going to end up as another battleground state in this election. That senate seat is pointless to try to get since the republican that holds that seat is probably to popular there.

 

[Basileus777]

States we need polls from: Montana, Alaska, South Carolina, Mississippi, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota, Texas.

Nebraska by CD too. Even the 1st CD.

 

[Meguro]

I have a little question for you, PoliGAF:

Is there any easy way to watch something or follow something live on election night for someone outside the US?

This'll be the first US election night I could follow live and I'd like to "be there", as weird as that sounds.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Just heard that Roger ailes may have used Fox news money for spies against his enemies.


HAHAHAHAH

Just saw this on CNN. Neat.

 

[User 463088]

I think the GOP support deadline is Labor Day. If he can't show some traction towards equalizing this, I think that's when we start seeing GOP elected officials begin the actual distancing of themselves from Trump. If she goes into Labor Dy with a 4-5 point lead, they'll jump ship hard and fast.

 

[GiantEnemyGoomba]

Absolute best case is over 400 now.

What am I missing then?

 

[User 463088]

I have a little question for you, PoliGAF:

Is there any easy way to watch something or follow something live on election night for someone outside the US?

This'll be the first US election night I could follow live and I'd like to "be there", as weird as that sounds.

It will be all over the major American networks. Usually, there's a Fox News live stream on YouTube, I believe. (If you want to watch video). The New York Times will also live blog it, as will places like 538. I'm sure that night we'll post a link to a live stream in whatever OT thread is made.

 

[benjipwns]

I still cant beleive top GOP officials are still backing Trump, I am dumbstruck by thr inability for these people to see the consiquences of backing this man.

It's beautiful. So much fodder for opposition ads in 2018 and 2020.

Revoke your endorsement or be labeled "Trump Supporter" for years to come.

You don't get to the general if you can't win a primary.

 

[Holmes]

Is there any historical data on when people tend to make up their minds? I'm wondering if we can tell how fixed people's opinions are by group. Which electoral groups tend to change their minds more often, etc?

I think people's notions of the candidates are now baked in, but not necessarily people's voting choices. So while Clinton's double digit lead can be seen right now as being soft, a good (or even decent) debate performance can turn it into a solid double digit lead. Paired with the superior ground game, and...

 

[Basileus777]

What am I missing then?

Alaska, Montana, even Indiana if we're talking about these margins.

 

[Brawndo Addict]

You'd first have to explain what a Brownback was and what his economics were and what a Kansas is.

I read the post as saying that making Kansas a battleground is as easy as saying X.

 

[Beer Monkey]

You don't get to the general if you can't win a primary.

Civil War.

 

[B-Dubs]

What am I missing then?

Utah. If that Mormon guy who just announced can get on the ballot out there, with a Romney endorsement, it could split the state and allow a Clinton win.

Indiana would probably flip with the margin's we're seeing, even without a spoiler.

 

[benjipwns]

It will be all over the major American networks. Usually, there's a Fox News live stream on YouTube, I believe. (If you want to watch video).

And this would be the one to pick if a Hillary victory is most likely.

If on the other hand, the reddit and facebook subscribers turn out as expected and it's a 49 state Trump landslide, you'll want the MSNBC live stream.

 

[Basileus777]

Utah. If that Mormon guy who just announced can get on the ballot out there, with a Romney endorsement, it could split the state and allow a Clinton win.

Nah, recent polling has Trump up 12 in Utah.

 

[whyamihere]

Also from that Monmouth poll:

Importantly, Clinton continues to maintain a lead in the swing states – ten states that were decided by less than seven points in the 2012 election. She holds a 42% to 34% edge over Trump in these states, which is similar to her 46% to 39% swing state lead last month.

From their methodology:

Swing States (<7% margin): CO, FL, IA, NV, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA, WI

Bye!